NE Individuals Update/Bonus Preview

Happy Tuesday evening, boys and girls. Last week I gave you a little NE NCAA update with a bonus match preview at the end, and tonight I’ve decided to come back for seconds. I’m going to dive into the horribly unpredictable nature of the Individual regional rankings, and also do some looking ahead to see who has the best chance of earning one of those coveted spots (8-singles and 4-doubles) to NCAAs. First of all, let’s remember that while the ITA rankings are generally good guidelines, the NCAA committee and ITA committees are very different and the NCAA does not always follow the ITA. For your reference, here are the regional rankings as of 4/14. The next rankings don’t come out until 4/28, and those will be the last rankings given before NCAAs (although there will still be tennis played after that date and before the date of selections). Feel free to ask any questions either in the comments section or via email (D3Northeast@gmail.com), because this is nothing more than some spotty guesswork.

NCAA SINGLES

The total locks: Noah Farrell (Middlebury). Noah could lose all of his remaining matches, and I believe he would still make NCAAs. He’s been the best player in the country for about 6 months now, ripping through the New England ITA and Fall College Nationals without losing a set. This spring he has wins over Rosen (Bates), Liu (Wesleyan), Butts (CMS), Raventos (Williams) and Tercek (Bowdoin). You’ll notice the Butts win is out of region, but considering Skylar is the 3rd best player in the country according to the ITA, that win is a nice bonus. Farrell’s two toughest matches remaining in the regular season are Zykov (Amherst, if he plays), and Leung (Skidmore). Neither will hurt Farrell that badly (though he’s showing no signs of weariness) because both are top-7 in the region. Farrell is a lock for NCAAs (barring injury), and has a great shot to enter the tournament as the overall #1 seed.

The next best things: Matt Heinrich (Stevens), Kai Yuen Leung (Skidmore), Luke Tercek (Bowdoin). Kind of a big group here lurking behind Farrell (just wait until we get to the contenders).Heinrich, Leung, and Tercek are ranked 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in the region by the ITA, and for good reason. Heinrich is as close to a lock as you get, but he isn’t Farrell. Wins over Leung and Tercek boost him to the #2 spot, but he also has a couple of great out of region wins (Maassen (PP) and Chua (Chicago)). The blessing/curse for Stevens is that they have played the toughest part of their schedule. Matty Ice won’t see another ranked opponent at #1 until NCAAs. This means he shouldn’t have too much trouble, but it could also mean that losses to a couple of no-name #1’s from the Empire 8 who are taking their last shot at putting the #HeinrichManeuver to rest could prove disastrous. Leung had a fantastic fall, and is still blessed with some of the perks. He beat Heinrich at the Northeast ITA, and earned two wins at Small College Nationals. His only spring losses were to Heinrich and Zykov (Amherst), and he has a great regional win over Tercek. Like Heinrich, Leung doesn’t have too much left on his schedule, just a few conference matches and a date with Mr. Farrell. However, if Rosen or Reid beat Tercek, Leung might begin to fall with the Polar Bear bc that is his best regional win this spring. Tercek has three losses this spring, but fortunately for him they came to Farrell, Heinrich, and Leung. Luke still has looming matchups with Raventos (Williams), Rosen (Bates), Reid (Colby) and Gupte (Tufts). Losses to Rosen or Reid won’t kill his chances, but 3 losses out of four might make the sophomore a bit nervous.

The more than likelies: Ben Rosen (Bates). Rosen gets a category all to himself here. His only spring losses came to Butts (CMS), Farrell (Midd), and Zykov (Amherst). He has some tough matches left, namely Liu (Wesleyan), Gute (Tufts), Raventos (Williams), and Tercek (Bowdoin). If he can go 2-2 in those 4 matches, I don’t think the committee will be able to leave the sophomore out. Right now, Bates isn’t projected to make NESCACs, so once Rosen’s regular season ends (vs Tercek and Bowdoin on 4/27), he won’t have another chance for a good win/bad loss. However, Rosen’s best regional win right now is Reid (Colby). If Reid were to start losing (see more below), Rosen’s stock might take a hit as well. Ben absolutely controls his own destiny with regards to NCAAs, which is more than you can say about most of the guys in the next category, but there is still tennis left to be played.

The contenders: Carl Reid (Colby), Anton Zykov (Amherst). This is the group that has the most to lose and the most to gain in my opinion. Reid would be in the above category with Rosen, but he just lost to Perez (Babson), so his NCAA hopes took a big hit. Reid still has Liu (Wesleyan), and Tercek (Bowdoin) to go. If he wins both, my guess is he’s in. After the Babson loss, the Tercek match might be a must win. Zykov had just started finding his form (beating Rosen (Bates) and Leung (Skidmore) in the past couple weeks). However, Zykov was absent from the MIT and Wesleyan matches this past week, which could be cause for concern. Zykov has missed time due to injury in the past, and still has Farrell (Midd) and Raventos (Williams) on his schedule before NESCACs (assuming Amherst makes NESCACs). All it would take is probably a win over Raventos, and then a win over whoever Amherst plays in the 1st round of NESCACs (maybe Raventos again, maybe Liu(Wesleyan)) and Zykov should be in.

The second fiddles: Steven Chen (Wesleyan), Luke Trinka (Bowdoin), Ari Smolyar (Middlebury). Once again we have the age-old argument of where a #2 singles player fits into the regional rankings. As far as #2’s go, these guys are some of the best in the business, and all three are currently bordering on a spot to NCAAs (Chen is 8, Trinka is 9, and Smolyar is 10 in the most recent rankings). Smolyar just beat Trinka last weekend, so the Panthers should jump the Polar Bear, but Chen has direct wins over both guys. Chen has relatively easy matches left with Granoff (Brandeis) and Ellis (Bates) probably offering the most competition, but he should be favored to complete a perfect regular season. At NESCACs, Wesleyan will most likely play Tufts and then Middlebury. If Chen loses to Smolyar, even after having a perfect season, my guess is that Ari would jump him. Smolyar plays behind the best #1 in the country, and Chen’s #1 (Liu) has been up and down. The battle between these two guys could come right down to the wire. Unfortunately for Trinka, the loss to Smolyar really puts the senior behind the 8-ball now. If Chen and Smolyar lose, he has the chance to jump them, but their losses also hurt his stock. I’m afraid I don’t see a likely scenario where Trinka makes NCAAs without playing #1 for a match and earning a big win.

The dark horses: Michael Liu (Wesleyan), Jose Raventos (Williams). Ok, here’s the negative view for Chen and his #2 counterparts. At some point the committee is going to have to take into account that Liu and Raventos play #1 for their respective teams. Liu has losses to Farrell (Midd), Tercek (Bowdoin), and his category counterpart in Raventos, and at some point that should affect Chen’s ranking. It might not be as simple as saying that Raventos has a win over Chen, but there must be some consequence. Perhaps the committee cares less about player position this year than in years past given that the previous category is mainly made up of #2’s. While Wesleyan’s schedule isn’t too tough the rest of the way, Liu has matchups with Rosen (Bates), Reid (Colby) and Bunis (Brandeis) all before NESCACs. More Liu losses shouldn’t bode well for Chen (as I said above), but a sweep might just push both him and his #2 into the final-8. Raventos got a big win over Liu last weekend, but it’s his best regional win so far. Williams still has Bates (Rosen), Bowdoin (Tercek), and Amherst (Zykov) left on its schedule, so Raventos still has the opportunity to play his way in. He’s also aided by the fact that a Liu loss hurts both Liu and Chen (similarly for Tercek/Trinka and Farrell/Smolyar). Raventos has a better shot than Liu, in my opinion, and if one of the #2’s falls he might be in line to steal a bid.

The not gonna happens (but they’ve had a great year!): Kyle Wolfe (Bowdoin), Brian Grodecki (Williams), Palmer Campbell (Middlebury), McKinley Grimes (RPI), Ryan Bunis (Brandeis). A short and sweet section. Wolfe, Grodecki, and Campbell have all been great this year. They would play #1 for a bunch of teams across the country, but unfortunately for them they play #3 for their teams (who, in fact, are very fortunate). It’s almost impossible for a #3 to qualify for NCAAs in a region as deep as the NE, because there are simply too many good #1’s let alone #2’s. It has happened in the past (I think Amherst got in Chafetz, Rattenhuber, and Kahan in a few years back, or something like that), but in the ever deepening world of DIII tennis I think it will be a long time before that is the case again in the NE. Grimes and Bunis don’t have the problem of playing #3, as both play #1 for their respective squads, but there isn’t enough time left for either to make a significant push in the rankings. Bunis played too much of the year at #2 and even #3, while Grimes just doesn’t have the quality opponents left on his schedule (he also didn’t play at all last weekend against St. Lawrence or Vassar).

NCAA DOUBLES

Again, just for reference, here are the ITA rankings as of 4/14. However, I’m not sure you’ll need it. The doubles is a much much simpler situation than the singles. There are already three teams that have just about locked up bids.

The more than likelies: Trinka/Tercek (Bowdoin), Heinrich/Foran (Stevens), Leung/Tong (Skidmore). Tercek/Trinka (Bowdoin) have been the best team in the region all spring. They have wins over #3 Skid, #4 Amherst, and #5 Middlebury. The #2 Stevens (Heinrich/Foran) and #3 Skidmore (Leung/Tong) doubles teams are in similar positions to their respective singles counterparts. Stevens doesn’t have any ranked competition left, but they will be favored to win the rest of their matches and easily lock up a bid. Skidmore still has Farrell/Smolyar (Middlebury), which could cause some problem as that team is the #5 team in the country. However, Skid has a win over Amherst (currently #4 in the country), so a loss to Midd would likely only bump them down one spot to #4 (and they’d still make NCAAs). It would very likely take multiple losses from Skidmore for the All-American doubles team of Leung and Tong to fall out of the top-4. If Amherst beats Midd, and Midd beats Skid, then all three teams will have beaten each other. In that scenario, I think Skidmore remains in the top-4 due to their gaudy W-L record and their fall results.

Fighting for the last spot: Revzin/Solimano (Amherst), Farrell/Smolyar (Middlebury). These two teams play each other on Saturday, and the winners should feel good about their chances of making NCAAs. This is the most important match remaining on Midd’s schedule with regards to Individual NCAAs, bc a win over Skid might not mean much if coupled with a loss to Amherst. Both teams have other chances for slip-ups, Midd still has Traff/Glickman (Trinity CT) who have been playing very well, and Amherst still has Grodecki/Schidlovsky (at Williams) in their annual rivalry match. After that both teams are likely to play at NESCACs as well, throwing another wrench into the prediction process, but unless one of the teams beats Bowdoin at NESCACs, they shouldn’t be able to improve their ranking all that much.

#25 Bates @ #11 Wesleyan

Intro/Doubles: After all that Individuals talk, let’s get back to the team action with a bonus preview! Bates actually beat Wesleyan last year, which is one of the main reasons that this match gets its own preview. Based on recent results, Wesleyan should be a heavy favorite. However, Bates does present a couple of matchup troubles for the Cards. Bates’ #1 doubles team has played very well this year, and would be favored on a neutral court. However, with this match being at Wesleyan, it probably becomes more of a toss-up. #2 is a battle of strengths, and should be a good contrast of styles. While power is more effective in doubles, i’ll still take the grinding returns of Liu/Chen. #3 is the biggest advantage in the doubles, and it goes to Wesleyan. Samson/Rudovsky have played well this year (although they did just lose to Amherst over the weekend), but Bates’ #3 team (Leiner/Quijano) is under .500 in 2016. All in all, I think Wesleyan takes a 2-1 lead, with Bates taking #1 dubs, which effectively ends Bates’ shot at back-to-back wins over the Cards.

#1) Rosen (Bates) vs Liu (Wesleyan). Liu is coming off a monster week, but Rosen’s only losses in 2016 came to Butts (CMS), Farrell (Midd, 13-11 in a super), and Zykov (Amherst, and in another super). Liu did just win against Amherst, but he beat Bessette, who played #3 against Bates). Could be a very long match, but I like Rosen to strengthen his NCAA chances even further and come out with a win. Bates, 6-3, 7-6. 

#2) Ellis (Bates) vs Chen (Wesleyan). Ellis has a couple nice wins this year, and is usually a tough out, but all Chen does is win win win no matter what. He’s 9-0 on the year, and appears to relish the 3rd set. This one could be another long match with long points, but it’s Chen’s match to lose. Wesleyan, 6-4 6-3. 

#3) Scott (Bates) vs Eusebio (Wesleyan). Eusebio is riding high off of his come from behind 3-set win over Yaraghi, while Scott’s had a tough first year at Bates. In a battle of transfers, the edge goes to Professor Portugal over Kapitan Kiwi. Wesleyan, 6-3, 6-1. 

#4) Ordway (Bates) vs Samson (Wesleyan). Ordway finally moved up to #4 at some point in the past week or so, but I believe he’ll have some issues with Samson. Joachim’s only loss on the year came back in his 1st match against PP, and since then he’s beaten the #4’s from Bowdoin, Middlebury, Williams, Amherst, and Tufts. Advantage, Samson. Wesleyan, 6-1, 6-2. 

#5) Quijano (Bates) vs Daniels (Wesleyan). The bottom spots are matches that Bates probably needs to win if they are going to somehow pull off this upset. Daniels is still a recent addition to the Wes lineup, and his recent loss to Amherst might mean his lineup time is limited. Quijano has been up and down this year, and not much suggests that he will take this match, except for the lineup pressure on Daniels. CD gets the job done. Wesleyan, 7-5, 6-4.  

#6) Feldman (Bates) vs Roberts (Wesleyan). Feldman has moved down to 6, and Wednesday will be the first good test he’s had there. Both Feldman and Roberts have had their issues this spring, and this match should point one of these guys in the right direction moving forwards. If Coach Fried has seen enough from either Daniels or Roberts, then we may get a Yadav sighting at #6, which would probably be bad news for Bates. Wesleyan, 6-4, 6-2. 

Match Prediction: I believe I have this at 7-2 Wesleyan, and the Cards avenge last year’s defeat. If Bates takes a lead after doubles, this match could be yet another Wesleyan nailbiter, but I think the Cats will need a sweep if they are going to put that pressure on Coach Fried.