Bowdoin 2016 Season Preview
QUICK FACTS
Coach: Conor Smith, 5th season.
Location: Brunswick, Maine
Preseason Power Ranking: 7th
Preseason ITA Ranking: 9th
Preseason ITA Regional Ranking: 3rd
Twitter Handle: @PolarBearTennis
Key Additions: Luke Carstens, 4-star from Arizona, Yiangeng (Jerry) Jiang (4-star from New Jersey/China), Grant Urken (3-star from New York).
Key Departures: Noah Bragg (#2 singles and #3 doubles), Kyle Wolstencroft (#5/6 singles and #2 doubles).
Most positive extreme overreaction I’ve heard during the fall: “Senior leadership, sophomore talent, and freshman to fill in when needed, this Bowdoin team is primed to make it back to the NCAA Quarterfinals.”
Most negative extreme overreaction I’ve heard during the fall: “The losses of Bragg and Wolstencroft will hurt the Polar Bears more than people think. Tercek is bound to regress somewhat, and Bowdoin will end up falling back to the middle of the 2nd tier of the NESCAC this spring.”
OVERVIEW
Let me start off this preview by saying that I’m all about the Polar Bears. Call it regional bias, call it hype, or call it what you will, but I think Bowdoin has a real chance to get back to the NCAA Quarterfinals this year. They are coming off a good year, where they made the Sweet 16, losing 5-3 to Midd for the 2nd time in less than a week. The offseason brought some changes to Brunswick, Bowdoin lost a perennial top of the lineup guy (and master thespian) in Noah Bragg, and a good doubles player (and bottom of the lineup guy) with some of the slickest hair in the NESCAC in Kyle Wolstencroft. But with a healthy new crop of young guns to accompany the trio of talented sophomores and duo of dynamic seniors, Bowdoin is primed for a big 2016. I won’t delve too deep into the results until we get to the lineup, but like Humpty Dumpty, Bowdoin had a pretty great fall. First, Tercek made the finals of the ITA, and secondly the Polar Bears absolutely owned the Bates Tournament, winning all four singles flights and having both finalists in the A and B Flights. The Blog has them ranked #7 in the country, which must be close to its highest power ranking of all time, but the big question for this year’s Polar Bears revolves around doubles. In all six of Bowdoin’s losses last year (PP, Bates, Amherst, and Midd 3x), they were down after doubles. Then again, Bowdoin also beat Redlands, Whitman, Trinity Ct, and Williams after facing a doubles deficit (and beat Redlands and Whitman after being swept!) Very rarely can a team be top-10 in the country and face doubles deficits 10 times in the same season. Bowdoin has put together a solid schedule with a bunch of non-NESCAC matches where the Polar Bears will be favored. The big risk is that other than conference foes like Amherst and Williams, Bowdoin does not have any direct Pool-C matches. If the Polar Bears were to fall to the Ephs, or slip up along the way, they may not have enough juice in the schedule to earn a coveted Pool-C berth.
Projected Singles Lineup
Luke Trinka, Senior, UTR 11.97, Range #1-#2: The first of three Lukes, Trinka is now the Polar Bear’s elder statesman. He and Savage are captains, and must provide the necessary leadership and motivation to make this senior season a special sendoff. Luke started his career playing exhibition matches for the Polar Bears, and then jumped to #2 his sophomore year after coming out of nowhere to win the ITA. Trinka’s movement is insanely good, and though he’s a little guy his ball striking is fantastic. All that being said, he has never quite found the dominating success at the top of the lineup that some were expecting after his ITA win. He went 6-13 at #1 last year, but did have wins over good players like Lipscomb (ex-Redlands #1), Alla (CMU #1), Granoff (Brandeis #1) and Raventos (Williams #1). The top of Bowdoin’s lineup is likely its weakest spot, however having a senior like Trinka at the top spot will be big because it allows the younger guys to do their thing lower down in the lineup. All that being said, Trinka did have a fine fall. He lost somewhat surprisingly in the 1st round of the ITA to Joachim Samson (Wesleyan freshman #4-6), but then won the A-Flight at Bates taking down De Quant (Midd #4), Traff (Trinity Ct #1-2), Rosen (Bates #1-2), and Tercek (Bowdoin #2). There’s a chance that if Trinka struggles, Luke #2 could step up and take his spot, but I think this is how the year will start for the Polar Bears.
Luke Tercek, Sophomore, UTR 12.38, Range #1-#3: One of the biggest movers and shakers of the fall, Tercek appears to have made the same jump that LT #1 did after his freshman year. However, Tercek’s is somewhat less surprising. Luke went 17-3 last year playing #4 and #5 singles, and two of his three losses were 10-8 in a superbreaker of an already decided match. However, this fall blew last spring out of the water. Luke made the finals at the ITA as an unseeded player, taking down Battle (Tufts #4), Campbell (Midd #3), Raghavan (Williams #4-5), Smolyar (Midd #2), and Cauneac (MIT #1-2) before finally falling to Farrell (Midd #1) in the finals. That’s not an easy path, and in only one of those five wins did Luke drop more than five total games (3-setter vs. Raghavan). At the Bates Tournament, Luke again beat Campbell and Battle, and also scored a win over Bessette (Amherst freshman #5-bench), but ultimately fell 10-8 in a super to his doubles partner Trinka in the finals. The jump from #5 to #2 is not easy, but Tercek is very capable of producing at this spot. If he does so, this Bowdoin team is going to be a very tough out at all six spots.
Kyle Wolfe, Sophomore, UTR 11.95, Range #2-#4: Wolfe was another member of Bowdoin’s extremely talented 2014-2015 recruiting class, and played #3 during his freshman season. He went 13-6 at #3, and seems to be well on his way again in 2016. Kyle made the 3rd round of the ITA (including a straight-set win over Schidlovsky (Williams #2-4)) before losing to Granoff (Brandeis #1), and won the B-Flight at the Bates Tournament. That tournament win included victories over Quijano (Bates freshman #4-6), Jacobson (Tufts #4-5), and teammate Jiang in the finals. While that may not be quite the same caliber of competition that Wolfe played at #3 last spring, it’s pretty close. I think Wolfe will succeed the most if he again plays in the middle of the Bowdoin lineup. While I don’t really see him playing above Trinka or Tercek, he would do well at #3, and possibly even #4 if Savage comes back fully healthy. In fact, Wolfe at #4 this year would be close to untouchable. A lot of Bowdoin’s success will be determined by whether or not the sophomores have improved, stayed the same or hit their slump. Wolfe also made the semis of the ITA in dubs this fall. He played almost exclusively #3 dubs last year, so expect him to play either #2 or #3 dubs this year again.
Chase Savage, Senior, UTR 12.11, Range #3-#injured: Ah yes, we’ve finally hit our wild card. As far as wild cards go, Bowdoin is relatively tame on the singles front, but Savage has been dealing with an injury (at this point maybe it’s multiple injuries) for the better part of the past 11 months now. He was in and out of the Bowdoin lineup for most of April and May last spring and didn’t play at all this fall. His absence really hurt the Polar Bears, because Chase posted a 9-1 record at #4 singles last spring before his injury (there was talk of his injury happening either before or during his one loss (Feldman Bates #4-6) as well. I don’t expect Savage to play much doubles this year, as it’s never been his strong suit. If Chase can play singles, and play well for the season, I think Bowdoin is a top-10 team. If not, it brings a whole new set of question marks for the boys from Brunswick, and likely means that another freshman would need to step up and start at the bottom of the lineup.
Jerry Jiang, Freshman, UTR 11.85 (80% reliability), Range #4-bench: Jiang was the most pleasant surprise of Bowdoin’s freshman crop this fall, and appears to be a slight cut above the rest according to Coach Smith. Jiang was selected to play at the ITA, where he drew the difficult 1st round matchup of defending champion Michael Solimano (Amherst #2-3). The fact that Jiang was one of five Polar Bears at the ITA and Savage hasn’t played all fall, gives me a good feeling about his odds of starting. In addition, Jiang played B-Flight at the Bates tournament, ahead of the likes of Roddy, Carstens, Urken, and McGrory. Jerry’s starting status will only be helped by the fact that he made the B-Flight finals, taking down Jackson (Midd #5-7), and Ali (Tufts #3-4) along the way (both in relatively simple straight sets). He fell in the finals to teammate Kyle Wolfe, coincidentally Jiang’s fall doubles partner as well. The duo made the semis at the ITA, albeit with a relatively easy path, but lost to a Brandeis team in the 1st round at Bates. There seems to be a high likelihood that Jiang starts in both singles and doubles this spring, and should be viewed as a player to watch both this year and in coming years.
Gil Roddy, Sophomore, UTR 11.55, Range #4-#bench: Like most of the guys both above and below him, Roddy had a great Bates Tournament and not much else this fall. Gil played #6 for Bowdoin last year, and played it superbly. Roddy went 16-3 at #6 last year, and of his three losses, two were in superbreakers after his team had already lost the match (eerily similar to Tercek, actually). In addition, the dude didn’t play 3-set matches. Every single one of his 17 spring season wins came in straight sets, and he averaged losing just over five games per match. THAT’S INSANE! Good thing I have him on my fantasy team. Gil seemed poised to move up in the lineup this year, but considering he played below Jiang at the Bates Tournament, I have him listed at his familiar spot. If Coach Smith has five capable guys who can play and succeed above Roddy, why mess with a proven commodity? He was a virtual lock at #6, and part of Bowdoin’s outstanding depth. If Jiang struggles, or Savage isn’t 100%, I could see Roddy moving up to, and succeeding at #5, but for now he gets the nod at #6. Gil also played doubles all last year, with middling results. He should remain a fixture somewhere in the doubles lineup this spring.
- Luke Carstens, Freshman, UTR 11.55, Range #5-bench: The second 4-star of Bowdoin’s top-10 recruiting class, Carstens made a big trip leaving sunny Scottsdale for bum-cold Brunswick (ah the things I do for alliteration). More importantly, I think Coach Smith might have a bit of a thing for Star Wars. How else do you explain all the Lukes? No? Country Music-Lukes? Cool-Handed Lukes? I’m out. At least Carstens isn’t LT3. Shifting back to tennis, Carstens’ only singles result this fall came from the Bates Tournament, where he made the semis of the C-Flight. He beat Kelly (Tufts #6-bench) and Raglin (Amherst bench) in straight sets, before getting rolled by Schlanger (Midd#5-7). Carstens also lost in the first round of the doubles. Because Bowdoin is a small team, Luke, like the guy listed below him, is in the lineup discussion. However, I think he is likely the “next guy up,” and will get plenty of time playing exhibition matches this spring.
- Grant Urken, Freshman, UTR 12.10, Range #5-bench: Urken has a very high UTR, but he played D-Flight at the Bates Tournament behind everybody else listed above (except Savage who was injured). His UTR is bolstered by his great senior year (of high school) spring and summer results. This fall, Urken rolled through the D-Flight at Bates, without dropping a set along the way. While that is impressive, he (most likely) didn’t encounter any lineup starters in those four matches. I think the phrase here is “cautiously optimistic.” Until I see it for real, Grant remains on the outside looking in, but he probably has just a likely a shot of breaking the lineup as Carstens, making both guys fighting for the title of “next man up.”
YOU CAN SEE THE BOWDOIN SCHEDULE HERE
Schedule Analysis: Bowdoin’s first matches will be on their annual 2-week Cali spring break trip. Six matches in ten days, with the most noticeable thing being that they don’t play Pomona. Considering Bowdoin’s pre-season top-10 ranking and its NESCAC schedule, this is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, a win over Pomona would all but guarantee a slew of indirects over Pool-C competitors, but on the other hand a loss to the Hens combined with no other non-NESCAC Pool C matches could be devastating. Instead of Pomona, Bowdoin takes on Trinity Ct, Whitman, Skidmore, CMS, Chapman, and Stevens. Anything less than 5-1 on this trip would be considered a failure for the Polar Bears, although a loss to Whitman might not kill Bowdoin’s Pool-C hopes nearly as much because of weak conference/not too many indirects (namely, if Whitman beats Tufts and Redlands). Considering Stevens and Skidmore play a host of NE teams, a loss in either matchup would be very damaging.
After California, Bowdoin returns home and must go though the usual NESCAC gauntlet. Sunday, April 3 at Wesleyan could be a fun match depeding on how Wesleyan’s season has shaken out at that point. The Cards are one of the few teams ranked lower than the Polar Bears who have the depth to make that a match. Bowdoin hosts Amherst the following weekend, and travels to both Brandeis and Midd on consecutive days the following weekend. That’s kind of a brutal trip, especially driving to Middlebury after having just played a match that day, but all players get used to that sort of stuff. Amherst and Midd should be excellent tests for Bowdoin. Doubles will be key as both the Jeffs (or whatever they are called now) and the Panthers usually take doubles leads over Bowdoin. Even though Bowdoin may have as much singles strength as Midd and Amherst, a 2-1 hole, makes it that much more difficult to beat a top-5 team.
Bowdoin ends its regular season hosting Williams, Bates, Colby, and then traveling to Tufts. Bowdoin and Williams should be fun, as both teams should very much still be in the Pool-C hunt. On paper, Bowdoin is a better team than Bates, but they were so on paper the past two years as well (Bates won both matchups). Colby shouldn’t be any trouble, but Reed packs a punch and his battle vs Trinka could be for a NCAA spot. Finally a trip to Tufts is all that stands between Bowdoin and the postseason. Playing on Tufts indoors (like most NE indoor courts) is tough, but hopefully playing in May means enough warmth to play the match outdoors. Tufts could (although less likely now that Battle is gone for the year) be playing for its Pool-C lives, or even just a shot at NESCACs here. Speaking of, NESCACs are played at Bates this year, which is a quick trip for the Polar Bears and means they will get to stay in their own rooms. I don’t know when Ivies are this year, but for the team’s sake I hope they’re not that weekend. Otherwise, Coach Smith needs to get a hotel in Lewiston.
Season Prediction: I haven’t been shy about thinking highly of the NESCAC this spring, and Bowdoin is no exception. I said that anything less than 5-1 on the Spring Break trip would be considered a disappointment for the Polar Bears, but I think they will do it. Skidmore and Stevens present interesting out of conference regional matchups, but Bowdoin is just too strong at the bottom of the lineup. Whitman is a step up from both NE teams, but I still think Bowdoin is stronger at 5/6 singles spots (Hewlin gets a slight edge over Trinka in my opinion). Bowdoin had to overcome a doubles sweep last year to beat Whitman, something I’m sure Coach Smith wants to see none of this year. The CMS matchup should be the best early season measuring stick for the Polar Bears, and this will be only the 2nd time these two teams have played in the past four years (CMS won 9-0 two years ago). CMS will get the win, but it’ll closer than some people think. I’m very intrigued to see the singles scores in this matchup.
At Wesleyan is a bumpy start back in the NE, but as long as Bowdoin doesn’t go down big after doubles (both teams weakness) I think they’ll win a close match here. Home against Amherst will be another big test. I said it before, but I think if Bowdoin goes up 2-1 after doubles on Amherst, they are at least even money to win this match! We’ll obviously preview it more when we get closer to the match, but Bowdoin (with a healthy Savage) might even be favored at 4/5/6. Brandeis indoors can present a couple challenges, but Bowdoin should be able to roll the Judges with its depth, bringing on a big match with Midd. The Panthers beat the Polar Bears 5-3 in the NESCAC semis, and then again in the Sweet 16. In both matches, Midd took a 2-1 lead and won #’s 1&2 singles. With Farrell playing out of this world and Smolyar probably the best #2 in the country, Bowdoin will likely either need to take the lower singles spots, or a doubles lead here. Then again, Tercek did beat Smolyar at ITAs. This seems like another 5-4 or 6-3 Midd win, but if Bowdoin finds its doubles rhythm this year, there could be an upset brewing.
Williams is another tough matchup because the Ephs generally play better doubles than Bowdoin, and have some very solid depth this year themselves. Last year Bowdoin overcame a doubles deficit by winning 1-3 singles with relative ease. Don’t expect it to be so easy this year. I’ll take Bowdoin, but just by the wispy hairs on my chinny-chin-chin. I like Bowdoin to take revenge on Bates this year, and without too much drama, and then beat Tufts in a similar fashion to close out the regular season. Bowdoin would earn the #3 seed at NESCACs, beat Tufts or Bates again in the 1st round (although a Bowdoin/Bates 1st round NESCAC matchup at Bates could be meddlesome), and then get Amherst again in the semis. It has all the makings of a 5-4 matchup but I’ll take Amherst again. Luckily, Bowdoin gets a high Pool-C bid, and actually ends up hosting a region (or being the #1 seed at another host-site) and making its way to the program’s second NCAA quarterfinals in the past 5 years! If they stay healthy, look for big things from this Polar Bears squad in 2016!