Happy Friday, boys and girls, and welcome to The Blog’s first region-specific Pool-C update. As you all know, the NE is filled with a plethora of talented teams. As of the latest ITA rankings (from all the way back on April 9), the top-11 look like this: Amherst, Middlebury, Bowdoin, Williams, Bates, Wesleyan, Trinity, Stevens, Skidmore, Brandeis, and Tufts. Today it is my job to separate the possibly feminine from the awkwardly Canadian, and talk about only those teams who are making a play at one of the highly coveted 5 Pool-C spots. Unfortunately for you non-NESCAC fans, this won’t be an article for you. The three non-CAC teams in the top-11 are Stevens, Skidmore, and Brandeis. At this point, Stevens and Skidmore look like good bets to win their respective conferences (Empire-8 and the Liberty League) while Brandeis is basically guaranteed to snag the 6th spot at the UAA tournament, and needs to win UAA’s to get into NCAAs. The other 8 teams, all have a bunch of important conference matches to play, and they will end up determining which NESCAC teams make the NCAA tournament. This NE Pool-C update has quickly become a NESCAC update, but I’ll try to keep my focus. The teams are listed below in order of their Pool-C chances, and I think this will play out similarly to D3West’s fortnightly articles.
Note: Technically Colby can still make NESCACs by winning their final four conference matches and sneaking in ahead of Trinity. So you’re sayin there’s a chance? Thus ends the Colby portion of this post.
Amherst Lord Jeffs
National Ranking: 4
Power Ranking: 3
Regional Ranking: 1
NESCAC Record: 4-0
Important Matches Remaining: 4/18 vs. Williams, 4/19 @ Wesleyan, 4/24 vs. Bates, 4/25 vs. Middlebury
How they’ll make NCAAs: Unless the Jeffs lose all of the four matches above, they’re in. Remember that whomever wins the NESCAC conference tournament will get the conference’s Pool-A bid. Amherst is the odds on favorite.
How they’ll make NESCACs: Even if the Jeffs were to lose ALL of the remaining four matches, they’d still make NESCACs.
Most likely Outcome: Even after getting hit by graduation after hoisting the national championship, Amherst is still very talented and I believe they are the biggest threat to CMS. The Jeffs should (emphasis on the should) have little issue with Williams, Wesleyan, or Bates. Their battle with Midd will decide who gets the #1 seed in the conference tournament, but the more important implication is for seeding at NCAAs. If either team wins the regular season match and wins the conference tournament, they should be the #2 overall seed at NCAAs, and be considered CMS’ biggest threat.
Middlebury Panthers
National Ranking: 6
Power Ranking: 5
Regional Ranking: 2
NESCAC Record: 4-0
Important Matches Remaining: 4/18 @ Bowdoin, 4/19 @ Bates, 4/25 @ Amherst
How they’ll make NCAAs: Midd is in great shape. Their big win over Emory last weekend has a few of the bloggers swooning over the Panthers. I am a bit more reserved, and still believe that Amherst is the favorite to win the conference. That being said, Midd should have no issue making NCAAs. Even if they were to, God forbid, lose the three big matches left on their schedule, Midd’s resume should still be good enough to get them into the tournament as a Pool-C team.
How they’ll make NESCACs: Like Amherst, even if all hell breaks loose, the Panthers will still make NESCACs. The three matches above are literally the only three regular season matches they have left, and they are all against good competition. Three losses would make quite a discussion over NCAAs, but it’ll still be good enough for the #4 seed in the conference tournament.
Most likely outlook: If the season ended today, Midd would be a #1 seed, likely in the #3-6 range overall. None of the Panther’s remaining matches are at home, but if they can come out of their Maine trip unscathed, Midd should be in good shape for a decent #1 seed. Even if they lost to Amherst twice, they’ll end up around #5, and host a regional with a #2 team like Bowdoin, Hopkins, or even Stevens. In a classic Hansen move, the Panthers seem to be playing their best tennis of the season now. This is a team that no one will want to face in the NCAA quarters.
Bowdoin Polar Bears
National Ranking: 8
Power Ranking: 11
Regional Ranking: 3
NESCAC Record: 4-2
Important Matches Remaining: 4/18 vs. Middlebury, 4/24 vs. Tufts, 4/25 @ Williams
How they’ll make NCAAs: Looking at the schedule above, Bowdoin should lock up a Pool-C spot with two wins, and a win in the first round of NESCACs. I circled the Williams match at the beginning of the season, and there’s a chance that the final weekend could decide which of the NESCAC teams (Bowdoin, Bates, or Williams) takes hold of the final Pool-C spot.
How they’ll make NESCACs: Even though the Bates loss hurts, Bowdoin is still sitting pretty here. The 4 in-conference wins tie for a league high, and even if they end up 4-5 they should still take one of the final spots. If Bowdoin gets past Tufts, they will secure a top-5 seed. I won’t delve too deep down the rabbit hole, but where things start to get hare-y (see what I did there?) is if Williams beats Bates. I promise to come out with a NESCAC scenarios article heading into the final weekend of conference play. But for now, save your brainpower.
Most likely outlook: I said it at the beginning of the season, and I’ll say it again. I think Bowdoin beats Williams at the end of the year to clinch a spot at NCAAs. If Bowdoin wins 2/3 matches, they will get at worst the #4 seed at NESCACs. Who wouldn’t want to see a Bowdoin/Williams 1st round rematch? The Polar Bear’s most likely outcome is to make NCAAs as one of the final two Pool-C spots, and play as a #2 seed at the NESCAC #2’s (likely Midd) host site.
Bates Bobcats
National Ranking: 20
Power Ranking: 14
Regional Ranking: 5
NESCAC Record: 4-0
Important Matches Remaining: 4/19 vs. Middlebury, 4/22 @ Tufts, 4/24 @ Amherst, 4/26 @ Williams
How they’ll make NCAAs: Bates can make a great case for NCAAs by winning 2 of its final 4 matches and winning a 1st round match at NESCACs. That being said, if they beat Tufts and Williams, then beat Trinity Ct or Williams again in the 1st round of the conference tournament, but fall to Midd or Amherst in the semis, the Bobcats will likely still need some help. That would be quite the borderline case, and I can’t wait to hear from all the outraged Bates fans if they get left out. If Bates wins 3 of their 4 big remaining matches, they should jump both CMU and Bowdoin. This is likely the team with the most different scenarios as they come down the stretch. Stay tuned…
How they’ll make NESCACs: The Cats should be pretty set here. Tied atop the NESCAC standings (who would have thought we’d say that at this point of the season?) Bates should have already clinched a spot in the conference tournament. Even if they lose 3 of their remaining 4 matches, Bates will still earn a top 5 seed at NESCACs.
Most likely outlook: Yikes. So many possibilities. I think Bates falls to Midd and Amherst, takes down Tufts, and is a toss-up @ Williams. Before this year, I would never have predicted Bates winning an outdoor match on Williams’ home courts, but they actually matchup decently well with the Ephs. As of 12:11 a.m. on Thursday night/Friday morning I’m taking Bates, giving the Cats the #3 seed at NESCACs, their highest seed in recent memory.
Williams Ephs
National Ranking: 14
Power Ranking: 16
Regional Ranking: 4
NESCAC Record: 2-1
Important Matches Remaining: 4/18 @ Amherst, 4/19 @ Tufts, 4/22 vs. Trinity Ct, 4/25 vs. Bowdoin, 4/26 vs. Bates
How they’ll make NCAAs: Holy hell, forget Hanukah, that’s crazy 8 days of tennis. The Ephs are currently on the outside looking in, and my fellow bloggers believe they will have to jump a few teams to even get back in the discussion. Winning 4 of their final 5 matches should probably do the trick. Having direct wins over Pool-C competitors like Bowdoin, Bates, and Redlands would be enough to get the Ephs into the field of 43.
How they’ll make NESCACs: It’s April 17 and the Ephs have only played 3 conference matches, hence their absurd remaining schedule. Although they are currently tied with Bowdoin for the 4th spot in the conference, the Ephs could still finish anywhere between 1st and 7th. In order to secure a place in the conference tournament Williams will need to beat Tufts. Really? All they have to do is go 1-4 down the stretch and they’ll get a spot? Just goes to show how difficult this ending stretch will be.
Most likely outlook: Williams will be favored vs. Tufts and Trinity, a dawg vs. Amherst, and a push at home against both Bowdoin and Bates. It’s now 12:13 a.m., and I’m not sure I can pick Bates over Williams again, but for consistency’s sake I will. Williams earns the #5 seed at NESCACs, gets a 1st round date with Bowdoin, and likely misses NCAAs. WOW!
Trinity Ct Bantams
National Ranking: 23
Power Ranking: 22
Regional Ranking: 7
NESCAC Record: 3-2
Important Matches Remaining: 4/19 @ Colby, 4/22 @ Williams
How they’ll make NCAAs: It’s gonna be tough for the Bants to pull off the Pool-C bid, but as I said after their 5-4 over Wesleyan on Wednesday, they’re not quite dead, only mostly dead. I put the Colby match on their important matches list because Trinity has to travel up to Colby. Bowdoin came away with a 7-2 win over the Mules the other day, but that match was closer than the score. If it rains and they play indoors, this match could be quite a grind. Trinity has a loss to Bowdoin from their Cali trip, so the Bantams will need to beat Colby and Williams, and win AT LEAST one NESCAC tournament match to even enter the discussion. Realistically, it will probably take making the finals of NESCACs to get the Bants that elusive bid.
How they’ll make NESCACs: I tweeted about how important Trinity’s win over Wesleyan was the other day, especially in terms of making NESCACs. Even if Trinity lost to Colby and Williams, they would likely still make NESCACs (unless Colby takes down Wesleyan and Tufts as well). Trinity doesn’t play Bates, but Bates has the NESCAC indirect because of their Bowdoin win.
Most likely outlook: Trinity will either end up being the #5 or #6 seed at NESCACs. This means they will likely take on Bowdoin, Williams, or Bates. This is a deep team with a bunch of seniors, who might just be hitting their stride at the right time. I’m not saying they’re going to make NCAAs, because I really don’t think they will. I don’t even think they’ll win a round at NESCACs. All I’m saying is that NESCAC foes shouldn’t sleep on the Bants.
Wesleyan Cardinals
National Ranking: 22
Power Ranking: 19
Regional Ranking: 6
NESCAC Record: 1-4
Important Matches Remaining: 4/19 vs. Amherst
How they’ll make NCAAs: Hmmmm, I’m afraid we’ve reached the point where the only way the teams are making NCAAs is by winning the conference tournament and snatching the Pool-A spot. Unfortunately for the Cards…
How they’ll make NESCACs: Realistically, even with a win over Amherst, I don’t believe Wes will make NESCACs. They could end up 4-4 (with the other two wins coming over Hamilton and Conn), but the Cards have been beaten by Trinity, Williams, Bowdoin, and Bates, all of whom are contending for the spots directly above Wesleyan. If the Cards end up tied with any of those teams, they will lose the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Most likely outlook: This is a very young and talented team, who just couldn’t quite put it all together this year. The Kenyon win was big, but the Cards will come back next year hungry for more. They better, or I might never hear the end of it from D3AS.
Tufts Jumbos
National Ranking: 30
Power Ranking: 26
Regional Ranking: 11
NESCAC Record: 0-3
Important Matches Remaining: 4/17 @ Colby, 4/19 vs. Williams, 4/22 vs. Bates, 4/24 @ Bowdoin
How they’ll make NCAAs: Plain and simple, win the conference tournament. NBD, right?
How they’ll make NESCACs: Here’s the hard part. If Tufts beats all 4 teams left on their schedule, and Williams loses the other 4 matches on their schedule, I believe that the Jumbos would sneak into NESCACs. I’m waiting to go into the NESCAC manual this year until I have to, and this scenario has about as much likelihood as D3AS reading to the end of this article, so I’ll check back in a week if I have to. One thing that remember is that Tufts lost to Brandeis earlier this season. In the case of a 3-way tie where each team has split with the other two, common in-region opponents is one of the next tiebreakers. Not good for Tufts.
Most likely outlook: Bummer of a season for Jumbo fans. Tufts will more than likely (like 99%) miss NESCACs and watch the live stats updates for NCAA regionals like the rest of us. Wong going down early really hurt this squad, but the good news is that they only graduate Tan this year. Tan is one of my favorites, but his leaving is not the be-all-end-all. Look out for both Tufts and Wes to make the jump in 2016 that both schools expected in 2015.