Stag Hen Quarterfinal Preview: Part I

STAG-HEN QUARTERFINAL PREVIEW #1

#6 Wash U vs #26 Skidmore 10 a.m.

Wash U Power 6: 73.82. Johnny Wu (12.72), Jason Haugen (12.51), John Carswell (12.42), Radha Vishnubholta (12.12), Bernardo Neves (12.25), Robin Engel (11.80).

Skidmore Power 6: 70.07. Kai Yuen Leung (12.94), Steven Koulouris (12.15), Lucas Pickering (11.39), JT Wynne (10.95), Ted Berkowitz (11.27), Travis Leaf (11.37).

D3Midwest: Here’s basically what happens when a top 10 team faces a team ranked in the 25-30 range:

Scenario 1: The top 10 ten team takes a lead after doubles and wins five of six singles matches, but the 25-30 team has a stud at #1 singles. Routine 7-2 or 8-1 victory.

Scenario 2. The 25-30 team takes a lead after doubles. Everyone goes crazy. The top 10 team wins five of six singles matches, but the 25-30 team has a stud at #1 singles. Everything goes back to normal, as the top 10 team wins 6-3.

Here’s the thing. Wash U is strong in doubles this year. They took commanding 3-0 leads against Carnegie and Kenyon at Indoors. While I think 4-6 singles may need a little work defeating top teams, they shouldn’t have a problem against Skidmore. Even from a UTR perspective, the Bears are much deeper.

Skidmore’s greatest strength is a man by the name of Kai Yuen Leung. Like other top players this season, Leung has the goods to get past Johnny Wu in straights (though I will not be surprised if Coach Follmer moves Wu back to 2). Unfortunately, Skidmore won’t be favored in any other match.  

I’m going to go with Scenario 1. Wash U wins at 1 and 2 dubs and 2-6 singles. 7-2 Wash U.

D3RegAS: Skidmore really hasn’t been tested this year and we really don’t know what to expect. By the looks of it though, I completely agree with Midwest that they will really only be favored in the one singles match. A Kai Yuen Leung and Johnny Wu match would be a fun one to watch, but overall I think the singles lineup will be overpowered by Wash U. Skidmore is one of those teams who is consistently average and usually finishes up in the mid 20s, however the Thoroughbreds are fighters though so I wouldn’t be surprised if they squeaked out a win somewhere in the middle of the lineup. I can’t really see them getting more than 2 matches though against a perennially very strong Wash U, so I’m going to go with Wash U 7-2 with a doubles sweep and and wins at 2, 3, 5, and 6 singles.

Guru: Not that much to say here. Wash U lucked out a little bit drawing Skidmore instead of a Whitman team that currently sits Top 10 in the country. The T-Breds are a good team, finishing between 21 and 25 in the country five consecutive seasons. They are going to make Wash U work, but they are an overwhelming favorite to finish 8th at the Stag-Hen. I think Skidmore may take two or three points and could push a few singles matches to a third set, but the Bears are a little too good to be seriously threatened here.

#13 Pomona Pitzer vs #15 Case Western 9 a.m.

Pomona-Pitzer Power 6: 72.89. Jake Yasgoor (13.02), Graham Maassen (12.33), Anthony Bello (11.85), Josh Kim (11.83), Marko Mandic (11.73), Josh Gearou (12.13)

Case Western Power 6: 70.91. James Fojtasek (12.59), Siddharth Rajupet (11.76), Josh Dughi (11.98), Robert Stroup (11.58), Sam Concannon (11.80), Kevin Dong (11.20)

D3West: So these teams played in the 5th place match of the Stag-Hen just a couple weeks ago, when Case took a 2-1 lead in doubles before watching Pomona-Pitzer sweep them in singles competition (http://itarankings.itatennis.com/TeamMatch.aspx?scseId=344713&page=ts). The problem for the Spartans, which has not magically remedied itself in the last couple weeks, is that they are strongest where Pomona-Pitzer is strongest (1, 5, and 6 singles), but The Pizzeria happens to be a little stronger at those positions. One way to combat this little matchup problem would be to move Concannon up to #4 for a match with one of Pomona-Pitzer struggling seniors (Kim or Bello, assuming they both play and Malech hasn’t worked his way into the lineup). That would only potentially given them an advantage in one match, so if they want to reverse the outcome, they’re just going to have to win some matches that they lost last time around.

I do feel that the singles sweep had a little bit to do with fatigue on Case’s part after an epic battle with Trinity, but I also think Pomona-Pitzer will be ready to play on their home courts and come away with a victory here. I think the combo of Simonides (Sr.) and Bello (Sr.) at #1 will get some good mojo going, and Maassen (Sr.)/Yasgoor (Sr.) will find their groove to give PP a 2-1 lead. The Hens will then top it off with wins at 1, 2, 5, and 6 for a 6-3 win.

D3Midwest: Two very similar teams with very similar strengths and weaknesses. Neither is off to a great start this season, though I am more surprised by Pomona’s struggles than Case’s. With graduation hitting the Spartans hard, it was inevitable that Case would not be in prime form this early. Anyway, with a renovated doubles lineup, I think the Sagehens jump out to a 2-1 lead. The Spartan combo of Fojtasek and Gruber has been a near lock for over a year now, so it’s hard to bet against them. However, Pomona has the advantage this time at 1 with Simonides and Bello. At this point, I think #3 is a toss up, but given this match is on Pomona’s home courts, and Case will be adjusting to outdoors, the Sagehens squeak by.

West hit the nail on the head when analyzing singles; Pomona is basically favored in the spots that Case is strong in. Yasgoor is more experienced than Fojtasek at 1. Mandic and Concannon at five is a toss up, and Gearou has been grinding past his opponents at 6. While Maassen, Bello and Kim have had some lows thus far, each of them won against Case. I don’t think Pomona sweeps singles, but they take the match. Pomona 6-3.

Guru: This is an absolutely huge match for Case Western and I will tell you why. Looking at Case’s schedule, the Stag-Hen is the last regular season opportunity to play a team ranked above them. While it’s possible that Case loses and then beats Whitman or Wesleyan in the backdraw, I don’t think they should count on those scenarios playing out. A win against a direct Pool C competitor is a lot more valuable. If the Spartans fall here, they are virtually locked into the #5 seed at UAAs and face a 100% must win match in the UAA quarters if they want to qualify for NCAAs. Pomona did not do Case any favors by losing to Redlands and Case will be firmly behind both teams if they lose to the Hens for a second time. Pomona beat Case solidly on the road in a tricky late night situation, so the Hens have to be confident that they can do it again, especially after their singles looked very strong against Mary Wash on Thursday. The Spartans are good at bringing 100% in doubles every match, but they haven’t always followed through in singles and I think that’s going to be the key here as I expect Case to take another doubles lead just like Indoors.