Slugs Go South: A UCSC Spring Break Preview

I’m going to add to the abundance of previews that have been released over the past couple days with a spring break preview for D3’s forgotten team, UC Santa Cruz. They currently hold a blog power ranking of #32 and an ITA ranking of….oh…obviously their scheduling is to blame :/. Santa Cruz has played 8 matches thus far but only 2 have been against D3 competition. Those two matches were against Chapman and Cal Lutheran (both unranked) and they won both comprehensively by sweeping doubles and taking 5 of the 6 singles matches. Their other matches have been against Westmont, USC, Santa Clara, Point Loma, and Army West Point. The only thing I’m really taking away from any of these is that UCSC played Point Loma to a 5-4 decision where Tufts beat Loma 6-3 and Williams beat them 9-0, which could justify a Cruz ranking in the 20-30 range in my opinion. However, as D3 ASouth mentioned in the latest addition of the power rankings, were it not for Cruz’s poor scheduling they could very well be a top 20 team. For example, last season the only ranked teams they faced were Tufts, Chicago, Colby, Pomona-Pitzer, and CMS. Only a 6-3 win over Colby allowed them to remain in the rankings. This season’s ranked schedule is even lighter; the only opportunities for a ranked win will come this weekend/next week against CMS, P-P, and Redlands. They will also play Cal Tech, who sits just outside the top 40.

As i just mentioned, Santa Cruz’s spring break schedule consists of these matches:

03/25 @CMS

03/26 @ Cal Tech

03/28 @ P-P

03/29 @ Redlands.

Here’s a peek at the Cruz singles lineup:

Power 6: 70.45 (Chad Stone 11.36, Chad Le Duff 12.04, Derek Levchenko 11.79, Sean Hollister 11.78, A. J. Flora 11.91, and Ryan Dugan 11.57).

And here’s a little break down of each of these matches:

UCSC v. #2 CMS: Hollister/Le Duff is Cruz’s strongest doubles team in my opinion, and I think the CMS #2 tandem continues to struggle. Levchenko/Flora is another solid team at #3 and CMS doesn’t really seem that close to figuring out their #3 doubles team. However, that’s just about where the fun ends for Cruz. CMS has a double header this day and I fully expect them to play a hybrid A/B team and still sweep singles handily. CMS 7-2

UCSC v. Cal Tech: Part of me wants to say this one will be close, but the more I look into the match-ups the more I see UCSC taking this one handily. Ruthwick Pathireddy is having a standout year and I’m almost certain he will get a point on the board for Cal Tech at #1 singles, Unfortunately for Cal Tech, I’m not convinced their doubles is strong enough to hang with Cruz here, and Cruz will exercise their strengths by sweeping doubles and grabbing easy points in the middle of the lineup. Ryan Dugan hasn’t been having a lot of success so I can see Cal Tech grabbing a victory in a super at #6 for a final score of: UCSC 7-2

UCSC v. #9 P-P and UCSC v. #8 Redlands: I’m going to lump these matches together into one blurb because I think both of them will go down in a similar fashion. Cruz can certainly hang with both of these teams in doubles, but I cannot see them sweeping either of these teams. After the doubles, Cruz would have to hurt P-P in the vulnerable middle of their singles lineup, but there’s no situation where I see Cruz splitting the singles with them. Same goes for Redlands; Redlands is too tough of a team to get swept in doubles by Cruz, and they are arguably stronger at every singles position in the lineup. I see both of these matches having a final score of 6-3 in Cruz’s opponents’ favor.

To conclude, if UCSC wants to return to the ITA rankings 50% of that lies in the hands of Cal Tech. A Cal Tech win over Whittier might be able to propel the Slugs into the top 40 if Cruz manages to clean up against the Beavers. A shock victory over P-P or Redlands would do one better and jump them into the top 25, but I wouldn’t bank on it. This is a team that has a lot of potential but unfortunately not a lot of opportunities to exhibit it. Hopefully their scheduling next year takes a turn for the better!