ANOTHER NE WEEKEND PREVIEW!!! Wow, you all must have done something special to deserve this. D3AS and I already looked at Emory’s NE weekend of fun and now I’m back to look at the rest of the NE weekend action. Don’t worry, I’ve brought another blogging friend to help me out. D3RegNE/C has taken a short break from his NECk of the Woods (which should come out on Saturday?) article to help out with the Tufts’ road trip to RPI and Skidmore.
#4 Williams @ #2 Bowdoin, Saturday 10:00 a.m.
How important is this match…really? It’s really important as it likely determines the regular season champion of the NESCAC! If Williams beats Bowdoin, then they are your likely champs (assuming they don’t lose two matches down the stretch. If Bowdoin beats Williams, then we’ll have a three-way tie atop the conference (including Midd) where all three teams will be 1-1 against the others. Plus, it’s a matchup between two top-4 teams…c’mon son.
How Williams can win: Play to their strengths. Grodecki, Barr, and Lil Raghavan have been super strong at #1, #2 and #4 singles this year, so taking a doubles lead and grinding out those three spots seem to be Williams’ best bets.
How Bowdoin can win: Same answer, play to their strengths. Bowdoin’s doubles has been their strongest points so far this year, along with the #5 and #6 singles play (and Urken/Tercek until recently). Bowdoin will be slight favorites at all three doubles spots, so take two of those three and then take three of four spots from #1, #3, #5 and #6 singles.
Individual Implications: Lots! #1 Grodecki vs #2 Urken, #7 Tercek vs #8 Barr, and #6 Grodecki/Indrakanti vs #1 Tercek/Urken. Grodecki vs Urken features the top two players in the region, though Cuba has beaten Urken as well since the last rankings came out. Both guys are locked into NCAAs, but this is a battle to see who gets a potential seed. The implications are far greater for Tercek vs Lil’ Barr, who currently sit at #7 and #8 in the region respectively. The winner should hold the 7 spot in the next rankings, while the loser could fall a bit. It’s especially tough given Farrell’s resurgence and that #Fink hasn’t yet played Tercek or Farrell. Finally the dubs, where the Polar Bears are currently in the #1 spot but just lost to Midd. BG and Deepak are newcomers, but have been quite successful so far and a win here might be enough to vault them all the way into the top 4.
Prediction: Bowdoin def. Williams 5-4
#7 Amherst @ #13 Wesleyan, Saturday 2:00 p.m.
How important is this match…really? Like really really really important, like more important than silly Williams @ Bowdoin, like arguably the biggest match of the year for Pool-C! Amherst is still riding high off their early season success, but it’s Wesleyan who has been playing the better tennis of late. This is pretty close to a must-win for Wes, and it would possibly set up a virtual NCAA play-in match in the first round of NESCACs if these two teams were forced to duke it out again. One big question is whether or not Bessette will be in this match. He didn’t play singles or doubles against the Eagles today.
How Amherst can win: Strong doubles and the top/middle of the singles lineup. Even with their departures, Amherst still plays solid doubles, especially towards the top of their lineup. In addition, Wei/Bessette(?)/Fung and even Levitin have been playing fairly well of late. If Amherst can take a doubles lead, it is very realistic for the Mammoths to split singles, and they might even be slight favorites at #1 and #3.
How Wesleyan can win: Keep up the strong doubles and rely on the depth. Nothing has been a bigger turnaround than the Cards’ dubs over the past couple weeks. This team was swept by Emory, CMS and Williams, and were down 2-1 to CMU, Wash U, and TRINITY CT (even without a full lineup). Recently they flipped the switch and went a combined 8-1 in doubles against Tufts, Swarthmore and Bates. Continuing the strong doubles play is a must for Wes, and a lead against Herst would give the Cards some wiggle room. #1 is pretty much a tossup and Wes should be favored at #2, #5 and #6 singles. A doubles lead and three of those four spots are the Cards’ most likely recipe for success.
Individual Implications: #6 Chen vs #4 Wei & #9 Finkelman vs Ma. Chen is coming off a big win over Rosen, while Wei is holding strong as a top-4 player in the region. I believe both of these guys are close to locked into NCAAs at this point. As for the match at #2 singles, Finkelman is sitting in a very precarious position. A loss here against Ma and his NCAA chances are probably caput. No doubles implications likely as neither team is likely to make NCAAs without an utterly ridiculous end to their season.
Prediction: Wesleyan def. Amherst 6-3
#15 Tufts @ #27 RPI, Saturday, 1:00 p.m.
How important is this match…really? Probably not all that important, unless we’re talking about regional rankings. As D3RegNEC will get into below, this match doesnt mean anything for postseason chances, simply for regional and, in the case of an upset, national rankings. It also presents a good rebound opportunity for Tufts after their tough loss at Bates earlier today.
How Tufts can win: They are strong where RPI has struggled somewhat this year, and I like how Tufts matches up with the Engineers. The Bos should be favored at #2/3/5/6 and probably #2&3 doubles as well. That’s at least six spots, pick your favorite five.
How RPI can win: It would take a doubles lead, which is not out of the question given Tufts’ mediocre doubles of late, and then RPI’s three most likely spots are #1, #4, and maybe somewhere else at the bottom of the lineup? A doubles sweep would vastly improve the chances (this might sound obvious, but in some matches it’s more important than others). One other thing to watch for is the weather. Going indoors in the NE can always change things…
Individual Implications: #11 Gupte vs #14 Castillo-Sanchez, #9 Gupte/Ali vs #7 Castillo-Sanchez/Imrie. In total honestly, it would be a big surprise if Tufts sent an individual to NCAAs as this point. RPI also has a slim shot, both of these wins would be crucial and then they’d need to beat Skidmore in the LL finals, but even then I’m not sure it would be enough (almost certainly not enough for singles).
D3RegNE/C!: I started writing before I saw I had my own section, so below is my take on how important this match is: There’s two ways to look at this one. From a postseason perspective, it’s pretty much completely meaningless. Neither team is making NCAAs unless they win their conference. But for a team like RPI, this is probably in their eyes one of the most important matches of the season. It’s a chance for them to compete with a team one or two tiers above them, and possibly prove that they belong in the same conversation with the Tufts’ of the world. RPI gets their shot at Skidmore every year, but not many teams in Tufts’ ranking range are going to want to schedule RPI in the future, so the Engineers should be looking to make the most of this opportunity.
For Tufts, the importance is that they could use a solid, comprehensive beatdown here to get back on track and in the right mindset for the rest of their season. I’m sure after getting downed by Wesleyan morale was not high, and this RPI match is important in that it’s a good opportunity to turn those Jumbos’ frowns upside-down.
As far as what I think is going to happen—Tufts gets out to a doubles lead, RPI sticks around in singles for a while but eventually the Jumbos clinch for a 6-3 or 7-2 win. Gupte is a tough player to predict, and Sebastian Castillo-Sanchez can definitely beat him on the right day, so that’s a match to watch. At 2, Sorkin has been very good and Ali’s going to be a tough out down at #3. Brian Niguidula at #4 is one of the better RPI candidates to win his singles match, though McKinley Grimes at 5 also has decent shot. Overall, this is a matchup we haven’t seen before and I hope it’s the beginning of a trend for more NESCAC teams to play non-NESCAC Northeast teams!
D3NE Prediction: Tufts def. RPI 7-2.
#15 Tufts @ #26 Skidmore, Sunday 12:00 p.m.
How important is this match…really? Similar to the RPI match, it doesn’t mean much for anything but regional rankings and possibly a shift in the national rankings.
How Tufts can win: They will be favored at #2 and #3 in both doubles and singles, and i believe they are stronger at the bottom of the singles lineup as well. In fact, I would say that the Bos are probably favored at seven different spots.
How Skidmore can win: It starts at the top of both lineups. The T-Breds will need a doubles lead, Koulouris will probably need to get two points, Wynne will need to out-battle Sorkin, and then you get one point from either #4 or #5 singles.
Individual Implications: #10 Koulouris vs #11 Gupte. #2 Koulouris/Wynne vs #9 Gupte/Ali. A chance for both guys to justify their high ranking, but as I said above I’m not sure this particular win would be enough to move either up into the top 9. As for dubs, I don’t believe the Tufts duo can get back into NCAAs at this point, but this would be a good start. For Skid, given Midd’s recent strong play and the new hot Williams team, any win over a top-10 team to solidify the resume would be huge, if only to prevent those indirects.
D3RegNE/C!: A couple weekends ago Tufts put a mighty scare into Middlebury, and last weekend Middlebury beat Skidmore 8-1, so on paper this one should be pretty straightforward. And while I still think Tufts is going to win, there’s some upset potential in here, especially if Tufts doesn’t have a great performance against RPI the previous day. As always, for the upset to happen Skidmore could certainly use a doubles lead, which is possible. Wynne/Koulouris are a great team at #1, and while I’d favor Tufts at 2 & 3, anything can happen in a pro-set. As I sit here and think about it, I’m convinced Skidmore can hang with Tufts in singles on just about every court. Sorkin vs Wynne should be a barnburner and could be a key match, and while I would pick Boris, JT has proven me wrong many times before. At the end of the day, I’m going to pick Tufts 6-3 in a very solid battle.
NE Prediction: Tufts def. Skidmore 7-2
#6 Middlebury @ #13 Wesleyan, Sunday 1:00 p.m.
How important is this match…really? That depends on what happens in the Wesleyan Amherst match on Saturday. Either way, it’s important though. Whether or not you think Wesleyan is playing well enough to beat Middlebury, they can. If Wes can win this match, AFTER beating Amherst on Saturday, it leapfrogs the Cards well onto the right side of the Pool-C bubble. If Amherst beats the Cards on Saturday, and pretty much punches their ticket for Pool-C, a Wesleyan win would be one of the only things left to keep them in the Pool-C discussion. A win for Midd would basically mean they cannot fall any lower than the #3 seed, and likely earn the #2 seed and a first round bye at NESCACs (all they would have to do is beat Amherst next weekend). However, a win for Midd wouldn’t crush Wes’ chances UNLESS the Cards had already lost to the Panthers. Confused? Great! Let’s move on.
How Middlebury can win: Wes has been playing good doubles, but Midd’s has been better of late. They have a more talented doubles team at each of the three spots. In singles, the should be favored at almost every spot. On paper, it seems easy to say Midd will definitely get five points out of the seven or eight places where they are favored. My most likely recipe for five points is a doubles lead and singles wins from #3, #4 and either Cuba or Farrell.
How Wesleyan can win: Keep the good dubs rollin brah! The turnaround to the Cards’ season starts (and hopefully doesnt end) with their doubles. I’ve talked about this a lot recently so I won’t hammer it in again, but if the Cards can take a doubles lead they can absolutely win this match. Chen can beat anybody, #Fink has shown us just how much freshman grit he’s made of, and the idea of Carter down at #6 singles is beastly. A doubles lead and those three guys are their most likely route to a win, but don’t count out Wes at #5 singles either.
Individual Implications: #3 Cuba vs #6 Chen, #22 Farrell vs #9 Finkelman. Chen and Cuba should be good for NCAAs at this point. The more interesting match is Farrell vs Fink. Noah is rapidly climbing the charts since his return, and a win here would really start making things tough for the committee. A win for Fink and he holds his ground, and still has a real shot at NCAAs!
Prediction: Midd def Wesleyan 7-2
#26 Skidmore plays #38 Hobart today in a big Liberty League match. Could have implications on Liberty League Tournament seeding.