Now that team preview season is finally over and done with, I figured I’d try to have a shorter more interactive piece before the season really starts. Here are some of the names you should watch out for this spring when it comes to Individual NCAA bids from the Northeast. I’ve listed any player I believe has a chance, tiered by my opinion of how good of a shot they have, and then included a short description after each group as to why I have them ranked where I do. The players are listed alphabetically within each tier, so don’t read into their placement. The “rankings” at the end of each section list, in my opinion, how likely it is that each player will gain entry into nationals. I am not including doubles teams for the same reason that I did not include them in my team previews: not all are set and some people have just returned from semesters away from school. Just so I don’t lose my “doubles only” readers, my mock top 5 are listed at the end. Individual selections have always been a hot button topic, so please feel free to leave me your preseason predictions in the comments section or tweet at me @D3Northeast.
LOCKS
Joey Fritz (Amherst), Oliver Loutsenko (Skidmore)
Most likely to go in as the #1 over all seed: Loutsenko
Most likely to be left out in the cold: Neither
Most likely to make a deep run at NCAAs: both
Comments: Fritz and Loutsenko are battle tested seniors who, barring injury, will be representing their schools come NCAA time. While both Amherst and Skidmore will likely make the team tournament as well, only Amherst has a real shot to make a quarterfinal run. I believe this hurts Fritz’s chances as it will leave him exhausted; however, both Amherst and Wash U made the final 4 last year and that did not prevent either Kahan or Putt Putz from making the finals.
RANKING: 1) Loutsenko 2) Fritz
VERY LIKELY
Conrad Harron (Williams), Alex Johnston (Middlebury), Brantner Jones (Middlebury), Matt Micheli (Williams), Luke Trinka (Bowdoin)
Most likely to go in as the #1 over all seed: Trinka
Most likely to be left out in the cold: Trinka
Most likely to sneak in and make a deep run at NCAAs: Harron
Comments: I know that picking Trinka to in two of the three categories above might seem a bit counterintuitive, but I’ll defend it. Obviously Luke won the ITA and played the best tennis of his life this fall. However, there is no guarantee that it will carry over through the spring. There could be burnout, there could be injury, perhaps it was even a “fLUKE” (though I highly doubt this). I want to see a bit more from him before I upgrade him to “lock” status. As for the rest of this crew, I trust the three seniors and Conrad just looks damn solid. The biggest question marks for me are Johnston’s fitness and who ends up playing #1 for both Williams and Midd. While the #1 player from those two schools will obviously have the advantage, I believe all 5 of these guys will get in.
RANKING: 1) Trinka 2) Jones 3) Micheli 4) Harron 5) Johnston
POSSIBLE
Timmy Berg (Bates), Noah Bragg (Bowdoin), Nik Telkedzhiev (Tufts) Andrew Yaraghi (Amherst), Edwin Zhang (MIT)
Most likely to go in as the #1 over all seed: Zhang
Most likely to be left out in the cold: Bragg
Most likely to sneak in and make a deep run: Yaraghi
Comments: This is by far the most interesting section. If your math is good and the ‘locks’ and ‘very likelys’ from above hold true, you’ve realized that only one of the players from this section will be selected to compete at NCAAs. Yaraghi is giving everybody else a shot by having a train wreck of a fall, and playing #2 won’t help him (although his #1 is extremely strong so we can’t necessarily hold that against him). Before the fall I’d have put Andrew as one of the ranking members of the class above this one, but he has opened the door. Bragg has been relegated to #2 due to Trinka’s impressive fall display. If Bragg is going to get in playing at #2 after being abroad for the fall tournaments, he will likely have to go virtually undefeated all season. Next we have the three #1’s left in the group. Zhang was the #3 seed at ITAs, but lost to Frons (likely Midd #5) and had to come back from a set down to dispatch Astrachan in the 2nd round. The Black Swan did take Fritz to a super, but also lost to LaBarre in the latter of MIT’s two fall dual matches, which subsequently dropped him from the regional rankings. Though not in the NESCAC, Zhang will get his chance against Berg, Telkedzhiev, and Trinka. Timmy and Nik will get the usual run of NESCAC #1’s and this affords them the opportunity to play their way in. My guess is that Telkedzhiev gets the last spot as he had the most impressive fall, which leaves us with Berg as the alternate. However, if Yaraghi starts regaining the magic of his freshman spring, he immediately jumps to the head of this class.
RANKING: 1) Telkedzhiev 2) Berg 3) Yaraghi 4) Zhang 5) Bragg
SOMEWHAT SURPRISING
Dan Carpenter (Trinity), Palmer Campbell (Middlebury), Matt Heinrich (Stevens Tech), Jake Roberts (Wesleyan), Lil’ Weiss (Williams)
Most likely to get in at all: Heinrich
Most likely to be left out in the cold: Lil’ Weiss
Most likely to sneak in unnoticed and make a deep run: Roberts
Comments: This is a tough category to be in. I could make an argument that every single player listed in this category deserved to get into nationals, but realistically that is simply impossible. Campbell and Lil’ Weiss both are great players and probably two of the best #3’s in the country. But it is just really damn difficult to get in as a #3. Carpenter is a solid #1, but will simply be overmatched by most NESCAC opponents. We don’t really know what we’re going to get from Roberts as he beat Micheli before getting stomped by Trinka at ITAs. Finally there’s Heinrich, who is an interesting case. Matt only has two matches this season that could seriously help him plead his case. Stevens two toughest regional matches are against Skidmore and Bowdoin, meaning matches against Loutsenko and Trinka. If Heinrich wins either of those matches, combined with the rest of his cupcake regional schedule, he could upset a lot of people by nabbing that final singles spot.
RANKING: 1) Heinrich 2) Roberts 3) Carpenter 4) Campbell 5) Weiss
UNLIKELY
Ben Fife (Amherst), Jonah Feit (Whaton), Jay Glickman (Tufts), Matt LaBarre (RPI), Pierre Planche (Bates), Brandon Roode (Nichols), Steven Wu (NYU)
Most likely to get in at all: Wu
Most likely to be left out in the cold: All
Most likely to sneak in unnoticed and make a deep run: Planche
Comments: Here we have the unheralded #1’s of Feit, LaBarre, Roode, and Wu, mixed in with the best of the 2nd level of #2’s. All of the non-NESCACers are currently ranked in the top 20 of the region, with Wu pushing all the way up to #5. That being said, these rankings will change immensely over the next month let alone the entire spring season. While I don’t believe any of this crew will be lucky enough to make individual NCAAs, they still deserved mention. Feit took down Fitzgibbons in the 1st round of the ITA, LaBarre has beaten Zhang, Roode was a seed at ITA, and Wu made the finals of the non NESCAC ITA before falling to Loutsenko. I believe Wu has the best shot simply because he has the highest ranking now, and he is a senior, so perhaps he has that extra bit of motivation. As for the #2’s both Planche and Glickman have the talent to one day get to NCAAs, but I don’t see it happening this year. Planche will likely play behind Berg and Glickman’s fall doesn’t inspire total confidence. Except for Wu, all of these players will have a better shot next year after graduation and can only hope that another year of training helps their case.
RANKING: 1) Wu 2) LaBarre 3) Planche 4) Roode 5) Feit 6) Glickman
Finally, my preseason list of who makes it to NCAAs (alternates in parentheses)
Singles: Loutsenko, Fritz, Trinka, Jones, Micheli, Harron, Johnston, Telkedzhiev, (Berg)
Doubles: Campbell/Jones, Revzin/Solimano, Berg/Planche, Caplan/Wolstencraft (whoever plays #1 for Williams, Micheli/Harron?)
Please tell me just how wrong I’m going to be!
We will see. Thanks for your opinions.
Great post! Guess you know who I’m pulling for.
Now I feel like a total slacker! This was impressive to read and I plan on doing something similar here soon. Some of us (even with the cold) have to work hard and pay attention to previews in early February. So not only am I jealous of the west with the weather, I am jealous of the northeast with no matches! Sorry ASouth, I have nothing to be jealous of with you. Well maybe a little bit with Emory’s B team. I am not sure it says much that the B team is probably in the top 10 teams in the region!