State of the Region Address: West

Because the inaugural regional rankings are forthcoming this week, and most teams’ Spring Breaks are now completed, I thought it was a good time for a state of the region address. I’m gonna start by taking a dive into the mess of results that make up the individual qualifiers in both singles and doubles, and then do a brief little ditty on the top 10 or so teams in the region (based on how I think they’ll be ranked by the ITA committee). If I don’t mention your team, it’s not because I don’t love you. It’s because I have a very limited knowledge of your exploits and you deserve to be covered by someone who knows (like regional). Let’s start with this whole individuals mess.

Here are the top 8 in no particular order followed by other contenders.

Singles

1. Niko Parodi (CMS) – best player on the best team. This is a no brainer. Though he got a late start to the season, he’s already notched Johnny Wu, Luke Tercek and Nicholas Chua this Spring. He also has helpful fall regional wins over some folks you’ll see later on this list: Glenn Hull, Chase Lipscomb, and Arthur Fagundes. He can book his ticket to Tennessee.
2. Glenn Hull (CMS) – this one is also pretty straightforward. Hull hasn’t lost a singles match this Spring season (doubles, not so much) with wins at #1 singles over Daniel Levine (CMU), Mark Fallati (Swat), Michael Arguello (Brandeis), and Ben Rosen (Bates). You’ll be seeing him in Chatanooga.
3. Daniel Morkovine (CMS) – it’s highly likely that Mork will be joining his teammates at nationals. The senior won the fall tournament with a key win over Parodi and has lost just one match playing a mix of #2 and #3 singles this Spring (kudos, Kyle Wolfe).
4. Jake Yasgoor (PP) – Yasgoor has felt like a perpetual #2 singles player, but boy has he really turned it on this spring. He’s won his last 9 matches at #1 singles (all against ranked opponents). That’s effing incredible. You’ll be seeing him in Chatanooga, likely as a seed.
5. Chase Lipscomb (Redlands) – At first glance, it looks like Lipscomb isn’t having the same level of success he had in his freshman campaign, but you have to remember that he had to work his way to the #1 spot by beating everyone last season. His loss to Whittier’s Andrew You hurts, but wins over Shastri (Williams), Chen (Wesleyan), Reed (Colby), and Arguello (Brandeis), among others should have him dancing in May.
6. Arthur Fagundes (UT-Tyler) – Fagundes is another guy who will almost certainly be dancing this year. The dude dominated the SW ITA, picked up a big win over Spencer Watanabe (GFU) in the play-in match, and has been en fuego this Spring. He’s not a lock because he hasn’t faced a ton of regional competition, but last weekend’s win over Snovely (Southwestern) certainly helps.
7. Spencer Watanabe (George Fox) – Watanabe made a splash this Fall when he mowed down all comers en route to the Northwest ITA title, and he hasn’t lost a singles match against DIII competition this spring, including a win over Clark “The Shark” Winninger from Pacific and Attia from Lewis and Clark. Right now, he’s in, but his schedule isn’t doing him any favors. He might need to beat Hewlin and make a nice run at the Ojai to actually make it to Tennessee.
8. Zach Hewlin (Whitman) – This is where things really start to get dicey. Hewlin lost to LC’s #2 (Michael Brewer) in the fall, but he hasn’t lost to conference competition yet this spring, and a key win over Graham Maassen is keeping him afloat right now. Despite his 0-3 Stag-Hen, I think the junior is sitting just inside the bubble atm. A big Texas weekend will determine his fate.

The Contenders (also in no particular order):

1. Andrew You (Whittier) – You is sitting right on the bubble right now after a big win over Chase Lipscomb. He also has a nice regional win over Braaten (CLU), but losses to Vassar’s and Haverford’s #1’s are no bueno. He’ll have plenty of chances in the SCIAC later this season.
2. Chas Mayer (Trinity) – It seems weird not to have a Tiger in the top 8, but Mayer hasn’t really had many chances to make an impression this season. He started off playing #2 behind Lambeth. Since he’s been at #1, he’s lost to Bessette (Amherst) and Al Houni (GAC). He still has plenty of chances coming up now that he’s in the top spot.
3. Ranson Braaten (CLU) – Braaten made a splash this Fall by beating Jake Berber (CMS), and he has a number of good wins this spring, but regional losses to Andrew You (Whittier) and Ruthwick Pathireddy (Caltech) are really hurting him.
4. Clark Wininger (Pacific) – The dude’s got winning right there in his name. He started off the season with W’s over Al Houni (GAC), Bello (PP), and Attia (LC), but losses to Hewlin and Watanabe have him on the outside looking in right now.
5. Parker Wilson (Redlands) – Wilson is sitting in the #2 singles players’ No-Man’s-Land right now. He beat Maassen and a number of other talented #2’s, but he has a slew of losses to go with his wins. I could see him slotting in anywhere from 8-12 in the initial rankings. A forthcoming match against Glenn Hull will be a massive opportunity.
6. Niko Snovely (Southwestern) – Snovely is a guy who’s been dangerous for a while, but he’s been very unfortunate schedule-wise this season. He has wins over Whittier and CMS, but not against either teams’ top players, and now he has losses to Fagundes (UTT) and Braaten (Cal Lu). I don’t see him making it this season.
7. Chad Stone (Cruz) – Stone already has a loss to Braaten (CLU), but has chances against Lipscomb and Yasgoor later this week. He needs to win both and make a run at the Ojai to have a chance to make nationals. The NCAA requires 10 DIII matches to qualify for nationals, and he will have played 8 going into Ojai. No pressure.
8. Graham Massen (PP) – I include him here out of respect for his amazing 2016 season, but after five consecutive losses at #2 singles, I don’t think he has a legitimate chance of making the tournament in singles this season.

Doubles (Clusterf***): there once was a time when I would regale you all about how great the West region is at doubles, and how all the other regions pale in comparison. This is not that time. Many traditional doubles powers have been on the struggle bus this year, and we’ve got a whole bunch of teams that will be jockeying for 3 spots. I think it’s very possible that another region will sneak in and take the West’s 4th.

1. Morkovine/Gordy (CMS) – Mork and Gordy won the fall ITA and are 6-2 at #1 doubles this season. They’re the closest thing the West has to a doubles lock at this point, but they’ve got a lot of regional competition ahead of them.
2. Lambeth/Tyer (Trinity) – Lambeth and Tyer won the Fall ITA and advanced to the finals of Fall Nationals. They’ve picked up a number of notable wins at #1 this season (Emory, Case Western), and are in the drivers’ seat for a nationals berth.
3. Bello/Simonides (PP) – since becoming a pair after Indoors, these big-serving seniors are 6-3 at the #1 spot with a key win over Redlands.
4. Dulle/Ly (Redlands) – these upperclassmen have had a very up-and-down season, and a loss to PP’s #1’s hurts, but they’ve got plenty of good wins and are certainly in the mix.
5. Wight/Wininger (Pacific) – with wins over Whitman, George Fox, and LC, these Boxers have built quite a resume, but a loss to a PP team that is no longer together has them on the outside looking in right now.
6. Watanabe/Namba (George Fox) – these guys won the NW ITA, but consecutive losses to LC and Pacific’s #1s mean they’re out. They’ll have a chance to play their way in at the Ojai.
7. Stone/Dugan (Cruz) – Because of their schedule, these two need consecutive wins over PP’s and Redlands’ #1s to even be considered a contender for nationals. Even then, they’ll need to win at least two matches at the Ojai simply to have played enough matches to qualify (as referenced above).
8. Hoeger/Carter or Jivkov/Hewlin (Whitman) – Both teams have some good resume wins, but Hoeger/Carters’ loss to Pacific may doom them, and Jivkov/Hewlin didn’t exactly tear it up at the Stag-Hen. If one of these teams goes 2-0 in Texas and undefeated in the conference, they might sneak in.

If you’re from Tyler/Whittier/CalLu/Caltech/SW/LC, know that you’re not included on this list right now because you’re probably gonna be ranked a little lower, but doubles is crazy, and you still could play your way in. Good luck.

On to the teams. The following is how I think the teams will be ranked in the ITA rankings based on the committee’s previous predilections (they tend to take the old rankings and move teams around based on in-region results). While I believe UC Santa Cruz to be better than either LC or Pacific, because the Slugs are currently ranked behind both teams, I believe they will stay that way. Pirate fans, I know you must be thinking, “We were like three games away from beating Tyler, how could we be ranked four slots below them?” I refer to my previous comment about regional results. Almost-wins count for very little.

1. CMS – Even casual blog readers will know the story on the Stags by now: weak doubles, ridiculous singles. We expected a strong Stag singles lineup, but surprising freshman Daniel Park and a healthy Patrick Wildman has turned them into, to borrow the Guru’s words, “trendy national championship pick.” They’ll need to fix up their doubles to win it all, and placing Parodi at #3 is a nice place to start. Another question that remains is whether or not they can win on the road, which is something we’ll find out later this week when they travel to Texas to play Trinity, Middlebury, and Emory.

2. Redlands – Redlands will probably have taken the second spot in the regional rankings, but they’re probably not feeling great about where they stand after consecutive NESCAC losses to Wesleyan, Bowdoin, and Williams. Their singles lineup has been very solid from top to bottom. With no true stars, they are capable of exposing other teams’ weaknesses. Doubles is the same story, but the lack of reliable points ultimately doomed them against top competition. Looking forward, they’re stuck out in the cold Pool C-wise, but the road to the Elite Eight was always going to go through Claremont for them anyways. Now they just have to do it twice.

3. Whitman – Whitman got off to a great start this season, and their home win over Pomona-Pitzer will likely have them ranked third in the region (though ranked behind the Hens nationally). They’ve already got seven ranked wins this season, including a crucial road conference win against Lewis and Clark. The Case loss has to stick in their craw, but the most important matches are coming up. It’s likely that the highest ranked team out of Whitman/Trinity/Tyler will avoid the California regional, so they need to beat both Tyler and Trinity in Texas to avoid that ignominious fate. Then they need to take care of business in the conference.

4. Pomona-Pitzer – To me, this has been a disappointing season for the Sagehens. They’ve got 5-4 losses to Wash U and Redlands and 6-3 losses to Williams, Bowdoin, and Whitman keeping them out of Pool C. A couple nice victories over Case Western and Tufts mean they’ll stay in the top 15, but with five seasoned senior starters, I was really hoping for another top 8-type season. They can still pull it off, however. Like Redlands, they always needed to beat CMS to make it to the Elite Eight anyways. Might as well do it twice (and avenge their Redlands loss in the SCIAC semis).

5. Trinity (TX) – As the Guru mentioned, the Tigers are in the midst of a second consecutive season outside the top 10, but they still got a lot of season in front of them. Right now, wins over Kenyon (x2) and Gustavus are keeping them in the top 20. If they can get their doubles going, they have a shooter’s chance at an upset over Midd/CMS/Emory (not super likely, but possible). After that, wins over Tyler and Whitman could move them back into the top 15 and help them avoid the California region. They have to stay wary, though, because the Pirates from Southwestern are creeping up in their rear-view in the SCAC.

6. UT-Tyler – Despite losing their beloved coach, the Pats looked really strong in the early-going with a 7-2 drubbing of Kenyon. They played both Amherst and Middlebury relatively close (both 6-3, but two of the least-dramatic 6-3 wins I’ve seen), but a razor-thin victory over Southwestern tempered expectations. Nevertheless, Arthur Fagundes is looking stellar, and their doubles is as strong as ever. Look for a victory over GAC on Friday to lift them into the top-20. After that, the Trinity/Whitman tri will be crucially important, as I’ve already mentioned twice.

7. Lewis and Clark – It’s a little unfair to put this State Of The Region Address out when the Pios are in the midst of a very well-scheduled spring break. They have two huge matches against Denison and Kenyon today and Wednesday, respectively, which represent the best chance a NWC team has had to notch a ranked win against a non-NWC team in recent memory. Otherwise, they finally got over the hump and beat Pacific to take the #2 spot in the conference and pushed Whitman on their home courts. They have to feel like they have a chance to upset the Whitties and make their first national tournament since the Eisenhower administration later this year.

8. Pacific – I’m always impressed by how well Pacific develops their players, but the recruiting troubles caught up to the Boxers a bit this year. They temporarily dropped to #3 in the conference after a loss to LC (though they have a chance to avenge that loss on the road later this year), and yesterday’s loss to NCW may knock them out of the national rankings. Clark “The Shark” Wininger remains a fringe nationals contender, and they could easily make the finals of the NWC tournament and give Whitman a run for their money, but relative to recent successes, this is a down-ish season.

9. UC Santa Cruz – Have we talked about how terrible Santa Cruz’s schedule is enough yet? I’m sensing we have. These guys have top-25 talent, but unless they upset Redlands/Pomona-Pitzer in the upcoming days, they’re going to end up looking at the rankings the way Joe Biden looks at the presidency right now thinking, “That Should’ve Been Me!” Anyways, you gotta take your shots when you got ’em. Without a SCIAC upset, the Slugs are destined for a Pool B berth, a first round date with CMS, and another summer spent trying to save the program.

10. Southwestern – With several solid recruiting classes in a row, Coach Porter and the Pirates nearly arrived a season early this weekend when they fell in a tantalizing 5-4 match to UT-Tyler. They still have three chances to move into the top 30 (or 20): one later this week against Gustavus, another at the end of the season against Trinity, and a third in the SCAC championships. Nevertheless, their 6-3 win over Whittier might be enough to keep them at the bottom of the top 40 at the end of the season. Another solid recruiting class will make them regular members of the top 30 in no time. Hats off to the Pirates.

And I guess it won’t let me add any more pictures. There you have it, West region fans! Everything you wanted to know and then some. I will be accepting all snark in the comments. Hope you’re having a good day!