#8/#8 Middlebury @ #5/#9 Williams
The battle for the 2nd seed in the NESCAC commences this weekend as the defending National Champion Ephs travel to Middlebury to do battle with the Panthers. I was writing my State of the Region (just you wait, it’s gonna be crazy) when I realized that this match was actually tomorrow (Friday April 11th) and not over the weekend. I realized that I could not let this match go without giving you all a mini-preview at the very least. The rankings above represent each team’s Blog ranking and their shiny new ITA ranking. These are clearly the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the NE, and on the right day both could pose a significant threat to Amherst and the top spot in the region. A win here would go a very long ways in terms of a #1 seed for NCAAs. Let’s get to the matchups. Central, I assume that your correct score offer also applies to me? In terms of predicting, this is a mini-nightmare because these two teams do not have one opponent in common so far this season (pretty rare at this point in the season).
#1 Doubles
Johnston/Lebovitz vs. Micheli/Schidlovsky
We could see some real fireworks in this one as we have two very powerful doubles teams. Johno/Lebo find themselves outside of the top 4 and need a marquee win to put themselves back in the conversation for NCAAs. Unfortunately I don’t think they’re going to find it here. Williams takes #1 dubs, 8-5 (1-0 Williams)
#2 Doubles
Jones/Campbell vs. Harron/Astrachan
This is the best doubles matchup for the Panthers. Campbell and Jones are a proven force, while C-Rad and Astro have been a bith shaky as of late. I’ll take the experience, though still in a tight matchup, 8-6. (1-1)
#3 Doubles
Smolyar/Heidrich vs. Raventos/Shastri
Swing match alert! Both teams have been playing better recently, however this Williams team has just a bit more firepower than the Panthers duo. I’ll take Rosè in another tight one, 9-7 (2-1 Williams)
#1 Singles
Johnston vs. Micheli
With the Ephs up 2-1 after dubs, Midd will need to start fast in the singles. They can’t let Williams smell a victory, because with this Ephs team, there’s no turning back from that point. Johnston will need to win the 1st set if he’s going to win this match, but I’m taking Matty Ice in two close sets, 7-5, 6-4 (3-1 Williams)
#2 Singles
Campbell vs. Lil’ Weiss
Our first singles swing match, don’t worry we have more to come, is a doozy of a sophomore battle. Both PC and HW have had their ups and downs this season. PC beat Smith-Denis just last week, while Lil’ Weiss took down Brad Wong in his most recent dual match. I think this one’s going 3 sets, and I’m giving it to Campbell, 7-5, 1-6, 6-3 (3-2 Midd).
#3 Singles
Jones vs. Harron
A 2nd swing match? Already? D3NE, you a crazy sonofabitch. The classic tale of Age vs. Beauty as the Senior BJ will likely need to make mincemeat of the frosh Harron if his team is going to come out victorious. Yet again, I will be surprised if this one does not go the distance. After a fair amount of debate, I’m siding with youth. Harron wins it, 3-6, 7-5, 6-2 (Williams 4-2).
#4 Singles
Mountifield vs. Schidlovksy
Recently, I’ve been somewhat harsh on our British friend, Courtney. But I like his matchup here against the big hitting Schidlovsky. Alvin has better results so far this season, but I’m going with my gut and taking Courtney in a much-needed Panthers victory, 7-6, 6-2 (Williams 4-3).
#5 Singles
Smolyar vs. Raventos
Another absolute barnburner! Ari had been on a string of wins and even earned himself a Player of the Week win before falling to Al-Houni (another POTW) in his last match. Raventos has had a couple of HUGE wins, including the clincher against Pomona in an epic 5-4 battle. We already know that if the match comes down to Sweetness, he’s got what it takes to pull through. A 3rd swing match, but I’m taking Jose to clinch for the Ephs, 6-4, 7-5 (Willims 5-3).
#6 Singles
Frons vs. Astrachan
Finally a singles match in which I think Midd has an edge. Astro just lost in straight sets to Cary and Tufts, and I don’t see him overpowering Frons. Midd takes #6, 6-4, 6-2 (Williams 5-4).
Wow! Before going through the matchups I thought I was going to end up with Midd 5-4, but I don’t go against my picks. I cannot stress the importance of the doubles in this match. I believe that whichever team takes the 2-1 lead (or 3-0 though that seems unlikely) will end up winning the match. One thing I have not mentioned is that it has been raining this evening in Middlebury, Vt. It’s supposed to be 60’s and sunny tomorrow, so I’m basing all of my picks off the idea that the match will be played outdoors. If they do move indoors, I believe it significantly benefits Middlebury. I will be disappointed if this match does not go 5-4, and frankly I’m already excited about the idea of these teams playing again in the semis of NESCACs. Both teams are pretty good about updating their twitter feeds. Midd will give you better updates, but Williams’ will be far more entertaining. Start time is scheduled for 4pm. Sigh, I guess it’s back to my State of the Region (you all better be damn appreciative, this thing has taken me the better part of the week).