It sounds amazing, but we are just about half way through the 2017 season. I wrote some brief comments on each team and broke things into five categories. I tried to touch on just about everyone in the top 30 as well as a few other teams that have stuck out to me. Apologies if you don’t appear in here, but that likely means you would fit into the “Business as Usual” category.
The National Title Contenders
Emory has come back with a vengeance after a tough NCAA semifinal loss last year. The Eagles won Indoors again and head into upcoming clashes with Midd and CMS with a lot of confidence. Bowdoin had a very good California swing and heads into the NESCAC season as the favorite to win the conference. The Polar Bears look focused and ready to defend their title. CMS hasn’t been stellar on the doubles court, but they’ve more than made up for it with their singles play. Right now, the Stags are a trendy pick for the 2017 national title and the pieces are there to do it, but something tells me they can’t win it all continually getting swept in doubles. Middlebury has looked good early against some less talented competition, but the Panthers are still a question mark. They have experience on their side having made two consecutive NCAA Finals, but do they have the players to keep up with Bowdoin and Amherst? Chicago has had some impressive wins and some losses that they can’t be happy with. The Maroons have incredible talent and know how to win in NCAAs. They’ll be looking to take the next step this year after two consecutive Final 4s. Amherst is still young and has some unknowns, but I was impressed by their performances against Trinity TX and Emory. They should contend for the NESCAC title, but they haven’t proven they can win in the postseason without Garner. Wash U has lost to other teams in this category, but we know to never count them out. The Bears play good doubles and have a history of bringing their best tennis in May.
Something to Prove
Wesleyan is looking to qualify for their first ever NCAA tournament. They set themselves up nicely with great play in California, but need to keep it going against their conference rivals. CMU has had opportunities against top teams but hasn’t capitalized. They are set up well for the postseason with a ranking in the Top 8 in the country. If they can finish Top 4 in the UAA, they should have another shot at reaching that elusive NCAA quarterfinal. Williams squeaked out matches against Redlands and Pomona which was huge for them. They may need to finish Top 4 in their conference to qualify for NCAAs. The Ephs are looking to get back to their form from early in this decade after missing NCAAs the past two seasons.
Business as Usual
Mary Washington is the definition of business as usual. The Eagles are doing exactly what they are supposed to do and had recent good wins over Newport and Bates. Gustavus has losses against a few Top 15 teams, but also beat up on most of the Midwest. They have some tough matches coming up against Midd, Tyler and Southwestern. Skidmore played very well despite their 8th place finish at Stag-Hen. They give top teams a hard time but are still looking for a breakthrough win. Pomona-Pitzer had a very good couple of wins in the Indoors backdraw but look to be the exact same team they were last year. Making NCAAs will unfortunately be an uphill battle for a Hens squad that will finish Top 15 again. Case Western possibly saved their season with two come from behind wins against Trinity TX and Kenyon. Now they will will need to make the semifinals of the UAA tournament to have a chance at NCAAs. Johns Hopkins has had a couple of unconvincing wins against Bates and W&L. We know their regular season results can’t be taken all that seriously so I’m anxious to see if they can qualify for their fourth consecutive Elite 8. MIT has looked impressive early against some less talented competition. They haven’t been able to beat the top NESCAC teams in years past but that could change this year. Tufts played some good matches out in California, but what they do in the NESCAC season will determine their eventual fate.They should consider a Top 5 finish in the NESCAC a victory. W&L should win their conference and can beat most 30-40 teams, but shouldn’t pose a real threat against the country’s top teams. Redlands started hot and peaked at #8 with a win over conference rival Pomona-Pitzer. However, they have followed that up with three close losses to NESCAC teams which is crushing to their postseason hopes. DePauw has played well early in the season and pushed Wash U recently. With Kenyon being vulnerable this year, the Tigers could make a run at the conference.
The Pleasant Surprises
Whitman had a tough loss to Case, but I have them in this category due to a nice string of early season wins. They peaked at an ITA ranking of #8 after a finish outside the top 20 last season. Sewanee has moved up nearly 15 spots in the ITA rankings from where they finished last year. The Tigers should set their sights on a Sweet 16 performance and Top 25 finish, which would be good milestones for an improving program. Tyler lost their coach before the season started but have had some good wins, including a drubbing of perennial Top 12 team Kenyon. The Pats also played Amherst close. They should win their conference and this is a talented team that can make some noise in NCAAs. Kalamazoo, despite a recent loss to TCNJ, looks like they could put together their first top 25 season in a while. For people who care about D3 tennis history, it’s refreshing to see Kalamazoo relevant once again. NYU, a team that is usually overshadowed by their UAA peers, has some excellent tennis players this season to go with their top-ranked Twitter account. The Violets look to have an outside shot at 5th in the UAA. Colby is a team on the rise led by their 2nd year head coach Jason Cohen. The Mules will be a team to watch in the coming years and they have put together some strong play in 2017. Southwestern came out of nowhere and stole the bloggers’ attention by giving UT-Tyler all they can handle. Excellent job by Coach Billy Porter and this team looks like they will get a signature win in the very near future.
Forgettable Half of the Season
Trinity TX looks to be headed for their second consecutive finish outside the Top 14 after six consecutive seasons inside the Top 10. The Tigers have some time to turn things around and get back to their old ways. Kenyon has played a bunch of close matches so far but have yet to get a Top 30 win. Thielke’s men are having their weakest season in the past decade but they could still be dangerous late in the season. They haven’t made six of the past nine Elite 8s by accident. Swarthmore had high expectations this season but early season losses to ASouth rivals didn’t do them any good. Their conference championship is still within reach but they would need to really turn things around to beat Hopkins. Bates battled valiantly against just about everyone as they normally do, they just haven’t managed to get a good win on their resume. They are very close to the Business as Usual category, but upcoming matches against Colby and Tufts will define their season. Brandeis had very high expectations coming into this season with several bloggers projecting a Top 25 performance. The Judges will have the UAA tournament to make a statement, but I can’t imagine they’ve performed how they’ve wanted. Stevens has slipped after a program best year in 2017. They were hit hard by graduations and have not recovered this season. Whitewater finished a program best #17 last year and look to be in serious danger of being unranked this year. The Warhawks were hit by graduations and had some unfortunate injuries this season.
OK, thanks. To be clear, I was not arguing that Williams should be higher – I agree that they have a lot to prove. I picked them only because they were the one “Something to Prove” school that had highly ranked common opponents with Wash U.
I still think you are giving too much of the benefit of the doubt to Wash U, but time will tell.
I’m surprised you put Wash U in the “Contenders” category instead of the “Something to Prove” category. You have Williams in “Something to Prove” (which I agree with) but Wash U beat P-P by less than Williams did and lost to Chicago by more than Williams did. Why does Wash U merit that much deference?
This is an excellent question and I will do my best to justify my choice. First of all, I absolutely think you can make a good argument for having Wash U in “Something to Prove,” which you did. I’m not going to say they definitely shouldn’t be there, but my justification for calling them a contender is as follows:
Wash U gets the benefit of the doubt because they are Wash U. This is the same program that made six consecutive Final 4s (’08-’13), has finished in the top 5 in the country for the past six seasons and has made the UAA Final ten consecutive years. They have a lot of clout with me because I have seen them down and out so many times only for them to come back and surprise me. You are welcome to look at comparative scores of regular season results all you want, but these guys are contenders because they show up in the post-season every year. They got smoked by Chicago during the regular season last year only to come back and beat them in the UAA semifinal. So in my mind, they are extremely proven as a program and really don’t have anything to prove like the other three teams in that category. I have a tendency to favor teams that are historically consistent and that’s exactly what’s happening here.
Williams is also an excellent program, but frankly they haven’t done all that much since 2013. Dan Greenberg did an amazing job of developing those seniors that won the ’13 title, but they have not been a good top 10 team since those guys graduated. I want to see them beat multiple top NESCAC teams this year.