State of the Region Address: NE Part I

Ok, working from the top-down I’ll give a team-by-team rundown. In order to qualify for analysis, a team must have one win over a blog ranked team (sorry Babson, TCNJ, and St. Lawrence).

1) Amherst

Initial reaction: No real surprises here. The Jeffs have been the class of the region for the entire season.

Best Win(s): #6Hopkins & #7CMU (both in the fall)

Worst Loss(es): #1 CMS

Looming Match(es): 4/20 Williams, 4/26 Midd

Outlook: Amherst has a clear-cut path to a top 3 seed at Nationals. Beat the teams ranked below them, and they’re set. That is, of course, easier said than done, especially when they have yet to play the #’s 2, 3, and 4 teams in the region. Amherst usually relies on its depth, but Dale has been especially strong at #2 for them this season. More on him to come later…

2) Williams

Initial reaction: In a virtual tossup with Midd, the defending national champs earn a proxy spot for their achievements from 2013.

Best win(s): #11 Pomona

Worst loss(es): #1 CMS

Looming match(es): 4/11 Midd

Outlook: Williams scored a couple of clutch wins in Cali to keep their lofty status, but the rankings committee has begun to notice that the Ephs are not the same team from last season. They have fallen behind Amherst (rightfully) and have a gigantic match against Middlebury later today. As I said in the preview, dubs should be the key to that match. If Williams’ young guns can clear the Panthers, they won’t lose hold on this spot for the rest of the season.

3) Middlebury

Initial reaction: Still no surprises, I would’ve argued the Panthers’ case harder if they had been on the other end of a 5-4 result against Emory.

Best win(s): #13 Kenyon

Worst loss(es): #4 Emory

Looming match(es): 4/11 @Williams

Outlook: The Panthers lose out on the #2 spot due to Williams’ reigning title, but have a chance to knock the Ephs down a pet this weekend. Middlebury should be solid at all spots, but their top-dawgs did look a little shaky against the Eagles. Midd will need Johno, PC, and BJ to anchor their top 1/2 , and give Courtney, Smolyar, and Frons a chance to show the country just how talented this team really is.

4) Bowdoin

Initial reaction: Bit of a drop between 3&4…

Best win(s): #11 Pomona

Worst loss(es): #7 CMU, #4 Emory

Looming match(es): 4/12 @Tufts, 4/13 Amherst

Outlook: For all the crap the writers and I have been giving the Polar Bears, they haven’t actually lost a match in almost a month. I included the Emory loss in the bad losses section because of they way that Bowdoin lost that match. Realistically this team has 3 losses and they’re all to top #7 teams. HOWEVER! If Bragg is not healthy, I’m putting the Polar Bears on upset-alert for their Saturday matchup with the Jumbos. I’ll be writing a weekend preview tomorrow night where I’ll further breakdown that match, but Bowdoin needs their #1 back in a bad way.

5) NYU

Initial reaction: How are they still this high???

Best win(s): #31 Skidmore, #32 Brandeis, #38 Stevens

Worst loss(es): #41 Rochester

Looming match(es): 4/11 Vassar

Outlook: The Violets were one of the more pleasant parts of the early ½ of the season. Steven Wu has been an absolute stud, and NYU has notched some nice nail-biting wins. HOWEVER! Although this team has beaten teams who used to be ranked, NYU has 0 wins over the Blog’s top 30. I wish this team would schedule a few NESCAC teams, because that would provide us with a barometer as to just how good they really are. The Rochester loss really hurts the Violets, and has brought the NYU doubters (myself included) back to the forefront.

6) Skidmore

Initial reaction: So much wasted talent. So little time.

Best win(s): #36 Swarthmore

Worst loss(es): #30 RPI, #39 NYU

Looming match(es): 4/13 @Stevens

Outlook: Do you remember that Disney movie Oliver and Company? It was somewhat based off of Oliver Twist. Well basically the movie revolved around this little orphaned cat named Oliver and his adventures around New York City. Here’s my question, what happens when you remove the cat from the movie? Sure there is plenty of other talent, Dodger was hilarious, Fagin was generous and kind, Jenny was sweet as can be. There was plenty else going on in that movie, but the thing that connected all the characters was little Oliver. Bring back Oliver, and you might have a movie worth watching.  WHY SHOULD I WORRY? WHY SHOULD I CAREEEEEEEE

7) Trinity Ct

Initial reaction: Well, at least they’re not lower.

Best win(s): #23 Tufts, #26 Wesleyan

Worst loss(es): #27 Denison, #31 Skidmore (fall)

Looming match(es): 4/12 @ Brandeis, 4/26 Bates

Outlook: What’s that? You mean ONE of my preseason predictions actually came true? I have to take credit for this one, all the others have gone flying out the window like Cardinals. Trinity is back in the picture, and at this point in the season is in the drivers seat for the 5^th spot at NESCACs. The Bantams will need to avoid a slipup vs. Bates at the end of the year, but somehow avoided playing Colby in the one year they ended up relevant.

8) Tufts

Initial reaction: 8^th?? A mis-ranking of Jumbo sized proportions.

Best win(s): #26 Wesleyan, #27 Denison

Worst loss(es): #15 GAC, #28 Trinity Ct,

Looming match(es): 4/12 Bowdoin, 4/15 @Bates, 4/25 Colby

Outlook: This Tufts team is definitely better than 8th in the region. They have a huge match with Bowdoin this weekend (see my forthcoming weekend preview) and if Bowdoin remains Bragg-less then the Jumbos might be able to pull of the upset. It wouldn’t hurt to have Telkedzhiev or Glickman back in the lineup either. The Trinity loss really hurts the Jumbos, and leaves them in a somewhat precarious position in terms of a NESCAC birth. If Tufts beats Bates and Colby then they’re in for sure, but that’s easier said than done. Tufts actually matches up well with both Bates and the Colby Reid’s, as the Jumbos are deeper than both Maine teams. If Tufts does make NESCACs, don’t expect them to just lie down in the 1st round. When healthy, this team could present a big issue to the higher seed that overlooks them (Bowdoin? Williams?)

9) Wesleyan

Initial reaction: It’s a sad day in D3Northeast land

Best win(s): #29 Colby

Worst loss(es): #23 Tufts, #28 Trinity Ct

Looming match(es): 4/12 Midd, 4/27 Bates

Outlook: Oh how wrong can one man be? It seems I’ll never hear the end of my apparently foolish preseason pick. Wesleyan has the talent but can’t seem to find the right fit at this point in the season. With their 5-4 loss to Trinity Ct yesterday, they are very much on the outside of NESCACs looking in. The Cards will need to not only beat Bates, but also either Amherst or Midd if they’re want to make the post-season. But once these guys mature, whoa baby. Look out for the Cards in 2015. NCNCNCNC. Just kiddin D3West, just kiddin.

10) Brandeis

Initial reaction: DropDemGavels lower in the rankings

Best win(s): #29 Colby

Worst loss(es): #39 NYU

Looming match(es): 4/12 Trinity Ct, 4/18 Tufts, 4/19 Bates, 4/21 MIT

Outlook: Holy crap, Brandeis has a couple of huge opportunities in the coming 10 days. This is a team that is riding the coattails of their 6-3 win against what was ½ of Colby’s normal team. They have navigated their way through the easier part of their schedule with only minor hiccups, and now have the chance to really move up in the regional rankings. They take on 4 teams who should all be favored against the Judges, even though Bates and MIT are ranked lower within the region, though all 4 are definitely winnable matches. If Brandeis can split those 4 matches, they will likely end the season as a top 10 team in the region, which should be seen as a great accomplishment considering they started the year way down at #15.

11)Colby

Initial reaction: Is it possible that they’re too low?

Best win(s): #34 Bates, #40 UWW

Worst loss(es): #24 DePauw, #26 Wesleyan, #32 Brandeis

Looming match(es): 4/17 Bowdoin, 4/25 Tufts

Outlook: If you had told me this at the beginning of the year I’d have told you to go home because you were obviously drunk. This has been the best year in Colby Tennis history, and yet, I still feel as though this team could be a bit better. The emergence of Carl Reid has been one of the most positive parts of my year, and with 3 years ahead of him, he could become a serious recruiting tool. When Colby beat Bates my jaw hit the floor and I fell in love with this team. I would love to see them make a run into NESCACs. To do so, the Mules will have to beat Tufts, which should force some sort of odd tiebreaker between Tufts, Trinity Ct, and Colby for the final 2 spots. A longer shot would be for the Mules to upset a Bragg-less Bowdoin team, though I don’t see that happening.

12) Bates

Initial reaction: No Crampton, no Bettles, big problem.

Best win(s): #37 MIT

Worst loss(es): #22 Whittier, #29 Colby

Looming match(es): 4/15 Tufts, 4/19 Brandeis, 4/23 Bowdoin, 4/26 Trinity Ct, 4/27 Wesleyan.

Outlook: The Bobcat’s NESCACs chances were severely hurt by their loss to Colby, however they still have plenty of opportunities to make up ground. The first comes on Tuesday when they host Tufts (they do play Amherst on Saturday, but see weekend preview for that one). Bates will need to beat 2/3 of Tufts, Trinity Ct, and Wesleyan if they are to have any shot. However, that scenario would likely leave them needing help. If all else fails, Berg/Planche still have a shot at NCAAs (see below).

13) RPI

Initial reaction: Coulda Woulda Shoulda

Best win(s): #31 Skidmore, #38 Stevens

Worst loss(es): #22 Whittier, #37 MIT (fall), #42 Vassar

Looming match(es): Liberty League Tournament 5/3 – 5/5

Outlook: Like Brandeis and Colby, RPI is a team that has already exceeding expectations this year. With the addition of LaBarre and some solid senior play, the Engineers have turned in one of the program’s best seasons ever. However, as with the rest of the black hole, RPI has its faults. Every time they try to move back into the top 30, they lose. They have no more crucial regular season matches (sorry boys, you’re not gonna beat Midd) and will need to win their conference tournament to get into NCAAs. On the plus side, I hear they have a gorgeous women’s team…

14) Rochester

Initial reaction: BShap, I love you bro.

Best win(s): #39 NYU

Worst loss(es): #38 Stevens, NR Chapman

Looming match(es): UAA Tournament

Outlook: Rochester has been coming on strong of late, I’d like to think I spurred them on with my C+ grade a few weeks back, but unfortunately they may have hit their ceiling. After a big win over conference foe NYU, Rochester does not have any more chances to improve their regional ranking. They will need to beat St. Lawrence to keep a top 15 ranking, but should have little trouble doing so. I wish the UAA played out 5^th and 7^th place matches. Brandeis/NYU/Rochester could all do some NE positional jockeying.

15) Vassar

Initial reaction: Stop being so snarky with your damn comments

Best win(s): #30 RPI (inflated ranking from D3AS’s general malaise)

Worst loss(es): #31 Skidmore, #32 Brandeis

Looming match(es): 4/11 NYU

Outlook: The Brewers scored a season saving win with a 5-4 victory over RPI last weekend. Cooper was rewarded with a regional ranking, and maybe, just maybe, Vassar is on the rebound. Without the Guzicks it’s been a tough stretch, but if the Brewers can upset the Violets today (for the record, I’m taking NYU 5-4) then they should climb up at least a couple spots in the regional rankings.

16) MIT

Initial reaction: All work and no play makes MIT a bad team

Best win(s): #30 RPI (fall)

Worst loss(es): #34 Bates

Looming match(es): 4/21 @Brandeis, 4/23 @Tufts

Outlook: MIT is going to the tournament either way I’m pretty sure they have not lost a conference match since the NEWMAC was invented. Zhang is always a formidable #1, but the Engineers lack depth in a major way. You might wonder why MIT is ranked so far below RPI even though MIT won the battle of the Engineers. It’s because that results happened way back in the fall, and MIT has not beaten ANYONE else since. 5-4 to a Bragg-less Bowdoin looks like it could’ve been their shot, and now they’ll have to beat both Brandeis and Tufts if they hope to make it anywhere close to the top 10. A disappointing season so far from the Cambridge Cerebrals.

17) Stevens

Initial reaction: Dat Heinrich Maneuver

Best win(s): #41 Rochester

Worst loss(es): #30 RPI, #36 Swarthmore, #39 NYU

Looming match(es): 4/13 Skidmore, 4/27 Bowdoin

Outlook: Heinrich has been the bright spot in an otherwise disappointing year for the Ducks (only losses to Wu, Alla, Lipscomb, and Perez). SIT finished last year at the school’s highest ever ranking, 8^th in the region and 27^th in the country. After a barrage of close losses, the Ducks now find themselves fighting to hang around the top 15. In order to do so, they’ll need a winnable match against Skidmore this weekend. Unfortunately for the Ducks, the rumor is that Loutsenko might be back in the singles lineup this weekend. In tennis, like in life, timing is everything.

 

Because this is already far too long of an article, I’ll be taking a break here.

Check back later today for my NE singles/doubles update.