Pool C Update: Who’s In, Who’s Out?

With the release of our second bracketology and the calendar officially hitting April, it’s about time to get a Pool C Update and take a look at what teams are in, what teams are out, and what teams are really out.  Right now, it’s actually a clear cut picture for the top 7 teams in Pool C, as they all have managed to avoid the black hole that is the 20-30 ranking bracket.  Last year, there was a huge debate between three teams as to who should get in and that was mostly because of the random loss by UT-Tyler in their conference tournament.  Prior to that, however, there was still some debate as to who should be in.  Thankfully, there is no doubt right now and I don’t think anyone can complain with the projected selections.  Any team that has avoided a bad loss is in the driver’s seat and everyone else is just hoping for some help.  I’ll break this article out into a few sections based on how strong each team’s chances are to make the Big Dance.

Locks – 100% In

Emory Eagles – ITA Ranking #7

Remaining Schedule – #22 W&L, UAA Tournament

Notable Wins – #9 Kenyon (x2), #15 Redlands, #18 Gustavus, #12 Bowdoin, #8 Case Western, #10 Middlebury, #5 Johns Hopkins

Notable Losses – #5 Johns Hopkins, #2 Wash U

My Thoughts – Let’s start with a really easy one in Emory.  Emory is no doubt going to be in the tournament as a Pool C contender (or better if they win UAA) based on how they are playing and how strong their wins are.  They’ve already beaten Kenyon twice and have wins over 4 Pool C candidates.  They avenged their loss to Hopkins and will most likely be in the top 4 seeds barring an upset in the UAA tournament.

Verdict – Emory takes the rest of their matches up until the finals of the UAA tournament (which means they will beat #11 Carnegie in the process) and either enter the tournament as the highest Pool C candidate or the Pool A rep from the UAA.  Both would present them with a top 4 seed overall and a nice bracket where they’ll face a weaker #2 seed like Whitman, Tyler, or Mary Washington.  Personally, I think they can beat Wash U and if they do so probably notch the #2 overall seed and get Tyler as their seed in the region.  It’s a good time to be an Eagles fan.

Sitting Pretty – > 90% Chance In

Williams Ephs – ITA Ranking #3

Remaining Schedule – #10 Middlebury, Vassar, Bates, Skidmore, #4 Amherst, Trinity CT, #12 Bowdoin, #25 Colby, NESCAC Tournament (probable Middlebury)

Notable Wins: #13 Pomona-Pitzer, #15 Redlands, #20 California Lutheran, Tufts

Notable Losses: #1 CMS

My Thoughts – Williams is sitting pretty right now really because they’ve held serve after their national championship win last year.  While it may not be “fair,” it’s certainly reasonable.  Programs should be rewarded for having great years and I have no problem with it.  If you look at their schedule above, they’ve beaten every team they needed to beat including two Pool C competitors in PP and Redlands.  That basically means they will be in unless they lose to one of their lower ranked NESCAC competitors.  They likely have two huge matchups against Middlebury that will be battles for better seeding in the NCAA tournament.  Their best case scenario is that they beat Middlebury both times out there, beat Bowdoin, and win out against everyone other than Amherst.  That would make them the #3 overall seed and probably a not bad draw in their region.  I don’t think that’s going to happen.  I think they’ll either get beat twice by Midd or at least split the series, but they should be able to win the rest of their matches.  Bowdoin lurks as a potential season-changer because if they lose to Bowdoin, they will be put into the tournament as a high #2 seed.  That makes a big difference as we all know.

Verdict: Williams splits their likely two matches with Middlebury, beats the rest of their opponents other than Amherst, and enters the NCAA tournament as the #8 overall seed, drawing a potential matchup with CMU/Bowdoin/Case.

Carnegie Mellon Tartans – ITA Ranking #11

Remaining Schedule – #9 Kenyon, UAA Tournament

Notable Wins – #12 Bowdoin, #15 Redlands, #18 Gustavus, #13 Pomona-Pitzer, #17 Mary Washington, #22 Washington & Lee, #8 Case Western

Notable Losses – #2 Wash U, #5 Johns Hopkins, #4 Amherst (Fall)

My Thoughts – Carnegie Mellon is probably the only true “lock” right now.  They’ve cemented a #3 seed in the UAA tournament with a likely date with Emory.  Only a loss against the #6 seed in the UAA tournament could potentially crush their Pool C hopes, but I doubt that would even knock them out.  They’ve got 4 wins against Pool C competitors and 0 losses.  Their only losses are to teams either in the top 5 currently or not even in DIII.  It’s been a great year for the Tartans and they’ve earned their way into the tournament after a rough year last year.  Unfortunately, they are not even a lock for a #1 seed.  With Williams and Middlebury benefitting from Williams inflated ranking, a split in that series could force CMU to be the highest #2 seed in the NCAA tournament.  The way CMU can get a #1 seed is simply by beating Kenyon and then beating Emory later on in the UAA tournament.  That’d put them in the top 5 no doubt about it, and a favorable seed in NCAAs.  That’s a tough task and we’ll see if they can do it.

Verdict – I think CMU will take care of Kenyon on their home courts in a week or so, but unfortunately they will face Emory in the UAA semifinal and most likely lose to the upstart Eagles.  That presents a huge match with whoever is in the 3^rd place match that will determine the #2 seeds for CMU/Case (most likely).  I say CMU takes that match and ends up being the highest #2 seed, with a potential of going to Williams but maybe… Hopkins.

Fairly Comfortable – >80% Chance In

Middlebury Panthers – ITA Ranking #10

Remaining Schedule – #3 Williams, Wesleyan, Trinity CT, #12 Bowdoin, RPI, Skidmore, #4 Amherst, Tufts, NESCAC Tournament (likely Williams)

Notable Wins – #9 Kenyon, #18 Gustavus, #25 Colby

Notable Losses – #7 Emory

My Thoughts – Middlebury is in a similar situation as Williams, except they don’t have the benefit of a national championship last year.  We know that Midd is a very good team and one that most likely deserves to be in the top 8.  However, they have yet to prove that as seen by their wins above.  None of their wins are over Pool C competitors, so that’s something we have to watch out for if they suffer a big loss.  The good thing for Middlebury is that they’re definitely a good team.  They just lost 5-4 to an Emory team on the road and notched solid wins over Kenyon and GAC.  Their big matches from here on out are the two potential Williams matches and of course, the Bowdoin match.  One win in any of those three matches basically puts them in if they avoid losses to their unranked opponents.  One thing that they might be scared about is if they lose to Bowdoin and then Bowdoin turns around and loses to one of their unranked opponents.  Same thing with Williams.  Both those scenarios seem unlikely as they would involve Midd losing to a team and then that team losing to a team with much less talent.  I don’t believe that the dominoes will fall that way so Middlebury has a great chance of getting in.

Verdict – I expect Middlebury to take a split against Williams, beat a Bowdoin team that’s reeling a bit, and end up with that #7/8 overall seed and the last #1 seed.  This would give them someone like Kenyon/Bowdoin/Case as a #2 seed.  Another potential upset would be them over Amherst and that’s something that I believe should be talked about more.  Amherst hasn’t made themselves invincible and we’ve surely seen crazier things happen.   If that does happen, the Midd/Williams/Amherst trio would probably populate the mid #1 seeds area with Middlebury potentially being the #4 or #5 overall.  Don’t think it’ll happen, but it’s more possible than you think.

Comfortable – >75% Chance In

Case Western Spartans – ITA Ranking #8

Remaining Schedule – #30 Chicago, #2 Wash U, UAA Tournament

Notable Wins – #9 Kenyon

Notable Losses – #5 Hopkins, #6 Trinity TX, #7 Emory, #11 Carnegie Mellon

My Thoughts – Wow, I bet a lot of you didn’t realize that Case’s only notable win this year is against the reeling Kenyon team by a 5-4 score.  With the way that people have been talking about the Spartans you’d think that they’d have a couple of nice wins on their resume.  Unfortunately, they don’t, and that puts them in a bind because they are one Pool C loss away from becoming a question mark.  They have a HUGE weekend this upcoming weekend against Chicago and Wash U.  Chicago is an especially big match because they are a direct Pool C competitor.  Not to mention, this match is at Chicago so there’s a little home court cooking right there as well.  Case then travels home to play Wash U, which is a match that has been traditionally tight so we could see a huge upset there as well.  Case will most likely enter the UAA tournament as a #4 seed, with ANOTHER date against Chicago that may actually mean nothing if Case wins the first get-together.

Verdict – Case filled their schedule with a lot of boom or bust this year and they were able to get their win over Kenyon at Indoors.  They’re still a very good team despite their recent losses to a couple of their UAA rivals and they’ll see two more again this weekend.  Case is much too prepared for Chicago and I doubt that one even comes close.  Against Wash U, Case could really put a dent into the ITA rankings by winning.  They’ve done it before against Wash U so it’s not out of the question.  However, Wash U has been a different beast this year and they will be sure to take this one seriously.  I see Case staying the course and taking out Chicago twice, losing to Wash U twice, and eventually playing the 3^rd place match likely against CMU.  Again, I see CMU taking that one but either way, this team will be a high #2 seed.  This means potentially facing CMU or even having Trinity TX fly to them.  I’m not the best at bracketology so I’ll refrain from making any crazy predictions.

Pomona-Pitzer Sagehens – ITA Ranking #13

Remaining Schedule – #20 CLU, Occidental, #21 Whittier, SCIAC Tournament

Notable Wins – #17 Mary Washington, #14 Whitman, #30 Chicago, #19 Cruz, #15 Redlands

Notable Losses – #6 Trinity TX, #12 Bowdoin, #11 Carnegie Mellon, #4 Amherst, #3 Williams, #1 CMS

My Thoughts – I actually wanted to put the Sagehens a bit higher in this Pool C recap, especially since the SCIAC almost always gets a second team in, but I just couldn’t based on their season this year.  They’ve beaten who they’ve needed to beat in Mary Washington, Whitman, and Redlands, which gives them the headstart when it comes to a Pool C Spot.  Basically, all they need to do is avoid an upset in the second round of the SCIAC Tournament (either CLU or Redlands) as well as beat CLU to be a lock in the tournament.  Even if they beat CLU in their next matchup, they could be in despite losing in the 2^nd round of the SCIAC.  Their resume isn’t all that much better than that of Redlands except Redlands has a glaring blowout loss to CLU.  Pomona’s season essentially comes down to them making the tournament and then playing CMS and praying that something crazy happens in the “Region of Death.”

My Verdict – D3West and I are in agreement that despite some similar scores, P-P is better than Redlands and CLU without a doubt.  Pomona also benefits from the potential absence of Cummins from the Redlands lineup.  P-P has historically been a tough team to upset and I don’t believe that either of their potential matches will result in an upset, meaning these guys are in.

Last One In – >65% Chance

Bowdoin Polar Bears – ITA Ranking #12

Remaining Schedule – Tufts, #4 Amherst, #26 Colby, #10 Middlebury, Bates, #3 Williams, Stevens, NESCAC Tournament (likely Tufts then Amherst)

Notable Wins – #13 Pomona Pitzer

Notable Losses – #11 Carnegie Mellon, #2 Wash U, #1 CMS, #7 Emory

My Thoughts – The 2014 Polar Bears definitely know how to be the Kardiac Kids of this year.  Bowdoin has gone through their Spring Break schedule as well as some NESCAC matches and come away hanging to their Pool C bid by a thread.  This team had high expectations before the season which they haven’t really met as you can see from their losses.  The only loss that really hurts them is the one to Carnegie, but that one won’t be that bad as CMU is on a tear.  They got the one Pool C win they needed in P-P and that’s the feather in their cap right now.  However, Bowdoin seems ripe for an upset.  They seem to have lost their doubles prowess as they went down a sweep to MIT, which is horrendous.  They may have lost Bragg for a little bit of time which puts them at a very vulnerable position against Tufts this weekend.  That being said, this is a team that has come on the past couple of years and should get some benefit of the doubt.  They’ve avoided the tough loss but still have a ton of them on the schedule they need to get through.  Obviously, they need to beat the lower ranked teams to get into the tournament, but at least the losses to top teams won’t hurt them at all.

My Verdict – There’s never a year where the Pool C debate isn’t interesting.  This is why I think that Bowdoin will lose this weekend to Tufts, especially if Bragg is out.  They always say “when there’s smoke, there’s fire,” and that’s exactly what’s happening right now with this team.  After being knocked out of the tournament last year due to outstanding circumstances, they now have to fight really hard to get into the big dance.  With a singles lineup that is currently 5 deep, I don’t see them beating any of the top teams to solidify their spot.  Watch out for Tufts this weekend because they could certainly throw a huge wrench into the Pool C debate and maybe one of the “Black Hole” teams is able to sneak in.

First Two Out – 35-40% Chance

Redlands Bulldawgs – ITA Rank #15

Remaining Schedule – #21 Whittier,  Cal Tech, Chapman, SCIAC Tournament

Notable Wins – #19 UCSC, #16 UT-Tyler, #17 Mary Washington, #20 Cal Lutheran

Notable Losses – #2 Wash U, #7 Emory, #6 Trinity TX, #11 Carnegie, #14 Whitman, #4 Amherst, #3 Williams, #1 CMS, #13 Pomona, #20 Cal Lutheran

Thoughts: Redlands is by far the team that has the best chance of sneaking into the tournament with a drop from another team.  First off, they have four top 20 wins because they benefit from the loaded California schedule.  That’s a lot of top 20 wins and each one of those is a resume builder that a lot of other teams don’t have.  You’ll notice in their losses that they have that one big loss to Cal Lutheran.  I don’t want to overreact to that match, as it really is only one match.  Every single team below them has one really bad loss and that’s to teams much worse than CLU.  If they can notch a win against Whittier and then potentially upset Pomona in the SCIAC tournament, that means they split the season series with Pomona yet have one bad loss to CLU.  That essentially means they will be the first one out.  However, if Bowdoin falters… Redlands enters.

Verdict – I’ve never been a huge fan of Redlands, but you have to admit they are pretty consistent.  They are in the Pool C discussion every year because they always hover around the 14-16 range in the rankings, which is no different this year.  One thing to note, however, is that we don’t know how serious the injury to Cummins is.  Without Cummins, they lost to CLU 8-1.  That’s a huge difference and definitely something the committee will look at.  Unfortunately, I don’t believe Cummins will be back for the Whittier match, and Whittier goes out and ends the Redlands season by beating them.

Chicago Maroons – ITA Ranking #30

Remaining Schedule – #8 Case Western, Coe, #2 Wash U, Wheaton, UAA Championship

Notable Wins – DePauw, #20 Cal Lutheran

Notable Losses – #9 Kenyon, Wisconsin-Whitewater, #18 Gustavus, #13 Pomona

Thoughts – Yuck. You all know how much I hate putting Chicago in the Pool C game unless I think they really deserve it.  Well, now that everyone and their mother is beating everyone else and their mother, the Maroons are right in the thick of things with a couple of huge matches left.  They have that 1 absolutely terrible loss to the Warhawks, who have proceeded to lose to my high school team and my middle school team.  However, Chicago does sport a win against CLU, which now gives them an indirect over Redlands.  This is what happens when craziness happens at the bottom of the rankings.  Chicago has two huge matches left that they can feasibly win – both of them happen to be against Case Western, a Pool C contender.  If they win of those two matchups, they not only get a win over a direct opponent as well as a win against a top 15 team.  That’s something that could get them in over either Case or Bowdoin should Bowdoin falter.  The spot is ripe for the taking right now, but will Chicago be able to do it?

My Verdict: No. They won’t be able to do it.  Chicago has historically teased us with random bouts of amazingness, but they’ve almost always followed that up with large amounts of disappointment.  There is nothing this year that says they can beat any good team.  Their best win is against CLU which isn’t impressive at all.  Case is on a whole other level than that, and Case should easily be able to take out the Maroons (both times) and put this hope to rest.   Someone bet with me on that.  I dare you.

If the Time is Right – 25-30% Chance

Depauw Tigers – Not ITA Ranked

Remaining Schedule – #18 Gustavus, Wabash, Denison, NCAC Tournament

Notable Wins – Wisconsin-Whitewater, #26 Colby

Notable Losses – #2 Wash U, #30 Chicago, #9 Kenyon

My Thoughts – I put DePauw on here although I don’t think they have any chance of making Pool C.  The reason why I put them on here is because I think it’s possible they could win the NCAC if everything falls correctly.  I guess I shouldn’t have put them on here, but it’s important that you know.  Even if DePauw wins against Gustavus, that’s far from enough to make Pool C.  They already have losses against Chicago and Kenyon, so there shouldn’t be any reason to put them into the pool. However, with the loss of Razumovsky at Kenyon, the Lords become a bit more vulnerable and can be beaten on the right day.  Watch out for DePauw at the end of the year as this will give D3Central something to write about at least!

My Verdict – I will refrain from giving a prediction on the potential NCAC matchups and leave that for D3Central.

Livin’ On a Prayer – 15% Chance

Cal Lutheran Kingsmen – ITA Rank #20

Remaining Schedule – Chapman, #13 Pomona, #19 UCSC, SCIAC Tournament

Notable Wins – #21 Whittier, #15 Redlands

Notable Losses – #6 Trinity TX, #15 Redlands, #9 Kenyon, #17 Mary Washington, #30 Chicago, #3 Williams, #1 CMS

My Thoughts – Holy shit, that’s a lot of losses.  I liked CLU’s chances a lot better before I did that whole Notable Losses section.  The big one that stands out here is the loss to Chicago.  They can handle the loss to Redlands because they just blew them out and will get a chance against Redlands/Pomona in the SCIAC third place match most likely, but that loss to Chicago just sticks out.  CLU will need to absolutely win out other than the finals of SCIAC to get to the tournament in my eyes.  That means another win against Whittier, a win against Cruz, and two wins against Pomona.  It’s a tough road for sure but it’s definitely not impossible.

My Verdict – I just don’t see it happening.  Despite their shellacking of CLU the past week, I don’t think it’s reasonable for them to go on a hot streak and win their way into the tournament.  P-P is just too solid of a team to beat once, let alone twice, for the Kingsmen.  I expect them to get disappointed against Pomona the first time and potentially getting eliminated by Redlands in the SCIAC 3^rd Place Match.

Everyone Else – 1-10% Chance

This is a group that really doesn’t have a big shot at making the tournament.  They either have way too many losses or don’t have enough legit wins to get them in.  I don’t believe in many of these teams and each one of them needs a monster upset like a Williams, Middlebury, etc, to even be considered.  With their resumes, I just don’t see that happening.  I’ve outlined the teams below with their remaining schedules, notable wins, and notable losses but I won’t give my thoughts or verdict.  My verdict for all of them is that they don’t make it.  Long story short right there.

Whittier Poets

Remaining Schedule: #15 Redlands, #13 Pomona, SCIAC

Notable Wins: None

Notable Losses: #19 Cruz, #16 UT-Tyler, #14 Whitman, #4 Amherst, #1 CMS, #20 CLU

Trinity CT Bantams

Remaining Schedule – Wesleyan, Brandeis, #10 Middlebury, #4 Amherst, #3 Williams, Bates, Babson, NESCAC?

Notable Wins – Tufts

Notable Losses – Denison, #12 Bowdoin, Skidmore

Tufts Jumbos

Remaining Schedule – #12 Bowdoin, Bates, Brandeis, MIT, #26 Colby, #10 Middlebury, NESCAC?

Notable Wins – Denison, Wesleyan

Notable Losses – #13 Pomona, Trinity CT, #4 Amherst, #18 Gustavus, #3 Williams

Anyone else that has random losses (includes NYU, Wesleyan, Colby, Washington College)

 

PHEW! That was the longest article I’ve ever written.  That writing spanned across three days and I may have needed some help from my friend named beer to get this thing done.  I think this is a great cheat sheet for all of you avid Pool C fans if you are trying to decide who should be in and who should be out.  I hope this article wasn’t too long for you, I really tried to go in detail and give you the best I could get.  As always, comments are much appreciated and I would not be surprised at all if I missed something.  By the way, have any of you noticed that D3Northeast hasn’t posted anything this week?  He’s probably back in the Mexican drug dens again.  What a piece of shit.  ASouth, OUT.