NCAA Regional Preview – CMU Region

Now that the NCAA Draw is out, I want to be the first one to get out a regional preview for y’all. Given that one of my #1 seeds starts on a Thursday due to some scheduling anomalies in their region, I think I might be able to do it! Thank you to everyone who has followed the blog this year.  You guys made Monday really freaking fun with all the live questions coming in and all the interaction we got via twitter.  People really love those draws and we banked over 11K views on the day, which is the most in history! I think that goes to show how far DIII Tennis has come and the amount of interaction we have year over year.  It’s been a wild ride and I am sad that it is closing to an end.  Anyways, my first regional preview will be the one that it looks like a majority of voters are looking forward to – the CMU Region.  CMU is the #4 seed overall after what has been a really solid year for them and they were “rewarded” with Mary Washington as their #2 seed.  However, it’s another team that might have them worried.

The Competitors

#1 Seed Carnegie Mellon (host)

#2 Seed Mary Washington

#3 Seed Johns Hopkins

#4 Seed Yeshiva

#5 Seed Goucher

#6 Seed Gwynedd-Mercy

The Favorite

Carnegie Mellon Tartans – With the #1 seed and the host moniker, CMU has to be the favorite in this region.  They are ranked #5 in the country and were able to parlay that into a #5 overall seed in the tournament.  My goal here is to simply go through this regional, so I will avoid making any assumptions for future rounds outside of the Sweet 16.  CMU has had an overall all-around year in terms of lineup strengths.  They came out at Indoors with strong doubles, which was extremely surprising.  They took 2-1 leads on Case, Emory, and Pomona during that tournament.  As they moved throughout the season, it looked like their doubles got a bit weaker but their singles got much stronger.  They have an absolute boom or bust player at #1 in Abhishek Alla.  Their strong spots are at #2, #3, and #4 singles where they feature two strong freshmen (Levine, Downing) and an experienced junior in Kenny Zheng.

How to Beat ‘Em – A doubles lead is almost a must against the Tartans if you aren’t one of the top 8 teams in the nation.  The Tartans simply have too much talent and singles prowess to be beaten 4 out of 6 spots by an underdog.  Every single one of the CMU doubles teams play close matches, so that leaves them vulnerable to deficits even if they play well across the board.  After doubles, it’s really important to take CMU out at the bottom of the lineup, particularly #5 and #6 singles.  They have Arora and Wadwani down there and neither have been too consistent this year.  Wadwani has dealt with a ton of injuries it seems and Arora is taking his lumps as a freshman.  He does catch fire at times, so you really have to be on your game.  Formula is to take the doubles lead and take two spots at the bottom 4-6.  Then, you have a good shot of taking at least one match against the #1-3 players.

First Round Previews

Mary Washington vs. Hopkins

This is going to be the Round of 32 match that most people are watching other than maybe MIT vs. Stevens.  The last time these two played, Mary Wash edged Hopkins 5-4.  Boxscore is here:

http://www.itatennis.com/ResultsAndRankings/LatestResults.htm

UMW won on the back of a 2-1 doubles lead, but Hopkins has changed their lineup since then.  Hopkins has moved Walsh/Garcia up to #2 doubles and combined a team of Perez/Thygesen at #3 doubles.  That third doubles team could change too considering they just came off a loss against Swarthmore.  Buxbaum/Dubin are playing much, much better at #1 doubles now, and that match against Griffin and Miles is going to be a swing match and a potential decider.  I like UMW at #3 doubles with the Hopkins switch, but now I like Hopkins at #2 doubles.  I think whoever takes the doubles lead wins this match.

In singles, I expect Hopkins to go with the Buxbaum/Dubin/Garcia/Perez/Kang/Walsh singles lineup, which seems to be their most effective.  Buxbaum hasn’t been playing at his usual MVP level this season, causing me to stop calling him by the nickname that I gave him almost two years ago.  That match against Griffin at #1 singles is going to be a big one.  Hopkins has the advantage at #3 and #4 with Garcia and Perez playing well, but I think UMW might have the advantage at #2, #5, and #6.  You can see why this may come down to the last match.  Both of these teams had slow starts to the year and some lineup mixing before they got to the NCAA Tournament.  Both teams have heated up as of late and are playing in a region that they could challenge the top seed in.  At the end of the day, I’m going with the hot hand of Hopkins, 5-4.

Yeshiva vs. Goucher

The beauty of the NCAA is that we almost have to preview these lower seeded matches even if we barely know anything about the teams.  One thing I do know, however, is that YESHIVA is in my region.  I personally love Yeshiva.  If you all remember from the blog last year, the Yeshiva Coach aka “tennisjon” spent much of his time on this blog trumpeting his team and all the smaller schools out there.  Well, now I get to watch said team compete against one of my best! Maybe, actually.  Yeshiva has to first get through Goucher, who is a new addition to this year’s field.  Goucher has been on a roll lately and steamrolled through their conference tournament to get here.  Yeshiva basically has done the same.  Unfortunately, neither team has played a conference opponent, leaving this up to guesswork.

With some of the research I’ve done, these teams are extremely equal, but in different ways.  Strange, right? Goucher is the more balanced team, with guys throughout the lineup that are probably adequately placed. Yeshiva has two stud guys at the top of the lineup that TennisJon loves to tout.  That is their strength.  So, which team wins?  Yeshiva has the higher Power6 Score on UTR (54 vs 53).  Yeshiva also has the studs in their lineup to almost guarantee them wins at the top of the lineup.  I expect Yeshiva to win at #1 doubles and #1 and #2 singles.  That means they only need two more points from the rest of their lineup.  With the variability that happens at these skill levels, I have to go with the Maccabees.

Sweet 16 Matchup

Carnegie vs. Mary Wash/Hopkins

This does not call for a match by match preview because I simply don’t know who will be in the Sweet 16.  I know it won’t be Yeshiva or Goucher, but it could be either of the two other teams.  CMU has taken out both of these teams this year but they are probably hoping that it isn’t Hopkins that rolls into Pittsburgh on Saturday afternoon.  What I’m going to do here is give you the two scenarios and my thoughts on each matchup.

If CMU plays Mary Washington….

CMU is rejoicing.  Mary Washington has not beaten a top 10 opponent in so long that this could be more of a guarantee than people think.  CMU is the more talented team top to bottom and honestly I think they have improved more than UMW throughout the season as well with their hungry freshmen.  UMW can only hope on a doubles sweep in this one to win it, which they can do, but it is fairly unlikely because of the evenness of CMU’s doubles teams.  Mary Washington could take a doubles lead in this one for sure, but I doubt they will sweep.  From there, they are at a disadvantage at basically every spot except maybe #5 and #6 singles.  Now, you can see why they need that doubles sweep.  When these two teams last played, CMU won every singles spot except #5.  I expect something of the same nature this time around if it happens.

If CMU plays Hopkins…

Things could get super interesting.  If this does happen, I may get you a microwave preview on Friday night depending on how excited I am for the match.  Hopkins has been pretty lights out recently and they just spanked a tough team in Swarthmore by the score of 5-1.  Let’s remember that was at Swarthmore, as well.  Last year, Hopkins was so mediocre throughout the season that everyone kind of counted them out against Kenyon in the Sweet 16, except for a few people.  I thought Kenyon was going to win but it would be closer than normal.  Well, Hopkins went out there and put on a great display of pressure tennis and took the match.  They have the opportunity to do so again this year.

CMU, on the other hand, has failed time and time again to make the Elite 8 despite having immense talent and great seasons.  That might be attributed to bad luck or bad draws, but either way it has happened.  I think it’s a great thing that they have freshmen who don’t feel the burden of those old losses on their shoulders.  I think these freshmen are here to play and they showed that at UAAs.  NCAAs is a bit of a different beast, though, and the seniors on this team will have to send a message to the rest of the CMU crew that they’re here to win it.  My gut tells me that the Tartans would pull out a match like this on their own courts (assuming outdoors) but my god, this could be a really interesting regional final.  I’d love to see Alla vs Buxbaum as the last match in maybe the tenth battle between the two.  But, I do not always get my wishes.

If I had to pick right now, I’d pick CMU over Hopkins 5-3, with wins at #1 and #3 doubles, and wins at #1, #3, and #4 singles with a lead at #2 singles as well.

Well, it’s late and I need to do more research on my bracket because I always seem to suck at them despite spending multiple hours writing on this site.  Tell me how that works.  Hope you all enjoyed! ASouth, OUT.