Ok, it’s a late lunch, but it’s lunchtime nonetheless. Here is Part II of my NE Midweek Update, previewing the 5 matches between ranked NE teams over the next 36 hours. Part I of my Midweek Update is all weekend recaps, and can be read by clicking on the link. No need for a fancy intro, and the matches begin in the next couple of hours so here we go.
Weds 3 pm #38 Babson @ #25 Brandeis: Our first match of the day is a sneaky good test for the Judges. This is an out of conference match for both teams, but Bab-O is playing its best tennis in recent memory, and are more than just spoilers this spring. The key in this match will be the doubles. Brandeis’ doubles has been something of a roller coaster all season long, but the sweep of Tufts was more than encouraging. D3Regional has already done a nice preview of this match, so I’ll leave the in depth forecasting to him. This is simply a reminder that the match is happening today, and I really think it’s going down to the wire. Barring a doubles sweep, Babson has the potential to take Brandeis to 5-4 or even upset the Judges. Brandeis has a slight edge at the top 2 spots, but Babson might actually be favored at 3-5. #6 could end up being a decider, but my guess is that which ever team leads doubles 2-1 will end up taking the match 5-4. Prediction: Brandeis def Babson 5-4.
Note: If this match is played indoors at Brandeis, everything (and I mean everything) shifts to Brandeis’ favor. Those courts are wicked quick.
Warning: neither team has really been on their twitter games so far this season. Expect sporadic updates from this one.
Weds 3pm #14 Williams @ #8 Middlebury: A matchup that will feature two top twitter accounts as well as two top regional teams. This is Williams’ first big chance to prove D3AS wrong and show their Pool-C legitimacy. Actually, whoever wins this match will probably move into the 3rd Pool-C spot (behind Pomona and Wash U) for the time being, even though Bowdoin will certainly have something to say about that later this season. The loser of this match will be left in a hunt for the 5th and final spot along with Carnegie Mellon. Both these teams play good doubles, but Williams plays better doubles. We don’t know if Schidlovsky is back for this match, but at this point I think we have to assume that he wont be. If that’s the case, then I like Raventos/Shastri over Heidrich/Campbell at #1, but I like Smolyar/Farrell over Sadowsky/Astrachan at #2. If Schidlovsky is back, maybe he’ll partner up with his teammate from last year (Astrachan) and that would make a more formidable #2 team, but for now that’s 1-1 going into 3rd dubs. At #3 the freshmen team of Grodecki/Raghavan have been excellent with their only loss coming 8-6 to Marino/Mehall of CMS. Although NESCAC tennis brings a whole new type of atmostphere, i like the young guns to come through against Frost/De Quant. 2-1 Williams after dubs.
Singles is where Middlebury will have a couple of advantages. One of those is Ari Smolyar. Smolyar has been awesome this year, with his only loss since ITAs coming to Wood (CMS) in 3-sets. He’s the region’s #1 player for a reason, and I expect him to take down Raventos here. #2 is a different kettle of fish, both Shastri and Farrell have impressed me at times over the season, and I’ll label this matchup one of my toss ups (yes that means there are more to come). Harron hasn’t quite hit his stride yet this year at #3, and the Blonde Bomber is in danger of falling into the proverbial sophomore slump. Palmer Campbell, on the other hand, has been a straight up boss. He’s undefeated this spring with Cali wins over Richter (UCSC), Wilson (Redlands), Kim (Pomona) and Marino (CMS). The streak has to end some time, but I can’t in good conscience pick it today. At #4 Jackson Frons has been somewhat up and down for the Panthers, while Grodecki has been one of the more under-appreciated freshmen in the country. This is our second toss up match of the day, and therefore the prediction will come at the end of the preview. Stay tuned. Right, like if you’ve read this far you’re gonna stop. #5 will be another advantage for Middlebury. Mountifield has had his struggles, but I like him over Raghavan or Sadowsky at #5. This leaves us with Weiss and De Quant at the anchor spot. Weiss has been truly all over the place, beating Macey (CMS) but losing to Berkowitz (Skid) badly last weekend. De Quant has a win over Berkowitz, but I’m defying the indirect and taking Weiss for a much needed Williams singles win. That leaves us at 4-3 Midd with our two tossup singles matches left on the court. You know I’m picking the match to go 5-4, but I’ll wuss out and say the two tossups split and Midd holds on for the big win. Prediction: Midd def Williams 5-4.
Weds 4pm #24 Tufts @ #25 Trin Ct: A match that will undoubtedly fall under the nation’s radar as the higher profile Midd/Williams match is going on at the same time. Both of these teams know how big this match is. Both have lost a NESCAC match to higher competition (Tufts to Amherst and Trin to Bowdoin) and the loser of this match is going to be in some serious conference tournament trouble. Considering Bates has already beaten Wesleyan, right now it looks like the Bobcats have the edge in the 4 team race for the final two NESCAC spots. The loser of this match will be on the outside looking in, and need to beat both Bates and Wesleyan if they are to turn their season around. Tufts’ loss to Brandeis last week was anything but inspiring. Before that match I would’ve taken the Jumbos here without too much second though. Now, I’m not so sure. Neither team plays great dubs, but I like Trinity at #1, and Tufts at #3. That leaves #2 as a swing match and I’m taking the Bantams. Battle/Cary were great in Cali, but haven’t played wonderful dubs since. Carpenter and Myers have also had an up and down season, but I’ll go with the Bantam seniors to give Trinity a 2-1 lead after dubs. In singles, we could see a bunch of close matches. Telkedzhiev has lost 4 straight, but they were all against top competition (Cardenas, Yasgoor, Granoff and Yaraghi.)
Carpenter has had a bit of a resurgence after falling off a cliff at the end of last spring, and I like him to continue Telk’s bad luck. #2 could be a close match, as both Mbithi and Battle can play some fiery tennis, but I like Battle to pull out a much needed Tufts win. At #3 I think Tufts has an edge with Jacobson over Matingo, but at #4 I like Traff to put Trinity one match away from the clinch with a win over Cary. This leaves Tufts down 4-3 with #5 and #6 still to play, and luckily for Tufts those are their best spots. Gupte and Ali have been money so far this year, and I don’t see that changing. While it’s nice to have seniors like Levin and Mandel anchoring your lineup, I’m going Tufts with wins at 5&6 to pull out the close conference win. Prediction: Tufts def Trinity Ct 5-4
Thurs 4pm #3 Amherst @ #41 MIT: This is not really a preview I want to write, but it’s an NE matchup between two teams in our Power Rankings so here we are. Long gone are the Black Swan led MIT teams of yesteryear, and something tells me Amherst won’t trot out it’s full lineup for this one. MIT has always been weak in their doubles play, and I fully expect the Jeffs to jump all over the Engineers from the beginning. This match, much like this preview, will be short and sweet. Even if the teams are stuck indoors at MIT’s bubble, it’s no shift in advantage. Amherst dismantled Wash U indoors last weekend, and going MIT’s indoor courts different enough (see Conn College) to give the Engineers a distinct home court advantage. A sweep would be a bold prediction, but that’s the kind of writer I am. Prediction: #3 Amherst def #41 MIT 9-0
Thurs 4pm #7 Bowdoin @ #20 Bates: Finally we have Thursdays’ Maine matchup (see what I did there) and a rivalry match to boot. Bates beat Bowdoin last spring for the first time I can remember, but this year’s Polar Bear team is playing at a whole different level. I guess that’s what happens when you get a recruiting class of three different 4-stars and they all enjoy playing together/gel with the team. Bates does present an interesting matchup for the Polar Bears, as the Bobcats are known for their doubles. Bowdoin generally struggles on the doubles front, but have been playing better lately. This will be a good measuring stick for Bowdoin’s dubs. If they can come out and take either 2 or 3 doubles matches from Bates, well let’s just say other teams would take notice. The other big thing to not before we get to predictions is that Bates is a TOTALLY different team with Schwartz in the lineup. There are some weird rumors flying around so let’s just hope that Schwartz is ok and back as a mainstay of this Bates team. Ok, at #1 dubs I’m going with Planche/Ellis over the LT’s. Trinka and Tercek should be a better team than their results show, but Planche has the dubs experience and Ellis has been one of the more pleasant surprises so far this year. The edge goes to Bates, but it’s slight, this will become a theme in the dubs. In the #2 and #3 matches I’m less inclined to give a big edge either way. The Kyle’s have been only ok, and a recent change to Roddy/Wolstencraft might have been made, but Ordway/Lee strike me as a streaky team. Slight edge to Bates, but again it is slight. I come away from #3 with (shockingly) a similar idea. I believe Wolfe/Savage are a better #3 team than Roddy/Bragg, but Rosen/Schwartz have looked mighty fine for the Cats so far this year. Slight edge to Bates at #3, giving them slight edges at all three spots. I must be out of my mind. Even though the analysis says it, I just can’t pick the Cats to sweep Bowdoin. But I will give them a 2-1 lead headed into singles.
Fortunately for Bowdoin, this is where the tables turn. If they can avoid going down 3-0, they should be in good shape. Hmmm, I feel as though I’ve written that exact sentence multiple times before. The Polar Bears have come back from a doubles sweep twice this year, and nearly did it a 3rd time against Pomona. If Bates is going to compete in the singles, it will have to be at the top of the lineup. Even though Bates is deeper than usual, Bowdoin’s depth has been downright filthy. Planche and Trinka could be a good match, but the edge goes to Trinka. Planche has been very up and down so far this year, and even though Trinka has lost some matches, he still has wins over Alla, Lipscomb, and Granoff. #2 will be another close match, as Bragg has arguably been Bowdoin’s weakest point all year (that’s crazy, if anything I would’ve argued preseason that Bragg at #2 would be Bowdoin’s strongest spot). I like Bragg to take down Ellis in 3 sets. We get a dandy in Schwartz and Wolfe at #3. These freshmen have both been superb, and this match has 3 sets written all over it. #4 might be Bowdoin’s biggest advantage. Savage hasnt lost yet this year, and while Feldman seems to be able to push anyone I dont see him beating Chase. #5 is another matchup of fantastic freshmen, but Tercek has just been a little bit better than Rosen so far this spring. It could go the distance as well, but I’m taking Tercek to clinch the match for the Polar Bears. At #6 we get Roddy and Ordway, which is yet another good match. Similar to #5, Ordway has been good, but Roddy has been better. If the match is being played indoors, this match might shift a little more to Ordway (same with Ellis at #2), but I still like Roddy (and Bragg) if that happens. All in all, Bates can certainly put up a fight, but I think they will have a better chance against a team like Williams than Bowdoin. Prediction: Bowdoin def. Bates 6-3.