Pool C Update #3 – Well, This Sucks

Welcome to another Pool C Update from yours truly, D3AS. In the midst of all the things happening on the Blog, such as the Recruiting Hub, we still need to report out on things that are happening around the DIII Tennis world.  Right now, the clear and most heated debate comes determining the last team to get in via Pool C.  If you are not familiar with what is going on in Pool C and stuff, get with the program by clicking the following link below. From there, you can go on a blog article rabbit hole that will probably end up with you watching cute puppies on Youtube, somehow.

http://www.division3tennis.com/asouth-update-pool-c-check-2/

Quickly, let’s get into a recap of this past week, because it’s important.  The table below will show who beat who, but some people forget or are visually challenged.

UAA Tournament – CMU beat Case, lost to Chicago.  Case lost to Brandeis (this is important).

Wesleyan beat Middlebury!

Amherst beat Wesleyan!

Williams lost to Bowdoin.

Okay, those are really the most important things that happened this past week or so that could affect Pool C.  Let’s get to the table.

What Changed?

Well, the first thing to note that changed is that there are two teams that really, really helped themselves this weekend. Wesleyan beat Middlebury, the #1 team in the nation, and basically sent themselves into the NCAA Tournament with a huge win.  Amherst did the same, with a win over the aforementioned Wesleyan.  Amherst, as you can see, has 7 top 30 wins and 2 losses to the #2 and #3 teams in the nation.  Amherst has a great resume with one great win (Wesleyan) and they are basically in barring a MAMMOTH collapse. What this looks like to me is that 5 of our 6 Pool C teams are basically set.  The UAA no longer has any matches and the NESCAC has a few, so there are still things that could change, but the battle for the last spot basically comes down to CMU vs. Williams.  Since we at the Blog love Pool C updates, we must of course go through this debate.

CMU vs. Williams  

According to my fellow bloggers, the criteria is the following for NCAA selection.  A combination of head to head, late season play, strength of schedule, winning percentage, late season winning percentage and common opponents. There might be one more missing, but for the most part that’s covered. Now, let’s get to arguments for both teams.  Please remember that all of this could be moot if Williams wins one of their remaining matches (either against Amherst or first round of the NESCAC), as both those teams should be ranked ahead of CMU in the next ITA rankings.

Why WIlliams?

A basic question and one that D3West feels very strongly about, but I think there is really one path for why Williams should get in, and that is because of their “Best Wins” in their resume.  When we compare the two resumes, what we see is two teams that have basically beaten everyone they should have on their schedule and lost to all the top 8 teams that they’ve played.  CMU and Williams will basically be 9 and 10 in the next rankings (in whatever order) and that makes for a very interesting debate.  Williams has wins over #11 Redlands and #12 Pomona Pitzer.  These two wins are better than any win that is on the CMU resume, especially with Case Western’s loss to Brandeis this past weekend (which will probably drop them down to #15 at least). Williams can boast that they have two top 15 wins and CMU does not have that.  That really is the crux of their argument.  They don’t seem to have a stronger strength of schedule (it might even be weaker) and late season play nothing really sticks out.  Obviously, these two teams don’t have a H2H to fall back on. Anyways, Williams has two top 15 wins and that should put them in the tournament, right?

Why CMU?

While WIlliams does have those “best wins,” I think the resume argument can be argued in a different fashion for CMU. Judging by the table above, CMU and Williams have the same amount of top 10 losses (at the moment).  However, if Williams loses to Amherst and in the 4/5 match in the NESCAC, that gives them two more losses.  Looking at the CMU resume, they do have EIGHT Top 30 wins. While they do not have the best wins that Williams does, their best win will probably still be either Case Western or Johns Hopkins, who should be in the top 20.  They will have potentially 5 more top 30 wins than Williams at the end of the season, with less losses – their winning percentage will be better.  If we are arguing resume, the question to be brought up is this – should CMU be penalized because the teams that they beat are having down years? Why should CMU be the team that is penalized for other team’s failures? For example, what if CMU was unable to schedule PP or Redlands (they scheduled CMS).  Should they be penalized for this? Also, commenter AMT brings up a good point for CMU – it’s not like Williams hasn’t lost to a team that CMU hasn’t lost to.  Both teams have lost to Chicago by the same score. There are no real indications that either team is better than the other, and despite playing in the NESCAC, Williams doesn’t have the sheer number of wins as CMU.

The Verdict

I am sorry to say that I do not have a verdict.  Both teams have arguments for the last Pool C spot and I do not want to say that either one should come out of this with the spot, because I feel that would be unfair to the other team. Additionally, I hope the NCAA does not decide on these two teams based on which one saves more money/creates a fairer bracket/other outside factors, because the decision should be made purely based on play.  The Guru will be coming out with a Bracketology later on today explaining what a draw would look like if either of the two teams get in, so feel free to check back later.  Until then, let’s debate in the comments (I see that some debate has already appeared in Power Rankings) and feel free to bring back arguments that have already been made. By the way, do you all know how this would easily be solved? Getting 7 Pool C spots like we have constantly suggested is a sweet spot number for Pool C.

PSA: If you have not yet checked out the Recruiting Hub, please do so by clicking the Hub in the menu bar.  Anyways, go to town on this argument and check back later for some more NCAA Tournament stuff! ASouth, OUT!

4 thoughts on “Pool C Update #3 – Well, This Sucks

  1. Tennis Bruh

    Brandeis still has Tufts left on their schedule. They also still have yet to reschedule their match against Amherst. If everything went right for Deis, could they get a pool C spot? I know it’s a a big “IF”

    1. D3 Northeast

      If they were to beat Tufts, reschedule and beat Amherst, it’d be a great start. But they’d still have losses to Redlands, Bates and NYU (even with the avenged NYU loss, the original loss still counts for something). It would certainly be an interesting discussion, and would probably push the Judges into the table above, but no, I feel fairly confident in saying that even if all that happened they would not receive a pool-C spot.

  2. D3Fan

    One other common reference point is CMS: CMU lost 2-7 while Williams lost 3-6.

    1. D3AtlanticSouth

      Correct! Good call. I think same thing there, can’t really say which team is better at that point. Makes this argument very tough.

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