NE Weekend Preview: 04/14-04/16

A surprisingly light weekend for the heavy hitters of DIII tennis, headlined by two marquee matchups. One of them, Chicago @ Wash U, will be previewed over the weekend as the match isn’t until Sunday. The other, Middlebury @ Bowdoin in a battle for NESCAC (regular-season) dominance, you can find below. However, seeing as this is an NE weekend preview, not just a Bowdoin/Midd preview, we will go in chronological order. We have four matches spread out over the next three days, so we’re trying to share the wealth. Speaking of sharing the wealth, we will be revealing another blogger next Tuesday! WHAT??? Get excited, people!!! See our most recent power rankings for more info.

#6 Amherst @ #17 MIT Friday 4 P.M.

What’s at stake: An out-of-conference match so nothing too dire, but as with any Pool-A vs Pool-C team there is a lot more riding on the Pool-C team. Both Bessette and Bessette/Fung have good shots at NCAAs, but are nowhere close to locks. A loss to an unranked MIT #1 dubs team or a singles loss to Barr (who has been struggling a bit more of late) would be very detrimental to the Mammoth’s individual hopes.

How MIT pulls the upset: MIT is back on their home courts where we know they play better, but in order to get a win the Engineers’s most likely path is a sweep and two wins from the top-3 guys. Cheng has been playing well, but whoever gets Fung at #4 (Cheng and Ko have been flip-flopping) will likely be overmatched. Barr over Bessette is the most likely “upset” followed by Cheng/Ko over Zykov (who has been really struggling recently).

What happens if Amherst wins: Not a whole lot. Amherst remains in control of their Pool-C destiny with big matches against Wesleyan and Williams still looming over the next two weekends. MIT, no matter what happens, will still be an overwhelming favorite to roll through NEWMACs and earn another Pool-A bid to NCAAs.

What happens if MIT wins: Amherst’s Pool-C hopes are not over, but they might have to beat both Williams and Wesleyan in order to play themselves back in. The Mammoths are still riding the coattails of last year’s disappointment and a mid-teens ITA ranking, even with close 5-4 losses to Bowdoin and Emory. A loss here to a team that just got smoked by Wesleyan would not be good. For MIT, it would mean better NCAA seeding. A win over Herst would get them back up in the rankings, and they would have a shot at being at #2 seed in a worse #1 seed’s region.

Matchup to watch: #1 singles and #4 singles. Barr vs Bessette at MIT should be a good one, and whether Fung plays Ko or Cheng at #3/4 should tell us something about both of the young participants in that match.

Prediction: Amherst def. MIT 6-3

#7 Wesleyan @ #16 Tufts Saturday 9 A.M

What’s at stake: NESCAC seeding, Pool-C implications, the “NESCAC little brother” chip on both shoulders.

How Tufts pulls the upset: Wesleyan seems to be stronger at Tufts’ strongest points, but it would likely involve a doubles lead, Ali over Liu at #2, and two wins from the bottom of the lineup. Perhaps a more likely scenario would be a sweep and wins at #2 and maybe #5/6.

What happens if Tufts wins: CHAOS! It may be a little extreme, but it pushes Wesleyan wayyy back down the Pool-C ladder. It doesn’t do enough to get the Jumbos back into the field, but it certainly would add them to the conversation. My guess is they’d need to beat a NESCAC top-3 as well, given their losses out West (Chicago and PP).

What happens if Wesleyan wins: Not a whole lot in terms of Pool-C, but it would basically guarantee the Cards a spot at NESCACs. Even with Trinity and Bates still on their schedule, the wins over Williams and Tufts would likely be enough. For Tufts, it would mean their matches with Williams and Bates become even more important in terms of making NESCACs.

Matchup to watch: #1 doubles. Gupte and Ali had a big win over the #1 team in the region (Cuba/de Quant) in their first doubles match this spring. If they stay paired together, they have another chance to earn a HUGE win for NCAAs as the Wesleyan #1 team of Liu/Roberts should be near the top of the next rankings when they come out later today.

Prediction: Wesleyan def. Tufts 6-3

#1 Middlebury @ #4 Bowdoin Saturday 10 A.M.

It’s gonna be a bloodbath

What’s at stake: NESCAC SUPREMACY! NCAA tournament seeding. Individual NCAA rankings. Terrace and Cuba both should be solid when the new rankings come out. Urk/Turk are likely on the outside looking in, but a win over Cuba/de Quant could go a long way).

How Middlebury wins: Notice there is no “how do you pull an upset” section here because I don’t believe either team winning constitutes much of an upset. Midd should rely on the strength at the top of both its lineups. Cuba has been as good as anybody in the country, and the team of Derbani/Schlanger at #2 is pretty nasty. Midd’s most likely route to victory is #1/2 dubs, and #1/2/4 singles.

How Bowdoin wins: The Polar Bears have to rely on their depth. While Derbani/Schlanger are good, let’s not forget that Jiang/Wolfe won the fall ITA. Bowdoin could easily take 2&3 dubs, and get big wins from #3 & #5. From there it’s just one more point, maybe Carstens continuing his hot play at #6.

What happens if Middlebury wins: Somewhat status quo. The Panthers will be the likely #1 seed at NESCACs, and if they win the conference tournament will very likely get the #1 overall seed at NCAAs. The defending champs will be relegated to the #2 seed at NESCACs, although I’m not sure there’s too much difference in playing Wesleyan or Amherst in the conference semis.

What happens if Bowdoin wins: The top of the rankings get extremely jumbled. Midd will have beaten CMS who will have beaten Bowdoin who will have beaten Midd. It puts even more emphasis on conference tournaments for NCAA seeding, but it also sets the Polar Bears on the track for the #1 seed at NESCACs, and Midd the #2. It’s too early to think of one of them as destined for Pool-C, because whoever loses this match could easily take revenge in the conference tournament finals. Let’s remember that Midd beat Bowdoin twice last year, then Bowdoin won the national championship match 5-0.

Swing match(es): #3 doubles, #2 singles & #6 singles. A lot rests on the shoulders of the 9th semester senior!

Prediction: Midd def Bowdoin 5-4.

#9 Williams @ #16 Tufts Sunday 1 P.M.

What’s at stake: NESCAC seeding and Pool-C implications for both teams.

How Tufts pulls the upset: This one starts (as most matches do) with doubles. Williams will be favored, possibly at all three spots, so Tufts coming away with a 2-1 lead would be an achievement and would put them in a great spot. Williams is very untested at #5/#6 with freshmen at both spots, and that’s where Tufts could make their move. A win at #1 for Gupte over Shastri, possibly a 3-set win for Ali over Grodecki at #2 (less-likely, but still possible), and/or wins at #5/6 would be the roadmap to an upset.

What happens if Williams wins: Williams is very likely to make NESCACs, but other than that not a whole lot. A Williams win won’t help them all that much, but a loss could cripple them. A Tufts loss to the Ephs would send their Pool-C hopes down the drain without some major end of the year fireworks.

What happens if Tufts wins: CMU/UAA fans rejoice! Tufts would not yet be in a Pool-C position given their early loss to PP, but they would be back in the conversation. Williams would need to go and beat a top-3 NESCAC school to put themselves back on the right side of the bubble. CMU would likely benefit the most, as they’d likely get the final Pool-C spot, even with a 3rd place loss at UAAs, as long as everything else went according to seed.

Matchup to watch: #1 singles. Gupte and Shastri have both struggled some in 2017, and this is a match Tufts probably needs to win if they’re going to pull off the upset.

Prediction: Williams def. Tufts 5-4

Leave a Comment