Welcome, boys and girls, to the wonderful world of NESCACs. A grueling conference championship that even without the glitz and glamour (sorry UAAs, we don’t all get a fancy banquet or anything of the sort) has produced four of the past five national champions. This is the weekend that usually separates the national contenders from the NESCAC pretenders. Each of the NESCAC national champions of the past five years won the NESCAC Tournament before NCAAs.
The past two years, the national champion entered the postseason tournament as the #2 seed, and upset the #1 seed in the tournament finals to start them on their path to postseason glory. This year, Amherst looks to be the class of the CAC, and the 2nd best team in the country.
However, stranger things have happened than a NESCAC upset. Could this be just the prodding Middlebury needs to awaken the sleeping Panther inside them and challenge for the NCAA title? Perhaps this is where Bowdoin makes their leap and truly become one of the conference’s elite. We could even witness a first round upset this year, something we’ve only seen once in the past six years. Get pumped, it’s time to take a look at the teams headed to Vermont!
#6 Trinity Bantams
Why they’ll succeed: One word, seniors. Unlike Hopkins, not all seniors seem to have fizzled out of late, and Trinity’s seniors led the Bants to a surprise bid in the conference tournament. Ok, it hasn’t been a surprise for over a month now, but all the DIII NE pundits had Trinity finishing outside of the top-6 at the beginning of the season. They have the experience, and they have the depth to stick with a deep Bowdoin team
Why they’ll fizzle: This crop of seniors have never quite been able to win the big match. Wesleyan and Tufts this year were good wins, but this current team has never been out of the NESCAC quarters. They may be desperate, but they drew the tough matchup unenviable matchup of Bowdoin in the 1st round, who is one of the few teams in the conference with more depth than the Bantams.
Senior looking to finish off a career: The Fab-5. This is a bit of a cop-out, but Trinity Ct actually has five starting seniors in this year’s lineup. Carpenter, Mbithi, Levin, and Mandel, and Myers have all played their roles over the years, but unless the Bants win NESCACs, this will be the starting seniors last hurrah! It’s tough to pick just one to highlight, but Ilya Levin really has had a remarkable year at #5 singles, going undefeated through the spring. Levin will have a tough matchup with either Tercek or Wolstencroft in the quarters.
Underclassman to watch: Rutendo Matingo. This was an easy choice, as Rutendo is the only underclassmen in the Trinity starting lineup! He will be the underdog vs. fellow underclassmen Wolfe, but his real damage could be done at #3 doubles. #3 dubs will likely be the closest spot, so this would be a big point for either team.
Prediction: I think Trinity continues to surprise some folks, and takes two doubles points and a lead on Bowdoin. However, Bowdoin does what they always seem to do and get the necessary singles points. Close quarterfinal loss to Bowdoin.
#5 Williams Ephs
Why they’ll succeed: Whether we remember or not, this team is just two years removed from a national championship! Coach Greenberg is one of the best in the business, and the Ephs finally played up to their potential with an 8-1 thumping of Bates in the regular season finale. Williams will always bring the intensity in doubles, and they’ll be playing a Tufts team that I don’t believe has ever won a round at NESCACs. Even if they are the seeded underdogs, the Ephs certainly don’t feel that way
Why they’ll fizzle: Two years is a long time. Now that Lil’ Weiss is out of the singles lineup, the Ephs don’t have one singles starter remaining from their NCAA run in 2013. Schidlovksy and Astrachan played dubs for that team, but neither guy has been nearly as imposing as Eph fans might have hoped. This Eph team did beat down Trinity and Bates, but those teams are both below them in the conference standings. In fact, Williams was beaten by their first round opponent, Tufts, just a couple of weeks ago. This Williams team just doesn’t appear to have the same panache as in years past, and even if they get by Tufts in the first round, a semifinal date with Amherst awaits.
Senior looking to finish off a career: None. Surprisingly enough, the Ephs don’t have a single senior on their roster. Raventos, Schidlovsky, Astrachan, and Lil’ Weiss are all juniors. If the Ephs work hard over this offseason, they may return to national prominence next year!
Underclassmen to watch: While the Ephs have a couple of freshmen starters, Brian Grodecki has been the best of the bunch. Grodecki just took down Battle (Tufts), Traff (Trinity Ct), and Tercek (Bowdoin) to end his regular season, all of which are great wins. The freshmen, who also plays #3 dubs, should get a rematch with Battle in the quarterfinals.
Prediction: For whatever reason, I’m having a very hard time predicting this match. Tufts beat Williams 6-3 less than two weeks ago, but they did so by sweeping dubs. Again, the dubs will be especially important because the match is only played to decision. If a team goes up 3-0, mentally it’s even harder to come back. Close quarterfinal loss to Tufts, maybe even an epic 5-4 match.
#4 Tufts Jumbos
Why they’ll succeed: No team (with the exception of Amherst) is hotter than Tufts. The Jumbos have won five out of their last six matches, including wins over Bates and Williams. The mid-season lineup switch made by Coach Gregor has worked beautifully, and it looks as though the Bulgarian Contrarian might just be starting to hit his stride (with straight set wins over Planche and Trinka, and easy doubles wins in his past two matches). Tufts has a first round date with Williams, and in case you haven’t been reading the rest of the article, Tufts beat Williams 6-3 on April 19 (for the first time in 25 flipping years). They have the confidence, they have the swagger, now let’s see if the Jumbos can advance to the NESCAC semis for possibly the first time in school history.
Why they’ll fizzle: The last line of the above paragraph. Tufts has never been here before. While there has to be a first time for everything there is also a reason that patterns develop. Williams has the experience, and has the history on their side. NESCACs are a whole different beast than a regular season match, especially considering the last time Tufts beat Williams they were in the friendly confines of Voute. If the moment gets to any of the Jumbos, it could be a slippery slope against an Eph team foaming at the mouth for a piece of revenge.
Senior looking to finish off a career: Brian Tan. Tan took home a nice 3-set win at #5 over Washington & Lee on senior day, but B-Money will likely not be in the lineup come Friday morning. Tan is a really solid doubles player, but I don’t see Coach Gregor messing with the #3 team of Brockman and Ali that only has one loss this spring. That being said, Tan is the lone senior on this Jumbo squad, a captain, and now effectively a 3rd coach. He wants this more than anyone, and I’d love to be in the pre-match huddle to hear his pump-up speech on Friday.
Underclassmen to watch: Rohan Gupte. Tough choice between Gupte and Zain Ali, but Gupte has just been the man. He’s 6-1 at #1 dubs since making the switch from #2, and he’s 5-1 at #2 singles this year. Not too shabby for a guy that started off the year as the team’s #6. Gupte took down Shastri in two tight sets last time they played, and that will be a crucial point in this match as well.
Prediction: I don’t see a dubs sweep this time, but I still like Tufts to come out on top. I can’t see it being a run-away, but see Tufts getting wins at #1, #2, and #5 singles. The semifinals should be a different story, but more on that to come. Close quarterfinal win over Williams, not so close semifinal loss vs Amherst.
#3 Bowdoin Polar Bears
Why they’ll succeed: Depth, freshmen, and a terrifying mascot. Bowdoin’s strengths all year have been their depth and their freshmen, which are one and the same. Wolfe at #3, Tercek at #4/5, and Roddy at #6 have combined to go 39-11 over their first years, and four of the six losses taken by Tercek and Roddy have been in superbreakers. That’s insanity. Bowdoin doesn’t get the best first round matchup in Trinity Ct, who is also quite deep, but the Polar Bears are deeper. Bowdoin beat Trin 6-3 in Cali way back in March. That time, Trinity took two doubles points, and in order for Bowdoin to succeed, they’ll need to get at least 1 doubles point again on Friday. Bowdoin comes into NESCACs with a hot hand, having defeated Tufts and Williams and Ivies in consecutive days last weekend.
Why they’ll fizzle: In a word, doubles. Bowdoin has been behind in 8 of 12 matches against top-30 teams after doubles. That includes doubles deficits to Bates and Trinity Ct. Not good, Polar Bears, not good. Ilya Levin didn’t play in the first meeting between the Bantams and the Polar Bears, and he hasn’t lost a match so far this year at #5. Also, where the hell is Chase Savage? Bowdoin always keeps their info on lock down, but I haven’t heard a thing about Savage for a couple of weeks now. If he’s healthy, Bowdoin should be just fine, but if he’s not, things could get interesting real quickly.
Senior looking to finish off a career: Noah Bragg. Bragg and his tinted glasses have become a hallmark of Bowdoin tennis. One of the nicest guys out there, Noah has had an up and down year. He has wins over Shastri (Williams), Arguello (Deis), Chen (Wesleyan), and Hewlin (Whitman), but has also taken a lot of losses (granted no terrible losses though). Noah was a legit #1 last year, and although it was not surprising to see him playing behind Trinka this year, I pegged him in the preseason as being one of the better #2’s in the country. This is a big match for Bragg and Wolstencroft (Bowdoin’s other senior), because if they lose to Trin, their careers could very well come to an end.
Underclassmen to watch: I talked about all three freshmen in the first Bowdoin paragraph above, and choosing one is very tough. They’re kind of like a freaking tripod. So I’m not going to choose one. All three play dubs and singles, all three have been fantastic. I do have to give one shout out to Tercek, as he stepped up a spot during the year. Wolfe has always been entrenched at #3, so when Savage was pulled his spot stayed the same. With Wolstencroft’s reemergence, Roddy stayed put at #6, but Tercek moved up to #4 and has been performing admirably there. I look forward to seeing what this tripod does through their time at Bowdoin.
Prediction: Closer than some people think. For some reason the Polar Bears really struggle at dubs, and Trinity is a team that can take advantage. As long as Bowdoin doesn’t go down 3-0, I see them winning this match without TOO much struggle at the end. Close quarterfinal win over Trinity, loss to Midd in the semis (but closer loss than last time).
#2 Middlebury Panthers
Why they’ll succeed: They have stomped on everyone but Amherst, they get a bye to the semis, they have one of the best players and one of the best coaches in the country, and they get to play at home! Are you not entertained? Midd isn’t known for bringing out a rowdy fan base, even if their team has been known to get a bit rowdy, but the Emory/Midd match from earlier this season was certainly heated. If the fans come out for NESCACs, this Midd team becomes even more dangerous than they already are. The Panthers are clearly one of the best teams in the country, and will be chomping at the bit to get another shot at Amherst.
Why they’ll fizzle: Check out this boxscore. That is a 9-0 sweep, and that 9-0 sweep occurred within the past week. That’s troubling even if you now are playing at home. Also, while Midd beat Bowdoin badly earlier in the year, the Panthers won three singles supers, and a doubles tiebreaker. That match was much closer than the score. For all you Midd fans, yes I know your match with Amherst was similarly closer than the score, but this is the “why they’ll fizzle” section. Get over it.
Senior looking to finish off a career: Peter Heidrich. Young Peter is now old Peter, and he will be looking to cap a career spent mainly as a doubles specialist. The Panthers have other seniors, Frost at #3 dubs and Mountifield (currently at anywhere between #5 and #9), but Heidrich has been their most consistent performer this year. The Midd dubs teams will be favored vs. Bowdoin, if the Polar Bears make it past Trin, but will likely have the unenviable task of taking on Solimano/Revzin in the finals. NESCAC success starts with dubs, and Heidrich will be looking to both get his team some revenge over Amherst, and secure a spot at NCAAs for himself and playing partner Palmer Campbell.
Underclassmen to watch: Noah Farrell. Farrell and Smolyar have been a pretty dominant #2 team throughout the year, amassing a separate 5 and 7 match win streak. They enter NESCACs on a losing streak, then again so does the entire team after getting swept by Amherst. Before falling to Solimano in a super, Farrell had won his previous three matches, including a BIG TIME three set win over Halpern (Emory). He will have a tough matchup with either Bragg or Mbithi in the semis, but Noah beat both guys earlier in the season. Farrell has been one of the best freshmen in the NE, and will be a big part of any postseason success Midd is to have.
Prediction: I don’t think Midd will route Bowdoin like they did last time, but they do matchup well with either the Polar Bears or the Bantams. Amherst is a different story. Again, i don’t see them getting swept again by the Jeffs, but I also don’t see them coverting the upset. Close-ish (5-1 or 5-2) win over Bowdoin in the semis, and a similar loss (5-2) to Amherst in the finals.
#1 Amherst Lord Jeffs
Why they’ll succeed: No NESCAC team has come closer than 7-2, and Amherst’s last five matches vs. Bowdoin, Wesleyan, Williams, Bates, and Middlebury, were 8-1, 8-1, 8-1, 8-1, and 9-0. That’s good. No, I mean that’s really good. This crew has two guys that should make Individual NCAAs (Yaraghi and Solimano), and no one would bat an eye at the idea of Zykov playing at NCAAs at some point down the road as well. Amherst has become the clear #2 team in the country, and in my opinion is the only team with a real shot at taking down CMS (again) in the NCAA tournament. There are a hundred reasons that they might succeed, so let’s move on to the other sections.
Why they’ll fizzle: Probably the toughest paragraph to write in this whole article. Amherst has shown zero signs of fizzling since their loss to Pomona-Pitzer in their first DIII match of the spring. Amherst’s weakest spot is without a doubt at #6, but that being said, the recipe for taking down the Lord Jeffs is to be super strong at the top. Winning #6 only gains one point. Yaraghi, Solimano, Zykov, and Revzin is a fantastic top 4, but each guy CAN lose with the right matchup (or an ankle turn in Zykov’s case). I’m not saying it’s likely, but it’s possible. Smolyar, Farrell, Campbell, and Frons are pretty ok themselves. The only other thing that could possibly perhaps maybe keep Amherst from the NESCAC Pool-A bid, is the location of the tourney. As with most regular season matchups, I doubt we’ve seen Amherst win in front of a hostile crowd. There are very few hostile crowds in DIII, but Midd has the potential to be just that. Last year, Amherst won the NCAA title over CMS while playing at CMS, but that doesn’t mean they don’t get rattled just like everybody else!
Senior looking to finish off a career: Sean Rodriguez. Rodriguez has become a mainstay in the Amherst lineup, posting a 10-2 record vs. DIII competition this year. Sean has notched some big wins, including Wu (Wash U), Wolstencroft (Bowdoin), and De Quant (Midd) who otherwise have combined to go 31-7 on the year. His only non-superbreaker loss came to Levin (Trin) who hasn’t lost a match at #5 all year. Considering Rodriguez wasn’t in the starting lineup in the fall, Sean must’ve put in some serious offseason work to finally get his shot in the lineup. Nothing says DIII more than a hard working player who finally gets his shot and does well during his senior year. You’ve gotta love it.
Underclassmen to watch: Anton Zykov. Like Trinity, Amherst only has one underclassmen in its starting lineup, and lucky for the Jeff’s he’s nasty. Zykov hasn’t lost a set at #3 so far this year, going 9-0 this spring with wins over Kratky (Wash U), Wolfe (Bowdoin), and Campbell (Midd). Zykov is also part of a rock-solid #2 doubles pair, where he and Yaraghi have been killin it, posting a record of 10-0 with only one match (Tufts) closer than 8-5. Zykov is as close to a guaranteed 2 points as anyone in DIII at this point, and will be heavily relied upon throughout both NESCACs and the NCAA tournament.
Prediction: The Jeffs flex their muscles through this tournament, proving yet again that they are both the conference and the country’s best shot at taking down CMS at NCAAs. Amherst routes the Williams/Tufts winner in the semis, and gets the 5-2 win over Midd in the finals!
There you have it folks. I’m going all chalk and calling Amherst over Midd in the finals. I’ll update this weekend when I can, and try to get a match by match preview of the finals out late on Saturday night, as is my way. Until then, enjoy all the bracketology stuff!