As promised, I’m back to give a quick run down of the possible NESCAC scenarios after today’s results. #4 Amherst def. #9 Williams 7-2, #5 Wesleyan def #18 Bates 8-1, and #7 Bowdoin def. #15 Tufts 5-4. Now that Saturday’s matches are taken care of, the number of hypothetical scenarios has been cut down dramatically. The matches with any post-season implication that remain to be played are: #9 Williams vs Trinity CT. #3 Middlebury @ #4 Amherst. #5 Wesleyan @ #7 Bowdoin. If you want to read a quick preview of why those matches, check out my post from Friday night. Tonight we’re dealing only with scenarios. (D3NE note: As I wrote this I realized that after today’s results, it’s really just the two top-10 matches that have any effect on the conference standings. Oh well. A solid Saturday evening’s work.)
MIDDLEBURY
#1 SEED IF: Middlebury beats Amherst and Bowdoin beats Wesleyan. Midd would be the only conference team with just one loss.
#2 SEED IF: Middlebury beats Amherst and Wesleyan beats Bowdoin (due to head-to-head loss vs Wesleyan).
#3 SEED IF: Amherst beats Middlebury and Wesleyan beats Bowdoin. Midd would be the only conference team with two losses, behind Wes and Herst, but ahead of Bowdoin.
?? SEED IF: Amherst beats Middlebury and Bowdoin beats Wesleyan. Then Amherst gets the overall #1 seed, and Bowdoin/Midd/Wesleyan all tie for the #2 seed and all three teams have beaten each other. My guess is that Middlebury would get the #2 seed due to their win over CMS, who beat both Bowdoin and Wesleyan when those teams were on their spring breaks back in March. In that scenario, Midd gets the #2 and the head-to-head is re-applied for the next spot, giving the #3 seed to Bowdoin and the #4 seed to Wesleyan
WESLEYAN
#1 SEED IF: The Cards beat Bowdoin and Middlebury beats Amherst (due to head-to-head win vs Midd).
#2 SEED IF: Wesleyan beats Bowdoin and Amherst beats Middlebury (due to head-to-head loss vs Herst)
#4 SEED IF: Bowdoin beats Wesleyan. I THINK, that no matter what else happens, if the Cards fall at Bowdoin that they will drop all the way down to the #4 seed.
A) If Middlebury beats Amherst, Midd gets the #1 seed and Bowdoin gets the #2 seed because they will tie with both Amherst and Wesleyan, both of whom they have beaten, thus earning the #2 seed. Amherst then gets the #3 seed due to their head-to-head win over Wes, and the Cards fall all the way down to #4.
B) If Amherst beats Middlebury, Amherst gets the #1 seed, Midd would likely get the #2 seed due to the tiebreaker discussed above where their win over CMS comes into play, and Bowdoin then gets the #3 seed due to a head-to-head win over Wesleyan.
AMHERST
#1 SEED IF: Amherst beats Middlebury. Somehow, the simplest scenario belongs to the Mammoths! They truly are the only team (listed here) playing tomorrow totally in control of their own destiny. A win, and they clinch the regular season crown, no matter what else happens.
#3 SEED IF: Middlebury beats Amherst. Again, leave it to the artists formerly known as the Lord Jeffs to keep things simple. No matter the other results, a Midd win would lock Herst in as the conference #3 seed.
A) Bowdoin beats Wesleyan. Amherst would end the season tied with Bowdoin and Wesleyan. Bowdoin gets the #2 seed because the champs will be 2-0 in the 3-way round robin. That leaves Amherst and Wesleyan in the running for the #3 seed and the Mammoths get it due to their home win last weekend.
B) Wesleyan beats Bowdoin. With two conference losses, Amherst would sit behind both Wes and Midd, both with one loss, but ahead of Bowdoin (and possibly Williams) with three losses.
BOWDOIN
#2 SEED IF: Bowdoin beats Wesleyan and Middlebury beats Amherst. As stated above, Midd gets the #1, but Bowdoin gets the #2 (and other bye to the tournament semis) because they would have beaten both teams they were tied with, Amherst and Wesleyan.
#3 SEED IF: Bowdoin beats Wesleyan and Amherst beats Middlebury. Herst would get the #1 seed, the next three teams would all be tied with wins over one another, and Midd would probably get the #2 seed because of their CMS win, leaving Bowdoin to get the #3 seed due to their hypothetical head-to-head win vs Wesleyan.
#4 SEED IF: Wesleyan beats Bowdoin. Plain and simple. The champs would have three conference losses, tying them with Williams, but they beat the Ephs earlier in the year so they get the tiebreaker. Not that it matters all that much in terms of the conference tournament, as the #4 and #5 will square off in the quarterfinals.
WILLIAMS
#5 SEED. FINALLY! No “IFs.” If Bates had beaten Wesleyan today, we could’ve seen some crazy scenarios where the Ephs would be playing for their NESCAC lives against Trinity tomorrow, but oh well. Luckily, the Ephs will not only play the #4 team in the conference tournament next weekend, they will host them, as NESCACs are once again taking place back in good ole Williamstown.
TUFTS
#6 SEED. Similarly, Tufts is now locked in as the #6 seed. Even if Williams were to somehow lose to Trinity CT, the Ephs would own the tiebreaker with Tufts due to their head-to-head win. The Jumbos will play whoever ends up as the #3 seed, which according to the above scenarios could be Middlebury, Amherst, or Bowdoin.
BATES
#7 SEED. At the start of the weekend there was still a couple of scenarios where Bates could have not only made NESCACs, but finished as high as the #3 seed. Unfortunately for Bobcat Nation, all of those scenarios started with a win over Wesleyan. Bates only has four conference losses, the same as Tufts, but Tufts beat them earlier this year so the Bo’s have the head-to-head tiebreaker. If the Ephs lose to Trinity CT, they would end up with 4 losses, just like Tufts and Bates, however, because Tufts beat Bates and Williams beat Tufts, it stands to reason that the Ephs would still get the #5 seed and Tufts would get the #6.