It’s INDOORS WEEK and we are all excited to bring the action and analysis to your computers, tablets, iTouches, IPads, etc!! This section of the draw is extremely intriguing as we have two solid teams, a favorite in CMS, and the potential for an absolute cinderella story in Trinity(TX). Three of these four teams come from out West (Redlands, Trinity(TX), and CMS)… expect these matches to not only have national implications, but huge regional implications as well for such teams. This will add another notch of pressure, especially for Redlands if they want to be considered for a pool-c spot later on in the season. This evening we have NewD3Central here with me to give his Wash U expertise, and later on we have a celeb-shot from your Headmaster as well. Anyways, enough talk, let’s get down to the nitty gritty!!
No. 3 WASH U vs No. 6 REDLANDS
Why Wash U will win: Wash U will win because they’re deeper at three through six singles, they play fundamental doubles top to bottom, and they’re bringing a team culture used to playing National Indoors. Wash U’s lineup could be headlined by anywhere from 2-4 first years, and while that would usually raise concerns – I believe that Follmer will have his team exceedingly prepared for the weekend. I’d reckon that there’s a less than 20% chance that Redlands sweeps doubles, with the most likely outcome being a 2-1 Wash U lead. However, even assuming a 2-1 deficit after doubles, Wash U has to be favored at a minimum: four singles positions. Wash U’s singles depth will be the biggest difference maker in this match, but they must also play high energy doubles early to prevent a doubles collapse being the takeaway from Wash U v Redlands. Wash U will win 6-3 after taking a 2-1 doubles lead – I think that only two matches go the three set distance.
Why they won’t: Redlands is a talented team with a big opportunity and nothing to lose – what’s more dangerous than that? If Redlands is able to take a lead after doubles, a sweep preferably, than they can ride their quality at the top of the lineup to the semis of Indoors. Wash U’s worst case scenario is a Redlands doubles lead, at least two wins from Lipscomb, Krimbill, and Dulle and their freshmen prove to be just that – freshmen. It would be quite an upset and I think a sweep is realistically the only way we see pandemonium in Minnesota.
Bear to watch: Wash U has a plethora of talented players up and down the lineup; players that we’ve gotten to see over the past couple of years – think Wu, Neves, Kroot, Haugen, Kozlowski, etc. – but I think that the big difference makers and the player(s) to watch this weekend will be the Wash U freshmen. van der Sman (shoutout to Jodie in the comments for the grammar tip), Li, Wu, and Takabatake have all gotten play time this year, and all four could feasibly play this weekend at one time or another. But I think that the freshman to watch will be van der Sman, who played two against Southwestern Baptist, not only because he has the team’s highest UTR (12.21) but he’s from Minnesota! Woodbury! Just a touch over an hour from GAC, so I imagine it will be a nice homecoming for the Minnesota kid. I think that he’ll be able to round up some homies to give the Bears a crowd presence at GAC. Hopefully we get to see van der Sman and Krimbill battle at 2 in a match that previews the next era of Wash U and Redlands tennis.
Why Redlands will win: Redlands will win because of a combination of the Dawgs having nothing to lose and the fact that they simply do not have many holes in either of their singles and doubles lineups. They may not have the talent that the Bears possess, but Roche has been able to comprise a team that is extremely deep and solid throughout. For this reason, I think they could arrive in Minnesota with a sense of not only having nothing to lose against Wash U., but knowing they have a team that is able to take out such a perennial top 5 team on a stage such as Indoors. Redlands can play very good doubles and Lipscomb has been able to step up his game. If they can sweep doubles and take a 3-0 lead into singles, let’s hope the Dawgs, in which most of their players have grown up in CA, would be able to transform their game to an indoor setting.
Why they won’t: Wash U. is simply too talented throughout their lineup. Redlands may be able to sneak a lead into singles, but if they don’t go up 3-0, I don’t see the Dawgs finding 4 (maybe 5) singles points to secure the win. For this reason alone, I see the Bears simply being too deep at the middle and bottom of the lineup for the Dawgs. The only way, in my opinion, for the Dawgs to pull off the upset, is if they go up 3-0 in doubles.
Dawg to watch: Cameron Krimbill. It seems that he will play #2 singles (behind Lipscomb) and #3 doubles with Lacetera. If this freshman is able to replicate his play from the fall (he did beat Parodi which is a rather impressive win), he will be an extremely solid #2 for the Dawgs. He might be the most consistent point for the Dawgs this year and if there is a time and place that points are most coveted, it is at Indoors. If Krimbill is able to out-talent his opponents at #3 doubles with Lacetera and take care of business against many of nation’s top 2’s, he could be the deciding factor in many of the matches we’ll see this year. For this upcoming Indoor tournament, I’m very intrigued to see how Krimbill will perform and whether he lives up to the hype.
PREDICTIONS:
AS: Wash U def Redlands 5-4
NE: Wash U def. Redlands 6-3
DIIIWest: Wash U def. Redlands 6-3
Reg ASouth: Wash U def. Redlands 6-3
Regional: Redlands def. Wash U 5-4
NewCentral: Wash U def. Redlands 6-3
No. 2 CMS vs No. 7 TRINITY TX
Why CMS will win: CMS is simply too talented and well-coached to lose focus and find themselves on the wrong end of this match. We’re all excited to see their official lineup and where Katzman and Burney end up. Regardless, they are simply too good to lose this match against an already dejected Trinity(TX) team. In my opinion, this will be the easiest first round for any team in this Indoor tournament. The Stags will use this match to get their footing under them and adjust to the Indoor courts, as they’ll have two very tough matches in the semis and finals. From what we saw last year in Nationals against Midd and Emory, it doesn’t take a whole lot of time and/or adjustment for the Stags when it comes to indoor tennis.
Why they won’t: The Tigers can play inspiring doubles and if push comes to shove, may scare the Stags and head into singles up 3-0. If, BIG IF, it gets to this point, I still don’t see the Tigers being able to find two singles points. Lambeth and Hamilton could come out of the gates firing away and absolutely suffocate their opponents, especially in an indoor setting. That 3-0 doubles lead and two wins from Lambeth and Hamilton is the only way I see the Tigers winning this. Again, will it happen? No.
Stag to watch: Oscar Burney. I, along with many others, am very intrigued with where Burney will end up in the lineup. He is an extremely clutch addition to an already talented Stag squad. No matter where he plays in the lineup (most likely #2 or #3), expect Burney to be able to win all three of his matches against great players. More importantly, he pushes everyone else down in the lineup which makes the Stags even more of a dangerous team than last year.
Why Trinity Tx will win: I think AS said it best down below. I’ll leave it at that.
Why they won’t: It’s a tad sad, but Trinity(TX) is just not the same as in previous years. They aren’t as deep, talented, or fired up as we’re all used to. Their trip up to Whitman was rather disappointing with two blowout losses to Whitman and Redlands, before barely squeaking by Lewis and Clark, 5-4. They are set to play one of the best teams in the country in the first round of Indoors… in the spirit of the winter olympics, it would take a “miracle on ice” (get it? Cause they’re in Minnesota) for the Tigers to pull off the upset over the Stags.
Tiger to watch: Wilson Hamilton. It seems like he received the nod to play #1 singles and we’ll see how the freshman will compete against some of the best 1’s in the country. Hamilton could be the face of the future for Trinity(TX), we’ll see this weekend if he has the goods to take out the likes of Parodi, Wu, and Lipscomb (even though he just lost to Lipscomb 6-1, 6-1 in Whitman, but this is a new week!).
AS: I’m filling in here a bit because I’m the overbearing Headmaster who loves to check in on his writers and make sure they are on task. I don’t have a dog in this fight, and honestly there might only be one dog in this fight anyways. Trinity just came off a spanking from Whitman and Redlands while almost losing to Lewis and Clark. That’s a little different than CMS. Trinity TX will be happy to get out of this one with 1 win let alone 5, so we can keep this short. Something I am personally excited to see is the addition of Oscar Burney to CMS. I love the fact that CMS is playing here at indoors for the first time in a long time, by the way. I wonder what made Settles decide to do it this year. Maybe he wants a sneak peek at Emory and Chicago. That’s all for me.
PREDICTIONS:
AS: CMS def. Trinity Tx 9-0
NE: CMS def. Trinity Tx 8-1
DIIIWest: CMS def. Trinity Tx 9-0
Reg ASouth: CMS def. Trinity Tx 9-0
Regional: CMS def. Trinity Tx 8-1
NewCentral: CMS def. Trinity Tx 9-0