Fall ITA Nationals technically start in 40 minutes with the play-in matchup of Hewlin (Whitman) and Krull (Trinity TX), so this preview kind of needs to go out. I’m getting real nervous here writing this paragraph because I’m scared the commenters will behead me and burn me at the stake if this goes out at 11:01. But this is the life of a blogger, the pressure of making deadlines. Anyways, Fall Nationals will be a treat. There’s always someone different winning every year (honestly, take a look). The defending champion from last year is not even in the draw. Neither is the champion from two years ago. Yet, we are here with 9 outstanding players who already have accomplished All-American status this year. Let’s go through the players as every one of our writers gives a bio for the players in his region. That’s right, a joint preview. Surprise!
Singles Draw:
Doubles Draw
Alex Ruderman, Emory
Probably one of my favorite players in the nation. Ruderman went from a fairly weak 2 his sophomore year to a top 10 #1 singles player the next year. If he takes a similar jump this year, you might as well consider him for the best player in the nation (move over, Solimano). If you didn’t know already, Alex doesn’t really do that whole “missing” thing. I don’t remember the last time I’ve seen Ruderman been unable to finish a match. Remember last year when Ruderman took out Razumovsky of Kenyon in a three setter after already playing two matches that weekend? Yea, that’s the kind of fitness we’re talking about. Neither his forehand nor backhand really show many weaknesses, and he’s able to attack when needed. Personally, I believe Ruderman is the favorite in this tournament. He’s got the winning attitude… now all he needs to do is win.
Odds to Win: 3 to 1
Nicholas Chua, Chicago
By far the biggest wildcard of the tournament. Chua completed an impressive run at the Indy Regional knocking off four Wash U Bears (Chu, Putterman, Wu, and Kratky) to win the title. I personally was impressed with his big game particularly his backhand. It’s hard to say how good Chua really is, but he has the faith from his coach (see interview with Coach Tee). I think it’s a bit unfortunate that he got the toughest draw with the number one seed Ruderman in the first round. I have faith in the freshman to bounce back after a three set loss to Ruderman to possibly win the backdraw of this tourney. Like I said though, he is a complete wildcard and could surprise Ruderman. Being a freshman will either be a huge positive in that he doesn’t realize how important a moment it is or he will be way too nervous to make an impact. His talent level is undoubted.
Odds to Win: 18 to 1
Steven Chen, Wesleyan
Chen gets the bid the Small College Nationals in place of the man who bested him in the New England Finals. Welp, Amherst’s silly scheduling conflicts are Wesleyan’s gain! The Cardinal freshman will be one of three frosh in the draw, and they are all players to watch. The argument that Chen got a favorable matchup because he doesn’t have Ruderman or Buxbaum in the 1st round doesn’t really hold water. All these guys are tough outs, and if I remember correctly a guy from the lower ½ of the Stags lineup did pretty well at this event last year. We haven’t seen much of Chen yet, and I was just lamenting in my New England ITA recap that I was anxious for more. Well, I won’t have to wait long! There is little better as a test than these ITA tournaments, and Small College Nationals should really up the anti. Chen will go into his 1st round match as an underdog, and then has a likely 2nd round match with fellow freshman phenom Nicholas Chua. If Chen can win either of these first two matches, Coach Fried and the east coast Cardinal faithful should be very pleased. I’d put Chen’s likely range between 5th and 8th, but one good 1st round match and Steven will make me look stupid. I hope he does…
Odds to win: 33-1
Glenn Hull, CMS
I was honestly very impressed with the way Hull played during the West ITA. He has a big game and on the right day could beat any player in the nation (may I direct your attention to his successive wins against Cardenas, Wood, and Marino ranked #14, #2, #7 in the nation respectively). My only critique of Hull’s game is that he can be a little bit streaky, with potential for really high and relatively low levels play. His first round matchup with the runner up at the New England ITA will be a tough opponent, but one that might allow him to get his feet underneath him and work his way into the tournament and fight through the nerves.
Odds to win: 11-1
Matthew Heinrich, Stevens
The winner of the Northeast ITA has represented well over the past few years, but that could also be due to the fact that Loutsenko was one of the best players in the country. The Mattgic Man (totally related note: we should start calling Foran “El Diablo”, it’s a perfect pairing) looks to take over Loutsenko’s Northeast crown and I think he will do his region proud. He has a tough first round matchup with the winner of the play-in (which based on our predictions will be Krull), but it’s also a winnable match. As you can see below, all of us think that Krull is very underseeded. Although this is the Ducks first trip to Small College Nationals in recent memory, Heinrich won’t be satisfied with a 1-2 singles weekend, no matter if he ends up in 7th, 6th, or 4th. I see Heinrich pushing Krull to a tough 3-sets, but eventually falling to the Tiger in round-1. C’mon Matty, prove me wrong! Heinrich is also playing in the doubles (along with almost ½ the draw) which could definitely affect fatigue levels as we progress through the weekend. Obviously all of these guys are good enough to win the whole thing, but I put Heinrich’s most likely range of finish from 3rd to 6th.
Odds to win: 15-1
Krull, Trinity TX
Krull came up huge to win the Southwestern ITA, his closest match the whole tournament was a 6-3, 6-2 victory over his teammate Aaron Skinner. He is a recent transfer from Xavier where he played 4 singles and did fairly well, anyway he is clearly the real deal in DIII tennis. I don’t think he will be able to breeze through the competition as he did in the Texas ITA, everyone who has made it this far has made it through the ringer that is the Regional ITA and picked up a lot of match toughness along the way. That being said, Krull has a fairly good chance at the title. His first match is against Matthew Heinrich from Stevens, who won’t be an easy opponent but I am predicting a straight set victory from Krull along the lines of 6-3 7-5 (assuming he wins the match against Hewlin to qualify.)
Odds to win: 17-2
Hewlin, Whitman
Honestly, if Hewlin is able to make it past the bonus round against Krull, I seriously like his chances. I’m just a little skeptical that he can do it. Not only is this his first fall nationals appearance but he made his way through a (relatively weak) draw almost entirely dominated by his own teammates, which can definitely take the pressure off. I predict that his nerves will get the best of Hewlin and he goes down to Krull in straights. But since Krull is a D1 transfer, I really want to see Hewlin take him down for the glory of D3, maybe it’s petty but I’m sticking to it.
Odds to win: 40-1
Motasem Al-Houni, Gustavus
The winner of the Gustavus regional typically is the weakest player in the draw. I don’t think this year is much different. The elder Al-Houni was a great player last year for the Gusties, but he also played anywhere from 4-6 singles. I am sure he put in a lot of work this summer to get better, but I expect Buxbaum to be too much for him. It won’t get any easier for him in the backdraw as he would play the loser of Henrich vs. Krull/Hewlin. The good news is he will have a fighter’s chance in the doubles draw because Gustavus is known for solid doubles. If Al-Houni can pull a 7th place finish in singles, I think he should be happy.
Odds to Win: 35 to 1
Michael Buxbaum, Hopkins
This kid Buxbaum is more than meets the eye. He doesn’t look super athletic, but he has sneaky quickness that gets him to a ton of balls that I didn’t see him getting to before I ever saw him play. His net play, as seen by his doubles success, is top notch. Buxbaum can finish the points from behind the baseline or at the net, giving him a dual threat that can strike fear in any opponent. One of the underrated parts of Michael’s game is his mental toughness. Rarely do you see him steamrolled in a match (maybe just once or twice) and he seems to be able to fight through disappointing sets with ease. In the ITA final, he was down to Alla 5-2 in the first and pulled it out with huge serving in the tiebreaker for a 7-0 win. After losing the second, he came back in the third and won that set 6-4. Remember, he was playing against a top 10 player from last year. Not to mention, the kid is only a sophomore and clearly improving. Now, being that this is his first Fall Nationals, it’ll admittedly be tough for him to go the distance. However, if he can somehow get past his potential matchup with Krull, I’d give him more than a fighting chance.
Odds to win: 9-2
The Bloggers Predictions
| D3AS | D3Central | D3NE | D3WestTennis | D3Regional | |
| 1 | Ruderman, Emory | Krull, Trinity TX | Ruderman, Emory | Buxbaum, Hopkins | Buxbaum, Hopkins |
| 2 | Krull, Trinity TX | Ruderman, Emory | Buxbaum, Hopkins | Ruderman, Emory | Ruderman, Emory |
| 3 | Buxbaum, Hopkins | Buxbaum, Hopkins | Krull, Trinity TX | Hull, CMS | Heinrich, Stevens |
| 4 | Hull, CMS | Hull, CMS | Hull, CMS | Krull, Trinity TX | Chen, Wesleyan |
| 5 | Chua, Chicago | Heinrich, Stevens | Chua, Chicago | Chua, Chicago | Chua, Chicago |
| 6 | Heinrich, Stevens | Chua, Chicago | Heinrich, Stevens | Heinrich, Stevens | Krull, Trinity TX |
| 7 | Chen, Wesleyan | Chen, Wesleyan | Chen, Wesleyan | Chen, Wesleyan | Hull, CMS |
| 8 | Al-Houni, GAC | Al-Houni, GAC | Al-Houni, GAC | Al-Houni, GAC | Al-Houni, GAC |
| 9 | Hewlin, Whitman | Hewlin, Whitman | Hewlin, Whitman | Hewlin, Whitman | Hewlin, Whitman |
Alright folks, that’s all from us. Enjoy the tennis this week!!
BONUS:
D3NE Doubles Picks – 1) Bates 2) Hopkins 3) Trinity
D3West Doubles Picks – 1) Bates 2) Hop 3) Trinity
D3AS – 1) Hopkins 2) Emory 3) Bates