WARNING: What I’m about to attempt is a highly dangerous. Side effects include headaches, nausea, and angry comments about possible scenarios that I missed. Yes, there are still so many NESCAC scenarios that I’m sure I will miss something as I try to sift through all the muck that is the top of the conference standings. As people are want to do, please let me know your scenario and I will work through it in the comments. I will do my best to get something out on Saturday night after the matches to update the scenarios for Sundays matches. Actual weekend match previews are below the scenarios.
MIDDLEBURY
Best case scenario: A win over Amherst on Sunday and either a Bates or a Bowdoin win over Wesleyan on Saturday or Sunday and the Panthers have the outright regular-season crown.
Worst case scenario: A loss to Herst, an Amherst win over Williams, a Wesleyan win over Bates, and Bowdoin wins over Wesleyan and Tufts would put the Panthers into a 3-way tie for 2nd with Herst and Bowdoin where all three will have beaten the other. It’s conceivable, although unlikely, that Midd comes out on the wrong side of a tiebreaker and finishes in 4th place.
BOWDOIN
Best case scenario: After the loss to Bates, the conference crown is unlikely, but wins over Tufts and Wesleyan, and an Amherst win over Middlebury, a Bates upset of Wesleyan, AND a Williams win over Amherst and Bowdoin would tie with Amherst and Middlebury for the #1 seed. In that scenario, all three teams will have beaten each other, and I have zero clue how the conference would decide its seeding. It could come down to common opponents, or God forbid, score between common opponents. If Midd beats Amherst, and Bowdoin beats both Tufts and Wesleyan, no matter what else happens Bowdoin should get the #2 seed and a bye in the conference tournament due to head-to-head wins over Herst and Wes…my head hurts.
Worst case scenario: Losses to both Tufts and Wesleyan, a Bates win over Wesleyan, and Williams wins over Amherst and Trinity CT, plummet Bowdoin all the way down to the 7th spot. Bowdoin would be behind Midd/Wes/Herst/Williams/Bates due to # of losses, and tie with Tufts. The tiebreaker would go to the Jumbos seeing as they just beat Bowdoin. That’s right people, if I’m doing this right, it is actually possible that the defending champs COULD MISS NESCACS ALL TOGETHER.
WESLEYAN
Best case scenario: Wins over Bates and Bowdoin, and a Middlebury win over Amherst means the Wesleyan Cardinals are your regular season NESCAC champions due to their head-to-head win over Midd last weekend.
Worst case scenario: Losses to Bates and Bowdoin coupled with Middlebury and Williams beating Amherst would drop the Cards down to the #4 spot.
AMHERST
Best case scenario: Herst beats Williams and Midd, Wesleyan beats Bowdoin, and Amherst and Wesleyan tie for the regular season title. Amherst gets the #1 seed by virtue of their head-to-head win over Wesleyan last weekend.
Worst case scenario: The Mammoths lose to Williams and Midd, Wesleyan beats Bowdoin and Bates, Bowdoin beats Tufts. Williams, Bowdoin and Amherst all tie for 3rd place in the conference with three losses, however because both Bowdoin and Williams beat Amherst, the Mammoths fall down to 5th place and get a NESCAC quarterfinal rematch with the rivals who just beat them, the Ephs.
WILLIAMS
Best case scenario: Williams beats Amherst and Trinity CT, Bowdoin loses to Tufts and Wesleyan, Midd also beats Amherst. Williams leaps Bowdoin and ties Amherst for 3rd, but earns the tiebreaker due to the hypothetical head-to-head win and draws Tufts in the NESCAC quarterfinal, who they have already beaten this year.
Worst case scenario: Williams loses to Amherst and Trinity CT (hey, we said worst case). Bates beats Wesleyan and Tufts beats Bowdoin. I believe Williams would actually MISS NESCACS in this scenario, dropping all the way down to 7th in the conference.
TUFTS
Best case scenario: Tufts beats Bowdoin for the 2nd time in as many years. Wesleyan also beats Bowdoin. Williams loses to Amherst and Trinity CT. Tufts jumps up to a tie for 4th with Bowdoin and passes them due to their head-to-head win. Tufts 4th, Bowdoin 5th, Williams or Bates (depending on the Bates/Wesleyan winner) 6th. The Jumbos play Bowdoin again in a NESCAC quarterfinal.
Worst case scenario: Tufts loses to Bowdoin, Bates beats Wesleyan, Williams loses to Amherst and Trinity CT. Bates actually jumps Tufts and Williams for the #5 spot, and Tufts and Williams tie for the 6th spot, which goes to Williams because the Ephs beat the Jumbos earlier this year. Tufts misses NESCACs.
BATES
Best case scenario: If Bowdoin beats Wesleyan but loses to Tufts, then Bates is tied with Wesleyan and Bowdoin, both of whom they will have beaten, and Tufts’ win over Williams isn’t as important when comparing them to Bates (who didn’t play Williams), because Williams will become a team “Bates would have beaten” due to conference standing. In this scenario (which I don’t even know would come to pass, that’s a committee decision), Bates earns the #3 seed because they beat the Cards and Polar Bears, and will play Tufts as the #6 seed.
Worst case scenario: The simplest scenario, a loss to Wesleyan coupled with a Williams win over Trinity CT or Amherst and Bates will miss NESCACs again.
Now it’s time for match previews. To quote our good friend Dr. Bobby, ACTIVATE BLURB OVERDRIVE!
#9 Williams @ #4 Amherst, Saturday at 1 p.m.
Why it matters for Williams: RIVALRY MATCH. I shouldn’t need to say more than that, but there is that pesky thing called Pool-C that is hanging over Williamstown. A win over Herst would be enough to get Williams into the tournament, much to the dismay of CMU fans.
Why it matters for Amherst: Again. RIVALRY MATCH. Is nobody listening to me? I feel like I’m taking crazy pills or something. A Herst loss could drop them as far as 4th, while a win over Williams coupled with either a win over Midd or a Bowdoin win over Wesleyan means that Amherst will at the very least tie for 2nd and have a decent shot at earning a top-2 seed and a bye in the conference tournament.
Why it matters for the individuals: #1 vs #2 in the region for doubles. Normally I’d say the top two teams are locks, but given how many more matches each team still has to play, I think the winner of this match locks up a bid to NCAAs, while the loser still may have a slight bit of work to do.
Prediction: The Mammoths gets it done, casting even more doubt onto the Williams vs CMU debate. Amherst def. Williams 6-3.
#15 Tufts @ #7 Bowdoin, Saturday at 3 p.m.
Why it matters for Tufts: A win for Tufts would lock up another NESCACs appearance and keep their NCAA dream alive. Lose this match, and there’s a chance their season is over.
Why it matters for Bowdoin: Coming off the loss to Bates, the champs need to turn things around. A Sunday match with Wesleyan looms large, but this is a huge match and can’t be overlooked. A win over Tufts would guarantee Bowdoin a spot at NESCACs, and very likely a top-4 seed. Also, there is revenge at state, as Tufts beat Bowdoin at the end of last year’s regular season.
Why it matters for the individuals: No match that matters for both teams. On the doubles side, neither of these teams would be in if the tournament started today. A win for Tufts is necessary if they want to stay in the hunt, given Bowdoin’s recent struggles at the top spot. In singles, Tercek and Urken are sitting at #8 and #9 right now. I’m honestly a little surprised that Luke is that high given his recent loss to Shastri who just cracked the top-25 because of it. Both guys are very much in the hunt for Wild Card bids, but losses to either Ali or Gupte would damage those chances.
Prediction: The champs rebound and beats a fiesty Tufts team. Bowdoin def. Tufts 6-3.
#5 Wesleyan @ #17 Bates, Saturday at 4 p.m.
Why it matters for Wesleyan: Honestly, it matters far less for Wes than it does Bates, BUT it still totally matters. A win and an Amherst loss to Williams on Saturday means that Wesleyan will control it’s own destiny for the regular season conference title going into Sunday. A loss, and I don’t think they could get the #1 seed given that one of Herst and Midd has to win on Sunday afternoon.
Why it matters for Bates: Before their Bowdoin win they would not have even been included in this article! But now the Bobcats need a win at home over Wesleyan. With a win, they will raise a lot of questions about NESCACs, and given all the matches happening this weekend it’s very likely that they will make it after all.
Why it matters for the individuals: Plenty of implications here, but I’m not sure either one will make or break the season. Chen vs. Rosen should be a dandy as both players are on fire recently. They’re ranked #2 and #4 respectively in this week’s ITA rankings. While neither one is in much doubt of missing NCAAs, the winner, especially if it’s Chen, will be in great shape to earn a top-2 regional ranking and thus a top-8 seed at NCAAs.
Prediction: There is yet another chance of rain in Maine on Saturday, and we all know that if this match is played indoors that it will be a lot closer. I’m going to assume the match will be played inside, and I think Wes shows off their toughness and beats Bates 5-4.
#5 Wesleyan @ #7 Bowdoin, Sunday at 12 p.m.
Why it matters for Wesleyan: As I said just above, any loss this weekend makes it almost impossible for Wes to get the #1 seed. This match has tons of tiebreaker implications as well, as a Bowdoin win here makes it likely these two teams end up tied. Also, I haven’t even begun to mention NCAA seeding yet, but a win here for either team makes it more likely they avoid a top-3 team like Emory/CMS/Midd until the semis (if everything plays out).
Why it matters for Bowdoin: Ditto on the NCAA seeding, but a win would really do wonders for the Polar Bears’ confidence after a rough match at Bates. Even after the loss, Bowdoin is still (I think!) in the running for the overall #1 seed at NESCACs, but either way a bye to the semis would be great for the ailing Polar Bears (possible small injury issues with Wolfe/Jiang).
Why it matters for the individuals: A Tercek win over Chen would put the big junior right back into the thick of things. Urken can’t afford a loss to Liu, who is outside the top-25. It’s the other way for doubles, as Wesleyan is currently sitting in the 5th spot, and alive in the Wild Card hunt, but a loss by the Cards top pair would put a dent in those dreams.
Prediction: Wesleyan def. Bowdoin 5-4, continuing the circle of ridiculous 5-4 matches at the top of the conference.
#3 Middlebury @ #4 Amherst, Sunday at 1 p.m.
Why it matters for Middlebury: A win assures the Panthers a share of the regular season title, and a bye in the conference tournament. If you don’t think a bye is a big deal at NESCACs, then I’m shocked you made it this far in the article. Again, this match also will matter for NCAA seeding. A win here for Midd means they will have wins over everybody in the NESCAC except for Wes. If they somehow beat Wes in the conference tournament, they might have a shot at regaining the overall #1 seed at NCAAs.
Why it matters for Amherst: Similarly for the Mammoths, winning this weekend would mean a guaranteed bye to the conference tournament semis. There is even a scenario where Herst beats Williams, loses this match to Midd, and still ends up as the #2 seed (Wes loses to Bates but beats Bowdoin, or Bowdoin loses to Tufts but beats Wes). A top 2 finish in the conference would be a gigantic (no, D3AS, you don’t need to use mammoth as an adjective in every Amherst reference) accomplishment for a young team who struggled during April and May last spring. Like for Midd, this match has big NCAA seeding implications for Amherst as well, who surely is looking to avoid the top-3 in the quarterfinals as well. Not that playing a top team is a death sentence this year, quite the opposite as any team in the top 7ish has a real chance at winning it all, but why not make the road easier for you if possible?
Why it matters for the individuals: For such a great power ranking matchup, this one features less drama at the top. Cuba is a lock for NCAAs, and right now would be my guess for the overall #1 seed. Bessette and Marchalik have both been playing some #1 of late, and currently sit at #12 and #16. A win over Cuba might put Bessette back in the Wild Card hunt, but that’s only if he beats Shastri on Saturday. For the doubles, both teams are top-3, but I think those three teams (Bessette/Fung, Grodecki/Taylor, Cuba/De Quant) are pretty much interchangeable, especially if Midd wins this match. All three should be in great shape for NCAAs, barring a tumultuous end to the season.
Prediction: Hansen takes care of business. Midd def. Amherst 6-3.