NE Weekend Action
you can see Uranus
Ok, so first thing’s first, has anyone noticed that there seems to be a new, 5th region of DIII tennis? It is a region where the gravitational pull is so strong, that not even light (let alone Cal Lu) can escape it. That’s right, I’m talking about the black hole. Am I the only one who’s noticed that the NE comprises an astonishing amount of the black hole? In our latest power rankings, the NE has 13 of the 25 spots that are considered to be “black hole-ish”, and where things get really hairy the NE has 12 of the bottom 16 spots. That’s crazy! So much depth from one region! Or at least that’s the positive spin I’m struggling to throw on this dark situation.
While there are no must-see matches in the region this weekend (you’ll see why I believe Amherst/Williams does not belong in that category) there are still plenty of interesting story lines up in NE country. A couple of NESCAC matches, mixed with a few out of conference matchups that are far more important than some of you know, and an important NEWMAC match to boot. Who’s excited? Before we get started, there are a few things you should know. Both Brandeis matches this weekend are full of NESCAC implications. How is that possible? Well in order to break a positioning tie, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head, but in the case of a 3-way tie, the next tiebreaker is common-in-region-matches. There is a chance that matches like Skidmore, MIT, or even Brandeis could help decide who gets into NESCACs. I’ll be writing a NESCAC conference update at some point next week, which will delve much deeper into NESCAC scenarios and tiebreaking issues. For now, let’s just focus on the weekend.
Friday April 18th
Brandeis @ Tufts 3pm
With Tufts’ loss to Bates on Tuesday, both of these teams are squarely in the black hole. But this match is so much more than simply regional pride and to keep a national ranking. As I mentioned before, Tufts played themselves back on the NESCACs bubble by falling to Bates, and now this match has extreme tiebreaker importance. While it was nice to see Glickman return to the Jumbos lineup, they were without Telkedzhiev and Jacobson. Tufts will need at least 2 of those 3 guys to be considered the favorites later today. No matter Tufts’ lineup, I think they’re the favorites at #3 doubles, as this is Brandeis’ weakest spot. If Telkedzhiev plays, Tufts should be favored at #1 dubs, if Jacobson plays, Tufts should be favored at #2 dubs. Basically what I’m trying to say is that when Tufts is fully healthy, I think they’ll cruise to a 6-3 win. HOWEVER, considering they haven’t been fully healthy for a single match this season, I think it’ll depend on who plays. On the Judges side, Granoff and Lubarsky will not make this easy for the Jumbos, but with a full Tufts lineup I believe they are simply too deep for Brandeis. As long as 2/3 of Tufts’ guys start, I’m going Tufts 5-4. If all 3 play, Tufts 7-2.
Amherst @ Trinity 3:30pm
Ok, this match is not nearly as exciting as the Tufts/Brandeis match should be. Amherst has similar strengths to Trinity (their depth and a highly ranked #1) but Amherst’s strengths are simply much stronger. Fritz/Reindell have basically locked up a NCAA dubs spot, but each of their losses could hurt Revzin/Solimano as well. Fritz vs. Carpenter could be entertaining, but DC has been down of his luck of late, and Fritz just came away with big 3rd set wins against Berg and Bragg. I like the Jeffs to throw their weight around here, 9-0, but a couple of 3 setters in the singles.
Saturday April 19th
Bowdoin @ Midd 10am
Top match of the day gets top billing. Bowdoin is running out of chances to prove themselves as a legitimate NCAA contender. They played a good match against Amherst, but their issues start with doubles. Amherst swept Bowdoin last weekend, and for the Polar Bears to have any sort of shot they will need to get one of the doubles. Midd is very strong at #2, and Bowdoin is very weak at #3, so (if my math is good) that leaves us with #1 dubs. Not only is this Bowdoin’s only shot at a doubles point, I think they might even be favored. Both teams have some good wins and some bad results. If Bowdoin does hang around after dubs, the Polar Bears are one of the few teams that has the depth to hang with Midd. Granted, Bowdoin played Amherst without Dale, but 4 singles matches went to 3-sets, and Bowdoin took 6 in straights. A healthy Bowdoin team is dangerous, and Midd will need to stay #14strong in order to take this match. I see this match as another with a handful of 3-setters (every singles spot has the potential to go the distance). I think this is a 6-3 but it’s very difficult to predict who wins where. Ill take Bragg, Lord, and Wolstencraft, for Bowdoin (which makes it 6-3 to Midd). HOWEVER, if this match is moved indoors, things shift even more to Midd. If indoors, I’ll take Bowdoin at 5 and maybe 6 singles (which makes it 7-2 or 8-1 to Midd). This should be a good benchmark for a healthy Polar Bear team, and let them know where they stand in relation to Williams.
Brandeis @ Bates 10am
NESCAC TIEBREAKERS, MINI RIVALRY MATCH, MY COACH KNOWS YOUR COACH. I’m trying to get people more excited about this match, but I’m not that excited myself. I’ve always wondered what it must be like to coach against your old coach (Lamana went to Bates and played for Gastonguay). Bates has been playing better tennis of late, and I think that (similar to Tufts) if they’re healthy (Ellis was pulled for singles vs. Tufts) they should be able to handle the Red Pat. Bates will be stronger in the doubles, though look for Brandeis to take #2 dubs. In the singles, I like Berg and Planche (be careful, this dude may be catching fire at the right time) and some other spot at the bottom of Bates’ lineup to get the job done. I think the score of this match will be closer than the actual result, Bates 5-4 or 6-3.
Babson @ MIT 1pm
In case you all don’t follow Coach Berrigan on twitter, Bab-O is now 5-0 in NEWMAC play. MIT has never lost a conference match (which is ridiculous when you think about it) but the Engineers still have yet to win anything close to a good match this spring. Realistically I don’t think the Beavers have it in them. MIT will be too deep, and Babson’s strength is MIT’s strength (#1 singles). I’m taking MIT 7-2, which is much closer than most of their conference matches.
Williams @ Skidmore 1pm
What the heck is up with Williams? The started their season out west by sneaking by Pomona and Redlands, before getting smoked by CMS. I thought those two close wins would galvanize this team into a top-10 team with a possibility of a Sweet-16 upset at NCAAs. Beating Pomona is no small task, but then they come back and look average in beating Tufts and Bates (both of whom didn’t play their full singles lineup). Williams’s sophomores need to step up. Lil’ Weiss, Schidlovsky, and Astrachan combined to go 2-4 in singles play in those matches. HOWEVER, this team just has way too much talent to lose to Skidmore. For the Thoroughbreds, the ever-present question of Loutsenko hangs over their heads. With Oliver back, Skidmore might be able to push this Williams team; but, without him, Williams rolls to a 7-2 win.
Wesleyan @ Amherst 2pm
What’s that you say? A Wesleyan upset?! Just a joke boys and girls. Nothing like a little self-deprecating humor. I’m not gonna waste too much time on this matchup. The Cards don’t have anyone in the hunt for NCAAs, and Amherst seems to be the class of the region. The Jeffs will have already played a NESCAC match that morning, but their B-team will easily handle Hamilton (actually, their B-team would probably handle Wesleyan just fine too). Wesleyan needs one more big NESCAC win to put them back in the discussion for NESCACs, but it’s just not going to be against Amherst, Jeffs take it 8-1.
RPI @ Midd 3pm
2nd match in 5 hours for the Panthers, though this one should be considerably easier. Johnston/LaBarre will be playing for their NCAA lives, as both still have considerable work to do. I believe Midd will start guys like Jackson, Fitzgibbons, Welch etc. As long as Midd plays 2 of their top 3, they will be able to go about their business with relative ease. Sorry RPI, I still love your women’s team. Midd, 9-0.
Sunday April 20th
Amherst @ Williams 1pm
This rivalry will get its own special preview on Saturday. Until then, just remember, heroes get remembered, but legends never die, follow your heart kid(s), and you’ll never go wrong.