NCAA Regional Preview: Case Western Region

It’s tournament time and that is an exciting thing for the blog. We are closing in on 2 million views to the site which is absolutely nuts. So we have to give a shout out to all the supporters (and haters) that take the time to read our thoughts and actively participate. It is you all who make this blog what it is. Otherwise it would be just a bunch of has beens (or never was like me) talking through text group chat. We also do that. Anyways, it’s my job to preview one of the NCAA regions and I was very happy that I got the Case Western region because 1) I campaigned for them to get in and 2) it is one of the regions that could provide some drama. I hope to highlight every team and then do a projected match by match at the end if all goes chalk.

The Qualifiers

Franciscan: At 11-9 and receiving their bid to nationals by winning the Allegheny Mountain Collegiate Conference (AMCC). I am not going to sit here and pretend that I know a lot about that conference, but what I can do is congratulate the Barons. This is their 4th straight appearance in the tournament and 5th in the last 6 years which is nothing to ignore. I cannot say if they have won a round in the past, but they are going to get their chance this time around. The Barons will play Grove City whom I will preview next. The two matched up in the fall of this year and Franciscan was edged 5-4. So this rematch will be something I am sure they are looking forward to.

Grove City: Well Grove City played 8 matches in the fall and only won one of them which would make me have cause to pause. But the one win came against Franciscan so that rematch could make or break someone’s bracket! Grove City won the Presidents’ Athletic Conference (PAC) and was actually 8-1 this spring only falling to Allegheny. My biggest concern for Grove City moving forward is they really haven’t been in a close match since September. Allegheny beat them 9-0 and the rest of their matches were 9-0 or 8-1 in their favor. Hopefully the boys can find the magic and take down Franciscan once again. Congrats on the bid!

Messiah: Without doing any research, I can tell you two things about Messiah. They have powerhouse soccer and wrestling programs! That doesn’t say much about tennis, but hey knowledge is power right? Messiah won the Middle Atlantic Conference (MAC) for their Pool A bid. I got excited thinking that Messiah might be decent after seeing their 7-2 loss to Oglethorpe, but quickly realized Oglethorpe played the B team in singles. Overall Messiah should enjoy their experience at nationals and take it all in. I am a Pool A supporter and always will be and teams like Messiah deserve their opportunity to be a part of this tournament.

The Spoiler

Kalamazoo: The hornets are a staple in the NCAA tournament after winning the MIAA for the 2,436 time. But really, the number is at 78 straight or something ridiculous like that. While I don’t think they will upset Kenyon in the second round, they do have the potential to do so. I think the biggest headline of that match will be #2 in the region Brandon Metzler taking on #1 in the region Sam Geier. I am most interested in that match to see how far I will choose either to go in the individual tournament. If Kzoo wants to beat Kenyon, they will need two of the three doubles which is always possible. Metzler needs to win his match and then sneak two others somewhere else. Kzoo was swept by Gustavus in doubles so a lead is unlikely, but you never know. The good news for this program is they seem to be back on the rise a bit although it is slow. Kzoo used to be a top 5 program in the nation and while I don’t think they will ever return to that, they sure could make it into the top 30 next season. It would be nice to see them a bit more relevant in the years to come.

The Main Event

There are quite a few story lines to this match-up so as long as Kzoo doesn’t mess it all up, I am excited to see this match play out. You’ve got a Kenyon squad who has gotten better as the season progresses and a Case squad who is primed to be upset (only beat Brandeis 5-4 after they swept doubles) or upset a top seed (Emory won’t take them lightly). This also is a match that should have been played as the 5th place match at Stag Hen, but weather delays forced Case to leave early to catch their plane back home. Who knows how hard either team tried to reschedule that match, but the good news is, it’s happening now on an even bigger stage. Finally, you have Kenyon alumnus Wade Heerboth as an assistant coach at Case Western. The good news for him is that someone he supports will win and head to the Elite Eight. The bad news is someone will also be very disappointed. Here is my match by match analysis:

1 Doubles: Tristan Kaye/Sam Geier vs. Chris Krimbill/Louis Stuerke: Kenyon needs this match to get the upset, but I don’t think they will get it. Both teams are individual qualifiers and deservedly so. However, I don’t think there are many teams if any in the nation that I would pick as favorites over the Case duo. They have been playing together too long and have had way too much success. Case wins 8-5

2 Doubles: Michael Liu/Rob Turlington vs. James Fojtasek/Phil Gruber: I campaigned Fojtasek and Gruber to move to the 2 spot as they were dominating at #3. They still have been pretty dominant after moving up. I love Turlington as a doubles player and Liu has proven that he has the goods to play against big time opponents, but I have to lean on Case coming out firing on all cylinders on this one. Fojtasek is a fiery player and might overtake this match. Case wins 8-6

3 Doubles: Mike Roberts/Nicholas Paolucci vs. David Zakhodin/John Benedetto: This is a must win for Kenyon and the only spot where I would favor them, but just slightly. The Case duo was formed mid-season and was over matched playing at 2. Now that they have been moved down, the results have come, but I am going to pick Kenyon to pick up this win in a very closely contested match. Kenyon wins 9-8(6)

1 Singles: Sam Geier vs. Chris Krimbill: Sadly I am not as excited about this match as I should be. The reason is because I highly doubt that it will actually be finished since these matches are only played to decision. If I were to pick a favorite, I would likely choose Krimbill. Both players have been ridiculously good this season, but Geier will have played Metzler the day before. A well rested Krimbill is not a fun opponent. Unfinished

2 Singles: Mike Liu vs. James Fojtasek: At the beginning of the year, I questioned whether Mike Liu should be playing this high in the lineup. He has proven worthy this season, but Fojtasek is a big time stud. I expect him to frustrate Liu and win it in straights. Case wins 6-4, 6-3

3 Singles: Rob Turlington vs. Robert Stroup: I can’t put much faith into Stroup because he literally is the biggest boom or bust guy in the region and potentially in the country. He has an early win over Kratky at Indoors that was big, but hasn’t had any big wins since to my recollection. Turlington is a steady player and I think that will be enough to put him over the edge against Stroup. Kenyon wins 7-5, 6-2

4 Singles: Nicholas Paolucci vs Louis Stuerke: Kenyon’s site is terrible to see individual match results unless you click on every single box score, but Paolucci is a lot like Stroup in that he has a few great wins, but also has a few absolute drubbing losses. Stuerke is an experience senior that I always seem to overlook. I can’t go against the experience in such a big match. Case wins 6-4, 6-4

5 Singles: Mike Roberts vs. Kevin Dong: I have always been a fan of Roberts and he has been playing great tennis as of late. Dong sometimes is hit or miss so he could definitely win this, but I am leaning towards Roberts in a relative route. Kenyon wins 6-2, 6-2

6 Singles: Max Smith vs. Josh Dughi: Dughi might be on the list of top 5 players I would never want to play just because of his crazy consistency. I am not really all that familiar with Max Smith, but my head and my heart say Dughi wins this one without much of a sweat. Case wins 6-3, 6-1

So there you have it. I have this match ended 5-3 in favor of Case Western. They have the ability to sweep doubles as well so Kenyon has to avoid that to give them a shot. The Lords could very well take the top doubles spot too so if they lead 2-1 after doubles, things will get real interesting really quick. Hoping for an epic match!