NCAA QF Preview #2: No. 3 CMS vs No. 6 Wesleyan

2017 NCAA Quarterfinal Preview: No. 3 CMS vs No. 6 Wesleyan

Welcome, boys and girls, to the second of our four NCAA Quarterfinal previews. CMS and Wesleyan have both had great seasons, but they have done so in different ways. Everybody knows that CMS has struggled mightily in doubles this spring, but have managed to pull win after win after win out despite the deficits. We all expected the Stags to be here, and although they were not projected quite as highly as Bowdoin or Midd or Emory to start the year, a year without CMS as a top-5 team and title contender is hard to imagine. On the other side, you have the Wesleyan Cardinals, the newbies at the party. Much has been made of their season full of program firsts, but making it to the quarterfinals is above and beyond. It just goes to show that you can never truly discount the awesome potential of the #AVZBoost! These two teams met in the 1st round of the Stag Hen in mid-March, in what was Wesleyan’s first match of the year. Wes had a great chance to get the doubles sweep but couldn’t pull it off, and, as they are want to do, CMS came back to grit out the win. Now, with both teams mostly healthy (Wildman for CMS was out for the NCAA Regional), we are all expecting some fireworks in this NCAA Quarterfinal. D3West is here to tell you about CMS, while I get to delve a bit deeper into the Cards. Stay tuned this week for more NCAA Quarterfinal coverage.

CMS

Power 6: 77. 34 Niko Parodi (12.89), Glenn Hull (13.37), Daniel Morkovine (13.01), Max Macey (12.88), Daniel Park (12.43), Alex Brenner (12.76).

Route to the Quarterfinals: They had to go through the Texas duo at home, where they finally found some doubles mojo in a sweep over Trinity in the Sweet Sixteen

Why they’ll win: They will have either three or four seniors in the starting singles lineup (depending on Patrick Wildman’s health). These four seniors have been to the Elite Eight each of the past three seasons, a level of experience Wesleyan can only dream of. They also beat the Cards in their regular season matchup (at home).

Why they won’t: Their infamous doubles troubles this season. They may have swept Trinity in the Sweet Sixteen, but they’ve been swept four times this season. They’ve been down 1-2 many other times, including their two regular season losses to Middlebury and Emory. Also, their two losses came in rare matches away from Bisantz, which is where the Elite Eight conspicuously won’t be played.

X-Factor: Glenn Hull. The dude hasn’t lost a singles match this season, a streak which he’ll need to keep for the Stags to move on. He’s also switched partners about as frequently as Taylor Swift, but he and Jake Berber have got it going on. A #2 doubles victory might be all CMS needs to take it home in singles.

WESLEYAN

Power 6: 74.73 Steven Chen (12.95), Michael Liu (12.38), Tiago Eusebio (12.32), Joachim Samson (12.37), Cam Daniels (12.65), Princeton Carter (12.06).

Route to the Quarterfinals: Wesleyan is continuing the best season in program history. They won the NESCAC regular season for the first time, made NCAAs for the first time, and have not advanced to the Quarterfinals for the first time. Wesleyan stopped the Streakin Dream that was John Carroll’s season, with a 5-0 win in the round of 32, and then put a beatdown on Johns Hopkins in Baltimore. This is a team who could be extremely satisfied with an NCAA berth and a QF appearance, but they are hungry for more.

Why they’ll win: They don’t really have any glaring weaknesses, and they match up fairly well with CMS. They’re weakest spot is likely CMS’ strongest spot (Hull), they play good doubles, and their depth is all kinds of good. They played the Stags really close in Claremont back at the Stag Hen in March, and that was only their FIRST MATCH OF THE YEAR. I’ve been looking forward to the possibility of this match since the release of the bracket, as I think Wesleyan has a real chance to win this match.

Why they won’t: There are plenty of reasons why CMS will be the favorites in this match. A significantly higher UTR, the Stags finally appear to be clicking in doubles, they have been in this situation many times, blah blah blah. Wesleyan has never been here before, and while they’re Sweet-16 win over Hop was impressive, the biggest stage is obviously a totally different level. If the Cards show any sign of weakness, even a mere moment of nerves, look for the Stags to pounce.

X-Factor: Steven Chen. A little strange to pick a guy who has been one of the country’s best 5 singles players during the spring, but Chen represents a couple of spots that Wesleyan probably needs to win if they are going to keep the dream alive. Chen did earn two points the last time these two played, besting Parodi 6-3 in the 3rd set to win at #1 singles. Both guys have played better since that match, but Chen is coming off a somewhat surprising loss to Dubin in the Sweet-16. The self-described mini-Martina will need to have his best stuff to help the Cards to their first Final Four.

MATCH BY MATCH PREVIEW

#1 Doubles: Parodi/Morkovine (CMS) vs. Liu/Roberts (Wes).

West: When CMS beat Wesleyan at the Stag-Hen, Mork and Gordy came back from down a late break to beat Liu and Roberts in a tiebreaker to give the Stags their lone doubles victory. Since then, Liu and Roberts have put together a solid season, but they haven’t been world beaters. Meanwhile, Mork/Parodi stormed onto the scene at the Ojai, but they’ve had mixed results in team play. Most recently, they turned in an impressive victory over Lambeth and Tyer, but who knows how that will translate to Tennessee. I’m leaning towards Liu/Roberts in a tiebreaker win.

NE: Liu and Roberts put together a very solid season at #1 doubles, and I thought were robbed by not receiving a bid to NCAAs. That being said, Parodi and Mork are a very dangerous #1 team. I’ve gone back and forth on this one, and I’d usually take the team with two seniors, but in this case neither of them has a very much postseason experience. CMS, 8-6.

#2 Doubles: Berber/Hull (CMS) vs. Eusebio/Smith (Wes).

West: Eusebio and Smith have had a very impressive doubles season for Wesleyan. When I watched them dismantle Hull and Yeam at the Stag-Hen, I was impressed by their consistently great returns and all-around fundamental doubles play. It wasn’t flashy, but I can see why they made it through the season with just three losses. #2 has arguably been CMS’ weakest doubles position this year (they lost their first 10 matches at #2 doubles against ranked teams this season, and didn’t pick up their first victory until April), but Hull and Berber have been playing better lately. I’m still going to take the team with proven results (Wes) to the tune of an 8-6 win.

NE: Different doubles spot, same story. Tiago and Max have been great for Wes for this year, even if they have received fewer accolades then the #3 team of Chen and Daniels. While Berber and Hull seem to be playing very well right now, I like the team with the more developed chemistry here. Wes, 9-8 (2).

#3 Doubles: Gordy/Williams (CMS) vs. Chen/Daniels (Wes).

West: Chen and Daniels have been consistently good-but-not-great at #3 doubles this season for Wesleyan, and with the way Steven Chen has been hitting the ball all season, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him take the court over with some crazy returns in this match. That being said, having a doubles player of Gordy’s caliber at #3 is almost unfair for the Stags, and Coach Settles is probably hoping he can serve as a failsafe against a sweep. He and Williams have played just three doubles matches together all season, but they lost just 7 total games in those three matches including an 8-2 shellacking of Pitts and Crawley. I’ll take the young Stags 8-4.

NE: This is where I go a bit off script. Results say to take the baby Stags who have looked tremendous in their first few matches. However, when this Wes team is at its best, they have chances to break in every single service game. This Cards #3 team just doesn’t play close doubles matches. Only once have they even gotten to 8-6, win or lose, this entire spring. I like the Cards to come up with a big win here. Wes, 8-5.

#1 Singles: Niko Parodi (CMS-freshman) vs. Steven Chen (Wes-junior).

West: Since losing three consecutive matches in early April, Parodi has been absolutely hitting the cover off the ball (and by that I mean artfully moving his opponents around until opening enough space to hit a winner). He’s won 11 consecutive D3 matches and dropped five total games against Fagundes and Mayer this past weekend. Chen has had the opposite season, starting on a tear, which included a three-set victory against Parodi, but dropping two of his last five. I’m going to go against my ageist tendencies and pick the freshman in three close sets here. Parodi 4-6, 7-5, 6-4 for the clinch.

NE: I agree with my cycloptic colleague (little known fact, D3West’s left eye was lost in an unfortunate hiking/smelting accident) that this match should go the distance. Both guys are really freakin good and both should be considered threats to win it all at Individuals. Parodi has simply been hotter recently, so he gets the edge. CMS, 6-4, 3-6, 6-3.

#2 Singles: Glenn Hull (CMS-senior) vs. Michael Liu (Wes-senior).

West: Michael Liu is a senior, which is good. Glenn Hull is a senior, has not lost a D3 match this spring, and beat Michael Liu 2 and 0 a couple months ago, so I’m gonna stick with Sunshine. 6-2, 6-2.

NE: Hull might be DIII’s MVP right now, and while I have no doubt Mr. Liu will put up more of a fight than he did the last time these two played, the needle clearly points to Glen(n)gary. CMS, 6-1, 6-3.

#3 Singles: Daniel Morkovine (CMS-senior) vs. Tiago Eusebio (Wes-junior).

West: As a junior, Eusebio has had an unqualifiably fantastic season at #3 singles. One of the three unsightly blemishes on his record, however, is a 4 and 1 loss to CMS’ ginger assassin. The question for Mork will be whether he’ll show any ill-effects from a weekend off of singles play. My guess is no, and I will continue to ride with CMS’ seniors until the tournament ends. Mork wins 6-4, 3-6, 6-2.

NE: Another battle here. Both guys have had fantastic seasons, with Mork taking the earlier battle. However, Tiago has come into his own of late, and I would be surprised if this was an easy win for either guy. Mork is the only Stag with extensive NCAA experience, and that pays off. CMS, 4-6, 6-4, 6-1 (clinch).

#4 Singles: Max Macey (CMS-senior) vs. Joachim Samson (Wes-sophomore).

West: Another singles spot, another CMS senior. I’ve spent a lot of time writing about how Hull hasn’t lost a singles match this season, but this will be the first time I mention the fact that Max Macey has lost just one match all season. Gotta ride with the seniors. Macey 7-5, 6-3.

NE: Finally, a singles spot where I disagree! Macey is the 74th CMS senior so far, and while he’s had a fantastic year, most of that was coming down at #6. Max is more than capable of playing #4, but this is not some cupcake opponent. Joachim was actually up a set on Wildman when these two teams played back in March, and I like him to beat Macey here. Wes, 6-4, 6-3.

#5 Singles: Daniel Park (CMS-freshman) vs. Cam Daniels (Wes-junior).

West: Park has been a breath of fresh(man?) air for CMS in the singles lineup this season, and this may be the fourth rematch from CMS’ 6-3 win at the Stag-Hen. Every so often, a freshman gets a little nervy at nationals, and Cam Daniels is most certainly not a freshman. Park also lost two of his three matches away from home, while Daniels will be coming off a brutal NESCAC/NCAA stretch on the road where he managed to beat potentially the greatest #5 singles player in DIII tennis history Gil Roddy. Anyone who can beat Gil Roddy can beat pretty much anyone, so I’ll take Cam Daniels 6-4, 6-7, 6-4.

NE: D3AS needs to change his shorts after that Gil Roddy lovefest. However, Daniels is really good. Park won their earlier encounter, but Cam was playing hurt during the Stag Hen, and was eventually pulled later in the week. He seems to be fully healthy now, and while Park will be a force for years to come, I like CD to take this match. Wes, 6-3, 7-5.

#6 Singles: Alex Brenner (CMS-senior) vs. Princeton Carter (Wes-freshman).

West: Here is a match that pits two of my most dearly-held DIII tennis predictive algorithm heuristics against each other. On the one hand, you’ve got Alex Brenner, who is, in fact, a senior, and, by nature of that fact, will be playing his last collegiate tennis this week, which historically has inspired great play from previous seniors. On the other hand, you’ve got a guy who has repeatedly come through in the clutch for his team this season, and, therefore, can be expected to continue to come through in the clutch for the foreseeable future. On the third hand, Princeton Carter is, in fact, a freshman, and, hence, is generally not as good at pretty much anything as other non-freshman people. On a fourth hand, he’s got one of the alltime great names in DIII tennis. I’m at an impasse. That’s a lot of text to punt, but I’m gonna say 7-6 (10), 6-7 (12), 2-2 UNF.

NE: I want to pick The Little Prince. Believe me, reader, nothing would make me happier than taking Hurricane Carter to clinch another match and send Wes onto the Final Four. He absolutely could do it. He’s been damn good this year, but Alex Brenner playing #6 is also a tough opponent. It’s not like AB hasn’t played at all this year, he’s actually played a surprising amount given that he wasn’t technically in the starting lineup for most of the year. He looked pretty good last weekend, and we know he has the goods because he beat Yasgoor in the fall. Senior vs. Mr Clinch, I’m sticking with the senior for now, in a far less ridiculous score than the above. CMS, 7-6 (4), 7-5.

OVERALL PREDICTION:

West: CMS def. Wesleyan 5-3.

NE: Begrudgingly, CMS def. Wesleyan 5-4 in a hell of a match, sending the Stags to the Final Four.