Well it seems I decided to come out of writing retirement to preview what is likely my favorite tournament of the year. Yes you can get excited for Indoors, Stag Hen, or nationals, but nothing like a 128 draw individual tournament that will separate the men from the boys. In the past couple of years, this really has been the Chicago show as the final has been moved to their campus and turned into a challenge match for All American status. I would like to say this year should be different, but if I were a betting man (and trust me I am ), I would expect it to happen again this season. The difference? A lot of new faces will be challenging for the title. Wash U should have a challenger or two and there is always someone from outside the power two that will make the quarters, but I truly don’t see any big surprises here. While I don’t have the draw or even the seeds, here is my take on the upcoming ITAs at Kalamazoo.
The FAVORTIES
Chicago: It sounds like an overstatement, but anyone on the Chicago roster is good enough to win this draw. They likely will only get 8 entrants per tournament rules, but all 8 of them have a shot to take it down. Missing from the Western Michigan tournament this past weekend and likely missing from this year’s ITAs will be Nicolas Chua and David Liu. If either of these guys were to play, they are choices 1a and 1b to win it. Without them, it’s fairly up in the air which Maroon should win. Sophomore Erik Kerrigan will likely be the top seed. He returns from an up and down year in dual matches, but a phenomenal run to the quarterfinals last year at individuals. There are a number of Chicago freshman who are probably next on the list, but I will save them for the next category. Two guys with rather big games who can beat anyone on any given day are Charlie Pei and Peter Leung. Both have the talent to make a deep run and Leung was my unseeded sleeper pick to make the finals last year. Guess what….he did. While I expect Luke Tsai to get seeded this year, he’s the one guy no other top player wants to see across the net. He is a gamer and I have always called him the giant killer, but that nickname has gone to waste, because Tsai is a giant himself. Depending on the draw, I could see him making the semis rather easily. Finally, a big question mark is sophomore transfer Abhin Sharma. I obviously don’t have much knowledge on him, but a former 5 star top 50 player somehow gets lost on this roster which is insane.
Wash U: Not nearly as deep as the Chicago contingent, Wash U does have some firepower that will at least make it late Saturday into Sunday. Johnny Wu is a beast, but his grind it out style has got to take it’s toll by the time Sunday rolls around. Being a high seed (potentially #2) will help him get through the first two rounds a bit easier. If the draw is unkind and he gets an unseeded Chicago player early, that will hurt his chances. Going off of the Purdue Invitation results, JJ “I am” Kroot has made a bit of a jump above a few teammates. The sophomore is a blog favorite and I can see the lefty causing some problems for many. Wash U also has a few freshman in the mix, but Jason Haugen and Bernardo Neves will be a couple of Bears with some bite (see what I did there? Dad jokes for the win). Haugen didn’t feature in singles at Purdue so his status is unknown after being out a bit last season.
The FRESHMEN
Tytus Metzler: Ah I wanted to start off with someone not from Chicago or Wash U because it’s going to get redundant. Another familiar name, but not a familiar face is Tytus Metzler. We all know what his brother accomplished while at Kalamazoo and the hope is Tytus can bring the same firepower. He comes in as a higher ranked junior player than Brandon, but that means about as much as it does to be the new D3Central Blogger. I expect Tytus to make a decent run to at least the round of 16 and might be the one guy who sniffs the quarters.
Mathew Chen: Case Western always brings in a few talented freshmen who need some developing before they make the big jump into the national scene. Out of all of them, Matthew Chen looks to be the most ready. He had a solid weekend at Kenyon this fall and hopes to follow it up with a good showing.
Mitchell Thai and Vladislov Rotnov: Denison is trying their best to get back into the top 25 and this freshman class looks to be the best one Coach Burling has brought in for many years. Mitchell Thai and Vladislov Rotnov are at the top of the class and already have turned in solid performances in their fall tournaments. Because I have an affinity for Russian/Eastern European players (see Earlham 2013 roster), I am giving Rotnov a slight edge to make a further run.
Daniel Li, Ben VanDerSman, and Koki Takabatake: Wash U has a trio of freshmen all looking to break out. Just by virtue of how they were flighted at Purdue, Daniel Li looks to be the favorite of the three to go the furthest, but the other two are just as talented. While I can’t add much at this point on their style of play, let’s just take a moment and admire the names we have here. VanDerSman and Van Zee are pretty much the same so we are basically brothers and Takabatake is my new favorite player based off name alone. I mean just say it over and over again and you will enjoy your day.
Alejandro Rodriguez, Jeremy Yuan, Justin Lee: Ok I waited as long as I could to talk about how Chicago should dominate this tournament, but here are the Chicago 5 star freshmen who will cause some issues for whomever they play. The order I have them in is the order they played at Western Michigan and all showed some good signs taking down D1 talent. One of the three will make the quarters and I would even go as far and say one makes the semis (unless they fall to other Chicago teammates of course).
The FORGOTTEN
This list might as well look like an Rest In Peace segment. Everyone of these players have game, but none of them are likely to run through the murderer’s row of Chicago and Wash U players it will take to win it.
James Fojtasek: Back for a 5th year, Fojtasek is a grinder which doesn’t set up well for this tournament. Either way, he does have an upset in him so beware of him if he’s in your part of the draw. Hasn’t had the most stellar fall though.
Kevin Brown: Not to be outshone by the freshman, Kevin Brown played #1 for Denison last year.
Titus Bera: Solid player from Wooster. Has a tendency to play well, but not at ITAs. Needs to change that trend.
Sam Totten: Augustana’s #1. Solid player, not a big enough game. Upset alert in the first round depending on the draw.
Vitali Stadnyk: Earlham’s #1. Was a high seed last year and lost first round. ITA’s have not been his friend.
Michael Drougas: Best match I ever saw was Drougas and David Liu as freshman in the quarters of this very tourney. Not sure if he can return to that form.
Austin Diehl: Beat teammate Zalenski in first fall tourney, but then fell to Denison freshman the next weekend.
Jake Zalenski: See Diehl. Big forehand, but breaks down easily.
Shouta Fukamachi: Another great name for Ohio Wesleyan’s top guy.
DePauw: Roster is completely new…so who knows, but I don’t like their prospects
Wheaton: Dane Paulson can’t play on Sunday’s unfortunately.
ANYONE ELSE?!?
CONCLUSION
I can assure you that in my old age I have missed many other players that are worth mentioning, but I can also assure you that they likely don’t have much of a chance on the weekend of this tournament. This is a marathon and the better the talent, the more likely they are going to take the title. One of the above players will undoubtedly draw Chicago’s 7th or 8th guy or Wash U’s 6-8 and be upset. It’s going to happen. Hopefully there are some surprise freshman or transfers that could make a whole lot of noise. I am not going to attempt to predict doubles because I don’t even know who is paired with whom yet and it’s a crapshoot even with that information. I really wanted to wait until the draws were out to post this so I could prove to you that I am a prediction genius once again, but the tyrant Headmaster forced me to put this out early. Look for tweets once the draw is out so I can put people on upset alert. And as always, comment your own thoughts. Looking forward to a great Chicago showcase up in Kalamazoo.
Dear D3CentralTennis,
I think a huge factor that you are forgetting to undertake is the mental aspect of every player. Granted it is difficult to gauge such an aspect, but I believe that players such as Daniel Li (WashU) who has a extremely strong mental fortitude well prove successful against a lot of these top players especially with his play style. In time, I guarantee you that Daniel Li will play high on the line up and will be a championship contender!
Always appreciate the comments and insight. I value the mental aspect more than most, but Li is a freshman. There is no way I would have any idea what kind of competitor Daniel Li is or will be. Some players take some time to adjust to college tennis while others thrive immediately. Daniel Li is in the to be determined category but this weekend is a chance for him to make a name for himself.
By the way, BIG FAN of your blogs! Also do you really think it is unlikely for the UChicago freshmen to play in the lineup this year? I know their current lineup is already very strong, but all the recruits are also very highly rated on Tennis Recruiting, especially Jeremy Yuan. How do you think the dynamic of the team will change with the addition of the transfer Abhin Sharma from Georgia State. Personally, I believe that Jeremy Yuan can take him out and will play above him in the lineup but what are your thoughts?
Unfortunately only time will tell on what freshmen will be in the lineup. All of Chicago’s players were highly touted freshman so you really can’t go off of that. It is very dependent on Chua and David Liu as well, but with them, I expect Chua at 1, Liu at 2, and Kerrigan at 3. The bottom half of the lineup is wide open, but Luke Tsai seems like a lock at 6 (or he should be). That leaves 4 and 5 open for Pei, Leung, Sharma, or the three freshmen. My gut and sources are telling me that Rodriguez is the top of the first year’s so Yuan is going to have to battle it out. I don’t expect to see Sharma in the top 6. If you look at the line up used at Western Michigan, Yuan was slotted ahead of Pei, Leung, and fellow freshman Justin Lee (and even Tsai), but behind Rodriguez. so early indicators show he has a chance to play in the top 6.
Thanks for the preview.
A couple of years back, I believe you predicted Johnny Wu to win on the grounds that his grinding style was most favorable for the 128-player draw. Yet in the above, you argue that Wu–and Fojtasek–will face uphill battles due to their lack of firepower. Has your mindset shifted due to the (relative) lack of success from these two grinders?
Hey Matt, you are right in that my mindset has shifted a bit. It is a combination of lack of success shown in recent years as well as the inability to have an easy first few rounds to save legs. I go back to a match I witnessed with Johnny Wu against Josh Dughi in the first or second round. It was a 3 hour grind fest that had to take it’s toll. Players with bigger weapons usually can cruise through the first couple of rounds where Johnny may not be able to do so. His footwork is so impressive, but takes a lot of effort each match. He is very high on fitness, but 7 matches in 4 days is a lot so without a few easy wins, it’s more difficult. If he gets through the first few rounds with ease and is fresh on Sunday/Monday, then he becomes very dangerous.