NE Stock Watch/Tuesday Preview

Happy Tuesday, boys and girls. As is the norm for this time of year, we had some big time NE matches over the weekend, so I thought I would give a little team-by-team recap of where things stand with the final two weeks of the regular season remaining. This is not going to be a full blown report card or state of the region, as there is simply too much going on for that to be relevant for more than 24 hours. Instead this is going to be a CHB favorite, #BlurbOverdrive! I will also get to a quick preview of the Bates/Wesleyan match happening this afternoon at the end of the article.

BOWDOIN

ITA Ranking/Blog Power Ranking: #2/#2

Best wins: #3 Chicago (7-2), #5 CMS (7-2), #7 Amherst (8-1), #9 CMU (7-2)

Losses: #6 Middlebury (8-1)

Biggest match remaining: vs. Williams on Saturday, April 21st. A matchup for the top-spot in the conference! If the Polar Bears get the W, there will be a three-way tie for the No. 1 seed in the conference between Bowdoin, Middlebury and Williams.

Current NESCACs projection: If they beat Williams this weekend, the Polar Bears will be tied for the top seed, if they lose, they will likely end up the #3 seed and have to play a quarterfinal match.

Current NCAA projection: Even with the recent drubbing by Midd, Bowdoin remains a No. 1 seed and a strong one at that. Barring a loss to somebody other than Williams, they should remain a top-5 team and host their own NCAA regional.

Stock arrow: HOLD. Before last weekend, I was touting this team as the best in the country. Then, Middlebury happened. I still wouldn’t pick against this crew at NCAAs, but it’s tough to say a stock arrow is pointing up after an 8-1 shellacking at the hands of one of your biggest rivals. That being said, Midd beat Bowdoin twice before NCAAs in 2016 and if I need to get my dancing polar bear gif to remind you how that worked out I have it at the ready.

WILLIAMS

ITA Ranking/Blog Power Ranking: #4/#4

Best wins: #5 CMS (5-4), #6 Midd (5-4), #11 Pomona-Pitzer (6-3), #13 Wesleyan (8-1), #15 Tufts (7-2)

Losses: #3 Chicago (5-2)

Biggest match remaining: at Bowdoin on Saturday, April 21st. Unsurprisingly, this is the biggest match left on the regular season schedule for both teams. Williams wins, and they are going to be the regular season champs, even with a hiccup against Amherst the following weekend.

Current NESCACs projection: Given that Williams is the only team who can win the conference out-right without help, their current projection is the #1 seed, even if that means going through Bowdoin in Brunswick.

Current NCAA projection: The Ephs are a No. 1 seed, should host a region, and depending on their match with Bowdoin and the semis/finals of the conference tournament, have a very real shot to end up as the No. 2 overall seed at NCAAs

Stock arrow: UP! The Ephs are quite possibly the hottest team in the country right now, and are playing well at all six singles spots, not to mention a new top doubles team which is getting rave reviews. The hype appears to be real. PSYCHIN!

MIDDLEBURY

ITA Ranking/Blog Power Ranking: #6/#6

Best wins: #2 Bowdoin (8-1), #11 Pomona-Pitzer (8-1), #15 Tufts (6-3), #17 Brandeis (9-0)

Losses: #4 Williams (5-4), #5 CMS (8-1)

Biggest match remaining: vs Emory (@ Trinity CT) on Saturday, April 21st. It’s not a NESCAC match, but boy does this one have some teeth after Midd’s win over Bowdoin. To me, a Midd win would announce them back as the NCAA title favorite (sorry Williams). The Panthers also have matches with Wesleyan and Amherst to close their regular season, but should be favored in both.

Current NESCACs projection: #2 seed in the conference by virtue of their win over Bowdoin and loss to Williams. That will hold if the Ephs beat the Polar Bears this weekend.

Current NCAA projection: The win over Bowdoin locks the Panthers into NCAAs unless they do something like lose to Trinity Ct this weekend (oh…and lose all of their other four remaining matches). As of right now Midd is a #1 seed and the host of a region, the only thing up for debate is the seeding.

Stock watch: UP! When you beat one of the best two teams in the country 8-1, how could it be anything but up? I’m still a little worried about Farrell and even WDQ on back-to-backs, but anybody who says Midd isn’t a title contender is kidding themselves.

AMHERST

ITA Ranking/Blog Power Ranking: #7/#10

Best wins: #9 CMU (7-2), #10 Wash U (6-3)

Losses: #2 Bowdoin (8-1) #5 CMS (9-0)

Biggest match remaining: at Wesleyan on Saturday, April 21st. Not even close, and arguably the biggest match of the year left when it comes to Pool-C. A win for Herst should (again, barring something unexpected) set the NCAA Pool-C field. A Cards win and we’re getting into some real murkiness, the kind of thing that keeps D3AS up at night.

Current NESCACs projection: Somewhere in the #4-6 range. If Amherst beats Wesleyan, they should finish no lower than the No. 4 seed, even with losses to Midd and Williams (who the Mammoths travel to face during the final weekend of the regular season.

Current NCAA projection: If the tournament started today the Mammoths would be easily in the field, likely as the 4th Pool-C team. However, a loss to Wesleyan this weekend puts Amherst back squarely on the bubble. Normally a team with the above wins and losses would be feeling great about their chances, but given the recent departure of Herst’s #2 and #4 things could get hairy.

Stock watch: DOWN. Yes, they escaped Bates and MIT with close wins, but they did not look impressive while doing so, and I would say they will at best be even odds to win at Wes this weekend.

WESLEYAN

ITA Ranking/Blog Power Ranking: #13/#11

Best wins: #14 Trinity Tx (6-3), #15 Tufts (8-1), #19 Swarthmore (8-1)

Losses: #1 Emory (7-1), #4 Williams (8-1), #5 CMS (9-0), #9 CMU (6-3), #10 Wash U (6-3)

Biggest match remaining: vs Amherst on Saturday, April 21st. A match Wes almost certainly needs to win if they are going to get into NCAAs via Pool-C.

Current NESCACs projection: Given the Cards’ recent win over Tufts, Wes is now projected for the No. 5 seed in the conference tournament; however, if they beat the Mammoths this weekend, they would move up to No. 4 and potentially set up a rematch with Herst in the NESCAC quarters, which could turn into something of a play-in match!

Current NCAA projection: Out. Yup, if the tournament started today Wes would not make it. Luckily for the #FriedFanatics, it does not. The Cards saved their season against Tufts on Saturday, let’s see if they can do it again this weekend!

Stock watch: HOLD. You might think the arrow would be straight up after the weekend, but I’m not jumping back on the bandwagon (that I basically created) just yet. If Wes can throttle Bates later today, I will be more excited about their chances this weekend against the Mammoths.

TUFTS

ITA Ranking/Blog Power Ranking: #15/#12

Best wins: #20 Sewanee (5-4), #25 MIT (6-3)

Losses: #4 Williams (7-2), #5 CMS (7-2), #6 Middlebury (6-3), #13 Wesleyan (8-1)

Biggest match remaining: at Bates, Friday April 20th. Yes, Tufts still has Bowdoin to play, but given their recent throttling by Wesleyan the Jumbos still need to beat the Bobcats in order to make NESCACs (then again, given what happened last year who the hell even knows how you make NESCACs). The Bo’s SHOULD make the postseason with a win over Bates, and from there anything remains possible!

Current NESCACs projection: No. 6 seed. As I said, a win over Bates should net the Jumbos the No. 6 seed (assuming the also beat Colby).

Current NCAA projection: OUT. The loss to Wesleyan means Tufts needs two big NESCAC wins, meaning either Bowdoin and a win in the conference tournament, or to make the tournament finals.

Stock watch: DOWN. They just lost the biggest match of their season. How will the Jumbos respond?

BRANDEIS

ITA Ranking/Blog Power Ranking: #17/#15

Best wins: #24 Bates (5-4), #27 RPI (5-3) 

Losses: #2 Bowdoin (6-3), #6 Middlebury (9-0), #11 Pomona-Pitzer (5-4)

Biggest match remaining: UAA Quarterfinal. Likely against either Wash U or CMU depending on what seed the Judges’ receive. Either way, a win and you enter the Pool-C conversation, albeit the fringe.

Current NESCACs projection: LOLZ. I don’t usually cover Deis, but they deserve to be included in this article! I’ll leave all things UAA related to D3AS (check back soon as next week begins UAA week!) The Judges are currently projected to be the No. 5 seed at UAAs which would likely net them a first round matchup with Wash U.

Current NCAA projection: OUT. The 5-4 loss to PP just kills the Judges right now. If they had converted that doubles sweep, we’d be talking about Brandeis as a legitimate Pool-C contender for perhaps the first time ever, even though they don’t have a top-20 win. However, if they win their 1st round matchup at UAA’s…

Stock watch: UP! Coach Lamanna deserves some talk for Coach of the Year! Deis graduated one of the best trios in Judges’ history last spring (Granoff, Arguello, Bunis), and somehow they are even better this year. Great job, young guys, and great job, Coach!

BATES

ITA Ranking/Blog Power Ranking: #24/#27

Best wins: Trinity Ct (9-0)? 

Losses: #6 Middlebury (7-2), #7 Amherst (5-4), #11 Pomona-Pitzer (7-2), #12 Mary Washington (5-4), #17 Brandeis (5-4), #23 Johns Hopkins (5-4)

Biggest match remaining: vs Tufts on Friday, April 20. Even though Bates doesn’t have a big win this year, they are still in a position where a win over Tufts at home should get them into NESCACs for the second consecutive year.

Current NESCACs projection: Outside looking in (7th). As I said, if Bates beats Tufts they are likely in, but they Bobcats will have to take care of a pesky Colby team on the road as well.

Current NCAA projection: OUT. At this point, it would take the Bobcats winning out (including wins over Wes/Tufts/Bowdoin) and then making the finals of NESCACs for them to even enter the conversation. However they do have a singles player and doubles team who would likely be in the fields if Individuals started today.

Stock watch: HOLD. Bates played Amherst, albeit a depleted Amherst down to the wire, but moral victories only count for so much. Bates’ playoff fate likely rests on the upcoming Tufts match, which I will preview later this week.

MIT

ITA Ranking/Blog Power Ranking: #25/#20

Best wins: Vassar (8-1)? Coast Guard (9-0)?

Losses: #2 Bowdoin (7-2), #6 Middlebury (6-3), #7 Amherst (6-3), #15 Tufts (6-3)

Biggest match remaining: NEWMAC finals. This is a tough one because while Brandeis and Bates still remain on MIT’s schedule, the only match that will matter in terms of the Engineers is the finals of their conference tournament where they will likely take on Babson. The winner of that match (very likely MIT) will advance to the NCAA tournament.

Current NESCACs projection: LOLZ (2x). MIT is in the NEWMAC, and if they do not take the conference title I will eat my hat.

Current NCAA projection: IN! MIT is very likely going to be a No. 2 seed in a region hosted by one of the NESCAC’s top three teams. They have been going to Bowdoin a lot in recent years, and there’s no reason to think something different would happen this year.

Stock watch: HOLD. Sure, MIT blew its chance for a signature win and an opportunity to move into the top 17 or so, but their odds to win an NCAA title haven’t really moved (they were super low before and remain that way now, but I’m saying there’s a chance).

#24 BATES @ #13 WESLEYAN, Tuesday @ 3:30 p.m.

Storylines: As we get down to the last couple weeks of the season, every NESCAC match becomes very important with regards to the postseason. However while NCAAs is the ultimate goal, just making NESCACs would make the season successful for a few teams as well. Wesleyan is in good shape to make the conference tournament after beating Tufts over the weekend, but Bates is still looking for their “signiture” win to get them into the conference’s vaunted top six. They have plenty of opportunities left, but Tuesday afternoon’s battle at Wesleyan appears to be one of the two most winnable matchups remaining (with Tufts being the other). Wesleyan had been playing down to competition of late, before coming out on fire over the weekend. Is that the new norm? Can we trust Wes’ doubles? Will Steven Chen or Ben Rosen solidify their postseason chances?

How Bates wins: An upset from the Bobcats would start, as all great upsets do, with a doubles lead. Rosen/Kauppila will be favored at #1, but given the recent development of Wes’ doubles the Cards will probably be favored at the bottom two spots. A Bates lead most likely comes from winning #1 and #2 dubs. In singles, while Rosen vs Chen is a toss up, it’s a match the Cats need. They will be serious underdogs at #2 singles and probably #6 as well, so Bates will need two more points from their #s 3-5 guys in order to pull off the upset. One thing to watch for is where Nick Glover slots in. He won at #6 against Amherst last weekend and should make his way into the doubles lineup soon if he’s fully healthy.

How Wesleyan wins: Continue the strong doubles play. The Cards play better singles than Bates, so a doubles lead would be very difficult to overcome. A doubles lead and then I’m sure Cards fans want to see some of that resurgent depth continue to impress. Carter at #6 is quite something, and Finkelman will be favored over Quijano on line 2. Even without a doubles lead, Wes will still be favored at #2-6 singles, with Roji vs Yadav being the tightest matchup on paper.

Individual Implications: Rosen vs Chen, Quijano vs Finkelman, and even #1 doubles. As I alluded to, Rosen vs Chen is a battle between two top-6 players who would, barring a collapse, probably come close to locking up an NCAA spot with this win. The battle at #2 singles means more to #Fink in terms of an NCAA berth, with the freshman Card still holding strong at #9 in the region, but one more loss at #2 and it will be tough (although not impossible) for Finkelman to get in. In dubs, the Bates top pair is currently sitting at #4 in the region, but the new team of Eusebio and Carter got two good wins over Tufts and Swat this weekend, which will be enough to have them debut in the next set of rankings. A loss to Williams is holding them back from a potential top-10 debut, but a win over Bates would put them into the conversation (if only on the outside for now) for NCAAs.

Prediction: Wesleyan def Bates 6-3

One thought on “NE Stock Watch/Tuesday Preview

  1. Cole

    What happen at Amherst? They only have 8 players left.

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