NE/West Midweek Musings

NE/West Midweek Musings

The Headmaster sends out a weekly email to all the bloggers detailing the week’s schedule and what needs to be done. We had Wednesday circled due to two BIG matches between the NE and the West. Bowdoin vs Redlands and Williams vs Pomona-Pitzer, both of which could end up with some major Pool-C implications, made for a big day of tennis. However, Bowdoin and Redlands got rescheduled for Tuesday afternoon instead. Therefore, D3West and I (and perhaps the Headmaster himself) are here to give you our quick thoughts on the rescheduled match and tomorrow’s bout between Williams and the Pizzeria.

#3 Bowdoin @ #11 Redlands

Bowdoin Power 6: Luke Tercek (12.49), Grant Urken (13.18), Kyle Wolfe (12.61), Jerry Jiang (12.47), Gil Roddy (12.64), Luke Carstens (11.58).

Redlands Power 6: 71.83. Chase Lipscomb (12.50), Parker Wilson (12.53), Joey Dulle (11.96), Jake Ly (12.39), Tom Suchodolski (11.00), Avery Davis (11.45)

Lil Lipscomb is known for his big breakfasts

NE: Quick thoughts here as we want to get this out into the blogosphere ASAP considering the match starts this afternoon. Redlands had a wonderful start to the season, but it came crashing down against Wesleyan last week. The Dawgs were behind in doubles against PP, who have struggled in dubs so far this year, and got swept by the Cards. A valiant comeback made the match close, but Bowdoin should be a stronger version of Wesleyan. They aren’t weak at any position, they play good doubles, and they’re really strong where Redlands is too (the middle of the lineup). I think Bowdoin is more likely to sweep the doubles then go down heading into singles, and while CMS may have orchestrated a magical comeback last week, this ain’t the same thing. Looking at the UTRs above, it is interesting that Tercek has a lower rating than any of the other guys in the singles lineup save for Carstens. Lil’ Lipscomb has been playing well, but other than #1 I don’t see a singles spot where Redlands is favored either. 8-1 seems too unlikely of a beatdown, but I think Bowdoin takes a big lead after doubles and holds on for a comfortable 7-2 win over an ITA top-10 team.

West: I’m about to go into overdrive blurb-wise. Bowdoin is clearly the huge favorite here. They have a massive UTR advantage that actually belies how favorable a matchup this is for the Polar Bears. Bowdoin has been playing great doubles so far in this young season (going 8-1 in doubles at the Sage-Hen), while Redlands has really been struggling against good teams, going down in doubles against PP, Wesleyan, and Christopher Newport. Redlands is definitely a top 10 singles team, and their UTR will continue to increase as Suchodolski’s rating catches up to his recent results, but Bowdoin has the advantage everywhere but #1 singles. I think Bowdoin will sweep dubs, as they have been doing, and hold on for a 7-2 victory with wins at 2-5 singles. That being said, we all know Redlands is capable of the one-off good doubles day, and if they can manage to take two doubles spots (#1 and #3 seem most likely), this will become a very, very close match.

Urken is the key. Finkle is Einhorn

AS: Not going to get into the matchup here, but we’ve seen both of these teams play this season and we pretty much know what to expect from both of em. Bowdoin is a clear favorite in this match but anyone that has played in the Redlands desert knows it’s not a very fun place to play. Either way, this is a match with two teams from the Power-3 conferences (NESCAC, UAA, SCIAC), so you can imagine the implications if an upset is pulled here. However, Redlands just took the L to Wesleyan in a tough one, so the upset looks like about a 5-10% chance at best.  Some things I’m looking out for here are – the top 2 singles spots. Tercek and Urken haven’t been the beacon of solidarity at the top 2 that D3NE has hoped, and the Polar Bears continue to rely on their absurd depth to get them through matches. I’d love to see Urken take out a strong player in Parker Wilson in straights, but we shall see. Urken really is a key to the Polar Bear season so every match we’ll be looking for steady improvement.

#10 Williams @ #13 Pomona-Pitzer, 7 p.m. EST

Williams Power 6: 73.76. Rohan Shastri (11.61), Brian Grodecki (13.03), Sachin Raghavan (11.94), Deepak Indrakanti (12.68), Alex Taylor (12.17), Jordan Sadowsky (12.33).

PP Power 6: 73.14. Jake Yasgoor (13.35), Graham Maassen (12.21), Antony Bello (11.79), Josh Kim (11.88), Marko Mandic (11.90), Josh Gearou (12.01).

NE: Assuming Bowdoin beats Redlands, this is this week’s match with the biggest Pool-C implications. We haven’t seen too much from Williams yet. The Ephs take on Chapman today, but all that will do is possibly confirm lineup spots moving into tomorrow’s match with PP. The Ephs and SageHens have played each of the last four years, with all three of the most recent matches coming down to the wire, Williams won 5-4 in 2014, PP 6-3 in 2015, and Williams 5-4 again last spring. Last year’s match was an instant-classic with Grodecki beating John Kim 7-5 in the 3rd for the 5-4 team win. However, that match had nothing on the 2014 match, when PP took a 4-2 lead after singles wins from Weichart, Maassen, and Josh Kim before Williams rallied back to win #2/#3/#5 singles all in 3-setters. I believe Raventos saved match points against Bello at #5 in both the 2nd and 3rd sets to end up winning that match.

Freshman Alex Taylor will have a tough battle with Marko Mandic

Looking ahead to tomorrow’s match, it’s very tough to predict exactly how good Williams is at this point in the season. D3AS is doubting them just like he always does, but I like this group of younger and very talented players. After a tough fall, a resurgent Rohan Shastri (actually from Williamstown, MA), is back at the top of the lineup, which can only mean good things for the Ephs. West is big on the doubles for this match, and I totally agree. However, it should be unsurprising that we see result playing out slightly differently. I like the Ephs to take a 2-1 lead going into singles. From there, Yasgoor has been playing out of his mind since they moved back outdoors and he should be favored against Shastri. #2 should be a battle, and i think it’s a match that Maassen and PP have to win if they are going to win the match. I like Williams at #3 and #4 where Ragahavan and Indrakanti could be very strong players this year, but like the grinding game of Gearou to frustrate Sadowsky at #6. I left #5 for last because I think it’s a match where most people will pick Mandic, and with good reason. He’s got the experience and has come up big in the past. However, I’ve been big on Alex Taylor all fall, and I’m really looking forward to seeing what the extremely talented freshman brings to the table in this match. I have Williams winning another nailbiter, getting their 5th point from either #2 or #5 singles.

GOBLET OF FIRE

West: This isn’t exactly a must-win for Pomona-Pitzer, but with several direct Pool C losses (Wash U, Bowdoin, Redlands), the Hens are certainly starting to get into the must-win-ish arena for some of these big Pool C matches. The good news for them is that Yasgoor is playing like an absolute monster, and they’re still one of the deepest teams in the country. They’re also going against a Williams team that will be playing their first big DIII match of the season. The bad news is that they still haven’t really gotten their doubles to where it needs to be. I don’t really know much about the Williams team this season, but they’re looking to bounce back after a relatively disappointing 2016 campaign, and are loaded with talent, as always. Anyways, as NE just gave you a history lesson above, it shouldn’t surprise you that I think this one is going to be an absolute barnburner. I believe the team that takes the doubles lead is going to end up winning the whole thing, and I’m actually going to go with Pomona-Pitzer here. I think the seniors, Simonides and Bello, get off the schneid at #1 doubles while Yasgoor and Maassen continue to roll at #2 to give PP a 2-1 lead. After that, I think Yasgoor continues his hot streak at #1, Josh Kim wins a third consecutive match at #4, and Mandic picks up the pieces with a 3-set win at #5 for a 5-4 Pomona-Pitzer win.
AS: I don’t have much to say here because I don’t want to say anything about Williams before I’ve seen them play, but this is shaping up to be a classic 5-4 match. Let’s just see what happens.

 

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