Happy Stag-Hen, boys and girls! The next of our preview articles is a closer look at the Quarterfinal matchups. If you’re looking for predictions, you have to wait a couple hours, but we will post a master predictions sheet closer to the start of play today (schedule for 1:000 p.m. EST). This afternoon’s QF matchups are Swarthmore @ CMS, Wash U @ PP, Wes vs Trin Tx, and Bowdoin vs Case. While most of the bloggers believe the first round will be rather chalky, we will get a first look at #5 Wesleyan’s lineup, and see how the teams are adjusting to outdoor tennis. Pomona-Pitzer hosting Wash U likely brings the best chance at an upset, and we will see how Bowdoin does against a ranked opponent for this first time in 2018! Plus, even if the first round passes with a whimper, the teams get to turn around and do it all again later in the afternoon…such a brutal 36 hours!
#32 Swarthmore @ #2 CMS
D3WEST: Why CMS will win–Top to bottom, CMS is a much more talented and confident team than Swarthmore. The Stags are expected to win at each spot and I see exactly that happening. It is extremely tough to beat CMS on their home courts and I think the depth that the Stags possess will be a bit too much firepower for the Garnets in this one.
D3WEST: Why Swat could pull the upset–We all remember what happened in 2012… when Swarthmore was able to pull off an upset of all upsets against the Stags even after being swept in doubles!! Six years later and completely different teams on both fronts, this shows that miracles do happen and if an upset of this magnitude occurred between these two very teams, it can happen again!
D3WEST: Matchup to watch–The match that intrigues me most is the battle of the freshman at #5 singles: Matthew Jacobs (CMS) vs John Lathrop (Swat). Not only am I interested to see how Jacobs will recover from a brutal loss in the finals of Indoors, but Lathrop is the highest rated recruit Swat has received in quite some time. CMS doesn’t lose many matches at home and I see this going the way of Jacobs, but Lathrop could be a hidden gem for the Garnets this season if his junior rankings speak for themselves.
D3RegAS: Why CMS will win– To be quite frank, CMS is just the better team, and I would not be surprised if this was brooms for the Stags. CMS is also at home and could possibly be the best outdoor team in the country, so it would be ludicrous to pick against them in this match.
D3RegAS: Why Swat could pull the upset– Stranger things have happened, and as my pal D3West mentioned, Swarthmore has actually done it before. They have three freshmen in their starting 6 which means one of two things: the freshmen fold like cheap tents under the pressure of playing against the #2 team in the country or they don’t know any better and play the best match of their lives. If the latter happens and Swarthmore can find a way to sneak a doubles point or two, an upset could be brewing in Claremont.
D3RegAS: Matchup to watch– I’m going to go with a fairly cliche choice, but I am pretty excited to see Fallati vs. Parodi. Swarthmore’s senior stud against the Stag’s sophomore sensation. Fallati will be looking to reinsert his name into the NCAA individual conversation after a lackluster junior season and is there any better way to do that than beat one of the best 1’s in the country? Parodi had himself a weekend at Indoors and looks to be back on top after a surprising fall ITA loss to little Krimbill. I think Parodi has the edge, but I never count Fallati out of a match because of his grit and upset potential.
#5 Wesleyan vs #15 Trinity Tx
D3NE: Why Wesleyan will win–Frankly, they are a significantly more talented team. Trinity has really struggled without a stud atop their lineup, and they will need one if they are going to compete with the strength at the top of Wesleyan’s lineup. Coach Fried will have his guys well prepared, and there’s no way they will get caught “looking ahead.” They will be pumped and chomping at the bit considering this is their first chance to back up last year’s program defining season. I’m more worried about the fatigue factor the following day, and given that Wes should be favored at almost every lineup spot I think they take this match without too much trouble.
D3NE: Why Trinity TX could pull the upset–OUTDOOR TENNIS! Two sweeter words have never been spoken for this Trin team. Yes, the Tigers have struggled so far this year, but struggling is still better than absolutely nothing when it comes to preparedness. This is Wesleyan’s 1st match of the season, and possibly the first time they will have been playing outside in months. Trinity is well coached, plays good doubles, and this is the first time we get to see them playing in something close to their ideal conditions. Combine that with the minor uncertainty to the bottom ½ of Wes’ lineup given the injury rumors and you never know.
D3NE: Matchup to watch–#2 singles. This will likely be our first glimpse of #TheFink in a dual match, and he starts with what might be Trinity’s strongest singles position. Jordan Pitts was Trinity’s only singles win against CMU at indoors, taking Downing out in straight sets, and he pushed his match against Redlands to 10-8 in a super breaker. Last summer I believed that Wes would struggle at #2 more than any other singles spot, after Finkelman’s fall it seems he’s up for the challenge. Time to lace up the sneakers and prove it, kid.
D3West: Why Wesleyan will win–Wesleyan will be taking advantage of a weak Trinity team in this matchup. The Cards are one of the most dangerous teams in the country and have cemented themselves firmly into the top 6 in the country. I think they’ll come out firing in this match and take out a team they’re expected to beat.
D3West: Why Trinity TX could pull the upset–If Trinity(TX) can come into this match with a “nothing to lose” attitude and come out hot in doubles, they could put a ton of pressure on Wes. The Tigers have been known to play technically sound doubles; if they can put it together in this instance and head into singles with a lead, we never know what could happen. If the Tigers are able to pull off an upset of this magnitude, they will have to go up in doubles.
D3West: Matchup to watch-–I’ll be interested to see how Hamilton of Trinity(TX) is able to play against one of the best in the country in Steven Chen (Wes). Chen is an extremely talented player and is frankly a lock at #1 for the most part. Hamilton, though he doesn’t have the best record so far this season, is an extremely talented freshman that could come out swinging and disrupt Chen. If Hamilton wants to turn his season around and cement himself as the Tiger’s top dog, a win here would be huggeee!
#7 Wash U @ #14 Pomona-Pitzer
D3Central: Why Wash U will win– Wash U desperately needs to right their season’s ship, and I think that Follmer will instill that sense of urgency in his team. Also, let’s not succumb to the moment, this is the same team that barely lost to a Chicago team that everyone and their mom believes will finish Final Four and they played evenly with one of the best teams in country: CMS. As West points out, Wash U simply has a deeper team with more talent at the bottom, and I think that depth will be the story of this match – they’re the favorites for a reason.
D3Central: Why PP could pull the upset– Pomona needs a doubles lead and realistically they need a doubles sweep in order to complete an upset. Wash U becomes exponentially more favored as you go down the singles lineup, so Pomona needs to win two of the top three spots after sweeping doubles. It’s a tough ask, but Pomona does have the players at the top to do it, and they have the added boost of playing in their backyard. If the Hens can get the coop rocking, then anything is possible.
D3Central: Matchup to watch– I like the Kroot Bellet matchup as well. It will be Bellet’s first big matches for Pomona and Kroot will be looking to redeem himself after being clinched on by Carnegie. But for variety’s sake, i’m going to go with the #1 singles: Johnny Wu (Sr.) vs. Jed Kronenberg (Fr.). Johnny Wu’s game is tailormade to grind in the California heat, and I think that he’ll give the upstart freshmen quite the Stag-hen introduction.
D3West: Why Wash U will win—Wash U is simply a more talented team at the bottom of the singles lineup. PP and Wash U had a brutal 5-4 match last year and the reason the Bears were able to squeak out the win was because of their depth at the #5 and #6 positions. I see the same situation happening in this year’s matchup as last year’s where doubles will end with a team up 2-1, but the Bears will turn on the switch at the bottom of the lineup and run away with this one.
D3West: Why PP could pull the upset-–PP could pull off the upset if they are able to sync in doubles and sweep the Bears. If they are able to head into singles with a 3-0 lead, I definitely see the Hens finding two remaining singles matches for the clinch. Like I said above, I think the Hens have the best chances of winning their singles matches at the top of the lineup (#1-#3)… the Bears are simply too deep and talented for the Hens at the remaining positions. In order for the Hens to pull off this upset, they’ll have to sweep doubles and perform well at the top of their singles lineup.
D3West: Matchup to watch–Bellet and Kroot at #3 singles is going to be an absolute battle. Both of these players are absolute grinds and give very few points away. Bellet is able to put a bit more pace on his shots and can come in and finish points off well at the net. However, Kroot’s consistency from the baseline will surely frustrate Bellet. This match is one to watch and even a blogger’s wisdom can’t predict a winner on this one!
#4 Bowdoin vs #25 Case Western
D3NE: Why Bowdoin will win–Urken, Tercek, Wolfe, Jiang, Roddy. That top-5 won a national championship (granted in some different spots), but that top 5 is really really ridiculously good. In addition they play good doubles not only at the top, but at all three spots. Their #2 and #3 doubles teams lost a total of one game today against Trinity. I believe the switch of Urken and Tercek at #1 and #2 also helps Bowdoin in potential matchups later in this tournament.
D3NE: Why Case could pull the upset–Case has been playing important matches for a month now, if not longer, and this will be Bowdoin’s 2nd match of the season, and their 2nd or 3rd day of outdoor tennis. Much like Trinity, Case is well coached and always plays good doubles. The Spartans are fiery, and if the Bowdoin upperclassmen are looking past the 1st round at potential matchups with Wash U & CMS/Wesleyan it’s possible that Case does the unthinkable. It’s unlikely, actually it’s quite unlikely, but it’s not impossible.
D3NE: Matchup to watch–#4 singles, Jerry Jiang and Rob Stroup. Jiang was back in the lineup for the first time since last spring today against Trinity CT, and while he pulled out a win it was in a superbreaker and he was the only Polar Bear to lose a set. Stroup has played #3 on what appeared to be better Case teams than this one, so the junior slotted in at #4 is a strength for the Spartans. This is probably a match Case will need if they are going to pull the upset.
D3Central: Why Bowdoin will win– I’m struggling to find a spot where I could even reason giving Case the favorite nod. Bowdoin will win this match simply because they’re favored at all nine positions and I can’t foresee five monumental upsets. This team is preparing for the title match…unfortunately for Case, I don’t think that’s the case.
D3Central: Why Case could pull the upset– Case could pull the upset by having an absolutely clinical doubles day and sweeping all three positions to start. Following that sweep they’d need to steal two singles points, between three and six singles would be the most likely. Bowdoin is playing some of their first outdoor tennis of the year -it’s only their second match of the year !! – so a battle-hardened Case could jump out and surprise Bowdoin if they come in a little lackadaisical.
D3Central: Matchup to watch– Matthew Chen vs. Luke Tercek. Tercek is a household name in d3 tennis and for good reason; he’s one of the better players in the country and slotting him at two seems almost criminal. Matthew Chen, Case’s number one freshmen, is on a tear right now winning close match and close match all month, and if Chen has a good showing against Tercek then Case tennis has a bright future. Chen plays an all-court game, so if nothing else the points should be entertaining in my matchup to watch.