Spring Break Walla Walla

I’ve made no secret of how excited I am for Spring Break Walla Walla. Why are you so excited for two great teams and two mediocre teams to play a quad where only two of the matches are probably going to be competitive, you might ask? Well, for you naive readers out there, I’ve compiled a list of reasons.

1. Whitman will be live streaming all of the matches. What?!?!?! You thought it was cool when you could watch one match on CMS’ courts while the announcer just talked about basically whatever he felt like, but imagine watching the entire drama unfold from the comfort of your laptop while potentially hearing the players talking shit. It’s a blogger’s wet dream. The system they’re using isn’t the easiest to use, but you can find the links they’ll be using for courts 1, 2, 3, and 4 here, here, here, and here. Live scoring will also be found here. Keep in mind that they can only stream for indoor matches, so pray for rain. Also quick shout out to Coach Northam for staying on the forefront of DIII tennis technology as always. 1st coach to twitter, 1st coach to blog, and now 1st coach to stream four courts at a time.

Awesome!

2. Whitman might have the biggest home court advantage in DIII tennis, and crazy stuff tends to happen there. UCSC is the only team that can attest to this fact, but a certain graduated grinder called it “impossible” to play there with a bunch of drunk frat boys screaming at you. (This might not be a factor on a Sunday morning). Walla Walla matches have also featured an assistant coach fighting a fan, so get pumped.

Awesome!

3. A neutral-court match between two of the top 5 teams in the country. Yes, I’m saying Trinity and CMS are two of the top 5 teams in the country. You just don’t see this very often during the regular season, and this should be an absolute treat. The last time something like this happened in my region was when Trinity pulled off a similar quad between them, CMS, Cruz, and Wash U in 2011. The CMS/Cruz match was an absolute classic, as the Slugs came out of nowhere to beat the Stags 5-4. (Side note: that quad didn’t work out so well for the host. Trinity went 0-3.)

Awesome!

4. If that’s not enough, you get to say things like “SPRING BREAK WALLA WALLA!!!!”

Alrighty, let’s jump into the analysis. Every team in this quad has already played a ranked opponent except Whitman, but this will also be CMS’ first significant action, so let’s start things off with a quick lineup analysis of the two teams seeing their first significant action before looking at the individual matches.

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Whitman’s new tennis courts will hopefully be used this weekend

CMS

Even though we’ve already seen CMS in action, the National Championship favorites are the team we know the least about heading into the weekend. We know that their top 4 players are Butts, Dorn, Wood, and Marino, and I think we can safely assume that Dorn is ahead of Wood who’s ahead of Marino based on their box scores so far. Butts hasn’t been playing, and I think he’s out with an injury. He’s supposed to be back for this weekend, but no word on that so far. If he does play, we don’t know where he’ll fit in. As far as doubles goes, Dorn and Wood will probably be playing #1. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kotrappa and Butts at #2 again, but I really have no idea. It looks like Settles and the gang have been experimenting quite a bit. Honestly, they’re probably still working on the lineup.

Regardless, we know that the Stags have ridiculous depth in singles. If I had to guess, I would say Morkovine, Macey, Pereverzin, Kotrappa, and maybe Yeh are still duking it out for those last two singles sport. Additionally, we know the Stags bring incredible potential and experience to the table in doubles. Kotrappa, Pereverzin, Butts, and Marino are all proven doubles starters. It’s hard to imagine any of them out of the lineup, but keep in mind that Pereverzin went from the NCAA doubles final to out of the lineup last season. The embarrassment of riches they have down in Claremont truly is ridiculous. Even speculating at the lineup is stressful; I can’t imagine what it’s like to be Settles. Either way, I’d say that’s a good problem to have.

In the end, one of the other reasons I’m excited for this weekend is that it will be our first real look at the Stags lineup. Once Settles sets a lineup, he tends not to mess with it too much. Usually the only position that changes much is #6 singles (which is a revolving door). Whatever lineup they throw out for the Trinity match, expect to see something similar the following weekend in the Stag-Hen.

Whitman

Whitman usually heads into its first significant competition of the season as an unknown. This season is no exception, but they’ve looked good so far going 44-1 in their first 5 matches. Based on their early season results, it looks like we’ll be seeing last season’s #1, Malesovas, back at the top spot after bowing out in the Round of 16 in ITA’s, while the three-time regional champ La Cava will be taking up the #2 spot. After that, we’ve seen some fasciculation between Riggs and Roston. Both seniors had stellar seasons last year (Roston routined Cahill when Whitman played CMS), and will undoubtedly be tough outs in the heart of the lineup. At #5, they’ve got the ITA finalist, freshman Petar Jivkov. As usual, it’s hard to tell who will be playing #6 for the Squirrels. Senior Will Huskey seemed to have the spot in the team’s 1st dual match, but he hasn’t been in the lineup in the last couple weeks with James Rivers seemingly in line for the last spot. Also in the mix is freshman Jake Hoeger.

Doubles is less of a mystery for Whitman. It seems as though the Squirrels have decided to split up their National finalists and reunite La Cava and Malesovas. I have to say I like the coaching move. Whitman really struggled at doubles last year, and by moving their second best doubles player (Rivers) to #3, they become much more dangerous as a team. Malesovas and La Cava didn’t do too badly together last year as well. Anyways, it look like Whitman will be going with Riggs and Hoeger at #2, and Rivers/Roston at #3.

For those that don’t know much about Whitman, you should know they are surprisingly deep in singles. To illustrate, they almost took 5 and 6 from CMS last year, and their #6 (Huskey) beat Malesovas in the fall. If they can use that depth to take two matches this weekend, it would obviously be a tremendous success, but they’ll have to rely on their crowd. More realistically, they should be able to take UCSC.

#15 Whitman vs. #6 Trinity – Friday not before 4 PM (indoors)

You’ll notice that I’m using our rankings for these previews. That’s both because they’re more up to date and because they make the marquee match seem more important. This match isn’t on the official calendar, but it’s happening on Friday.

Why you should’ve seen the upset coming

– You forgot that getting to Walla Walla is an absolute nightmare, and this match will be played on a Friday afternoon when the campus could be out en force. Trinity will be exhausted.

– You didn’t take into account that Whitman plays a decent conference match earlier in the day, so their doubles will be warmed up, and their singles guys will be in a nice groove.

– You neglected the fact Whitman is one of the few teams with the singles depth to counter Trinity, and the energy of the crowd will allow them to take a doubles lead and never look back.

– You forgot that Whitman stunned Trinity the last time they played, and that Trinity has a history of laying one stinker per season.

– You assumed Deuel would be play and he doesn’t.

Why you felt stupid for thinking Whitman had a chance

– You ignored the fact that Whitman simply is not good enough to hang with Trinity. Trinity has proven that they are a top tier team time and time again, and Whitman has only beaten a top 10 team twice in the last several years.

– You also ignored the fact that Whitman hasn’t won an NCAA match in the last five years despite being favorites three times.

– You overreacted to Trinity’s loss to Wash U, and forgot that this is a team that has beaten the JuCo national champions, rolled Case, and beaten several other scholarship programs.

– You didn’t think about the fact that Trinity wasn’t completely healthy when they lost to Wash U, and they have gotten healthy in the last couple weeks.

– You had no idea that Pacific had gotten a lot better and therefore didn’t even consider the possibility of Whitman being tired after having to grind it out against a conference opponent.

– You overestimated the home court advantage because you drank the Kool Aid some hack blogger was selling you.

– You forgot that you had to put on the rosiest of rose-colored glasses imagine this into being a brawl.

– You banked too much on Deuel being out, but neglected to consider how good Dunn is as a replacement at #6 (dude is nationally-ranked at the moment, whatever that’s worth)

– You thought indoors would be an advantage for Whitman, and ignored the fact that Trinity has played more matches indoors than Whitman has this season.

The Verdict

I don’t have a great feel for Whitman yet, obviously, but this match will be closer than people who don’t know Whitman think. If Whitman can get up in doubles, it might even go 5-4, but Trinity’s depth in singles will just be too much for Whitman. Paxton Deuel is about to do to Malesovas what he did to La Cava a couple months ago. I’m going with 6-3 Trinity with wins for Whitman at #1 doubles, #2 singles, and #6 singles.

#15 Whitman vs. #1 CMS – Saturday not before 1 PM (outdoors)

The Stags won't be completely unprepared for indoor tennis (photo credit: CMS Tennis Twitter)
The Stags won’t be completely unprepared for indoor tennis (photo credit: CMS Tennis Twitter)

Why you should’ve seen the upset coming

– You forgot again that Whitman really does have the singles depth to hang with CMS, and you didn’t think about the fact that CMS’ #5 and 6 singles players will be too nervous about losing their singles spots

– You also forgot that La Cava/Malesovas beat Wood/Dorn last year, and didn’t consider what would happen if Whitman took one more doubles match on their home courts.

– Once again, you underestimated what a toll traveling will take on the Stags

– You didn’t consider what a huge advantage Whitman would get if the match ends up being played inside because of rain or cold.

– You thought that the Swarthmore match from a couple years ago was a fluke and it wasn’t. (yeah… about that)

Why you felt stupid for thinking Whitman had a chance

– You focused too much on the fact that Whitman was close at the bottom of the singles lineup last time around and failed to notice the fact that Whitman lost the other four singles matches in straights and got dominated at the other two doubles spots. In fact, Whitman was lucky to even make it 7-2.

– You also chose to ignore how badly Whitman got beat by Wash U and Santa Cruz last year with essentially the same team.

– You thought that the crowd would play a factor and didn’t think about the fact that this will be played on a Saturday morning and nobody will be there.

– It completely slipped your mind that CMS has four legitimate #1 singles players who could all compete for a national championship on any given day, and that Whitman simply does not have the firepower to match something like that.

– See #1 again

The Verdict

There will be some close matches here, but CMS has the advantage at pretty much every position, especially singles. You could make an argument for Whitman at #3 doubles, but CMS has players that can win points off the ground at every position. When it comes down to it, the Stags will get the job done. CMS 7-2 with wins at #3 doubles and #3 singles for Whitman.

#6 Trinity vs. #25 UCSC – Saturday not before 10 AM (outdoors)

Why you should’ve seen the upset coming

– You didn’t consider the fact that Trinity’s yearly stinker might come in a match in which they are a little tired, completely overlook their opponent, and are looking forward for the big one in the afternoon

– You underestimated just how important Deuel is to Trinity and he doesn’t play in this one.

– I can’t even pretend, here. UCSC just proved that they are about the same as Bates and Whittier, while Trinity has been proving they are a top 10 if not top 5 team all season. It’s clear that Trinity has them outclassed up and down the lineup. The best case scenario for UCSC is to catch a tired Trinity team napping, take a 2-1 lead in doubles, and pick up a singles match at the bottom of the lineup for a 6-3 loss.

Why you felt stupid for thinking UCSC had a chance

– UCSC has already shown that they don’t have the singles depth to hang with Trinity

– Trinity clearly has superior match experience.

– Trinity will also already be used to playing in Walla Walla after their match the previous day.

– There’s really no reason to think Trinity won’t win this match

Verdict

Trinity comes out a little sleepy after a long match with Whitman the day before, but gets it together in time to take a 2-1 lead in doubles, quickly clinches the match with wins at the top of the singles match, and coasts to a 7-2 victory with wins at #3 doubles and #6 singles for UCSC.

#1 CMS vs. #6 Trinity – not before 5 PM (indoors)

Fresh off a 3rd-place finish at Indoors, the Tigers won't drown in the Walla Walla weather
Fresh off a 3rd-place finish at Indoors, the Tigers won’t drown in the Walla Walla weather

The Main Event!

Why you should’ve seen the upset coming

– You thought that CMS would cruise by Whitman and they didn’t, so you didn’t think about the fact that CMS will be tired while Trinity will have cruised by Cruz.

– You decided that it didn’t matter how much more match tough Trinity will be at this point in the season.

– You underestimated Deuel

– You assumed that Skinner just isn’t playing as good as he did last year when he’s really just due for a big win

– You didn’t think about how nervous CMS’ deep singles players sometimes get early in the season, and also ignored how Trinity has the perfect amount of depth to take advantage of that.

– Again, you ignored the rain factor, and therefore didn’t consider how much more experience Trinity has indoors than CMS.

Why you felt stupid for thinking Trinity had a chance

– Even though you forgot it earlier, you continued to ignore just how good CMS’ top four are, so you didn’t think about the fact that Trinity was basically starting off the match down 0-4 or 1-3 at best.

– You also chose to ignore the fact that Trinity’s doubles have looked a little shaky so far, and were thinking they could use a sweep to propel them to victory.

– You just didn’t think about the MAMBA in doubles

– You also were relying too much on CMS’ supposed nervousness at 5 and 6 singles, forgot that Pereverzin DGAFs as evidenced by his role as best utility player of all time in last year’s national championship match run.

– You weren’t really thinking about how good CMS is because they just haven’t played much this year, but you should have paid more attention to how easily they rolled by Bates.

– Once again, you thought Deuel would play and he doesn’t, weakening two spots even though Dunn is a very, very game replacement at #6 singles.

The Verdict

I actually think the result of this match depends on the health of Deuel and Butts. I could be wrong, and CMS might be able to win without Butts, but without him and with a healthy Deuel, I think the Tigers come away with this one. Assuming Butts plays, I’ll take CMS at #1 and #2 doubles, with the Tigers squeaking one out at #3, giving the Stags a 2-1 lead going into singles. There, Butts beats Deuel and Dorn beats Skinner, while the Tigers pick up a couple singles victories at #3 and #4 to make it a final score of 6-3 for the Stags.

Without Butts and with Deuel, Trinity could flip the match by winning two out of #2 doubles, #1 singles, and #2 singles.

#25 UCSC vs. #15 Whitman – Sunday 8 AM (weather permitting)

Why you should’ve seen this upset coming

– You thought the crowd would be a factor at 8 AM on a Sunday. Ha!

– You also didn’t think about how tired Whitman would be after three matches in two days, and how difficult it would be to start a match at 8 AM for them.

– Three words: Daylight Savings Time

– You underestimated the strength of this mini-rivalry and what UCSC’s team culture would do to the intensity of the match.

– You didn’t think about the letdown Whitman would have after losing the two “big” matches going into a match they assumed they would win.

– You ignored the fact that UCSC hasn’t lost at #6 singles yet, and were banking on Whitman’s depth to bring them through the match.

Why you felt stupid for thinking UCSC had a chance

– You were banking too much on Cruz’ senior leadership and team culture and ignored the fact that Whitman also has great senior leadership and team culture.

– You ignored the fact that this one will probably be played indoors.

– You thought Cruz would neutralize Whitman’s strength at deep singles when really it’s the other way around.

– You forgot how good at doubles La Cava and Rivers are, and just didn’t think about the fact that they basically have two guaranteed points against non-top tier teams just because of those two.

– You read too much into Cruz’ 8-1 win last year even though that was a completely different team.

Verdict

I think I’ve already made it clear how much respect I have for UCSC, but if anyone is going to leave this weekend winless, I think it’s going to be them. Between the travel, the indoor play, and the general lack of experience at the bottom of the singles lineup relative to Whitman, I think the Squirrels are going to be too much for the Slugs. I’m going with a 6-3 Whitman victory with wins at #2 doubles, #1 singles, and #4 singles.

#25 UC Santa Cruz vs. #1 CMS (after the other match)

Why you should’ve seen the upset coming

– You didn’t check the star chart and failed to realize that a team of aliens were about to land in Walla Walla on Saturday evening and concentrate CMS’ tennis talent in a broken violin they found on the edge of the highway. Therefore, you were surprised when their whole team couldn’t muster up the motor coordination to curl their fingers around the racquet handle the next day, leading to a 9-0 Santa Cruz victory

– You underestimated the “NOBODY BELIEVES IN US” factor, because literally nobody believes in them

Why you felt stupid for thinking UCSC had a chance

– Nobody thinks UCSC is going to win the match, so… I will say that I’ve been wrong before when using superlatives like “there’s no way CMS loses this match,” but I’m just gonna come out and say there’s no way CMS loses this match.

The Verdict

There’s no way CMS loses this match. 8-1 Stags with a victory by the TEAM OF DESTINY at #2 dubs for the Slugs.

And that’s it, ladies and gentlemen. I’m sure I’ll see a lot of you in the comment bars of the live stream on Friday. Let Spring Break Walla Walla begin!

 

 

One thought on “Spring Break Walla Walla

  1. dq

    Loved the writeup; I’m excited for the streams this weekend. And hey now, the broadcasting at CMS is pretty solid considering it’s all extracurricular. We’ll even be in HD this year, so get (stay?) pumped!

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