NCAA Quarterfinal Preview: Johns Hopkins vs #4 Bowdoin

NCAA Quarterfinal Preview: Johns Hopkins vs #4 Bowdoin

AS: I’ve started to incorporate the tank and tree formula into my life recently.  I wake up at 8:55 AM to get to work at 9AM and so far it has (not) really worked out for me. For some people, it works a bit better – I’m talking about the Johns Hopkins Blue Jays.  They’ve been doing this two years running and now have reached another surprising Elite 8.  Last year, they had to face the eventual champion CMS in the quarterfinals.  This year is a bit easier.  However, that doesn’t mean it’s an easy task.  Bowdoin has had a stellar year and probably their best year in program history.  They’ve taken out the aforementioned CMS on their home courts and finished 2nd in the NESCAC tournament.  These are some Bears to be reckoned with.  One of these teams is going to make its first ever Final Four which is pretty damn exciting. I’m hoping for another edition of ASouth dominance, but this one is going to be a close one…. maybe.

Before I get into the match by match preview, I would encourage all of you to keep checking back to the site for your other previews, as well as the blogger reveal that will happen on Sunday at 7PM ET.  We will be revealing one of your most famous bloggers to the public so he can go and tell his next job that he’s been a blogger for years now. It’s important stuff, people.  Set your alarms because things are about to happen.  Okay, Hopkins/Bowdoin is what you’re asking for.  Off we go.  Or, NE will butt in with his silly introductions about how he’s awesome or something.

NE: I don’t know about awesome, I’ll settle for kind of OK. I am going to pat myself on the back, because I predicted Bowdoin’s quarterfinal appearance way back in my season preview. Just go ahead and disregard the fact that I also had Amherst making the quarters. Before examining the matchups, I thought I was going to tell you that this quarterfinal is practically dripping with drama, but after going match by match, I’m not so sure this one will go the distance…

#1 Dubs: Trinka/Tercek (Bowdoin) vs. Buxbaum/Dubin (Hopkins) –

AS: The thing about all these doubles matches is that they seem to be against teams that are pretty close.  The team of Buxbaum/Dubin hasn’t been amazing this year, but they’ve come on as of late and have two impressive wins over Levine/Arora (CMU), albeit indoors.  The weather in K-Zoo is looking pretty damn sunny for the quarterfinals, so we’re gonna be seeing some outdoor tennis.  Advantage Trinka/Tercek.  However, I think Hopkins needs this match because I don’t like them at the other two.  Buxbaum and Dubin know this and they grit out a win because that’s what the MVP does.  Hopkins, 9-7

NE: I think this is a big match for both teams. If Bowdoin takes a 2-1 doubles lead, this match is more than likely going to end after about another 90 minutes. Hopkins needs #1 doubles, because we know it’s a spot where they can win. However, not enough credit has been given to Bowdoin’s amazing doubles turnaround this year. Trinka/Tercek are at the front of that, having been ranked #1 in the region all year. This could also be a big confidence booster for Tercek. I like the Polar Bears in a close match. Bowdoin, 8-6.

#2 Dubs: Jiang/Wolfe (Bowdoin) vs. Garcia/Walsh (Hopkins) –

AS: The saving grace of this Hopkins #2 team is that they have a senior and a decorated doubles player in the lineup.  That makes for an extremely solid #2 team that they may need to upset Jiang/Wolfe if they want to get the win.  If Hopkins is to win this match, they take the doubles lead with a win here at this swing spot.  There have been times when Bowdoin’s doubles has been shaky at random times, the Jays are hoping that Monday is that time.  I really, really want to go with Garcia and Walsh here especially since Walsh probably won’t play singles due to some Hopkins lineup problems with the NCAA (shhhh).  Yolo time, I’m going with Hopkins 9-8 (6).

NE: Again, this looks like a spot that Hopkins will need to win if they are going to pull off another upset. Both Garcia and Walsh have starred at #1 doubles at times during their careers, and on paper this is a good team. They’re also coming in hot, while the Bowdoin #2 team has split their past four matches. The Jays get a doubles point, and a little momentum. Hopkins, 9-7.

#3 Dubs: Savage/Roddy (Bowdoin) vs. Perez/Thygesen (Hopkins) –

AS: Here’s the one doubles spot I don’t have much faith in for the Jays.  Savage/Roddy are just a way too solid team for the Polar Bears to lose this one.  I am pretty certain that Bowdoin comes out with this one, but stranger things have happened.  Perez/Thygesen were able to take out a senior team in Alla/Kumar last round, but the fact of the matter is this Bowdoin team plays better fundamental doubles.  Bowdoin, 8-4.

NE: I agree with AS. This is the doubles match with the longest odds, and Bowdoin should be a favorite. Savage and Roddy have played very well all year, and everytime Savage steps out onto the court might be his last time. I’m sure the senior is well aware of that fact. Bowdoin, 8-3.

#1 Singles: Tercek (Bowdoin) vs. Buxbaum (Hopkins) –

AS: MVP! MVP! MVP! One of my favorite players in the nation has rounded into form and is on his “I didn’t make NCAAs” revenge tour.  He’s now beaten Alla twice and now he has a couple weeks of practice (I hope) to keep the momentum going in his game. I don’t go against guys that are feeling it, especially when it comes to NCAAs.  Plus, Tercek just got trounced 6-1 6-1 by Alex Cauneac of MIT.  Dude is a good player, but this is Buxbaum’s third Elite 8.  Give it to him.  Hopkins, 6-4, 6-2.

NE: This could be the only singles spot where I favor Hopkins. Buxy has been playing his best tennis of late, while Tercek has been on the other end of the spectrum. If my predictions are close, then we’ll see if this match finishes, but I’m certainly giving the edge to AS’ MVP. Hopkins, 6-3, 6-1.

#2 Singles: Wolfe (Bowdoin) vs. Dubin (Hopkins) –

AS: Downhill from here for the Jays.  Bowdoin’s 4-6 are nasty so they better start winning some top matches if they are going to win this one.  Dubin is so much different indoors than outdoors and this is going to be a tough matchup for him.  Wolfe has been rock solid all year and Dubin has really struggled with his outdoors play.  I think Wolfe grinds him down and causes Dubin to get inconsistent.  Bowdoin 6-3, 6-2.

NE: Wolfe started the year with 10 straight wins, but since has been a little more up and down. Both he and Dubin play a grinding style of game, so this is a match that will likely only play to completion if the match is hanging in the balance. Edge definitely skews towards Wolfe, but I’m don’t think it will be as easy as D3AS believes. Bowdoin leads, 7-5, 3-1.

#3 Singles: Trinka (Bowdoin) vs. Garcia (Hopkins) –

AS: Garcia is the lone senior captain in the Hopkins starting lineup and he will be relied upon to come up with some big wins as he did in their match against CMU.  Playing against Trinka is a bit tougher than playing against Chaz Downing, considering Trinka’s experience.  I think Garcia can up his game but his baseline game isn’t going to match up well against the former #1 singles player.  This could be a quick one, but Garcia will fight.  Bowdoin leads 7-6, 3-4

NE: Probably the best matchup of the day, two All-American seniors going at it. Unfortunately, this will be the last match for one of them, but my guess is that neither win will be able to pull off a W here. Slight edge to Trinka, but both guys are more than capable. Bowdoin leads, 6-4, 2-3.

#4 Singles: Jiang (Bowdoin) vs. Perez (Hopkins) –

AS: Contrary to what NE believes, I don’t believe this is going to be a close match.  I don’t really have that much faith in Perez.  While he took a set off Zheng, Zheng is more of a #5 player at this point in his career.  Perez hasn’t really surprised me at all this year and has been pretty average.  Jiang will get that outdoors boost and unless he gets some freshman jitters, he has the advantage in this one.  Bowdoin, 6-4, 6-4.

NE: Nice matchup here as we get two younger players (a freshman and a sophomore) with big game potential. Jiang’s results have been better this year, but Perez had split sets with Zheng (CMU) last week which was very impressive. I think Jiang will be helped if this match is played outdoors, and while I like the freshman to win, it also might not get to finish. Bowdoin, 6-4, 6-3.

#5 Singles: Roddy (Bowdoin) vs. Thygesen (Hopkins) –

AS: A clear mismatch here as I believe Hopkins planned on pulling Thygesen from the lineup every time out.  Why they didn’t just put Emerson Walsh in the lineup to begin with is anyone’s guess, but it’s going to come back to bite them against Bowdoin.  Thygesen simply isn’t experienced enough to beat a player like Roddy, who has wins over pretty much everyone in the nation at #5 singles.  Roddy is the clear favorite.  Bowdoin, 6-2, 6-3.

NE: Roddy is 14-1 when not across the net from Hamid Derbani (Midd), and has straight set wins over guys like Raghavan (Williams), Fife (Amherst), Roberts (Wesleyan), and Yeh (CMS). Given that Thygesen has far more L’s than W’s on his W-L record this year, Roddy should be the favorite. However, Scotty played most of the year at #3 and #4, so don’t jump to conclusions too quickly here. Bowdoin, 7-5, 6-2.

#6 Singles: Urken (Bowdoin) vs. Kang (Hopkins) –

AS: Woof. This should be Emerson Walsh playing here.  Kang lost last week to Yuvraj Kumar of CMU, who has played maybe 4 singles matches this year (and actually won a lot of them but still) and Kang simply isn’t a big game player in my book.  Maybe he will turn into one eventually, but Urken hasn’t lost all year and Kang isn’t the man to do it.  I think this one will be over quickly.  Bowdoin, 6-1, 6-1.

NE: Urken has not lost all year. Seriously, the dude is 18-0 this year at anywhere between #4 and #6. Kang is a fine player, but Urken is the heavy favorite here. Bowdoin, 6-3, 6-2.

AS: 5-3 Bowdoin, with the potential swing matches being #1 and #3 doubles, as well as #2 and #3 singles.  Hopkins basically needs a 2-1 lead and a sweep of the top 3, or a sweep of doubles and two of the top 3.  They didn’t win a match 4-6 against CMU last week and Bowdoin has a better bottom of the lineup.

NE: 5-2 Bowdoin, and I’m leaning more towards a rout than a Hop upset.