NCAC Tourney Preview

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There really is no point in going match by match for the NCAC as only 3 teams have a legitimate shot at taking the title. Instead I will talk briefly about those three teams and what they have to do to win the AQ bid to nationals. The NCAC has a lot of teams that are solid, but none will challenge the top 3 in their matches. Here is the bracket if you are interested in seeing it in full: http://www.northcoast.org/sports/mten/2013-14/files/2014NCACChampionshipRelease.pdf

The favorites: Kenyon Lords

A month ago, no one would have challenged that Kenyon is the overwhelming favorite to win this tournament. However, with the loss of Raz to “other interests,” Kenyon all of a sudden becomes extremely vulnerable. The good news for the Lords is they absolutely won’t be challenged in the first two rounds. They got the 1 seed as they have beaten both Depauw and Denison earlier in the season which will be a nice bonus. They may get a semi fight out of Allegheny (remember they lost to Denison early in the year 5-4), but if the tournament is still played to decision, then I can’t see this one lasting too long. This exact match was played just last week and Kenyon won 7-2. My guess is it will end 5-1 with ‘Gheny taking one doubles again and Kenyon winning 4-6 singles easily. It’s too bad that the match won’t be completed because Heerboth and Cole would be a good one. What this means is Kenyon will skate to the final which will help a lot. The NCAC used to play 2 matches on Friday and then the final on Saturday, but after looking at the conference website, it looks like that has changed to playing one round each day. First Round: Friday, Second Round: Saturday, and the Final is on Sunday. I will discuss the final at the end of this preview.

The underdog: Depauw Tigers

Depauw has to be licking their chops at a potential match-up against Kenyon in the finals, but they are going to have to work to get there first. They will take on rival Wabash in the first round (they won 8-1 last week) and then a rematch against Denison in the semi-finals. I will be the first to admit I was a little surprised at how easily Depauw dispatched Denison, but it was a home match and they did sweep the Big Red in doubles which I am sure took all the air out of a potential upset. The doubles weren’t even close and that was a bit surprising. While I expected Depauw to take two of the three, I definitely thought it would be a lot closer at every spot. The scores were 8-3, 8-2, and 8-4. This time could be a bit different as Denison has the advantage of playing at home. I will say I was shocked Kopecky fell at 2. If they want to challenge for the championship, they will need to have him playing his best. I think Depauw will get through Denison again and take on Kenyon in the final in what could be a bracket buster type of match. Needless to say a lot of Pool C contenders will have an interest in the outcome. Depauw fell 5-3 to Kenyon in March, but Raz won both his matches at 1 singles and 2 doubles.

The dark horse: Denison Big Red

Well the Big Red had a bit of a let down against Depauw, but as I mentioned before, they will have a few things going for them heading into the conference tournament. The first and most important is they are playing at home.Home court advantage is always important especially in a tournament lasting three days. What does Denison need to do to beat Depauw? Well first and foremost, they can’t get swept in doubles. Denison has always been built on doubles and depth and both let them down this past Saturday. The bright spot was Marczak at 2 singles. I expected Veltman to win at 4 and he did, but Cempre going down at three was a surprise. In my opinion, if Denison wants to win, they need to take 2 and 3 doubles and then 2, 3, and 4 singles. It is doable, but Depauw is a match-up nightmare for them. Oddly enough, I would say Denison is better suited to take down the likes of Kenyon before they would Depauw so if they were to happen to make it through to the final, they would have just as much of a chance as taking down the Lords as Depauw would. They lost to Kenyon 6-3 (without Raz). Unfortunately I don’t think they will get the chance.

Finals Prediction: Kenyon vs. Depauw

The battle royale. Here is the breakdown of the match. Remember, Kenyon beat Depauw earlier 5-3, but Raz was in the lineup.

1 doubles: Geier/Rosensteel vs. Kopecky/Miles

Advantage Depauw. Geier/Rosensteel have gone on a bit of a slide as of late as they dropped a bad loss to Allegheny and then most recently lost to Carnegie. Kopecky/Miles are on the upswing as they have only lost one match to a D3 opponent all year and that was to Whitewater which isn’t a bad loss. In the earlier match-up between the two, Kopecky and Miles won easily 8-3 and I don’t see this one going any different. Depauw wins 8-5.

2 doubles: Haas/Heerboth vs. Vanatta/Kaczkowski

Advantage Kenyon, but barely. Haas/Heerboth are the newly formed duo after the Raz departure and they were able to get a comfortable win against Carnegie which is a solid performance. The jury is still out on this combination, but I think you have to favor them here. Depauw’s weakest spot is 2 doubles, but they are capable of winning this match. I think this is a must win for Kenyon and they will be able to do it either in a tiebreaker or one break. Kenyon wins 8-6

3 doubles: Kaye/Roberts vs. Farrell/Martin

Advantage Depauw. Kaye and Roberts are another new combination compared to Farrell and Martin who have been playing together all year. The Depauw tandem beat a stronger Kenyon team back in March so they have to think that will give them a slight edge. I think this is another close one, but I am going with Depauw wins in a breaker 9-8(4). If I get that one right, I am going to Vegas.

1 singles Heerboth vs. Miles

Advantage Kenyon. Heerboth is one of the premier players in the region. He lost a battle this past weekend to Alla, but I still favor him in this match in what could potentially be a blowout. I just gave Miles POW honors, but a win over Guerra isn’t terribly great. Heerboth is a match-up that Miles will not like. Kenyon wins 6-3, 6-2

2 Singles Geier vs. Kopecky

Advantage Kenyon. This really depends on which Kopecky shows up. If its the Kopecky who beat Heerboth 2 and 2 (yes that happened) then Depauw will be thrilled. If it is the Kopecky that has lost some easier matches then I would say Kenyon is sitting pretty. The good news for the Tigers is it is somewhat of a favorable matchup. Both guys like to blast forehands so I can’t imagine this will be a long drawn out match with 30 ball rallies (Alla Heerboth). I think Geier is a bit steadier and wins this one in three sets. Kenyon wins 6-3, 3-6, 6-3

3 Singles Rosensteel vs. Kaczkowski

Advantage Kenyon. Rosensteel is probably the weakest position for the Lords, but yet I have him favored to win this match. That is because these two guys played each other back in March (albeit at 4 singles) and Rosensteel won. Depauw just recently switched their 3 and 4 singles spot and while it may make since against most teams, I like Farrell if he were to play here, but for now we have to stick with what the probable lineup is. Kenyon wins 6-4, 7-6.

4 Singles Huber vs. Farrell

Advantage Depauw. Again I am not sure if Farrell will play 3 or 4, but either way he is favored at this spot. Yes he has struggled against the bigger competition this year at 3, but the freshman has posted big wins before (see ITA results) and I see him beating Huber here. Huber is playing too high in the lineup in my opinion. Depauw wins 7-5, 7-5.

5 Singles Fiaschetti vs Bertolini

Advantage Depauw. Fiaschetti is coming off eating a bread stick and a bagel against Carnegie so his confidence is as low as his appetite at the moment. Bertolini isn’t anywhere near that level, but I think he is the clear favorite here. He sometimes goes missing (see third set against Kenyon last time) and this would be a bad time to do that, but I think he pulls it out in three tight sets. Depauw wins 7-6, 2-6, 6-3

6 Singles Haas vs Bruyseels or Santen

Advantage Kenyon. Haas put in a very good performance against Carnegie and proved he is as good as anyone at the six spot. I thought he should have been playing above Fiaschetti all season long, but that hasn’t been the case. Tristan Kaye has also seen some time here, but after the weekend, Haas definitely should get the nod. Depauw has changed their six a few times as well but neither Bryseels or Santen will be favored over Haas. Kenyon wins 6-4, 6-4.

So there you have it. Depauw is up 2-1 after dubs, but the Lords come back and are able to win this match 5-4. Obviously with only playing to decision, the match may not end 5-4, but if it were to all play out, this is where I see it finishing. I cannot overstate how important getting one of the doubles is. Depauw is capable of the sweep and I don’t think Kenyon is strong enough without Raz to come from that big of a hole. Depauw has only been behind after doubles twice this year and that was against two teams that are top in the country in doubles (Wash U and Gustavus). It should be an interesting match and sadly one that will have no twitter updates as the NCAC hates technology and doesn’t offer any updates either from live stats or team’s doing their own thing.

4 thoughts on “NCAC Tourney Preview

  1. MIAATIME

    Would love to see a preview of the MIAA conference.

    1. D3CentralTennis

      Here’s my preview. Kalamazoo is going to win for the 76th straight time. I am not sure what else there is to say here. They lost a total of 1 individual match in conference this year.

  2. j

    Tough luck for Cole this year, his only spring losses were to Krimbill and Heerboth in super breakers. But he has no wins over anyone else in contention for nationals because his team didn’t play anybody that could’ve given him a shot.

    1. D3CentralTennis

      I couldn’t agree more. Honestly his coach is to blame in my opinion. When you have a player like Cole who is potentially good enough to make it to nationals, you need to give him every chance to play the guys necessary. Alleghney is challenged a bit geographically with being so far east, but still in the Central region, but you have got to give Cole more chances to win against top level guys.

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