Landmark Conference Tournament Preview

Happy conference tournament week, boys and girls! Yes, some of them have already taken place, but I don’t think there are very many regular season matches left to be played, so we’re officially branding this week as CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT WEEK on The Blog. We will have a few conference tournament previews, a Pool-C update, and of course, our penultimate bracketology. Quick side note, the Guru is actually in Grenyarnia refortifying himself for his final two bracketologies (yes, he has already shaved his head in his yearly May-preparation). According to D3Tree, the best/only source for this information, 11 teams have already qualified for NCAAs, and today we’re bringing in a guest-lecturer to educate the masses about four teams vying to become the 12th. He’s a little quick to name himself, but we’ll give the first-timer a pass…

Hi guys, special guest D3Landmark (yeah I know, not as catchy as D3midwest or D3central. I’m working on it) here! Over in the Landmark Conference, the conference tournament is starting up on Tuesday and there are going to be fireworks. Although our humble conference isn’t quite at the level of NESCAC or UAA, the conference tournament will be extremely tight and all four teams in contention have a good shot at taking the whole thing.

The Story So Far:

Four teams make the conference tournament in the Landmark Conference. Conveniently, four teams have dominated the conference all season: defending champions Goucher, Scranton, Juniata, and Drew. These teams have played each other very close for the whole regular season, with no matches more one-sided than 6-3 between any of these four teams. Juniata and Scranton come in with 6-1 records, while Goucher and Drew hold 5-2 marks; every top four team has beaten at least one of the others, and no team stands unblemished. Let’s take a look at how the tournament is going to shape up, starting with the semifinals.

#4 DREW @ #1 JUNIATA

Drew University: The Hotshots

Why they will win: Top of the lineup. It’s always nice to have the conferences’ undisputed best player on your team, and Drew has that in Salikh Gilmudintov. Gilmudintov has absolutely rolled through all of his singles matches this year, looking barely troubled against the other #1s in the conference. He also has quite a respectable record at 1st and 2nd doubles with partner Will Morrison. The second half of the Drew one-two punch, Vineet Vemulapally, is probably the best #2 in the conference, having not dropped a singles match in conference all season. In addition to his 7-0 record in singles, Vemulapally’s doubles record with partner Geoff Diehl is strong. Drew basically fields two 1.5 doubles teams of Gilmudintov/Morrison and Vemulapally/Diehl, so expect them to sweep through second doubles and put up a good fight at first.

Why they won’t win: Depth. This might seem like a no-brainer for a team whose strength is the top of the lineup, but Drew’s depth has been a liability all season. They recently lost both members of their third doubles team to injury, but even before that they weren’t doing great down there. In addition, their records at #5 and #6 singles have been subpar at best this season. In fact, Drew hasn’t gotten a single point from the bottom positions against any of the other top three teams. If the top of Drew’s lineup can’t pull it out, don’t expect a huge return from their depth.

Juniata College: Soaring Eagles

Why they will win: Strong singles play. Juniata plays the most balanced singles game in the conference. They’ve at least split singles in all of their conference matches, and have really strong players at all six singles position. They also have the best #6 in the conference in Owen Grafe, holding a 7-0 record in that spot. The Eagles have also shown the ability to seriously go the distance, beating Goucher in a statement match featuring three-setters at #4 and #6 singles.

Why they won’t win: Inconsistent doubles play. Well, Juniata has to have some weakness, right? I can’t even say their doubles teams are bad; a 3-0 sweep against Scranton basically throws that argument out the window. What I can say about Juniata’s doubles lineup is that it’s inconsistent. They went down 1-2 in doubles against Goucher and Drew, and that will be a death sentence if they repeat that in the conference tournament. In order to get past the semifinals, Juniata will have to tighten up their doubles play.

Match outlook: Drew beat Juniata 5-4 when they played in the regular season, going up 2-1 after doubles and then securing a singles split with wins at #1, #2, and #4. If they want to repeat that, they’ll have to do it the exact same way. Matyas Kohout rolled at #3, and Juniata won at #5 and #6 even missing a couple starters, so Drew doesn’t exactly have a lot of room for error. Juniata needs to find a way to flip one match (#1 doubles in particular was very close, finishing 9-7 to Drew), while Drew needs to stay solid and stick to the game plan.

Prediction: Juniata fights hard, but can’t find a way to flip a match and the regular season result repeats itself. 5-4 Drew.

#3 GOUCHER @ #2 SCRANTON

Goucher College: The Defending Champs

Why they will win: Clutch factor. More than any other team in the upper reaches of the conference, Goucher has shown the ability to pull matches out wherever they need them. Goucher hasn’t relied on guaranteed points anywhere to get their wins, but they can’t be counted out at any position. Against the other top three teams, they’ve had every position outside of #2 singles win at least once. They have players capable of grabbing wins at every spot in both singles and doubles, and as defending conference champions they know what it takes to come through in the clutch.

Why they won’t win: Lack of guaranteed points. While Drew has Gilmudintov at #1, Scranton has Harkins at #5 and Prendergast at #3, and Juniata has Grafe at #6, Goucher kind of lacks ‘free points’. Goucher is the only team out of the top four who has no players without a loss in conference. This means that their whole team has to play well to win close matches. They can’t afford to be even a little bit below their usual level, or the other top teams in this conference will take advantage of them. We saw this in their match against Scranton, where they dropped three close doubles matches and couldn’t get better than a split in singles. Just as Goucher has the potential to win at every position, they also have the potential to lose at every position.

University of Scranton: The Scrappers

Why they will win: Strength all the way through the lineup. Scranton probably has the deepest lineup in the conference from top to bottom. Keller McGurrin isn’t the most threatening #1, but after that Scranton’s lineup starts looking very scary. Alexander Ochalski has been one of the best #2s in the conference, only dropping a very close three-setter to Vineet Vemulapally of Drew. Matt Prendergast and Brian Harkins are the best #3 and #5 players in the Landmark. They’re both undefeated on the season and have generally rolled through everyone in their paths. Scranton struggled a bit at #4 earlier in the season, but since moving Charles Swope up to that position and bringing in Christian Asku at #6 they’ve looked a lot more solid. They also likely have the best ‘off-day game’ in the conference. If you told me the entire conference tournament would be played with each team playing their worst tennis, I’d take Scranton to win the whole thing in a heartbeat.

Why they won’t win: Dependence on doubles. For all I’ve said about Scranton’s depth, the other teams in this conference tournament are capable of matching up with them, particularly at #1, #4, and #6. They’re going to at least split singles in every match of their conference tournament, but I wouldn’t tip them to be able to grab 4 or 5 points if they go down in doubles. As we saw against Juniata (where they went down 0-3 in doubles and couldn’t pull it back), if Scranton can’t establish a lead in doubles it’s going to be a long day.

Match outlook: Scranton took this match 6-3 in the regular season, pulling out a sweep in doubles and splitting singles with solid wins at #2, #3, and #5. It’s been a little while since then, and both teams have improved their lineups in the last three weeks. Goucher has switched up their doubles lineup, while Scranton has pulled Swope up to #4 and brought in Asku at #6. Goucher needs to establish a foothold in doubles to stand a chance. If they can at least get one point from doubles, they might be able to clutch out four points in singles. On the other hand, Scranton will be coming in full of confidence, knowing that they can afford to drop a point and still get a win.

Prediction: Goucher puts up a better fight than last time, but Scranton gets over the finish line first in a five-hour marathon. 5-4 Scranton.

Finals Prediction: This leaves us with Drew vs. Scranton in the final. Scranton beat Drew relatively comfortably when they last met, although Drew looked really shaky in singles. That said, Scranton did legitimately look like the better team, and none of their individual wins were particularly close. I think Drew raises their level and gives Scranton a real test, but Scranton wins 5-4 and takes the Landmark Conference crown.