Stag-Hen Final Day Preview:

Another year, another brutal/fantastic first day at the Stag-Hen. I know it’s late, but we’ve got one more preview for you guys before the tournament’s final day kicks off. Tuesday’s matches are:

1st place: #4 Bowdoin @ #2 CMS
3rd place: #5 Wesleyan vs #7 Wash U
5th place: #15 Trinity Tx @ #14 Pomona-Pitzer
7th place: #32 Swarthmore vs #25 Case Western

We have a match-by-match preview of the championship match below, but first a few overall thoughts on the matchups, working towards the top in classic exhausted blogger blurb form.

7th place: #32 Swarthmore vs #25 Case Western

  • Case played a couple tough matches today, falling 6-3 to both Bowdoin and PP, but Swat was involved in the best match of the tournament so far in a heartbreaking 5-4 loss to Trinity Tx. Expect Case to be the fresher team in the morning.
  • Fallati has been lights out so far this tournament, and I see no reason why that wouldn’t continue tomorrow.
  • Neither of these teams relies on their doubles strength anymore, so whichever team takes a doubles lead should be in really good shape.
  • This could be a battle, with a lot of tired legs out there don’t be surprised if this match ends up going the distance.

5th place: #15 Trinity Tx @ #14 Pomona-Pitzer

  • Trinity is playing their best tennis of the year right now, but they will need it and then some to take down their hosts.
  • Jed Kronenberg is the real deal. The freshman rolled past Johnny Wu and James Fojtasek earlier today, neither of whom is an easy out. He will be heavily favored against Hamilton.
  • Both these teams should be pretty exhausted. PP had to deal with the emotional roller coaster of falling behind Wash U 3-0, and still almost climbing all the way back. Trinity played in the 5-4 barnburner with Swat in their 2nd match of the day. Both teams are used to heat and outdoor tennis, but both teams should be aiming for some quicker points on Tuesday
  • PP is favored to win the match, but Trinity actually presents a tough matchup. Trin’s strength seems to be their doubles and the middle of their lineup, which might well be PP’s weaknesses. PP should be able to defend the coop, but I believe this one will be closer than people think

3rd place: #5 Wesleyan vs #7 Wash U

  • This is all of a sudden a MASSIVE Pool-C match, and one that probably deserves a bit more attention than it’s going to get. While Wes’ loss to CMS doesn’t really hurt them, they way they lost it does not inspire confidence, and given that as of right now Wash U is squarely on the Pool-C bubble a loss to the Bears could be devastating come selection monday.
  • We are going to get a GRINDFEST up at #1 singles. Johnny Wu hasn’t been himself in this tournament, but I’ll be damned if I think he’s gonna get beaten easily in three straight matches. Steven Chen looked good against Trinity, but fell short against Parodi and CMS. With weary bodies, this one could be particularly long.
  • We also get a fun freshman matchup at #2. Both Fink and vdS are coming off tough losses in their 2nd matches today, but Fink at least hung around with Katzman while van der Sman was rolled by Tercek. Given Finkelman’s funky game style, I would not want to play him as my 3rd match in 36 hours.
  • Wesleyan HAS to get a doubles match. We know Wash plays solid doubles, and the Cards dubs was somewhat suspect today. Wesleyan can win down 2-1, but if they get swept I don’t see a comeback in the Cards (I hate myself).
  • Daniel Li was pulled from the singles lineup for the match against Bowdoin, but remained apart of the top doubles pair. The freshman had been struggling, but that was surprising.
  • Health is big. Daniels missed the 2nd match today, and Samson hasn’t played at all in the tournament. If Wes is down multiple guys, they will be relying on unproven talent like Holtzman and Roji to at least win one of their matches.

CHAMPIONSHIP MATCH: #4 Bowdoin @ #2 CMS

#1 doubles: Tercek/Urken (Bowdoin) vs Gordy/Parodi (CMS)

AS: NE is the true expert in this match, as he possesses a much better knowledge of both teams (probably) than I do, but I will give it my best guess as I think I have some knowledge of this DIII Tennis thing. This is a big match for Bowdoin because CMS probably has an auto-point in #2 doubles with Burney/Katzman. Luckily for the Polar Bears, Urken and Tercek are going to be a standout team all year round. Let’s get this interesting. Bowdoin 9-7

NE: That’s probably the kindest thing D3AS has ever said about me (in public). Terk and Urk are really playing well right now, and while I think the team of Gordy and Parodi are good, I like the Polar Bear duo. Bowdoin 8-6.

#2 doubles: Jiang/Wolfe (Bowdoin) vs Burney/Katzman (CMS)

AS: Like I mentioned earlier, this match is potentially an auto-win for CMS, and will be counted as such until CMS loses at #2 doubles. The team of newcomers Burney and Katzman have been absolutely lights out this year and it would be stupid to pick against a team that is this hot. CMS 8-4

NE: AS is right that it’s very difficult to pick against the team of Burney and Katzman. That being said, Kyle and Jerry will easily be the best returning team the Stag duo has faced this year. This is a battle between two top-5 #2 doubles teams in the country, and I think it’ll be a tight one. CMS, 8-6.

#3 doubles: Patel/Roddy (Bowdoin) vs Berber/Park (CMS)

AS: If you’re counting at home, this is obviously a huge match. Patel and Roddy are a team to be reckoned with but one that lost to Wash U today. That being said, the Wash U 3s are extremely strong, so it’s not that bad of a result. It’s hard to say what Berber/Park’s true skill level is this year and I’m going to go with the more known entity in Patel/Roddy. Bowdoin 8-6

NE: Patel and Roddy were broken late by Wash U earlier today, but I agree with AS that I don’t put the same faith in the CMS #3 team as I do the #2 team. This is a toss-up/swing match, and right now I’m going with the freshest legs on the court in Jake Berber. CMS 8-7(4).

#1 singles: Grant Urken (Bowdoin) vs Niko Parodi (CMS)

AS: On paper this looks like a mismatch, but we were taught today that no one is invincible as Parodi almost lost to Fallati of Swarthmore. Not to say Mark isn’t a good player, but that was a really tight match. Parodi will look to bounce back on his home courts. He’s probably one of five best players in the country. Go with the big gun here. CMS 7-5, 6-2

NE: Parodi is probably one of the five best players in the country, HOWEVER Grant Urken is not that far off. He was an All-American singles player last year as Bowdoin’s #2, and made quick work of Fojtasek and Wu today. I think he pushes Parodi, and this is a match that Bowdoin will need to win if they go down after doubles. CMS, 6-4, 3-6, 6-4.

#2 singles: Luke Tercek (Bowdoin) vs Jack Katzman (CMS)

AS: A rough matchup for Tercek as he seems to always need to prove himself despite three years of pretty solid play at the top spots for Bowdoin. He goes up against the freshman phenom Katzman, who has not lost yet this year I’m pretty sure. Again, as I do with most players or teams that haven’t lost yet over like 4-5 matches against top competition, you go with that guy. CMS 7-6 (3), 7-5.

NE: Let’s give Big Luke Tercek some love! He seems to have accepted playing #2 for the first time in his career with grace, and he absolutely destroyed van der Sman today, and rolled through his singles match with Case. Admittedly, things are about to get a little tougher for the Bowdoin senior, but he should provide Katzman’s toughest test of the year so far. As much as I like Tercek’s serve and volley style, you can’t pick against Jack until he loses. CMS 3-6, 7-5, 6-2.

#3 singles: Kyle Wolfe (Bowdoin) vs Oscar Burney (CMS)

AS: A huge match here between a player that really has yet to prove himself as a middle of the lineup player for CMS and a player who has proven his worth time and time again in Wolfe. I would have made a killing last year if I went with Wolfe in every single match, mostly because you always know he’s going to have a decent day. Have we ever seen Kyle play poorly and lose to someone he shouldn’t have? NE, answer this for me. Bowdoin 6-4, 6-4.

NE: Wolfe did take losses against Colby, Bates and Wesleyan last year, but in all of those matches Kyle’s individual match was not going to affect the outcome of the team score at the time it was decided. The second of Bowdoin’s senior trio, Wolfe is reliable to give his all and grind out every single freakin point, exactly the type of player you want to bet on when you’re playing your 3rd match in 36 hours. Bowdoin, 4-6, 6-3, 7-5.

#4 singles: Jerry Jiang (Bowdoin) vs Daniel Park (CMS)

AS: A HUGE BATTLE HERE. Jerry Jiang has seemingly always been the “shakiest” part of the Bowdoin lineup, where he leaves things to chance with a lot of three setters and sometimes some blown leads. Daniel Park has been consistent no matter where he plays in the lineup and this should be a fun match between two grinding baseliners. This could be the decider, and true to my form, I go with the favorites on their home courts. CMS 4-6, 6-3, 7-5

NE: D3AS has a little more faith in Jiang than I do right now. He’s looked a bit rusty in his return to the Polar Bear lineup, while Park has been really good all year long (and really for his whole career). Edge to Park here. CMS 6-4, 6-3.

#5 singles: Gil Roddy (Bowdoin) vs Julian Gordy (CMS)

AS: Gordy is now in for the Stags and I think that’s a great move by Coach Settles. Will this matter against the best #5 singles player in the nation? It could. Remember, Gordy is a guy that has played some stints at the top of the lineup before. This is a marquee matchup at 5 and you won’t see this very often. Bowdoin 6-3, 6-7 (5), 6-4.

NE: Gordy didn’t lose a game in his first match today, and then appears to have run away from Jon Holtzman in the semis. Roddy also won both his matches today, and his lifetime record at #5 singles is simply ridiculous. Can’t pick against the track record. Bowdoin 7-5, 6-4.

#6 singles: Justin Patel (Bowdoin) vs Matthew Jacobs (CMS)

AS: Another important match and I definitely need to move Bowdoin up in my Power Rankings after this. Patel is coming off a tough day today and he pulled out a win against a tough player in Takabatake today. This might come back to haunt him and this is another match that could be the decider. CMS 7-5, 6-4.

NE: Patel came back in both sets this evening and ended up finishing off Mark Wu in a superbreaker. I’ve been impressed with the sophomore so far this year, but I’m afraid Jacobs is a different level. CMS 6-4, 6-3.

PREDICTIONS:

AS: CMS def Bowdoin 5-4

NE: CMS def Bowdoin 6-3 (Note, if Bowdoin wins, I think their recipe is a win at #1 dubs and a tight win at either #2 or #3, then singles wins at #1, #3 and #5)

 

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