State of the Region Address: D3West

The rankings are coming out in a couple days, and I’m sure they will reflect another fortnight of positive rankings momentum for the west region. It’s weird because the relative rankings of the teams in each region are in large part determined by a select few inter-region matches. For example, Pomona-Pitzer beating GAC benefits all the West region teams that have beaten Pomona-Pitzer. Anyways, let’s get to the team-by-team.

CMS

Undefeated and frequently untested, everything seems to be going pretty well for the Stags. They responded beautifully to their first DIII deficit of the year, and they’ve done well in the few road matches they’ve played. They’ve also shown that they aren’t reliant on dominant doubles, as they’ve lost at least one doubles match in each of their last five tilts. I think the biggest difference between this year and last year for them is the improved consistency of Warren Wood. As a freshman, he was all over the map, but he has been consistently excellent this year. They’ve also benefitted from a breakout freshman year from Skyler Butts. If there are dark spots, they are Alex Lane and Alex Johnson. Both used to be dominant players at the top of the lineup, who are now struggling to win at 4 and 6, respectively. They’re already national championship favorites, but as Lane continues to improve, watch out! The question remains: can they do it in May when they have to step outside of Bisantz?

Current State: Consensus Best Team in the Country

Cal Lu

Cal Ballou is currently ranked 4th in the country with a whole host of impressive wins under their belt. They’ve beaten Williams, Trinity (x2), and Hopkins just to name their top ten wins. So far, they’ve also pretty much started every match with a 3-0 lead (neither Worley or Ballou have lost in either singles or doubles since Indoors). That’s the good. The bad is that the rest of their lineup isn’t nearly as solid. Their lack of depth basically guarantees that they will play close matches with just about anyone in the top 25. Nichols has been a rock at 3, but he just got thrashed by both Marino and Schommer. Treacy has struggled a bit since coming back from injury, and Millet was never that good to begin with. They got a welcome boost in the addition of Belcher, who appears to be playing well, but he’s still far from being a reliable #6 for a top 10 team. As they move forward, the only real question is whether or not they’ll be able to beat Cruz and CMS on back to back days to get to the Elite Eight. Treacy will get healthy. Nichols will get his swagger back. And their #2 doubles team will return to dangerous form. Will that be enough to get them past the Stags.

Current State: Doing great, thanks. Can we get a different regional?

Trinity (TX)

The Tigers have a tendency to disappear from public perception as soon as their Spring Break ends, but I’m bringing ’em back. They got their signature win at home against Johns Hopkins (another key victory for the West region), and appear poised to make another run at an Elite Eight spot. This year, however, they should be a #1 seed. The fact that Skinner has become a reliable #1 has been the biggest boon to their lineup, but keep in mind that Haugen, DelaFuente, and Mayer all won at 3, 4 and 5, respectively, against Hopkins. El Tigres are as deep as anyone, strong in doubles, and have a reliable #1. If they get hot at the right time, they can beat anyone. Their last big match of the season is on the road against Tyler. That will be very telling as to whether or not they can go to their regional site or KZoo at the end of the year and perform well.

Current State: Flying Under the Radar

UC Santa Cruz

The Slugs rebounded from a disappointing Indoors performance admirably. They trounced Redlands at home then swept a home quad against Tyler, Whitman, and Pomona to put themselves back in the top 10. Then, they went to SoCal and shat the bed. The fact of the matter is that these guys are damn near impossible to beat on their home courts, which is why I think they will beat Cal Lu this Sunday, but they’re pretty vulnerable away from home. If they can beat the Kingsmen, the biggest match of their regular season would end up being their encounter with CMS. A miracle win there might be enough to earn them hosting rights to the Regional of Death, where they would have a better chance of getting to the Elite Eight. I guess they have to beat CMS at CMS eventually, so they might just be better off saving the miracle for may. Anyways, the Slugs start off every match with a 1-0 lead, as their #3 doubles team of Halabi and Goetz is still undefeated. Perhaps they would be better off moving them up and hoping Bettwy and Littlejohn can win more frequently at #3. Their #1 doubles isn’t that strong, but could beat anyone on the right day. In singles, their best spots are #2 (Halabi) and #4 (Rogers). If they were headed to any other regional, I would say they have a pretty good chance of making it to the Elite Eight. Instead, they’ll probably have the daunting task of beating Cal Lu and CMS on back to back days. Yikes.

Current State: But Seriously, can we get a different regional?

UT-Tyler

Hey guys! Remember when I picked the Pats to beat Gustavus and said I would be stunned if they didn’t finish inside the top 25? You all laughed at me, but who’s laughing now!?!?!!? I am. That’s right. Anyways, they were good enough to edge both Whitman and CMU, and that has placed them in the top 15. Their strength, of course, is the top half of their singles lineup where their three transfers – Martinez, Ybarra, and Brown – have been absolutely killing it. Brown and Ybarra also make a formidable #1 doubles team, but if the Pats are going to succeed, they’ll need Singer and Spencer to pick it up big time. Their weakness: depth. If you had any doubt about whether or not Tyler has any diamonds waiting in the rough, take a look at their box score against McMurry. You take out any of their top 3, and the Patriots are immediately incredibly vulnerable. They have a home match against Trinity coming up, but, to be honest, I’m not incredibly optimistic about these guys. They can beat top 10 teams on the right day, but they’ll have a hard time making a deep run because you can essentially neutralize them completely by winning anywhere at the top of either their singles or doubles lineup. We’ll just have to see what happens against Trinity in a couple weeks.

Current State: Dangerous but Vulnerable

Whitman

Basically, the Squirrels did everything they needed to do over Spring Break. They beat P-P and staged a nice comeback against Whittier to remain in the top 20, which should hopefully be enough to keep them away from the West regional. They missed a golden opportunity against Tyler, but to you “Whitman is overrated” diehards, I point out the fact that they did manage to beat BYU-Hawaii, which is something CMS (with a nearly-complete lineup) couldn’t do. The story with Whitman, however, will be whether or not they can do it at the end of the year. They’ve been “upset” in the Round of 32 each of the past two years, something Whitman fans attribute to the travel and the fact that the regional tournament falls on their finals week. Anyways, Malesovas’ emergence has been key to Whitman’s success, as La Cava has been battling injuries all year. Riggs (a transfer) and Roston (a Whitman develope-ee) have been phenomenal. The Squirrels have been bad on the doubles court, which is disconcerting for a usually-strong doubles team, but perhaps they are getting healthy at the right time, as Rivers made his first appearance in the Whitman lineup this past weekend. If they can improve their doubles, they will be a tough out, but it’s hard to see them getting past the Sweet Sixteen.

Current State: Gettin’ Healthy

Redlands

Ah, the classic “ahead of a team in the national rankings, behind them in the regional rankings” move. I’ll never understand why the regional committees and national committees can’t get on the same page, but I think the national committee got this one right. The Bulldogs are very good this year. Their two signature victories came against Case Western and Gustavus, but they’ve had a lot of close calls: Bowdoin, Williams, Middlebury. Just one of those wins would’ve locked them into Pool C, but, as it stands, they still have to beat P-P to get it. If they do, they will be the 3 seed in the SCIAC tournament, and a loss to Cal Lu wouldn’t hurt them. Their top two doubles teams (Leahy/Lipscomb at #1, Hyde/Cummins at #2) are both very good if inconsistent, but the Bulldogs haven’t found an answer at #3. Perhaps they could find a way to work Hunt in there, because the dude is riding a 10-match win streak at #4 singles. Other than that, they don’t have any strengths that really jump out at you. Lipscomb is sometimes brilliant, and the rest of their lineup is strong enough to take advantage of any weaknesses in another team’s lineup. I think these guys will earn the 4th seed in the West regional, but again, they would have to beat CMS and Cal Lu/Santa Cruz on back to back days, and (seeing as how they’ve lost to all three of those teams 7-2 already) I just don’t see that happening.

Current State: Is another regionally really too much to ask?

Whittier

A Whittier parent recently tweeted something along the lines of “please keep underestimating us.” In order to be underestimated, you have to actually win matches others think you will lose. Remember that time I picked you to beat Whitman and you didn’t? I do. Whoops. Anyways, the Poets are obviously very dangerous. They just went 5-4 with Cal Lu with a tiebreaker at #3 doubles and a hobbled #2 singles player, after all. They’re still not about to make it into Pool C this year. They had chances against Case, Middlebury, and Cal Lu, and they missed them all. The only way I see them getting in is if P-P somehow beats Redlands pretty bad, and Whittier takes the #3 seed in the SCIAC on tiebreakers, setting up a home rematch with Cal Lu. That’s the only way they get in. Their fate is completely at the mercy of the streaky Sage Hens. The Poets have all the makings of a good team, but they haven’t been able to put things together yet. Konstantinov has been very good for them at #2, and he has made up half of a very good #1 doubles team. Seneviratne is far from a reliable #1, but he’s capable of winning and is more of a placeholder than anything else. Schommer is the streakiest Poet at #3, but when he wins, Whittier is especially tough to beat. Other than that, Herron and Farmer are solid at the bottom of the lineup (though not solid enough to win a tiebreaker against Whitman when they really needed one), and Shimizu will be good when he gets healthy. This is a very good team that is still waiting for its breakthrough victory. Unfortunately, if they end up as the #4 seed in the SCIAC, they’re out of chances to get that win this year.

Current State: Chip firmly on shoulder

Pomona-Pitzer

Hard to believe the Sage Hens are all the way down at #9 in the region, but that’s where they deserve to be. They’ve lost to seven of the eight teams ahead of them, after all. These guys are a total mystery to me. They have a ton of heart (as exhibited by Wei’s incredible comeback against Whitewater), and can be extremely dangerous (as exhibited by their near-miss with Cal Lu), but sometimes they just aren’t very good at all. Look at their matches with Whitman and Whittier, and it’s like they just go away if their down after doubles. Turn around and look at what they did to GAC, and you just don’t know what team you’re looking at. I’m not sure if it’s possible for the Hens to still make Pool C. I think they would need to beat Redlands 8-1 or something to earn the #3 seed in the SCIAC and then beat Cal Lu. Either way, they’ve responded beautifully to a rough start, and are still a tough team for anyone to beat on the right day. Anyways, thinking about this team makes me kinda sad. They could’ve been so much better with a healthy Weichert, and Sabel and Allinson deserved better send-off seasons, but it wasn’t to be. Here’s to hoping they can finish strong against Redlands. At the very least, they can avenge themselves on the Poets in the SCIAC tournament.

Current State: Proud but Disappointed

George Fox

The West region takes an alarmingly steep drop-off after their top 9 teams. I don’t think it’s too much to say that P-P is a top 20 team, but the Bruins just aren’t even close to the top 30. George Fox’s best win came against Sewanee, a team with a bunch of good recruits that has really struggled this year. Their other opportunity to impress would have been against Vassar, but that match was canceled. Anyways, their bright spot has been freshman Chris Lilley, who was the only player to win against Whitman and hasn’t lost to a DIII player this season. The Bruins also seem to win almost every 3-setter they play, and they have had some good doubles results in the past. We’ll keep an eye on their players, especially Lilley, at Ojai, but if their regular season match is any indication, they’re about to get rolled by Whitman again in their conference tournament. GFU’s only hope is a doubles sweep.

Current State: Looking for a Miracle

UT-Dallas

The Comets are a team that probably deserves a little more attention, but they just haven’t put themselves out there in terms of scheduling. Their best wins have come against a declining Kalamazoo team and a long-since declined Salisbury team. Their only losses have come against UT-Arlington and UT-Tyler. If they had scheduled teams like Whittier, Pomona-Pitzer, and George Fox maybe we would have a better idea of how strong they are, but they’re pretty much a mystery to me. Dustin Foster is undefeated this season, as he recently picked up a very impressive win over UT-Tyler’s Ramon Martinez. Their #2, Casey Clark, has also been very good, but the Comets really haven’t played many people worth mentioning. Though they are probably underrated, UT-Dallas is headed for another beating at the hands of UT-Tyler in the ASC to end their season.

Current State: Also Looking for a Miracle

Occidental

This is the last team I’m gonna write about because I just can’t justify going any deeper. Once again, I cannot figure out why Occidental isn’t better at men’s tennis. I have to believe their coach just doesn’t try very hard. I know they don’t have the best facilities, but they’re a pretty good academic school in Southern California. Oxy is certainly a better school than Whitter, Cal Lu, or Redlands. Why can’t they be good at tennis? Anyways, the Tigers’ best wins this season came against Northwest Conference lackeys Pacific and Whitworth (yikes) and Carleton, but they’ve come close in a number of other matches. They have 6-3 losses to Depauw and Mary Wash to go with 5-4 losses to Brandeis and Trinity (CT). It’s just too bad they couldn’t break through against any of those teams. Jordan Brown and Josh Dancu (who’s name is frequently and hilariously auto-corrected to Dancy in many Oxy box scores) have anchored the team. They’ve come up with a number of good wins at #1 doubles, and each earned singles wins over Depauw, Trinity, and Sewanee. Brown also won against Brandeis, while Dancu fell in a 3rd-set breaker to a very good player in Milo. If they were Chapman, they would be in consideration for a Pool B bid, but they’re in the SCIAC…

Current State: Pluggin’ Away