With the matches beginning shortly, I wanted to review the historical Final Fours and see what trends are noticeable as to which teams are winning. Given the Indoors trends article I did being way off in predicting this year, let me remind everyone to not put too much weight on what has happened historically. Below are the teams and their overall tournament seed that have been in the past eight Final Fours:
2015
1. CMS vs. 5. Wash U
3. Middlebury vs. 7. Chicago
Final: CMS-Middlebury
2014
1. CMS vs. 4. Middlebury
3. Amherst vs. 7. Trinity TX
Final: CMS-Amherst
2013
1. CMS vs. 4. Amherst
3. Williams vs. 7. Wash U
Final: CMS-Williams
2012
8. Wash U vs. 4. Kenyon
3. Williams vs. 2. Emory
Final: Kenyon-Emory
2011
1. Emory vs. 4. Wash U
6. Williams vs. 2. Amherst
Final: Emory-Amherst
2010
1. Middlebury vs. 4. Wash U
3. CMS vs. 7. Amherst
Final: Middlebury-Amherst
2009
1. Wash U vs. 5. Amherst
3. Santa Cruz vs. 2. Emory
Final: Amherst-Santa Cruz
2008
CMS vs. 4. Wash U
3. Middlebury vs. 2. Emory
Final: Wash U-Emory
-The first thing that I’d like to point out is the top four seeds headed into NCAAs have never all made the semis. So if Emory, Bowdoin, Midd and CMS all win today, this will be a first.
-The only regional #2 seed to ever make the Final Four is CMS in 2008. Footnote on that is that they were #2 in the country when this happened and beat the #1 ranked Cruz team in the Sweet 16. So basically, if Kenyon or Hopkins wins today they will be making history.
-This also means that a team ranked outside the top 15 has never made the Final Four. Hopkins at #26 would be the lowest ranked team to make it by a wide margin.
-The past three seasons, the #7 seed has upset the #2 seed in the quarters.
-The #3 seed has made the Final the past three years and has won the quarterfinal match in seven of eight years.
-The #1 seed has made the Final five of the past six years.
-There has been at least one NESCAC team in every final four.
-There has been at least one UAA team in seven of the eight final fours. In 2014 when no UAA teams made it, three of them were in the quarters. Three UAA teams have made the quarters the past three seasons.
-This is the third time in nine years that a UAA team holds the top overall seed.
-There have been ten different teams in the Final Four. Today we are guaranteed to get #11, but the six other teams competing have all made it.
-There has been a NESCAC team in the Final six of the past seven years.
-The only non-top four seed to make the final is Amherst. They did it back to back years in ’09 and ’10. The “Jeffs” made three consecutive finals 2009-2011 and entered 2012 as the #1 overall seed and heavy favorite only to be upset in the quarters.
-There has only been one #1 vs. #2 final – in 2011.
-Bonus fact! – In their five previous appearances in the Final 8 or further, Kenyon has been knocked out by a UAA team every time