STAG HEN FINALS: No. 1 Bowdoin vs No. 2 CMS
When: Saturday, 1:00 p.m. EST
Where: CMS
A tournament title in all its glory hangs in the balance. Will it be the defending champs who hail from just about as far away as possible inside the continental US? Or will it be the the hometown heroes who won the title just a mere two years ago (and have won most of the tournaments before that one too)? Both bring the firepower, both are well coached, and both are good enough to win a national championship. However, only one can win the 2019 Stag Hen…
#3 BOWDOIN (#1 Seed) -NE
QF win: #40 Southwestern 8-1
SF win: #14 Pomona Pitzer 7-2
Why they will win the Finals: They play extremely good doubles, they have championship pedigree, and they never say die. The Polar Bears are the defending champs here for a reason, even if ½ the team is different this year. Once they take a doubles lead, it’s very hard to find four points against them (although CMS has done this in the past).
Why they won’t win the Finals: The Stags are deeper, more used to multiple matches in multiple days in the heat, and playing on their home courts. Don’t let the ITA rankings fool you, we have the Stags power ranked ahead of the Polar Bears at #3 and #5 respectively. CMS should be favored at every spot from #3 on, which makes it tough to pick against the Stags.
MVP (so far): Urken/Jiang. Last year it was Turk/Urk, this year we’re combining them into one big fat JURK. This doubles team should be one of the best in the country, and they’ve sure looked like it so far this weekend dropping a total of two games against the #1 teams from Southwestern and PP. Parodi and Gordy will be a stiffer test, as they won their QF and SF matches today easily (8-4 in both matches), but the senior pair have been the strongest part of a strong team so far this spring.
X-Factor for Finals: Freshmen. Oscar Yang and Evan Fortier are the two starting freshmen in the lineup, and both played long/tough matches today in the semis. Yang fell to Bellet in three full sets while Fortier won his match in a super breaker. These are guys who will be going against tough, albeit totally different matchups. Gordy has been known as a better doubles player than singles guy, but he will be a very tough out at #3. Morris is a newcomer to the lineup as a sophomore and his battle with Fortier/Delman/whomever plays #6 for the Polar Bears will be his first real test likely in a match that hangs in the balance. Both sides will be feeling a strong pressure to perform as both teams are deep and have people fighting for that #6 spot. Whichever newcomer feels the intensity of the moment will be in trouble.
#6 CMS (#2 Seed) – DIIIWest
QF win: #26 Skidmore 7-2
SF win: #12 Sewanee 9-0
Why they will win the Finals: CMS, year in and year out, is a brutally deep and talented team and to take them out on their home courts is an incredible feat for any team. Even a Bowdoin. With such a home court advantage and solid doubles teams, a 2-1 lead heading into singles for the Stags could be enough for them to get to that number 5. We saw an epic Bowdoin/CMS Stag Hen final a couple years back, with CMS coming back from 0-3 down. I don’t know if the Stags are capable this year of winning 5 out of 6 singles matches, however, with a more steady doubles lineup, a Stags lead heading into singles could be enough for the win.
Why they won’t win the Finals: Well, Bowdoin is very very good. They haven’t had even a hint of trouble in their first two matches here, even sitting out some players against Southwestern. Bowdoin players compete with chips on their shoulders and having been in the finals of Nationals the last couple of years (winning once), the Polar Bears are coming into this match with the mindset that they not only can win, but should win.
MVP (so far): The Stag’s singles depth have been put on full display so far. Besides Parodi who hasn’t been playing his best tennis, spots #2-6 singles haven’t seen a set closer than 6-4 which in my book is pure domination. Granted, these are all matches they are expected to win, but to actually follow through and take care of business is a different story. If the Stags can follow up their singles play from yesterday, they should be just fine against a Bowdoin singles lineup that, frankly, struggled against a mediocre PP singles squad.
X-Factor for Finals: Niko Parodi. He hasn’t had the best start to his season (with losses to Miles and Wynne), but if he is able to bring the A game capable of blowing anyone off the court, the Stags would welcome his two points with open arms. If Parodi can step up and take care of his doubles and singles play, providing 40% of the points needed should motivate the rest of the Stags lineup to fill the void and finish off the match.
MATCH BY MATCH
#1 doubles: Urken/Jiang (Bowdoin) vs Gordy/Parodi (CMS)
NE: I will be watching this match tomorrow as each doubles pair represents the toughest team their opponent will have faced so far this season. Plus in case you haven’t noticed I love watching Urken and Jiang. Their contrast in styles is stark but they’re both so good at what they do. They are my early pick to win the NCAA doubles title, so I can’t pick against them here. Bowdoin 8-4.
DIIIWest: Well, Urken/Jiang lost a whopping 2 games yesterday and I don’t see them stepping off the gas in this one. Parodi/Gordy were also able to win both of their doubles with relative ease against Skidmore and Sewanee, but big serving from Urken and solid groundies from Jiang might be too much for the Stags in this one. Bowdoin: 8-5
#2 doubles: Wang/Zhao (Bowdoin) vs Katzman/Liu (CMS)
NE: This is a very young an inexperienced Bowdoin team, but still a damn good team. We saw them bounce back from their tough loss to Southwestern and beat a better PP team in the afternoon. That said, this is probably CMS’ strongest doubles spot, so I like the Stags to get it done here. CMS 8-5.
DIIIWest: Bowdoin’s most susceptible team against (in my opinion), CMS’s toughest team throughout the lineup. Katzman/Liu are a brutal out for any team and I think the Southwestern loss Wang/Zhao sustained yesterday might get the best of them in this one. Wang/Zhao were able to bounce back against a struggling PP team, but Katzman/Liu are going to ride the momentum from their two easy wins yesterday to take this one with relative ease. CMS: 8-3
#3 doubles: Yang/Patel (Bowdoin) vs Burney/Park (CMS)
NE: S-S-S-S-S-S-WING MATCH! I think this spot should be a strength for both teams. We saw two very different matches play out for CMS today, as this team lost to Skidmore in the first round and then came back and blanked Sewanee in the semis. The Polar Bear duo notched two wins and beat that same Skid team who beat CMS in a breaker today 8-3 earlier in the year. I think Bowdoin needs a doubles lead, and I think they get it. Bowdoin 8-5.
DIIIWest: This match could really go either way, but it does make me a bit weary that this same Stags duo lost to Skidmore just yesterday. Yang/Patel played great doubles yesterday and I think they’ll be able to ride that momentum into what would be a swing match heading into singles. Bowdoin: 8-4
#1 singles: Grant Urken (Bowdoin) vs Niko Parodi (CMS)
NE: Before the tournament you look at this matchup and your mouth begins to salivate. A battle at the top in a tournament finals between two of the five best players in the nation?! However, neither guy seems to be in peak form at the moment, which is totally fine because it’s the middle of March. That said, Urken’s less than peak form has been better than Parodi’s and since I would have taken Urk’s peak over Parodi’s peak I’ll stay with my Polar Bear. Bowdoin 6-4, 6-4.
DIIIWest: Urken took down Parodi twice last year, both grueling three set marathons. The semis of Individual Nationals is the match that stands out to me, in that despite a 6-4 in the third win for Urken, he seemed to be in control of that match throughout. With Urken playing good ball and Parodi struggling as of late, I give the edge to Urken in this one. Bowdoin: 6-3, 7-6
#2 singles: Jerry Jiang (Bowdoin) vs Jack Katzman (CMS)
NE: This is a big match for both teams as it’s Bowdoin’s last position of strength and it’s probably CMS’ best spot. The Katz-Man didn’t drop more than four games in either match earlier today, and has looked really really ridiculously good so far this year, winning multiple matches up at #1 as well. Jerry had an outstanding fall, and I was a little dubious about whether or not he could follow it up. He continues to show his penchant for tight matches, but he also continues to do the thing he’s done the most over his Bowdoin career…win. I would be a little surprised if this one doesn’t go the distance. CMS 6-4, 5-7, 6-3.
DIIIWest: Both of these guys can play and either are capable of finding a good day and hitting one another off the court. NE said it best, I think this match will no doubt go the distance and I give the edge to Katzman in a deep third set. CMS 6-2, 3-6, 6-4
#3 singles: Oscar Yang (Bowdoin) vs Julian Gordy (CMS)
NE: I would have liked to have seen Yang vs Liu as we predicted before the Stags made a lineup sway, but we’re still left with a very interesting matchup here as we have a freshman going against a senior captain playing in his final Stag Hen. Yang has been pretty good for Bowdoin so far this year, and took his first loss earlier today 6-4 in the 3rd to Octave (PP). However it’s going to take some real mental toughness to beat Gordy and I want to see it from the freshman first. CMS 7-6 (3), 6-4.
DIIIWest: This is the Senior’s time to shine and I think he’ll do just that. Yang has been on a roll so far this year and I don’t think his loss yesterday to Bellet will derail that momentum. With that being said, I do think Gordy is favored in this one and two close sets is what I am envisioning here. CMS: 7-5, 6-4
#4 singles: Justin Wang (Bowdoin) vs Robert Liu (CMS)
NE: This could be seen as another swing match, seeing as we don’t know all that much about either of these young players at this point in the season, but Liu smoked Noah “Zion” Williamson (Skid) today while Wang lost to Sam Gearou in straight sets. In addition, Wang also played Williamson earlier in the week and beat him 12-10 in a super. Edge to the Stag. CMS 6-3, 6-1.
DIIIWest: Liu might be one of the better 4’s in the country and he has the edge in any match he plays at this position. Seeing that Wang lost to a tricky Gearou makes me think Liu should win this match with relative ease and it seems that NE thinks the same. CMS 6-4, 6-1
#5 singles: Justin Patel (Bowdoin) vs Daniel Park (CMS)
NE: Another big match for both sides, as it’s the only spot in the bottom half of the lineup where either guy has any real experience. JP was one of the best #6’s in the country last year, and Patel won his match against these Stags in the tournament final last year (Matthew Jacobs). Unfortunately for him, Park is also one of the best #5’s in the country and has been ROLLIN so far this year. He easily won both his matches today, moving up to #4 against Sewanee in the semis. Another close one, but Park prevails. CMS 5-7, 6-3, 6-1.
DIIIWest: Park at #5 is an absolute joke. This is another case of CMS just being too deep for Bowdoin at the lower portion of the singles lineup. Patel has anchored the Bowdoin singles lineup for a couple of years now, but I think this match against Park might be one of the tougher tasks for the Polar Bear in recent years. It’s tough to find a player with Park’s caliber at a #5 position and for this reason, I see Park rolling. CMS 6-2, 6-2
#6 singles: Alan Delman/Evan Fortier/Luke Carstens (Bowdoin) vs Casey Morris (CMS)
NE: This revolving door/trial by fire at #6 for Bowdoin is very interesting. We’ve seen Fortier play twice, Delman play once, and Carstens even get a look. Fortier played in the match against PP, and won in a super breaker, but I don’t know if that’s enough for him to play there again tomorrow or if the door will continue on its seemingly endless path and we might see Delman or even Carstens. Whomever it is will have an uphill battle with the Stag who, like the rest of his team, has looked quite strong to start the year. CMS 6-3 6-4.
DIIIWest: NE said it best. Whoever Bowdoin puts at #6, CMS is heavily favored. It is this singles depth that will again shine at this position. Morris is too solid for whoever the revolving door lands on. CMS 6-3 6-2
FINAL SCORE PREDICTIONS:
NE: CMS def Bowdoin 6-3. I hope that I am wrong…
DIIIWest: CMS def Bowdoin 6-3