Well, tennis fans, here we are. Round 1 of the Stag-Hen is officially over, and Round 2 starts shortly, which means you’re going to get my stream-of-consciousness rambling predictions for Round 2. Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to watch or follow much of round one because I had to fill in for a friend in a bungie jumping competition over the Grand Canyon, but I was able to check the scores intermittently, so I have a pretty good idea of what happened.
CMS vs. Wesleyan – Stags started slow, while Wesleyan came out playing inspired tennis. CMS flipped the switch and rolled, but the Cards still put in a valiant effort that bodes well for them this afternoon
Wash U vs. Kenyon – Wash U absolutely creamed a Grier-less Kenyon squad, more or less. It wasn’t even close.
Trinity vs. Whitman – Trinity jumped on Whitman in doubles and hung on with a couple three set wins (seniors > freshmen) at the top of the lineup as the Squirrels came charging back.
Pomona-Pitzer def. Case – The 7-2 box score belies how close the match could’ve been, but the Hens took the drama out of the occasion by sweeping doubles and getting two quick singles wins. Here’s the box
Now for the previews:
Semifinals
CMS vs. Wash U – altogether, I would say Wash U’s morning performance was more impressive, but you know CMS was looking ahead to this one a little bit. Neither opening round match was particularly long, so the teams should be equally fresh. If CMS plays doubles like they did this morning, they’re gonna be down after the first hour; however, I think they’ll pick things up quite a bit and come away with a 2-1 lead. I love CMS’ #2 double team, and I think CMS is deeper, so I’m gonna go with the Stags at 2 and 3. As far as singles goes, Wash U is one of the few teams that can hand with CMS’ depth, but I think the Stags’ Fantastic Four will prove to be too much for Wash U. I think CMS wins at 1, 3, and 4 en route to a tight 5-4 win. Wash U has been really strong at the bottom of the lineup this whole season, and I think they’ll continue that trend with two impressive wins at 5 and 6, but it won’t be enough.
Pomona-Pitzer vs. Trinity – The Hens have been playing inspired doubles as of late, and I think they’ll need to continue that to win this match. Even though they won 2-6 singles this morning, they dropped sets at 5 and 6 to what is probably the shallowest team in the top 15 right now. My faith in the Revolving Door as long since faded, but my faith in Yaz has never been stronger. Basically, I’m saying that I think this comes down to doubles. I don’t think the 2 and 3 doubles teams P-P have been running for the last several matches have lost. Someone has to solve that puzzle eventually, but I’m not sure the Tigers will be that team. I think Trinity takes 1 and P-P takes 3, with #2 doubles being the swing match. Both teams are very much capable of playing #1 for their respective teams, and I think this will be a helluva battle. Ultimately, I’m gonna go with the Hens in the tiebreaker.
In singles, I’m going with Krull at the top after his solid performance this morning. His Chuddliness took a whooping this morning, and I think he’ll keep this one competitive, but it won’t be enough. #2 singles is the other swing match. Yaz is undefeated. Skinner has lost once. It should be a great matchup. I’m leaning Yaz just because of the dominant way he has been winning lately. I think the two teams split 3 and 4, with Mayer taking 3 in another tight three-setter, giving P-P a 4-3 lead by my count. Ultimately, I think the toll of the whole trip will be too much for the Tigers, and Chas will fall at #6 in a tight three-setter to someone like Low or Maassen. Pomona-Pitzer wins 5-4
Backdraw
Kenyon vs. Wesleyan – If I’m a Grier-less Kenyon team, I am absolutely terrified of this match. Wesleyan seems to have upped its doubles game after playing poorly in their first match of their entire season (first match of 2/3 of the lineup’s college career), and their singles just hung with CMS for a little while before bowing out. I think the Lords did themselves a favor by losing so quickly, and they’re not a team that generally loses matches like this. That being said, the Stag-Hen is usually good for at least one big upset, and this match has upset all over it (though so would a potential Wesleyan-Whitman 7th place match). Kenyon didn’t actually play all that bad in doubles this morning, they just faltered at the end, and I think they’ll get things done this afternoon, taking a 2-1 lead over the young Cards at the very least. From there, I think the match will be very close. If Grier doesn’t play, I think the Cards win this thing. They have shown themselves to be incredibly deep, and Kenyon’s depth has been suspect. Without Grier, I think Wesleyan takes 1, 3, 4, and 6 for a 5-4 win. With Grier, I think Kenyon holds on by winning at 2, 3, and 6. 5-4 matches all around!
Whitman vs. Case Western – Here’s a matchup of two teams with proud doubles traditions who have completely floundered with four people on the court this year. I’m gonna kill the suspense by saying that I think Case is going to win this match. Whitman just played their first outdoor match in the sun and 4 out of 6 singles matches went a full 2 out of 3 sets. Once again, Case Western did themselves a favor by losing so fast. It’s also a poor matchup for Whitman. Whitman spent their doubles powder by putting both seniors (apparently the only two guys on the roster capable of winning a doubles match) at the number one spot, where they will probably lose to one of the best doubles teams in the country. From there, it’s a battle of weaknesses, and I think the two teams probably split the bottom two, which will be the first time any of those players will have felt what it’s like to win a doubles match in quite some time. So Case takes a 2-1 lead. They win #1 singles and lose #6 singles in straights (like Whitman did to Trinity this morning), and the rest of the matches will be very close. Whitman now has two freshmen at 2 and 3 singles. Both of them just lost gut-wrenchers this morning, and I think they’ll both lose tough ones this afternoon. Meanwhile, the Quirrels can pull out some dark magic to win at 4 and 5, as Jivkov appears to be playing fairly well. All told, it’s *gasp* another 5-4 match.
The reason I titled this article the way I did is because these matches could go very poorly for the Central region. If both Kenyon and Case lose, I think both them and Chicago (since Chicago only has one big win over Kenyon right now) take a tumble in the rankings. Meanwhile, Wesleyan, Whitman, and Redlands would all rise ahead of them in the rankings, while a Pomona-Pitzer win over Trinity would devalue CMU’s big win, and perhaps drop the Tartans below my West duo as well. I got a little excited just typing that sentence, so it’s pretty obvious what I’m rooting for: CMS, Wesleyan, Pomona-Pitzer, and Whitman LET’S GET IT DONE (sorry, Tigers. I still love you guys. I really do)