NCAA Quarterfinal Preview: No. 2 Middlebury vs Gustavus Adolphus
Happy Saturday, boys and girls. Welcome to the final NCAA QF preview. RegionalNEC and I are going to take a look at the GAC/Midd matchup, and hopefully what will be the fourth of four NE teams advancing to the semifinals. You must be tiring of reading my stuff by now as I’ve been “lucky” enough to be a part of all four QF previews. Don’t worry, after today we will have a couple types of different QF previews. One from both the Guru (likely something historical) and one from D3AS (likely something full of bluster and little substance). If you missed the other QF previews, Emory vs. Williams, Bowdoin vs. Wash U and CMS vs. Wesleyan are all up on the site. One severely underplayed storyline before we get to the tennis. THE DERBANI BROS ARE REUNITING AGAIN! The Derbani brothers grew up in Morocco, went to college ½ way around the world in different parts of the country and are now playing each other in the NCAA QF. That’s pretty freakin cool. Also, if you missed it, our own AVZ continued his Podcast series with an interview of GAC Head Coach Tommy Valentini.
http://www.division3tennis.com/vzv-podcast-tommy-valentini-gustavus/
MIDDLEBURY
Power 6: 76.60. Lubomir Cuba (13.40), Will de Quant (13.19), Hamid Derbani (12.77), Kyle Schlanger (12.74), Timo van der Geest (12.21), Allen Jackson (12.29).
Route to the Quarterfinals: Midd was the best team in the country during the regular season, notching wins over CMS, Emory and Bowdoin. The were the No. 2 seed at NESCACs due to their head-to-head loss to Wesleyan, made the finals by beating the hometown Ephs in the semis, but fell to Bowdoin in the NESCAC finals. Midd earned the top overall Pool-C bid, and the number two overall seed in the bracket. The Panthers beat Baruch 5-0 in their round of 32 match, and then rolled past Skidmore 5-1 to earn their fifth consecutive quarterfinal appearance.
Why they’ll win: To put it simply, Midd will be favored at every single singles spot. Yes, #1 should be a battle and you could get away with calling it a toss up, but Midd’s depth will certainly be favored. GAC’s strengths are their doubles and the top of their lineup, which, unfortunately for the Gusties, are also strengths of Midd. Even with a 2-1 doubles lead, GAC will have to get pretty lucky to take all of the top three spots. In addition, GAC does not have the (somewhat large) advantage of playing in front of their home crowd this time.
Why they won’t: When you are playing a team who plays good doubles, anything can happen. Yes, Midd plays good doubles as well, but the proset is a fickle mistress, and she has been known to spurn even her best of friends from time to time. We’ve seen the mettle from GAC’s top three, and we know they are capable of shocking the DIII landscape. Plus, they have the always powerful “nobody believes in us” chip on their shoulder. The Gusties already have the biggest NCAA regional upset we’ve seen in a very long time, but they still have the potential to become world beaters.
X-Factor: Timo van der Geest. TVG plays #3 dubs with Peter Martin, and the duo have been pretty good since their mid-April debut. However, the Gusties play good dubs and this is the most vulnerable doubles spot for the Panthers. If Midd takes #3 doubles, they should be in good shape moving into singles play. In singles, the Flying Dutchman plays #5 where he has struggled somewhat of late. He is only 6-10 against top-25 teams this year. However, some of those six wins include Max Macey (CMS) and Mckenna Fujitani (Trinity Tx), two of the best #5’s out there, so we know that Timo can ball. He will be favored against Chase Johnson, as GAC’s depth is not its strength, and Midd will be looking for TVG to get at least one point on Monday.
GAC
Power 6: 71.35. Mohanad Alhouni (13.13), Zach Ekstein (11.95), Patrick Whaling (11.83), Tommy Entwistle (11.32), Chase Johnson (11.64), Yassine Derbani (11.48).
Route to the Quarterfinals: The Gusties won the MIAC as they do every year for a Pool A berth, and began NCAAs as a host site and second seed. After a first round bye they took on UW-Whitewater, where they swept doubles and then clinched quickly with singles wins at 1 and 5. In the Sweet Sixteen, I’m sure you know the story by now, but Gustavus pulled off one of the most surprisingly upsets of the year, defeating Chicago in dramatic fashion. The doubles savvy Gusties got out to a 2-1 lead, and from there scrapped together singles wins at 1, 2, and 3, with the clincher coming at #2, where Zach Ekstein beat Erik Kerrigan 4-6, 7-6, 7-5.
Why they’ll win: There’s a couple reasons. First, Gustavus is always a threat in every doubles match, and as they proved last weekend, a lead after doubles can make a huge difference in pulling off an upset. Second, GAC just pulled off a massive upset. Thoughts of “Why not again?” will likely be permeating through this team, and the combination of being big underdogs once again while also having a deep sense of belief could be dangerous for Middlebury.
Why they won’t: While Chicago is a very strong, top 10 caliber team, Middlebury is a true national title contender and a step up in competition from the Maroons. As D3NE said, the Panthers have a huge edge in singles, which does put a lot of pressure on Gustavus for doubles. I often talk about the path to five points, and for GAC it’s a much narrower path than Middlebury. A lot will have to go right for the upset to happen, whereas Middlebury can afford to lose a match here or there that they might normally win. Overall, the main reason why GAC won’t win just comes down to a possibly insurmountable talent gap. (<—Bulletin Board Material!)
X-Factor: A doubles lead. It’s absolutely vital for Gustavus. If the Gusties don’t come out of it up at least 2-1, this one is going to be over quickly, as I have a hard time seeing where GAC finds four singles wins. If, however, Gustavus wins at least two matches, then we could have ourselves a more interesting finish, as Midd may start to feel the pressure and the Gusties will only start to believe even more than they are a team of destiny.
MATCH BY MATCH PREVIEW
#1 Doubles: Cuba/De Quant (Midd) vs. Alhouni/Whaling (GAC).
NE: As we’ve said about 100 times, GAC plays really good doubles, but when this Midd team is at its best, they might be the best team in the country. Plus, as RegNEC notes below, the GAC #1 team lost to the Midd #2 team when these two teams played earlier in the year. Advantage, Panthers. Midd, 8-4.
RegNEC: Alhouni/Whaling are a formidable #1 team, but they haven’t had a ton of really great wins this spring. Probably their best was over Lambeth/Tyer (Trinity TX), but that’s in addition to a number of losses including twice to Chicago, Southwestern, UT-Tyler, and also Midd’s #2 team of Derbani and Schlanger. On the other hand, Cuba/DeQuant are serious national title contenders. Middlebury 8-5
#2 Doubles: Derbani/Schlanger (Midd) vs. Entwistle/Johnson (GAC).
NE: This could be GAC’s strongest doubles spot, but unluckily for them Midd is probably still a bit stronger. You know the elder Derbani is going to come out firing to try and retain the family crown. Midd, 8-6.
RegNEC: This could be the doubles swing match. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this be the last one on with the score 1-1, making it huge not only for that second point but also for the momentum going into singles. At the end of the day though, I’m going with the more battle-tested team that’s been facing elite competition every weekend for the past month and a half. Middlebury 9-8(4).
#3 Doubles: Martin/Van der Geest (Midd) vs. Hagberg/Derbani (GAC).
NE: Same thing goes for Lil’ Derbani. I have full faith that he’ll come out swingin’. This is Midd’s weakest spot, and the only one of their teams that had to change during the year. GAC, 8-5.
RegNEC: Hagberg and Derbani beat Middlebury at third doubles when they played earlier this year, though that was the pairing of Van der Geest with Allen Jackson. I don’t think a different duo is going to change the result here, and GAC has overall been very solid at #3. Gustavus Adolphus 8-6.
#1 Singles: Lubo Cuba (Midd-sophomore) vs. Mohanad Alhouni (GAC-junior).
NE: This is a spot that GAC will probably need to win if they are going to pull the upset, but that will be no easy task. Both guys will almost certainly be top-8 seeds at NCAAs, so you could be looking at a possible quarterfinal (or beyond) matchup here. Cuba has been the best in the country this spring, so I’m not picking against him. Midd 7-5, 6-4.
RegNEC: This is a #1 matchup fitting of an NCAA quarterfinal, as both these guys could make runs in the singles tournament. Lubo hasn’t lost a match all spring, so it’s pretty hard to pick against him, which is why I’m not going to. Middlebury leads 4-6, 7-6(2), 2-1 unfinished
#2 Singles: William de Quant (Midd-junior) vs. Zach Ekstein (GAC-junior).
NE: I’m not sure I’ve ever been more impressed with somebody than I was with Zach Ekstein last weekend against Chicago. However, I think De Quant is about as mentally tough as they come and he has experience with this stage of NCAAs to boot. Midd, 6-4, 6-1.
RegNEC: Last week’s hero for the Gusties will have his work cut out for him against WDQ, and with wins over Morkovine (CMS), Jemison (Emory), Grodecki (Williams) twice, and Alhouni, I’m going with De Quant. Middlebury 3-6, 6-2, 6-1 (for the clinch).
#3 Singles: Hamid Derbani (Midd-senior) vs. Patrick Whaling (GAC-sophomore).
NE: RegNEC is right, that Derbani has the potential to be one of Midd’s more vulnerable guys. That being said, he also has the potential to be their best player. You get Good Derbani more often that his evil twin, but you’re never sure exactly which one you’re going to get. GAC leads, 2-6, 6-4, 3-2.
RegNEC: Whaling fell to Charlie Pei (Chicago) in three sets earlier this year, and then last weekend turned it around for a great 6-2, 6-4 win. He’s trending upwards, and while Derbani is a tough cookie, he’s battled injuries this year and may be one of Midd’s more vulnerable guys. Gustavus Adolphus 7-5, 6-4
#4 Singles: Kyle Schlanger (Midd-junior) vs. Tommy Entwistle (GAC-junior).
NE: Schlanger has had a fantastic year and I think this is spot where Midd is a big favorite on paper. Unlike some of the guys below him, Schlanger does have the important NCAA experience, and I don’t think he’ll be overwhelmed by the moment. Midd, 6-3, 6-2.
RegNEC: Lower in the lineup is where Middlebury will really show its talent advantage. Entwistle’s a nice player, but Schlanger will be focused for the occasion and should come out on top. Middlebury 6-2, 7-5
#5 Singles: Timo van der Geest (Midd-junior) vs. Chase Johnson (GAC-sophomore).
NE: I mentioned above that TVG is my X-Factor, and if he were to win twice I don’t really see how Midd could lose. Unfortunately, I don’t have him winning twice. Chase is a little up and down, but I see this match staying close. Midd leads, 7-5, 5-6.
RegNEC: My knowledge of Chase Johnson is admittedly limited, but looking at his results, one thing that popped out was that he beat Luke Tsai (Chicago) 2-6, 7-5, 13-11 last month, but then lost to him 6-1, 6-0 last weekend. Not sure what that means, but interesting nonetheless. Anyway, the all business van der Geest doesn’t give an inch, making him a very tough #5. Middlebury leads 6-3, 2-6, 4-1
#6 Singles: Allen Jackson (Midd-senior) vs. Yassine Derbani (GAC-Freshman).
NE: Lil’ Derbani against the 9th semester senior. Midd is certainly favored on paper here, but I want to see the legend Allen Jackson perform in the postseason before I fawn all over his extra experience. I think this one stays closer than people think. Midd leads, 6-4, 3-5.
RegNEC: Hamid’s little brother is 18-5 down at #6 this year, but fell 6-1, 6-3 to Alex Vanezis, Middlebury’s #7, earlier in the year. I think Middlebury’s #6, Allen Jackson, will win by a similar score. Middlebury 6-1, 6-3
OVERALL PREDICTION:
NE: Middlebury def. GAC 5-1. Even with a QF loss the Gusties remain the story of the tournament, until we crown a champ from this even field.
RegNEC: Middlebury wins 5-2, and while GAC puts up a valiant effort, the Panthers get through without ever having to worry too much.