Williams 2016 Season Preview
QUICK FACTS
Coach: Dan Greenberg, 7th season. NCAA Coach of the Year in 2013
Location: Williamstown, Massachusetts
Preseason Power Ranking: 12th
Preseason ITA Ranking: 13th
Preseason ITA Regional Ranking: 4th
Twitter Handle: @EphsTennis. Good twitter follow. Pretty good with score updates, if you know player’s nicknames. If not, it can be a minefield.
Key Additions: Deepak Indrakanti (4-star from Ohio), Christian O’Connor (3-star from Massachusetts), Yuxin Wu (China), Alex Gueganic (France).
Key Departures: None to graduation.
Most positive extreme overreaction I’ve heard during the fall: “With nobody graduating and another year under Coach Greenberg’s tutelage, Williams is once again has some senior leadership, ready to lead the charge for another conference title.”
Most negative extreme overreaction I’ve heard during the fall: “Williams strength still mainly lies with its younger players. A bad doubles outing and this team could find itself losing to Tufts…again.”
OVERVIEW
Welcome to the middling uncertainty that is the 2nd tier of the NESCAC. As many as five teams will lay it all on the line with possibly only one spot open to get into NCAAs. While Bowdoin is the favorite to finish 3rd in the conference and likely lock up one of the last Pool C bids, Williams might be their biggest challengers. The Ephs have the talent (there are a lot of “stars” both in and out of the starting lineup, they have the coaching (Greenberg won Coach of the Year in 2013), and they have the recent history (NCAA champs in 2013). The other bloggers were pretty down on the Williams team that lost to Tufts last spring (the first time a Williams team had lost to Tufts since 1990!), a loss that included a highly improbable Jumbos doubles sweep, but the Ephs roared back to finish the year strong, making the NESCAC finals with a 5-0 revenge win over Tufts and a stunning 5-2 upset over their rival Amherst in the semis. This year, Coach Greenberg’s squad should be an improved version of last year, especially considering they did not lose anybody to graduation. The possible loss of Harron (more on that later) could hurt, but the Ephs were playing without him at the end of last season anyways. Another 4-star freshman, a D1 transfer, and another year under one of the best coaches in the country should mean productive things for the Ephs in 2016. Their early schedule allows them a chance to put themselves at the front of the Pool-C discussion right away, but they’ll have to battle through the slugfest that is a NESCAC schedule. If everything clicks for the Ephs, we will see them turn back into a top-10 team. However, as we all know, the rackets will have to do the talking. Who’s rackets will be talking loudest for the Ephs? Let’s meet the squad…
Projected Singles Lineup
Jose Raventos, Senior, UTR 12.33, Range #1-#2: Raventos played #1 all of last season, and the senior is primed to take the top spot yet again. Even at the top spot he brought in about as many wins for the Ephs as any of his teammates. Combine that with a solid fall and you have the recipe for a #1 singles player. Jose (surprisingly) played #3 against Vassar in Williams’ 1st dual match of the fall, but then was the #5 overall seed at ITAs. He won the match against Vassar, made the quarters of ITAs including easy wins over Ordway (Bates #4-6) and Roberts (Wesleyan #2-4) before falling to Farrell (Midd #1) 2&6 (Farrell’s closest match of the tournament). Jose then played #1 in the Ephs’ dual match vs RPI (where he beat Grimes (RPI #1) 3&2), but the two guys who previously played ahead of him (Shastri and Schidlovsky) did not play singles. There is a chance that the big hitting Costa Rican cedes the top spot to a fellow Eph, but that would only be because he was playing outstanding tennis. If Raventos plays #3 like he did in the Vassar match, he has a good chance to go undefeated this year. Raventos is also likely to play on either the #1 or #2 doubles teams this spring, but Coach Greenberg mixed up his teams all fall so the doubles lineup is really anyone’s guess.
Rohan Shastri, Junior, UTR 11.93, Range #1-#3: Shastri is the type of recruit that any coach would love to have. He’s homegrown, from Williamstown, Mass., and a damn good player. Now in his 3rd year, Shastri has shown that he can play in the top ½ of both the singles and doubles lineups. He ended his sophomore campaign on absolute fire with straight set wins over Ellis (Bates #2-3), Gupte (Tufts #2), Solimano (Amherst #2-3), and Farrell (Midd #1), but had a minor misstep at the ITA this fall. Shastri went down to Traff (Trinity Ct #1-2) after retiring down a set and 3-0. No word on the extent of the injury (or other retirement reason?). Shastri also won his dual match at #2 over an underrated player in Daniel Cooper from Vassar. Rohan did not play against RPI, so the Vassar win and 1st round ITA loss are his only singles results from the fall. My guess is that headband wielding Shastri will hang tough in the top ½ of the lineup, but might vary between 2 and 3 depending on Schidlovsky’s play.
Alex Schidlovsky, Senior, UTR 11.52, Range #1-#6: Schidlovsky is the second biggest wildcard actually listed on the Eph roster (more on Gueganic down below). He is a big kid with big game, but is the definition of streaky. Coach Greenberg obviously thinks a lot of Alvin, because he usually starts the spring at a higher lineup spot than he finishes it. He has played as high as #1 over the past couple years, and took down Litsky (Vassar #1) in their fall dual match. However, he has struggled mightily at the top of the lineup in past years, and in my opinion, is best suited to play in the middle of the lineup where he can fire away with less consequence. Alvin is also a top-notch doubles player, and has played at the top of the Eph’s doubles lineup for the majority of his now 4-year career. If Al can be productive and bring home some wins at whatever lineup spot he’s playing, Williams is in for a good spring.
Brian Grodecki, Sophomore, UTR 12.17, Range #3-#5: Ah yes, now we get to the 2014 recruiting class. Three very talented sophomores have staked their respective claims to the starting lineup, and Grodecki is the first of the three. BG went 13-5 last year at #4 singles, and only lost to the best competition (Morkovine (CMS #3), Kratky (WashU #3), De Quant (Midd #4), Revzin (Amherst #4), and Frons (Midd-not on roster). He beat Revzin, Tercek (Bowdoin #2), and Traff (Trinity #1-2) amongst many others. This fall Brian beat Ko (MIT #2/5-star recruit) and Bunis (Brandeis #3-4) before falling to Farrell (Midd #1) in the 3rd round of the ITA. Grodecki also won both of his dual matches in convincing fashion, at #5 vs. Vassar and #2 vs. RPI, losing a total of three games. UTR likes this kid, and it wouldn’t shock me to see him jump past Schidlovksy at some point this spring. Other than Raventos, BG is the guy who I think will have the best season for Williams, regardless of spot in the lineup.
Sachin Raghavan, Sophomore, UTR 11.55, Range #3-#6: Like Grodecki, Raghavan is a talented sophomore who made good use of the fall. Sachin won both the Eph’s dual matches, although in tight contests at #4 vs. Vassar and #3 vs. RPI. At the ITA, Raghavan double bageled Ryser (Wheaton #2-4) and then took down Michael Liu (Wesleyan #1-2) in three sets in the 2nd Sachin’s ITA campaign ended with a three-set loss to Tercek (Bowdoin #2). Raghavan and Grodecki played #3 dubs all last year, and were paired up for both dual matches this fall as well. That could be a sneaky talented #3 doubles team this spring as well (maybe behind Schid/Sadow or Astro and Shastri/Raventos?). Saching also ended his 2014-2015 strongly, with wins over Rosen (Bates #1), De Quant (Midd #4), and Rodriguez (ex-Amherst #5). In fact, Raghavan beat Amherst twice last year in singles, accounting for two of the six times that the Amherst #5 player lost all season long. Sachin will definitely feature in the lineup again this year, and if he slots in at #5 or #6 should be prepared to be one of the best in the country.
Jordan Sadowsky, Sophomore, UTR 11.39 Range # 5-bench: The last of the super sophomores, Sadowsky just missed the cut of getting an ITA entry. He did win both dual matches with relative ease (#6 vs. Vassar and #4 vs. RPI), but that doesn’t tell us too much about what (if any) strides the Californian has made between years one and two in Williamstown. Jordan was a less heralded recruit (3-star vs. 4-star for Grodecki and Raghavan), but still saw some of playing time at the bottom of the Ephs lineups last spring. As of the fall, he appears to be higher on the depth chart than either Weiss or Indrakanti, so he gets the #6 spot for now. That being said, his only DIII singles results last year were a win over Conn College and straight set losses to Pomona-Pitzer (Josh Kim at #5) and Tufts (Glickman at #6). Hopefully Jordan can provide some much needed stability to the anchor spot of the Wiliams lineup, but if he struggles the Ephs have some very capable candidates ready to step up…
- Alexandre Gueganic, Freshman, UTR 11.13 (0% reliability), Range #2-bench: WILDCARD ALERT! According to TRN, Gueganic was committed to UC Santa Barbara, but I couldn’t find too much about him online. He’s French, and apparently he’s taking his talents to Williamstown. His UTR isn’t special, but the unreliability allows me to look past it. Honestly, this is like Eusebio and Wesleyan but with even less clarity, hence the big range. This is one that we might just have to wait out (Williams’ first match isn’t until late March). Any helpful commenters?
- Deepak Indrakanti, Freshman, UTR 11.06 (70% reliability), Range #6-bench: Deepak is a 4-star recruit from Cincinnati and is Williams’ top freshman recruit this year. His only singles result was an easy 1&1 win at #5 against RPI in October. He did get to play dubs at the ITA with Sadowsky, but lost to Urken and Roddy (a Bowdoin team that would be a pleasant surprise if they played any higher than #3 dubs). Deepak seems like a guy who will certainly help the Ephs in coming years, but his chances of immediate contribution are less likely. However, the Ephs graduate 5 seniors this year, and even though they have a baller recruiting class for next year, Deepak should still have the opportunity to make an impact.
- Howie Weiss, Senior, UTR 11.33, Range #6-bench: Lil’ Weiss is the third Eph senior in this preview, which probably means I should stop calling him Lil’ Weiss. After an awesome freshman year, Weiss was promoted to the top of the lineup during his sophomore spring. Unfortunately, that year had mixed results (although he did score wins over Zykov (Amherst #2) and Yasgoor (PP #1). Howie lost a bunch of matches last year too, although he did have a big win over Macey (CMS #3-5). Unless Weiss has regained his form, I think he’s on the outside looking in this year. However, like Astrachan (more on that below), Weiss might be called upon to step up in a pinch. When times are toughest, who better to call upon than a battle tested senior with NCAA experience?
- Yuxin Wu, Freshman, UTR 10.68 (80% reliability), Range #6-bench: Another guy not listed on the TRN site, Wu played ahead of Weiss and a couple other Ephs in the dual match vs. RPI, getting the start and victory at #6. The fact that he was in the dual lineup and listed above Howie are the reasons he makes the preview. I still believe that Coach Greenberg would go to his senior first, especially as the season progresses, but you never know. Like Deepak, I see Wu as a guy who will get his chances down the road, probably as early as next year, but barring injury seems unlikely to start this spring.
- Conrad Harron, Junior, UTR 10.80, Range #3-Not on the team?: The Blonde Bomber? Conrad fell off in a major way last year, dropping from #1 in the fall all the way out of the singles lineup by the end of the year. The 5-star recruit is no longer listed in the Eph’s lineup, and my gut tells me that he is no longer a part of the team. Even if he does return, he would not be guaranteed a lineup spot. However, if he did return at closer to top form, he not only gets a spot, but probably plays at #5 at the lowest. Unlikely, but I can’t rule it out until we see Williams’ first match in March (or a friendly commenter helps us out??).
- Brian Astrachan, Senior, UTR 10.92 (30% reliability) Range Doubles-bench: Another 4-star recruit from four years ago, Astrachan has been a reliable doubles guy for Williams. Though he doesn’t always get the playing time, my guess is that if there are any doubles issues this season, that Astrachan is the next guy up. He has played a lot with Schidlovsky, and can handle the pace at the top of the dubs lineup. Case in point this fall when he didn’t play against Vassar but then played #1 dubs with Raventos vs. RPI (and won 8-2). My guess is that when the postseason rolls around, we may just see Astrachan at the top of the doubles lineup once again.
YOU CAN SEE THE WILLIAMS SCHEDULE HERE
Schedule Analysis: Like almost all other NE teams, Williams heads to California for its spring break. Unlike most other NE teams, Williams’ spring break isn’t until the 4th week of March. Williams is in California for at least 10 days, and the Ephs play six matches over that span. They alternate between DIII and non-DIII opponents. After the opening match vs. Point Loma, the Ephs play the most important match of their break on March 23 at Pomona-Pitzer. As for any team in the Pool-C hunt, Pomona is going to be a HUGE barometer for Williams’ NCAA standing. Later on in the week, Williams travels to Redlands and back to CMS. If the Ephs can take 2 of the 3 DIII matches in Cali, they should be in great shape. However, a close loss to Pomona, a win over Redlands, and a loss to CMS is the most likely outcome.
After Cali, the Ephs come home and immediately get into the meat of their NESCAC schedule. Their first match back is at home vs. Middlebury, and the next day they host Wesleyan. They will be underdogs vs. Midd, but are one of the few teams that should be able to stick with the Panthers through dubs. Williams will probably be favored against a very talented Wesleyan team, and depending on how the D1 transfers work out this one could be an absolute war. The schedule doesn’t let up, as the following weekend Williams hosts Tufts, and the weekend after that the Ephs take a Maine trip to take on Bowdoin and Bates. Williams should actually be an underdog against Bowdoin, but this one could also come down to the wire. Tufts beat Williams last year, and a repeat is not out of the question, but I expect the Ephs to handle both Tufts and Bates without too much of a scare, in the 6-3 range. Lastly, Williams hosts its rival Amherst and goes to Trinity for the final matches of the regular season. Trinity shouldn’t be a problem, but the Amherst/Williams match is one that I circle every year. The teams always play great battles and last year was no exception when Amherst dominated the regular season matchup before Williams turned the tables and won at NESCACs (which in turn might have set Amherst on a path to its quarterfinal collision with Chicago).
NESCACs are at Bates this year, which means that Williams won’t have a home court advantage, but also won’t have to deal with Amherst or Midd fans. If Williams beats everyone they are supposed to (a heck of a lot easier said than done, especially with a NESCAC schedule), but losses to PP, CMS, Bowdoin, Amherst, and Midd, I believe they will be the first team not selected to the tournament. However, how often do things really go that smoothly? Remember kids, the black-hole is out there. The DIII tennis season is kind of like dating a crazy girl. You know it’s not going to end smoothly, but the middle part is real fun.
Season Prediction: A spring break upset of Pomona, and a 2-1 Cali trip puts Williams on the NCAA map early. A loss to Midd followed by a tired loss to Wesleyan drops them right back off it. Some regrouping, including relative carefree wins over Tufts and Bates are negated with a 5-4 loss to Bowdoin. An entertaining but ultimately not so close loss to Amherst drops the Ephs to 5th in the conference. But Williams gets its revenge, “upsetting” Wesleyan in the 1st round of NESCACs and thrusting the team back into the NCAA conversation. However, a semifinal loss vs. Midd leaves the Ephs on the wrong side of the bubble, and likely the 1st team out of the tournament. All in all, a better season for Williams, a final ITA ranking of somewhere in the #11-14 range, and some real promise going into the next couple years.
Another season preview down (these really are the worst part of this exclusive job/fancy blogging lifestyle), and now just two more remaining. I want to have Bowdoin done for you by Sunday, but if I can bring myself to watch the stupid Super Bowl then it’ll probably be Monday. Long live Cam