Pool C Update #7 – Not Dead Yet

You know what it is. Another Pool C Update, which will make that #7 on the year. D3ASW will now make fun of me in the power rankings because he is the biggest fan of Pool C that I know. With today’s results, this will be a very abbreviated view in what to expect from Pool C if certain things happen today in the NESCAC tournament.  Now that Williams is basically knocked out, you’d think we had nothing to talk about.  But, we always have something to talk about because we ALWAYS see weird crap happening with the NCAA. As always, scenario work seems to work the best and gets some blood flowing, so let’s stick with that for this Pool C Update.  Let’s also remember that the SCIAC is going on right now as well, which could have some Pool C side-effects.

Assumptions

• CMS wins the SCIAC and does not get dropped into Pool C.
• Middlebury wins the NESCAC.
• Emory has already won the UAA, this is just a fact.
• All other conferences do not get any Pool C bids.
• Spoiler alert – The UAA has locked in 2 bids already. I had previously thought that the UAA had locked in three bids already, but that doesn’t seem to be the case.  There is potential for craziness!

Quick Rundown of Teams

Bowdoin – Bowdoin is in the tournament via Pool C or Pool A.  Even a loss to Amherst tomorrow will not drop them out.

Wash U – Wash U is in the tournament as the 5^th or 6^th overall seed at this point with a strong UAA.  You can make your arguments about their resume, which is fine, but they are in.  Just deal with it.

CMU – CMU is also in as either the 4^th or 5^th or 6^th overall seed with their strong UAA.  They have a fairly strong resume overall as well.  CMU’s regular season is over and they are now training for the NCAA Regionals.

Chicago – I’m going to take an excerpt from last article because it’s easier.  Let’s take a look at Chicago’s resume.  They currently have wins against Case Western, Wash U, Stevens, Tufts, Kenyon, UW-Whitewater, and Gustavus.  Notice how their only big wins have come against Case Western and Wash U.  However, they have also lost to both of those teams, and those losses have come most recently.  Chicago has also lost to CMU, CMS, and Emory on the year. They do not have any other losses outside of those teams.  Chicago overall has a strong resume of wins and that is the argument for them.

Case – Case got absolutely shafted by UAA seeding and now have to wait for the NCAA to review their resume before they get that NCAA call.  They have wins against Wash U, CMU, Gustavus, Coe, Brandeis, and Chicago.  However, they have more recent losses to both Wash U and CMU that is really hurting them.  They are helped by the fact that they beat Chicago most recently.  However, they are hurt by the fact that they don’t have a ton of resume wins and were unable to schedule Kenyon for the 5^th place Stag-Hen match.  They also had a match against Hopkins that was dropped off the schedule, which is mysterious but hurts them.

Wesleyan – Wesleyan is back on my radar as they now have the opportunity to get a huge win on their resume. Let’s take a look at what they’ve done so far.

Wins: Amherst, Tuftsx2, Redlands, Trinity TX, Stevens, Bates, Brandeis

Losses: Pomona, Williams, Middlebury, Bowdoin

Wesleyan has a huge opportunity tomorrow to take out Middlebury and put themselves in the NESCAC final.  Now, this win would give Wesleyan a solid resume but they would still have a ton of losses to direct Pool C competitors.  However, it is extremely possible that the committee looks at late season play and sees a team that took out the #3 team in the nation and finished in the top 2 in the best or second best conference in the nation.  That is a strong argument and could potentially put them in.

Amherst – Amherst is a bit of a different story, because they simply have so many damn losses.  They took out Williams today in a big rivalry match and basically ended Williams season.  But, Amherst has losses to Wesleyan, Tufts, Williams, Bowdoin, Middlebury, and CMS on the year.  They’ve basically lost to all of their NESCAC competitors and are just making a run here at the end.  They don’t have wins over Wesleyan or Tufts either, PLUS they lost to Bowdoin 9-0 earlier in the year.  What they are banking on is that the NCAA sees a big name in “Amherst” and sees a second place finish in the NESCAC and throws them in to get another NESCAC team in there.

Williams – Williams is out of the tournament at this point.

Tufts – Tufts is also out of the tournament at this point.

W2W4

Tomorrow presents some big matches in the NESCAC as well as a SCIAC matchup that is worth watching.

Wesleyan vs. Middlebury, 2PM Today (most likely around 3PM knowing how matches go)

Amherst vs Bowdoin, 4:30 Today (most likely around 7PM knowing how matches go)

Pomona vs. Redlands, 1PM Today

Winners of these matches will move onto their conference finals to fight for a potential Pool A spot.  There’s a lot at stake on what I call Super Saturday (if only the UAA played their tournament now).  So, let’s move into some scenarios.

Scenarios (from most likely to least likely)

To start off, remember that there are basically two at-large bids at hand.  Right now, I’d say those belong to Chicago and Case Western.  But, Wesleyan and Amherst are looking to make big runs and throwing the NCAA committee for a loop.  The UAA teams are hoping that everyone just settles down and chills. C’mon, it’s Game of Thrones season. Just save your Sundays for TV, right?  Okay, scenarios below.

If Middlebury def. Wesleyan, Bowdoin def. Amherst, CMS wins SCIAC

This is what happens if everything goes chalk.  Neither Wesleyan and definitely not Amherst have the wins to overtake either Case or Chicago for the last spot.  That means that we simply go chalk into the NCAA Tournament and the NCAA most likely picks Chicago and Case Western for the final Pool C spots.  There really is no argument here for anything otherwise, unless people just go crazy.

If Wesleyan def. Middlebury, Bowdoin def. Amherst, Bowdoin def. Wesleyan in final, CMS wins SCIAC

Note that if one of the NESCAC teams pulls an upset today, this means they get another match in the final, which is included in the scenario above.  IF Wesleyan wins, they get a shot at Bowdoin and a chance to just win the Pool A spot outright.  However, in this scenario they do not.  Wesleyan would have that big win over Middlebury in late-season play and a second place finish in the NESCAC Tournament.  I think in this scenario, Chicago/Case gets one Pool C Spot and Wesleyan grabs the final spot.  Case or Chicago is knocked out of the tournament.  Reason why I think this is that I believe the NCAA will do anything in their power within fairness to not get 4 UAA teams in the tournament.  While this is stupid and potentially very unfair, I believe there is a distinct possibility.  There would be one team that would be very, very, unhappy no matter what.

If Middlebury def. Wesleyan, Amherst def. Bowdoin, Middlebury def. Amherst in final, CMS wins SCIAC

This is a scenario in which Amherst makes the final but does not win it.  Again, like I mentioned in the above team-by-team section, I personally don’t think that Amherst has the goods to make it via Pool C.  But that is just out of my unbiased opinion.  Well, as unbiased as it can be.  In this scenario, I believe Amherst gets bogged down by losses, and Chicago and Case still make the tournament.

If Wesleyan def. Midd, Bowdoin def. Amherst, Wesleyan def. Bowdoin, CMS wins SCIAC

Wesleyan wins the Pool A bid in this scenario, meaning that things get really crazy.  This is the equivalent of a random team winning a conference tournament and just knocking out a very deserving team.  Remember when UT-Dallas beat UT-Tyler that one year?  This would be similar.  Well, Wesleyan would lock in a Pool A bid, meaning they don’t even need to be mentioned in this article.  In this scenario, Middlebury and Bowdoin would both hold Pool C Bids.  That means one of Case or Chicago would be knocked out.

If Midd def. Wesleyan, Amherst def. Bowdoin, Amherst def. Midd, CMS wins SCIAC

This is basically the same scenario as the last bullet, just with Amherst winning.  Again, Amherst gets locked in via Pool A, leaving the rest of the NESCAC to battle it out with the UAA for Pool C bids.  Again, Middlebury and Bowdoin lock in some bids (despite Bowdoin really struggling at the end) and Case or Chicago would be knocked out.

DEATH SCENARIO

If Wesleyan def. Midd, Amherst def. Bowdoin, Amherst def. Wesleyan, CMS wins SCIAC

Ah! This is equivalent to the trainwreck that was the final season of LOST.  In this scenario, Amherst defeats Wesleyan and locks in a Pool A bid.  Thing is, there are three teams in the NESCAC with viable Pool C arguments in Middlebury, Bowdoin, and Wesleyan.  Middlebury would basically be locked in with only one bad loss on the year (to Wesleyan).  Bowdoin and Wesleyan would kind of be sitting there waiting for NCAA verdicts.  Bowdoin has the losses to Tufts AND Amherst in this scenario, but Wesleyan would have way more losses.  In this scenario, I believe Middlebury, Bowdoin, and one of Case or Chicago would be in.  Wesleyan and Case/Chicago would be left out.

DEATH SCENARIO #2

If Wesleyan def. Midd, Amherst def. Bowdoin, Wesleyan def. Amherst, CMS wins SCIAC

This death scenario actually isn’t as bad as Death Scenario #1.  It’s like a sequel.  I just don’t think Amherst has the resume to overtake either of the UAA teams in Pool C and they would have lost to Wesleyan again in this one.  In this scenario, Middlebury, Bowdoin, and one of Case or Chicago would be in.  Amherst and Case/Chicago would be left out.  Wesleyan would make it via Pool A.

MEGADEATH SCENARIO

If Wesleyan def. Midd, Amherst def. Bowdoin, Pomona wins SCIAC

Oh my! Now this is just utter craziness.  I don’t think this is very likely with the way CMS is playing, but you never know.  This is a scenario where both Middlebury and Bowdoin lose AND Pomona wins the SCIAC.  This would drop two potential Pool A teams into the Pool C bucket (CMS and Middlebury), meaning everyone’s about to get shafted.  There’s no way to keep CMS or Middlebury out of the tournament with their resumes.  SO, the 5 Pool C teams would be CMS, Middlebury, CMU, Wash U, and Bowdoin.  Everyone else gets knocked out and Pomona and Wesleyan/Amherst are in via Pool A. WOW!!! I kind of hope that happens because that would be freaking epic.  I wouldn’t want to do a bracketology after that crazy scenario.

Who Am I Rooting For?

This is really easy.  Case and Chicago are rooting for Middlebury and Bowdoin and CMS.  They just want everything to stay the same.  Wesleyan is rooting for themselves to win.  However, it’s funny because if they win they will be playing for Pool A.  They would want to play Amherst for Pool A, obviously.  But, if they lose to Amherst, that makes their resume worse for Pool C.  So, Wesleyan is rooting for themselves (obviously) and probably Amherst because that gives them the best chance to get to Pool A.  Amherst is rooting for the same, just with Wesleyan on the other side of the equation.

And for us bloggers, we are rooting for some craziness that you can follow tomorrow via live twitter feed.  Happy Mother’s Day to all the amazing moms out there.  I’ll have a couple articles out on Mother’s Day because my mom is super chill with the blog.  I think she thinks I’m crazy for doing it, but she figures hey, whatever makes him happy.  I love Mom.  And, I love you all.  ASouth, OUT.