Stag-Hen Day 1

CMS vs. Kenyon will tell whether the Stags are ready to get off the national championship schneid
CMS vs. Kenyon will tell whether the Stags are ready to get off the national championship schneid

First Round

#1 Emory vs. #8 Swarthmore

Swarthmore is a team that just lost to Whittier and got destroyed by Redlands. They aren’t about to beat the defending national champions unless they have some fairy dust left over from that CMS upset. Unfortunately, I think they’re on P-P’s half of the draw so they’re not even on the same courts that made the magic happen before.

That was just filler text. Emory is going to win this match either 9-0 or 8-1. Apparently Halpern is sick (thanks Twitter), so that will be an interesting subplot going forward.

#2 Kenyon vs. #7 Skidmore

Kenyon has been absolutely rolling so far this season. They had a little hiccup against Stevens where they went down 1-2, exhibiting once again that you have to take absolutely everyone at least a little bit seriously these days.

As long as they take the Thoroughbreds seriously, they will be fine.  Skidmore just got absolutely slaughtered by Cal Lu, and Kenyon has to be deeper. Loutsenko can obviously beat anyone on the right day, but I think Burgin will come through there to make it 9-0 for Kenyon.

#3 CMS vs. #6 Case Western

This is where things start to get interesting. Case is obviously dangerous judging by their victory over Wash U, but I don’t think they’re much of a threat to the Stags. If the Spartans are going to pull it off, they’re going to need a doubles sweep. They played good doubles against Bowdoin a couple of days ago, but ultimately, Wood and Dorn will probably be Case’s downfall. Case hasn’t quite put together a consistent #1 doubles team, and for that reason, they won’t get the sweep.

I see CMS taking a 2-1 lead in doubles and then rolling through singles. An interesting subplot to follow this tournament will be Lane’s play. The veteran has had a horrendous start to his season, but it’s only a matter of time before he gets his legs underneath him. The Stags will need him if they’re gonna beat Kenyon and Emory. 7-2 CMS here.

#4 Bowdoin vs. #5 Pomona-Pitzer

At the beginning of the season, I had this match pegged as a serious Pool C barnburner. It hasn’t shaped out that way so far. P-P has really struggled, especially with the injury to Weichert, and Bowdoin has stormed out of the gate with comeback victories over Case Western and Carnegie Mellon (all but assuring themselves of a Pool C spot in their first two matches of the season).

Interestingly, Bowdoin has met with success this season without consistent production in doubles. One time #1 is sitting pretty at 3 and only figures to get stronger as the season continues. Their doubles play should also improve as they get match tough. (I think the speed and energy of match doubles takes the longest to come back early in the season, but that’s just me). Anyways, what I’m saying is that Bowdoin could be scary-good this season. P-P always seems to have at least one screwball up their sleeve. Until they prove they can do it – and until Weichert is 100% – I’m going with Bowdoin, 7-2.

Second Round

#1 Emory vs. #4 Bowdoin

I know, I know. I picked the favorites in the four opening matches, and this is getting boring. I’m about to mix things up, I promise. Psych! You gotta go with Emory in this match. So far, Bowdoin and Emory have had similar strengths and weaknesses this year. The Eagles aren’t particularly strong in doubles, and neither has Bowdoin been. The Eagles are incredibly deep 2-5 with a solid #1 and some question marks at #6. Same with Bowdoin.

The only way I see Bowdoin winning this match is if they find the doubles that allowed them to beat Middlebury and Williams last year. Even with a doubles sweep, I think they’ll have a hard time winning, but break it down. For the sake of argument, let’s say Bowdoin is up 2-1 after doubles and Halpern is playing:

You gotta go with Halpern over Bragg. Even coming off an illness, you have to take someone who has proven himself to be one of the best players in the country over a mostly untested #1 from Bowdoin. Grindon is a great player, capable of beating just about anyone on the right day, but Ruderman is another proven winner and will almost certainly win this match. King vs. Wagner could be a very good match, but again, you gotta go with one of Wagner’s super sophomores over someone who’s still shaking off rust. At #4, things could get very interesting. Lord seems to win just about every match he sinks his fingernails in. If he loses, it will happen in 30 minutes, but I think he can beat Kahler. After that, Mosetick has been rock solid at 5, and I think he beat Wolstencraft to clinch. Bowdoin could win at 6, but Adams got a routine win over Azuza Pacific yesterday and appears to be playing some good ball. I’ll take Emory with a 6-3 win over the Polar Bears.

#2 Kenyon vs. #3 CMS

This could be the match of the tournament. Kenyon is undefeated in DIII play this season after their National Indoors Champinoship, and CMS is off to a phenomenal start. Claremont has been most impressive in doubles this year, and that could decide the match. Wood and Dorn play doubles like a runaway freight train. Once they get going, they cannot be stopped. That’s 1-0 Stags. Kenyon has played around with their pairing at #2, and Butts and Kotrappa haven’t been tested yet. That’s 2-0 Stags. Kenyon could definitely salvage a point, however, at #3 doubles with Heerboth and Ye. The pair hadn’t lost a match until they went down to Stevens at #2, but I think the crafty lefty can dink his way to a victory there, giving CMS the 2-1 lead heading into singles.

After that, things get very interesting. I think the top two positions are coin flips, no matter who plays #1 for Kenyon (and Raz was at the top spot against Stevens). Let’s say they split for a 3-2 CMS lead.  Both Marino and Heerboth are undefeated in DIII play so far this year, but both players have a knack for three setters. This one really could go either way, but judging by Marino’s loss to Halabi in the fall (another crafty lefty, albeit crafty in a very different way), I’m going with Heerboth to knot things up. This is where CMS really needs Lane to find his game. He’ll be going up against a senior leader in C.J. Williams, and judging by both players’ records this year, Williams should win. I’ll take Rosensteel over Johnson and CMS’ depth over Kenyon’s depth (Kotrappa over Ye?). Just to keep things interesting, I’ll say Lane comes away with the victory when his team needs it to give CMS the 5-4 win.

#5 Pomona-Pitzer vs. #8 Swarthmore

Make no mistake, Pomona-Pitzer is really struggling this year, and Swarthmore will be dangerous to them. This match has some serious upset potential, but I just don’t have it in me to go against the Hens in a do-or-die situation. They haven’t done it so far this year, but their doubles can be really good, and their heart will win out in this one. I think they sweep doubles against Swat.

Even after that, the match could get close, especially if Weichert is out, but the Hens will have a couple strong positions. With or without Weichert, I think Allinson and Wei come away with singles victories in the bottom half of the lineup. With Weich, I think they win 7-2; without him, 5-4.

#6 Case Western vs. #7 Skidmore

Case Western is in the midst of a minifunk right now, but I think they’re about to get their swagger back. They’re in better shape than almost anyone, and the fact that this will be the second match of the day should be to their advantage. (They’ve been in Cali for a while, but they had a day off yesterday and a relatively easy match today).

The only thing Skidmore should feel really good about in this match is Loutsenko at #1. Case hasn’t been able to buy a win at #1 singles so far this season, and Loutsenko is always a tough out. After that, things get considerably more depressing for the Thoroughbreds. I think Case is pretty even at 1, 2, and 3. As good as Sherpa and Ransom are, the Spartans should win those two positions. Knight and Steerman got rocked against Cal Lu, and Gerber and Klawitter should be very solid there. Skidmore could salvage a win at #6, but Case is very deep, and will almost definitely have someone fresh at the bottom spot. Even if Skidmore manages a doubles sweep (which they won’t) they will lose this match. I’m going 6-3 Case Western.

11 thoughts on “Stag-Hen Day 1

  1. Anonymous

    Butch Newman… That guy is a man amongst men. Legend.

  2. Anonymous

    Kenyon will work out the doubles. They struggled last season until they went 13-2 in the NCAA’s and Regionals last year. But can they do anything about CMS being just too good?

  3. Anonymous

    CMS dominating doubles sweep over Emory 9-7, 8-4, 8-3.

  4. Anonymous

    Does anyone know the last time the #1 ranked team in the country was beaten 9-0 by another D3 team? Hopefully Hansen or Wilkinson or hell Butch Newman read the comment section.

  5. Anonymous

    What in the world is going on with Kenyon doubles? Swept by Skidmore? Drubbed by CMS? Frantically changing teams? There’s plenty of time for improvement, but this has to concern Coach Theilke.

  6. ducksfan

    CMS vs Case is being played on live video here…
    http://www.firstteambroadcasting.com/channels/cms1/
    There were a couple funny moments in the beginning when they thought the audio wasn’t on yet but of course it was; classic.

  7. Anonymous

    Its still early but this year is not resembling the crazy depth of the last couple of years. It is still early but…

    At this point the Top 10 has separated itself aside from Williams who is yet to play (sure they will though). Everyone in the Top 10 has at least two wins over a Top 20 team

    Kenyon—NCW, Emory, Cal Lu,
    Emory—Trinity TX, Gustavus,
    Williams—TBD
    CMS—Trinity TX, NCW, WashU
    Bowdoin—Case, Carnegie
    Cal Lu—Trinity TX (x2), Hopkins
    Trinity TX—, Cruz, NCW, Case, Carnegie
    Hopkins—NCW, Gustavus, Amherst
    Cruz—NCW, Tyler, Whitman
    Tyler—Whitman, Carnegie, Gustavus

    Outside the top 10 only 3 teams (Redlands, Case, and NCW) have more than 1 win over Top 25 teams thus far…
    Redlands—Case, Mary Washington
    Case—NCW, Mary Wash, WashU
    Whitman—Pomona
    Middlebury—Bates
    NCW—Mary Wash, Pomona
    WashU—None
    Gustavus—Cruz
    Carnegie—Amherst
    Amherst–None
    MIT—Bates
    Bates—Pomona
    Pomona—None
    WL—None
    Mary Wash—None
    Skidmore–None

    In fact the only non-top 10 team with a top 10 win is Gustavus over Cruz and even that took pretty extreme circumstances.

  8. Anonymous

    CMS 6-3 over Kenyon…Sweep dubs and split singles

  9. d3central

    Emory over Swat 9-0. Kenyon over Skid 8-1. CMS over Case 6-3, Bowdoin over PP 6-3.
    Bowdoin over Emory 5-4, Kenyon over CMS 5-4, PP over Swat 5-4, Case over Skid 7-2.

    That’s my take. I like the way Bowdoin is playing and I think they are primed for the upset. Kenyon has been so dang good in singles, but CMS is going to be tough. Can’t wait for that matchup.

  10. Pritz

    Very solid analysis…I tend to agree that Lane could be the key to whether CMS beats Kenyon and perhaps whether the Stags win their first national title. All his losses have been close. If he gets a big win, he could develop into a strong number 4…will be interesting to watch things play out.

  11. Anonymous

    **National Ranking not submitted by National Chairs

Leave a Comment