Skid @ Midd Tuesday @4pm
Well look who finally decided his wrist was healthy enough to play? Loutsenko stepped in against the defending champions last weekend and decided to throw a giant monkey wrench into the Selection Committee’s seeding arrangements. We knew that Skidmore’s #1 doubles team was good, but their going to have to level up in order to contend with Middlebury this afternoon. Let’s hope there were no setbacks for Oliver after his weekend performance, and if he’s healthy this could end up a close match. Just for the record, I don’t think Skidmore can win this match, but it could be close.
I do like the team of Loutsenko/Knight as this team has been dominant all spring and is coming off a blanking of Micheli/Schidlovsky. Unfortunately for Skid, Midd’s other teams should be too talented. I like Midd’s #2’s to win easily, but the #3 match could be a close one. I’ll take Midd, but close (9-7-ish). As for singles…normally I would like Loutsenko over Johnston at #1 singles, but the forecast calls for rain in Vt today, so this match will likely be played indoors. That changes it to a toss-up match in my mind. I do like Campbell over Sherpa in straights, and Jones over Knight in 3 sets (though not a close 3 sets). Skidmore has its best chance for singles points at 4&5 singles, and I’ll say they get one of those two matches (probably 5 vs. Mountifield). Although Steerman was the hero against Williams last weekend, Frons should outmatch him and win in straight sets. There you have it, a good effort from the Thoroughbreds, but not enough for another victory. Midd, 6-3. I’ll say it now though, this Skidmore team is very talented (with a healthy Loutsenko), and no one should want them in their NCAA draw as a #3 seed.
MIT @ Tufts Wednesday @3:30pm
MIT is reeling right now, and while Tufts is without Jacobson for an undisclosed period of time, they should still be able to handle the Engineers with relative east. ASouth said it best when he jokingly gave MIT’s doubles the POTW award. The doubles in Cambridge has been lacking for several years now, but getting swept by Deis had to be a slap in the face. While this match doesn’t mean a whole heck of a lot to MIT, there is a scenario in which it will make a difference for Tufts. The final NESCAC tiebreaker is NCAA ranking, so a loss to MIT could drop Tufts behind Bates or Colby or Trinity Ct in the rankings. I’ll be writing an article about possible NESCAC scenarios later this week, leading up to the Tufts/Colby bout on Friday afternoon and the plethora of NESCAC action this weekend. I do like Zhang over Glickman, and if RJ is still sidelined, I like Oh over Blau/Tan at 3rd singles. I’ll take a Jacobson-less Tufts team to take a lead out of doubles and at least split the singles for a 5-4 or 6-3 Jumbo win.
Williams @ Trinity Ct Wednesday @4pm
Can the Ephs recover from 2 absolutely brutal losses this past weekend? Of course they can. I already give Williams a ton of credit for how they rebounded after that Skidmore loss by taking Amherst down to the wire. Trinity is a team that could pose a few problems for the Ephs. Trinity has the depth, something that Williams seems to be lacking. Little side note, where is Rohan Shastri? Local Ro has been playing some dubs, but has his singles really fallen off since the fall? He was playing above Harron in their fall dual match with Wesleyan. Perhaps he’s pulling a Loutsenko and just biding his time until the right moment? ANYWAYS, Williams’ doubles should be able to deal with Trinity, as that is the Bantams’ weak-point. I like Williams to take at least a 2-1 lead after doubles, and maybe even sweep. After obtaining a regional ranking of #3, Carpenter seems to have lost his mojo, and I like Micheli at #1. Likewise I’m a fan of Harron at #2, though I’ll take Matingo in 3 sets at 3rd singles. Lil’ Weiss at #4 should work out much better for the Ephs than he did at #3 and I think he eases his way to a straight set win at line 4. 5&6 should be good matches, as Trinity really has a lineup that is full of what would be excellent 4’s and 5’s. I’ll take Trinity at both deep lineup spots, making the score a bit closer than the match actually was. Williams wins it, 6-3.
Bates @ Bowdoin Wednesday @4pm
This is the best midweek matchup in my opinion. Bates has been playing significantly better tennis of late, and Bowdoin, while winning every match they were supposed to, has made doubters out of all the writers (and the Guru). We saw what an underdog can do in a NESCAC rivalry match last weekend with Williams taking Amherst to 5-4 and a 3rd set at #2. While this matchup has been lacking the seesaw results usually necessary for a rivalry, there is a more than just a mutual dislike here. Bowdoin is the better team, but I’ve thought Bates matches up rather well with them all year. Let’s take a slightly more in-depth look at the matchups.
1 doubles is an advantage for Bates. Bowdoin has recently switched their doubles teams, and had pretty solid results in doing so. But Berg/Planche have been rolling over the past few weeks. As for #2 doubles, this presents a bit of a swing match. My general rule this year has been to always pick against the Bates #2 doubles team, but the new Bowdoin #2 team has been just as bad (getting blown out by both Colby and Middlebury). I’m gonna take Bowdoin here, but I can’t say that I feel confident doing so. Speaking of incontinence, let’s take a look at that #3 doubles matchup. Ellis/Ruta have had a decent year, but we don’t know if Ellis will be playing come Wednesday, as he’s had to sit out the past two matches. Ruta/Lee still present a somewhat formidable team (even if the average height of that team is 5ft 2inches. Bowdoin’s #3 team of Savage/Lord presents us with one of the palest teams in the country, but a team that should be able to grind for dayz. Just because they’re supposed to be a better team, I’m taking Bowdoin in a breaker at 3rd dubs, but remember that both 2&3 could go either way.
For the singles matchups, I’m gonna assume that Ellis is healthy, basically because I don’t think Bates can win without him. Berg and Bragg should be a grind-fest, but I like Bragg to outlast my glorified pusher in 3 sets. Bragg needs this win to keep himself in the NCAA conversation. At #2 singles we have the best matchup of the day, Trinka vs. Planche. Planche has been the brightest spot for the Bobcats and I think he’ll continue that trend, taking down Trinka in 3 sets. The freshman, Ellis, at 3 shouldn’t present too much difficulty for the Senior, King, and I like Bowdoin to win this one in straights. At 4 we get another interesting matchup of Lord and Feldman. Both grinders, but again I’m going with experience and the Bowdoin senior, this time in 3 sets. Lee has been playing very well of late, but I don’t think he’s playing well enough to beat Wolstencraft, whose only loss since California came in a super to Mountifield after his team had already lost. I like Wolstencraft in straight sets, with one set closer than the other. The final singles spot comes with an entertaining grinder vs. big hitter matchup, Savage and Ordway. As always, I like the grinder to overcome the firepower, but Savage has been a bit of a mystery this year and he got double bageled by Frons last weekend. I’ll take the Polar Bear, but this match is a bit of a question mark.
To recap, I like Bates at #1 dubs and think that both #2 and #3 dubs are toss-ups. I like Bowdoin at #3, #4, and #5 singles, and think they’re slight favorites at #1 and #6, with Bates being a slight favorite at #2. That lines up for a 3-2 Bowdoin lead, with a bunch of close matchups. Overall, I’m taking Bowdoin to do what they’ve done all year, play somewhat down to their competition, and eek out a 5-4 victory that might not be as close as the score would suggest.
After the Wednesday matches are played we’ll have a better idea of where these teams lie in terms of post-season hopes. I’ll be back with an article on Thursday night, detailing the NESCAC playoff scenarios that could come from the weekend. Until then, don’t let your leftover Peeps go to waste, express mail them to D3West (tweet at him for his address).
Oops.