Happy NCAA Tournament, boys and girls. The big dance kicked off with a very tight 5-2 win from Goucher over Yeshiva, knocking about 3/4 of the brackets (mine included) from the ranks of perfection. I’ve decided to forget about that stupid bracket challenge, by simply turning my attention to a different part of the bracket. Tonight I have the Bowdoin region to preview, which is stacked with NE talent. Bowdoin, MIT, and Stevens are all very talented, and while the Polar Bears are certainly the favorites to advance to the quarterfinals, I think the #2 and #3 seeds have a better chance here than in the majority of regions. Be sure to keep checking back over the next 24 hours as we finish up our NCAA Regional preview series! Also, if you think you missed any coverage, or just want to read it again, click the 2016 NCAA Tournament Coverage tab at the top left of the home site (or just click here).
Bowdoin
Odds of making the quarterfinals: 90%
Power 6 Rating (Or team UTR): 73
How they got here: The Polar Bears earned the top overall Pool-C selection to NCAAs after falling in the finals of the NESCAC conference tournament to Middlebury.
Why they’ll win: In a word, depth. Bowdoin is simply much stronger at the lower positions than any other team in this draw. While MIT is strong in the middle, and Stevens is strong at the top, Bowdoin is vastly better than those two teams because of the overall strength of their lineup. They can sustain a loss to Heinrich, or a losses to Barr and Ko, because their other guys will usually make up for it. Plus, their doubles have improved, possibly more than any other team in the country. It’s flown non-stop from liability to a strength, with no lay-over in the Middle Groundville. They are heavy favorites for a reason this weekend, and I like them to advance to the quarterfinals and possibly further.
How they can be beaten: Although Bowdoin is quite strong at all six spots, they have not been overly dominant at any spot except for #6 (where Urken is still undefeated). They will be favored at every spot except #3/#4 against MIT, and every spot except #1 against Stevens, so the underdogs still have a ways to go, but if Bowdoin somehow goes down after doubles (like they did against Midd last weekend), then you never know.
Player to watch: Luke Tercek, sophomore. Tercek is one of the most improved players this year, but has struggled somewhat of late. He lost to Glickman, was down a set against Zykov, and lost to Farrell in his last three matches. Obviously those are all good players, but those results are not consistent with Tercek’s play from March and April. Bowdoin is very strong at all six spots this year, but all six guys (yes, even Urken) are beatable. Whoever Bowdoin gets in the sweet-16 will be a talented team. No matter if it’s MIT or Stevens, Tercek will have a tough match (Cauneac or Heinrich), and it’d be a great sign for Bowdoin if he wins that match, because the potential team, and #1 competition would only get tougher from there (Alla, Mosetick/Krimbill, Butts/Farrell).
MIT
Odds of making the quarterfinals: 5%
Power 6 Rating (Or team UTR): 68
How they got here: Earned the first ever NEWMAC Pool-A bid, as the conference was just granted Pool-A citizenship this year, with their 18th straight NEWMAC championship!
Why they’ll win: They could be a problem. I know, but they are so damn talented. That about sums up MIT’s season. Up and down like they were on some emotional…ride. However the up-swing is in full effect, as the Engineers took down Tufts and crushed Babson to earn their 18th straight conference championship. Their top-4 are really good, and they are starting to play like it. How many other teams can boast a 5-star at #4 singles?
How they can be beaten: MIT’s good comes hand in hand with the bad, because of the streakiness of the team. Their doubles has been generally good this year, and I think the smart money is that they should take #2 dubs over Stevens, but #3 is a toss up. Similarly, they should be favored in the middle of the lineup, but the bottom of MIT’s lineup (namely Gea and Garcia) has had a couple issues. Their match with Stevens could very well come down to those spots in a pressure situation. Is MIT finally ready to come up with a clutch win when it matters most?
Player to watch: Tyler Barr, freshman. Barr is undefeated against DIII competition this year, and has wins against Amherst, Bates, Brandeis, and Tufts. If MIT makes the Sweet-16 he would certainly get his toughest test of the year in Luke Trinka, but don’t overlook either Drake or Polk, Barr’s round of 32 matchup, both of whom are very capable players. MIT will need Barr to continue to roll through singles, as they should be underdogs at #5 and #6 against both Stevens and Bowdoin (if they get there).
Stevens
Odds of making the quarterfinals: 4%
Power 6 Rating (Or team UTR): 65
How they got here: Champions of the Empire 8 for the 7th straight year!
Why they’ll win: Stevens has gone from the darling of the comments section “you never pay attention to the Ducks” to whatever the opposite of a darling is “Stevens is overrated/The Blog loves Stevens.” Well, regardless of how you feel about the Ducks, they come into NCAAs with a chip on their shoulder and a point to prove. They were hovering around #20 in the country all year, and then got jumped by MIT due to an end of the season win over Tufts. They are led by a Matt Heinrich and Ben Foran, two seniors who have been there before, and I’ve been told that they “really want to win this one,” Cotton. They are solid through their whole lineup, and know how to win a last-man-on type of match (see Swarthmore earlier this year). As much flak as we give him for being the resident pest (don’t get D3AS started), Heinrich is legit and out to prove it to the world. On their best day, this is a team that can beat MIT, and might even be able to put a scare into Bowdoin.
How they can be beaten: Ok, that last paragraph may have seemed like pontificating, and Stevens really can be a tough out, but the truth is that other than at #1 singles and doubles, I don’t know where I’d bet on them against a team like MIT. Don’t get me wrong, Drake, Polk, Henry, Feldman, Persson, they’re all very capable players, who have certainly improved over their time at Stevens, but none of them will be favored against MIT. They won’t all be underdogs either, but it takes some serious stones to win a toss-up match in the tournament, and Stevens is going to have to win the majority of them in order to beat MIT. I think the hypothetical match between Stevens and MIT is one of the toughest to predict in the whole tournament, and I think it could easily go the distance.
Player to watch: Ben Foran, senior. Most people would expect this to be Heinrich, but we know what we’re going to get from Matt. Foran is the other starting senior in the lineup, and he’s had a terrific singles year. Varying mainly between #3 and #4, Foran has only lost to Glickman (who is now Tufts’ #1) while at those spots. He has wins over seven ranked teams, including a top-10 win in PP, but he’ll have his hands full with Sean Ko (and Jerry Jiang if they get there). Foran’s value also comes from his doubles partnership with Heinrich and that duo’s success. The team’s two losses came to Skid and Bowdoin, the two highest ranked teams in the country. They should be favored against MIT, and will be counted on if the Ducks are going to win that match. The Stevens pair only lost 8-6 to Bowdoin earlier this year, and if Stevens is somehow going to upset the Polar Bears (if they get there), #1 dubs is a must win. Let’s hope he’s rockin’ the facial hair this weekend, and the Ducks will take all the luck they can get.
Colby Sawyer/Nichols/Southern Maine
Odds of making the quarterfinals: <1%
Power 6 Rating (Or team UTR): 53/53/46
How they got here: All three teams are Pool-A bids. Colby Sawyer won the North Atlantic Conference (NAC)/North Eastern Athletic Conference (NEAC) crossover championship (4th straight year). Nichols won the Commonwealth Coast Conference (5th straight year), and Souther Maine won the Little East Conference (3rd straight year).
How this affects your bracket selection: All three of these schools have made the NCAA tourney for at least three years in a row, but none of them have ever advanced past the second round. Colby Sawyer and Nichols are both rated as 53’s via UTR’s Power 6 rating, so that should be an incredibly tight match. I went with Colby Sawyer, as the Chargers got their first win over the Bison since 2009 earlier this year in a 6-3 decision, but I struggled while doing so. Nichols has been playing better recently, I believe they are in the midst of a 10 match winning streak, and they have won 5 of the past 6 against Colby Sawyer. It’s going to be close, but seeing as I already lost Yeshiva over Goucher, who am I to give any advice?
Matchup to watch: #1 singles. Cass McCann (Colby-Sawyer) vs #1 Blake Norton (Nichols). McCann beat Norton in three sets the last time these two teams played, and it was the only singles match to go the distance. If Nichols is going to exact some revenge, the Bison are going to take #1 singles.