#4 Bowdoin @ #9 Williams, Saturday at 10 a.m.
What’s at stake: NESCAC seeding, #1 doubles implications, and another chance for Williams to get on the right side of the Pool-C bubble
How Williams pulls the upset: It starts with a doubles lead, then pouncing on where Bowdoin has been weak of late. That is most likely with Indrakanti over Jiang, Grodecki over a possibly not-100% Urken, and then one of the Raghavani (plural of Raghavan) to get the 5th point (if necessary).
Why Bowdoin wins: Singles, i guess. I’m not sure there’s a spot in the lineup where Williams will be favored in singles. There are a decent amount of toss-up matches, but it will be VERY difficult for Williams to pull off an upset without a doubles lead. Tercek should be favored over Shastri, and Roddy will be favored over Taylor, but other than that we should have some excellent singles matches.
Match to watch: #1 doubles. Terk/Urk are trying to work their way back towards the top of the rankings, and a win over the highly ranked team of Grodecki/Taylor would go a long ways. While it likely wouldn’t be enough to punch a ticket to NCAAs, it would certainly but the Bowdoin duo back in Wild Card consideration. In addition, this is a match that Williams probably needs to win if they are going to win this match.
Prediction: Williams takes a doubles lead, but Bowdoin prevails 5-4.
#6 Wesleyan @ #8 Amherst, Saturday at 1 p.m.
What’s at stake: SO MUCH POOL-C! This is the beginning of Amherst’s 8-days of Pool-C fun, when they take on Wesleyan, Skidmore, and Williams in just over a week. They need to win two of those matches if they want to feel good before NESCACs.
How EITHER TEAM wins: Is a great question. This would not qualify as a huge upset in our power rankings, and there are actually a variety of ways either team could go about winning this match, which is why the category header is the way it is. Each team’s weakest doubles spot is probably #2, but Amherst has a slight edge. Wesleyan will be slight favorites at #1 and moderate favorites at #3. Chen should be a favorite against anybody in the region he plays right now (probably with the exception of Cuba), but after that we should be in for some very even matches. If healthy, I’d probably take Marchalik/Bessette (they’ve been switching) at #2 over Liu, but I’d expect three sets. Who knows what we’re gonna get from Zykov, or if he’ll even be in the lineup, but if he is you have to give Wes an edge at #3. If not, Fung and Eusebio is a push. Samson is likely a slight favorite at 4 against Owens, but probably a push with Fung. The bottom of the lineup would probably skew towards the Cards with CD and the Prince, but neither one will be major favorites. LOTS of swing matches here!
Match to watch: Great question. My eye will be on whomever Fung matches up with, especially if it’s Samson at #4 singles, but I’d also like to see Amherst’s other freshmen at the bottom of the lineup, as that is arguably where Wes is strongest.
Prediction: I’ve gone back and forth on this for weeks let alone during this preview. Gimme Wesleyan 5-4, #AVZBOOST
#18 Skidmore @ #8 Amherst, Sunday at 1:30 p.m.
What’s at stake: Amherst’s Pool-C hopes, big-time Individual implications with Leung vs Bessette and both doubles teams ranked in the top-5.
How Skidmore pulls the upset: It’s a great question. I don’t think the Thoroughbreds have the horses to pull this one off. They would need a doubles sweep, then a win from Leung at #1, and a 5th point from somewhere else in the lineup. Maybe Wynne if Marchalik/Zykov are still out? One thing that could help Skid is if the Mammoths play a SUPER long match with Wes the day before. Some tired legs and a celebratory Saturday night might have an effect.
Why Amherst wins: They will be favored at 7 spots, and I think #1 doubles is close to a push as well. It would be a surprise if Skid took any of the #2-6 singles spots if Herst is playing at full strength.
Match to watch: Whenever Skid takes the court you’d be a fool not to watch Kai Yuen Leung. He’s pretty much a lock for NCAA singles, but a win over another top-10 guy like Bessette wouldn’t hurt. I mentioned this in the what’s at stake section, but a win at #1 doubles could go a long way for either squad. The match is likely more important to Skid, who won’t have another chance to really improve their resume, while Amherst still has Midd and Williams left on its schedule, two of the top teams in the region. A loss for Skid and their original post of #2 in the region might not hold up for even a Wild Card berth.
Prediction: Amherst def. Skidmore 6-3, with one of Skid’s points coming in a super breaker.
#23 MIT @ #4 Bowdoin, Sunday at 1 p.m.
What’s at stake: Bounce back, a possible NCAA preview match, and yes, some Pool-C implications if MIT were to pull the upset. How might they do that? I’m glad you asked.
How MIT pulls the upset: You gotta get angry. You gotta get mean. You’ve gotta be pissed about losing to Brandeis and come out with some fire. You need a doubles lead, if not a sweep (though that seems QUITE unlikely), and wins from Barr over Tercek, Cheng over Wolfe, and Ko over Jiang (or just Cheng over Jiang with the sweep).
Why Bowdoin wins: Bowdoin plays solid doubles, MIT has not. Bowdoin has depth, MIT does not (for the most part). That in and of itself is enough for the Polar Bears to take this match, but MIT’s strengths (mentioned in the above section) are far from sure things. Sure, Bowdoin hasn’t looked dominant of late, but I think this is a match they will get through without THAT much trouble.
Match to watch: If Cheng plays #3, then it’s both Cheng vs Wolfe and Ko vs Jiang. If Cheng plays #4, then it’s just Cheng vs Jiang in a candidate for rhyming match of the year.
Prediction: Bowdoin def. MIT 7-2.
#6 Wesleyan @ #1 Middlebury, Sunday at 2 p.m.
What’s at stake: NESCAC seeding, Pool-C implications, NCAA seeding, NCAA Individual implications, and if Wesleyan beats Amherst, Pool-A implications!
How Wesleyan pulls the upset: Take a couple of mini-upsets. Wes presents an interesting matchup for Midd, as they both have similar strengths but different weaknesses. Wesleyan will need to take #3 doubles (where they will be favored) and one of the other two spots. Then get Chen to pull the mini-upset over Cuba, and rely on their depth to come up with a couple more points. The most likely spots for this are probably #3 and #5, in Eusebio over Derbani and Daniels over Van der Geest.
Why Middlebury wins: The middle of their lineup. Midd will be favored at #2 doubles, and #2-4 singles. That is four spots right there, but they will also be teeny-tiny favorites at #1 singles and #1 doubles. I doubt they win all six of those spots, but it is better to be a slight favorite than a slight underdog. Midd will rely on De Quant and Schlanger to try and get them 4 points and put them on the brink of a win.
Match to watch: While there are a number of great matchups here including Samson vs Schlanger and Roberts/Liu vs Cuba/de Quant, all eyes will be on Cuba vs Chen. Chen hasn’t lost a set since their California trip to start their season, and has beaten two top-10 players in the country in Leung (Skid) and Parodi (CMS). Cuba has also beaten those guys, and Manji amongst his brilliant spring. These guys should be #1 and #2 when the next singles rankings come out.
Prediction: Midd def. Wesleyan 5-4.