The Real Bracketology: Edition #2

It’s about that time.  After another big weekend, the Guru (D3Tennis) has graced us with his second edition of bracketology for this season.  Again, this uses all the correct rules and normal procedure that the ITA/NCAA committee would use, no caveats.  If you are a bit confused, I’d say go back to Bracketology #1 and look at those rules because I don’t want to write them again.  One thing I would like to note is that we are using LAST YEARS WINNERS for conferences that we don’t have as much information about.  I have received emails from a few schools that they will be the winners of their conference, but until they win their conference it’s really tough for us to say “hey you are going to win this conference.”  We’ve tried to incorporate some of your feedback with conference winners but there are definitely no guarantees.  This time around, we’ll also have some commentary from our regional writers, which I think will be a nice addition as well.  Please feel free to comment as always, as I know you readers do love your bracketology.  I won’t take any potshots at anyone else in this little paragraph because I actually gave up mud-slinging for Lent.  Well, here we go:

*Denotes hosting site

1. CMS*, Pomona, Tyler, Cruz

2. Wash U, Gustavus, Whitewater*, Coe, Grinnell, Concordia (Wis.)

3. Amherst*, MIT, Skidmore, Juniata, Baruch, Marywood

4. Emory*, Whitman, NC Wesleyan, Sewanee, Earlham

5. Williams*, Bowdoin, Babson, Colby-Sawyer, Elizabethtown, Farmingdale State

6. Hopkins*, Kenyon, Washington & Lee, Grove City, Franciscan

7. Trinity, Middlebury*, Stevens, Nichols, Wilkes, UMass-Boston

8. Carnegie Mellon*, Case Western, Mary Wash, Kalamazoo, Ohio Northern, Wheaton

Pool B: Cruz, Whitewater, Sewanee, MIT, Babson

Pool C: Williams, Midd, Bowdoin, CMU, Emory, Case, Pomona

D3West: I’d like to start off my little section of the comments by saying that it’s an absolute pleasure to have The Guru contributing, as always. This bracketology is a spot-on representation of what the field looks like at this point in time, and he’s the only guy around here who really knows how to synthesize everything in a succinct and easy-to-understand manner. I would like to take this opportunity to pre-emptively cut off the RPI bleeding hearts and say that whoever wins the Liberty League will likely end up in that same region with Amherst and MIT. Putting Skidmore in right now is just a reflection of where we’ll be leaning if Loutsenko gets healthy enough to play singles by the time the conference tournament rolls around.

Anyways, I’m gonna use this space to talk about where my regional teams have ended up in this bracketology. The Region of Death has a pretty obvious composition here, but there are two things to argue about:

1. Why Tyler instead of Whitman. Precedent says that the committee likes to send the higher of the two teams (Tyler/Whitman) to be a #2 seed elsewhere in the country and use the other to fill out the region of death when only three California teams qualify, so that’s why Tyler is in there right now. Hones 2.

2. Should Tyler really be ahead of Cruz for the 3 seed? At this point, Tyler and Cruz have resumes that are basically equivalent in terms of big wins. Tyler is getting the nod here because they have more quality wins (Earlham and Stevens), but I could really see it going either way. Cruz could make this discussion a moot point by beating Cal Lu. Alternatively, Cal Lu could sneak in the back door by beating P-P and having Bowdoin lose to Tufts, Trinity, Wesleyan, or Bates (looking more and more possible). That would get rid of the necessity to fly Tyler.

Then there’s Trinity. Trinity is getting absolutely boned here. There is basically no evidence that either Emory, Williams, or Johns Hopkins is better than them at all, but they are being rewarded for their 7 ranked wins with a date with Middlebury on their home courts. Realistically, I think Trinity should be the #6 overall seed AT THE VERY LEAST and should draw Bowdoin with Midd and Williams playing each other in the Sweet Sixteen. Unfortunately, unless either Hopkins or Williams loses, Trinity will stay behind those two teams in the rankings and this is the matchup they will get. Certainly not a favorable draw for the Tigers. Middlebury would be tough to beat on their home courts.

Last for my region is Whitman. The good news in this draw for them is that they would be in a prime position to finally get off the NCAA schneid and make the Sweet Sixteen. The bad news is that they would have an essentially unwinnable match against Emory on their home courts. In this case, a trip to the Region of Death might actually be favorable for them, as they would get the chance to avenge their loss to P-P and potentially play their way into Indoor nationals. A win over NCW wouldn’t do them any favors. The best case scenario for Whitman right now would be if Bowdoin loses and they can move up among the #2 seeds and play Williams instead. In my opinion, that would be a much more winnable match, and a miracle could get them into the Elite Eight. Either way, it’s a mixed bag, and we’ll have to wait to see how the rest of the season plays out.

D3ASowth: I’m not going to go in too much regional depth like some of the other writers, because I think most of it is self-explanatory.  We have a good idea of who’s damn good team and who’s not really a damn good team.  I will, however, provide my general thoughts on the bracket and what’s to come that will have major implications on the bracket.  My first thought, as always, is Pool C.  I’ve always paid special attention to Pool C and I did a lot of analysis last year regarding the arguments for each team.  Right now, the Pool C teams are listed above.  They’re all basically set right now barring some upsets.  I think the thing to watch for the rest of the season is how some of these borderline teams perform.  Bowdoin is the first team that comes to my mind as a team primed for an upset.  Thing is, they have a win against PP and some other fairly solid wins.  Even if they do take a loss to a team like Tufts, I think they might need another loss to get knocked out.  Another big match to watch next week will be Case vs. Chicago.  Chicago now has the opportunity to get a direct win against a Pool C competitor and only has one bad loss on the season.  If you told me that before the season Chicago would have a legit chance to make the tournament, I would have called you crazy.  Well, it looks like you’re not that crazy anymore.  Despite this fact, Chicago is not going to beat Case any time soon.  Case is still a great team despite this weekends loss, and they’ll be at NCAAs barring something crazy happening.

The second thing I wanted to talk about is the matchups.  Some people might say that this is a boring draw, but I actually like it.  The first 4 regions are a bit cut and dry but you’ll remember that they were the same last year.  I never expect any great matchups from those regions other than maybe the West Region.  People could really overlook Bowdoin/Williams right now.  Let’s remember they’ve both beaten the same teams essentially, and Bowdoin looked fairly good beating PP.  Williams needed a 5-4 victory over that same team.  It’s not like those two are that far apart.  Hopkins/Kenyon shouldn’t be a tough one perse, but remember that Kenyon just brought Emory to 5-4 and Emory just smashed Hopkins.  Both of those are on the Emory courts.  That should be another intriguing match considering Kenyon is pretty good in the NCAA tournament and Hopkins has been notoriously weak.  Obviously, the final two regions will be real dandies between Trinity/Midd on Midds home courts and Case/CMU on CMU’s home courts.  We saw what the Case/CMU match could present this past weekend and I would love if that type of match happened again in the NCAA tournament.  So much pressure.  That’s all I really have to say about the bracketology and I’ll let my fellow writers do most of the talking on this one.

D3NE: Maybe I’m just numb from all of the upsets of late, but my initial thoughts upon first glance fall back to the Geico Gecko. Ever the consummate professional, the Gecko knows that even though Geico can save you 15% or more on car insurance, “it’s a bit boring”. My first thought about this bracket, mirrors the Gecko, it’s a bit boring. Only one or two exciting Sweet 16 matchups, with the unfortunate caveat of both Pomona, Gustavus, and Whitman traveling (although one team will actually be traveling a bit further than the other) to their respective doom. Hop seems as though they should be too strong for Kenyon, although a truly healthy Raz might provide some firework, and we just saw CMU go into Case and come out with a 5-4 win even after being swept in the doubles. Obviously it would be a fun rematch, but I believe CMU will have an easier time taking 1 doubles match than Case will in taking 2 singles matches. If the bracket holds according to The Guru (which I’ll go further into later), Group 7 provides the only mouthwatering sweet 16 matchup in Midd/Trinity Tx. Midd would be hosting, even though Trinity would technically be the #1 seed. That seems like an awfully raw deal for the Tigers, who most of the writers would agree is a top 5 team. Ok, enough of the gutshot reactions. Because we all love D3West (honestly, the man is our version of the Geico Gecko), I’m going to borrow from his format and talk about each of my important (#2 seed or higher) regional teams However, because I’m the fun one of the group, I’m throwing in my own little twist.

NB: #3 seeds, sorry for the lack of coverage (Stevens, Babson, and Skidmore), it’s not that I don’t love you, it’s just that I don’t think you have a chance to make it out of your region. I’m sure you all have great personalities.

The #1 seeds: Amherst & Williams

First thoughts:

Amh: Great region. Their B-team would make the elite 8

Will: Riding the coat-tails of last season. I guess being the defending National Champion has its perks.

Possible Outcomes:

Amh: Unless Amherst loses 3 matches between now and the end of the season, they will remain a #1 seed. In my eyes, they are at the top of a small handful of teams that could possibly challenge CMS. The Jeffs will almost certainly get a #1 seed, and the only thing still up for debate is who else will be in their region.

Will: Williams is a bit of an interesting situation. They’re still riding high from their pre-season #1 ranking, and haven’t lost to a DIII team outside of CMS. They play Middlebury and Amherst before NESCACs. They’ll need to win one of those matches to stay on the top line. That would put them into NESCACs as the #2 seed. If they win their semifinal match they should stay right where they are now; however, if they lose the semifinal to the #3 seed (likely Midd) then the committee could be in a real pickle. All 3 teams would have the potential for a #1 seed, but they would have to jump CMU. If Williams splits with Midd, they should end up as a lower #1 seed, have a tougher Sweet 16 matchup (perhaps Whitman), and have a tougher quarterfinal matchup.

Best (realistic) case scenario:

Amh: If Amherst wins out and WashU loses an UAA match, then Amherst will likely end up as the overall #2 seed. This would give them an easier quarterfinal matchup, but likely not change their group. As long as their on the opposite side of the bracket from the Stags, Amherst will be happy.

Will: The best, realistic case for the Ephs is to hold firm. If they can beat Midd a couple times (much easier said than done) they will end up as a middling #1 seed, and likely host Bowdoin (assuming Bowdoin picks their game up).

The #2 seeds: Middlebury, Bowdoin, MIT

First thoughts:

Midd: That’s a pretty crappy draw. Then again, they do have yet to prove themselves.

Bow: Lucky to still be in the damn tournament. That Pomona win seems like forever ago.

MIT: NEWMAC. It may sound like NESCAC, but the difference is wayyyyyy more than 2 letters.

Possible Outcomes:

Midd: A-S’owth has been rather hard on Midd after catching the live show, but I’m still a believer. I think that their top 3 will compete with any in the country and that Smolyar/Frons are more than capable at 5&6. LIke Williams, Midd’s tournament seeding will depend upon their conference play. They’ve done enough by dispatching Kenyon that they will (at worst) get a pretty high #2 seed. Coincidentally, that is where they stand now, so even if the Panthers go 0/3 against Amherst/Williams/Williams in the regular season/NESCACs, they will still end up around where they are now. However, you all know that I don’t think the Panthers will go 0/3. In fact, I’m going to pick them to beat Williams next weekend. That would immediately bump them up to the top line, where they would still get to host their region, but this time as a #1 seed. If they beat Williams twice, they could end up with Bowdoin, Williams or even a flown in #2 seed. Midd has the potential to jump CMU and or Trinity but they’re gonna have to win at least 2/3 big NESCAC matches to do so.

Bow: Where oh where have my Polar Bears gone? Where or where can they beeeeeee? Bragg was suspiciously missing from the Polar Bear lineup this weekend, and the depleted Polar Bears almost saw their Pool-C lead slip away in their comeback 5-4 win against MIT. Although the Polar Bears have been taking an awful lot of heat recently, they actually haven’t lost since the Stag-Hen. They may be the new “kardiac kids”, but until they actually take a bad loss (like every other freakin team outside of the top 15 has), they have a stranglehold on their at-large status and a middling #2 seed. If the Polar Bears do fall to Tufts this week, given the utter chaos of the other Pool-C teams I’m not convinced they’d be dropped from the bracket. A Bragg-less Bowdoin team needs to be careful, and next weekend’s matchup presents a great opportunity for a Jumbo-sized upset. If Bowdoin handles their NESCAC business, but falls to their top 3 conference foes, Bowdoin will hold tight. If they can beat Williams or Midd, get a top 3 seed, and take revenge in their semifinal matchup (NESCACs are at Bowdoin this year), the Polar Bears might even have an outside shot at that final #1 seed. It sounds weird to say considering their recent play, but Bowdoin is not out of the running to host its region.

MIT: Sorry Engineers, you’re not gonna get nearly as much coverage. You have the benefit of a weak conference and a shallow region. Whether you get Skidmore, Vassar, or RPI, you will undoubtedly have to battle if you’re going to make the Sweet 16. Whichever of that crew does make the Sweet 16 will also likely be the weakest team left in the whole damn tournament. In fact, MIT will need to beat either Tufts or Brandeis if they want to keep their #2 seed. If they lose both, the Liberty League winner could sneak in as the #2 seed.

Best (realistic) case scenarios:

Midd: Middlebury’s realistic best case scenario is basically what I talked about in their previous paragraph. They do look strong enough to beat Bowdoin and Williams, and the Panthers will likely present the best challenge to Amherst as both teams make a run at the conference title. If Midd is the #2 seed in the conference tournament, and handles the Ephs in the semis, they would likely enter NCAAs as a #1 seed. In terms of groups and flying, I assume that Midd would basically get the Williams region from above. Williams would still host their region, but as a #2 seed with Trinity as their #1 seed. Midd wouldn’t get the overall #5 seed, as they would be jumping too many teams, but the #7 overall seed is certainly possible.

Bow: Bowdoin’s best realistic case scenario is exactly what The Guru has predicted for them. They don’t seem like they’ll be able to handle the firepower of a Williams or a Midd. let alone an Amherst team. The best realistic case scenario would be for the Polar Bears to beat the middle of the NESCAC, get the 4 seed in the conference tournament, lose to Amherst in the semis, earn the #2 seed Williams’ region, and use their strong singles play to shock the Ephs and make the quarterfinals.

MIT: MIT can beat both Tufts and Brandeis (though I think they Jumbos are a better team). If they do, they’ll hold strong as the #2 seed in the highest ranked NESCAC team’s region (likely Amherst). Basically, they’re best case scenario is what is shown above. The only way it would be better is if RPI wins the Liberty League, because they Engineers know from the fall that they can win that match.

ASowth: D3Central unfortunately was unable to join us for this edition of bracketology.  He was tending to his sheep out on his farmland, as they were a bit distraught due to the recent weather.  Cheers to D3Central and hope he joins our powwow next time.

Bloggers, out.