Deja Vu, Emory vs. Hopkins

One would think that since the best two teams in my region are playing tomorrow, I’d get this preview out earlier.  Well, that’s not the case, but I can only really blame my very limited schedule these days.  I was trying to think of a different way to do this preview, but I’m really coming up blank for some reason (maybe its because I’m beat from work).  Good thing is, everyone seems to like the basic format that we normally use so I’m probably gonna go with that.  Getting to the match, this is really the biggest match of the weekend.  Emory has a shot to get back in the top 5 in the nation, where I think they belong.  However, I think that Hopkins also belongs in the top 5, which means this is going to be a pretty crazy match.  I’d like to note that this match will also be played on Emory’s home courts, whether that be inside or outside, which is obviously a pretty big advantage for the Eagles.  I actually think that this may be a deciding factor in the outcome of this match.  I’ll get to the matchups in a bit, but I’d also like to give you an outline of what happened last time so you remember correctly.

Doubles

Buxbaum/Walsh (JHU) def. Wagner/Mosetick, 8-6

Brown/Lim (JHU) def. Issacs/Szczurek (EU), 8-2

Garcia/Joachim (JHU) def. Ruderman/Halpern (EU), 8-3

Singles

Ruderman (EU) def. Buxbaum (JHU), 3-6, 6-3, 6-4

Brown (JHU) def. Mosetick (EU), 6-2, 6-3

Halpern (EU) def. Hwang (JHU), 6-7, 7-5, 6-4

Dubin (JHU) def. Szczurek (EU), 6-2, 3-6, 6-3

Wagner (EU) def. Lim (JHU), 6-3, 6-2

Weissler (JHU) def. Adams (EU) 3-6, 6-1, 1-0?

There are a few takeaways from this previous result that I’d like to go over before making my predictions.  First off, take a look at what has changed.  Emory is throwing a brand new #2 team out there, one that had some pretty good success last year with Issacs/Bajoria.  In addition, two players have been totally dropped from the doubles lineup (Szczurek and Mosetick).  Basically, the whole doubles look has changed for Emory and this is a good thing considering they got swept last time out there.  Does it mean success? We’ll see.  For Hopkins, nothing has changed on the doubles side.  In terms of singles, we’re seeing some changes on both sides.  Starting with Emory, they’ve officially moved Halpern back up to #2, where I think he belongs.  This means Mosetick can move back to his more comfortable position at #3 where he is now one of the best players in the nation.  Also, Wagner has been moved up to #4, which I again believe is a great move for the Eagles.  Wagner has always been a tough out wherever he plays and it looks like he is hitting his stride as well.  This also places Szczurek at #5, where he presents matchup problems for some of our usual #5s.  For Hopkins, Hwang and Brown have switched spots in the lineup, with Brown being featured at #3.  This is big because this is the same exact switch the Eagles did.  Could this have been a counter move for this match?  It’s possible, but I don’t want to say that’s true.  I think it’s just an interesting move and Hwang has been playing well anyways, so it is definitely valid.  Also, it looks like Lim has been moved down to #6, again creating nightmare matchups for the normal grinders of #6 singles, and Nicholas Garcia has been moved up to #5.  Weissler seems to have dropped off the singles lineup.  For those of you that think this match will be a carbon copy of the Indoor Nationals match, you should all think again.  Another big factor is that this should be played outdoors, which is favorably suited for the gamestyles of the Eagles.  Do you all see where I am going with this?  Hopefully you’re not too bored already, but I’m finally going to get to my predictions.  I’m a big fan of both of these teams and I think they are both poised for great things this year.  I’m expecting a hell of a match.

Let’s get down to business, matchup by matchup:

#1 Doubles, Buxbaum/Walsh vs. Ruderman/Wagner – This presents a little bit of a different feel for the Eagles.  I also think this is the Eagles best chance to win at the moment.  I mentioned in the Emory recap that Emory seems to play a different style of doubles, relying on their general talent and their baseline games.  While I don’t think this is a recipe for success for everyone, Emory has done it very well over the years.  Buxbaum/Walsh have been struggling a bit recently, which is something that we expect from freshmen who aren’t used to the consistent quality of play they see, especially at a #1 doubles spot.  I think the baseline game of Ruderman/Wagner will be strong and the veteran leadership will have the Eagles out on top here. 8-5 Emory.

#2 Doubles, Brown/Lim vs. Bajoria/Issacs – I LOVE the fact that Bajoria is back in the doubles lineup.  Blessed with a monstrous forehand, he represents a nice contrast from Issacs and the two have some good chemistry together.  While I do like the move, I like the tandem of Brown/Lim much better.  When we talk about team chemistry, there really is nowhere to look but these two.  They’ve been playing since their freshman year and had a great stint at #1 doubles last year.  Lim loves taking over the net and plays fearlessly up there, while Brown is more of the steady rock.  Both guys get pumped up and this is the hype-man team for Hopkins.  Lucky for them, they have the matchup advantage as well.  Look for Brown/Lim to get pumped up and be able to take this one fairly easily. 8-2 Hopkins.

#3 Doubles, Garcia/Joachim vs. Halpern/Lee – When I was able to watch the Halpern/Lee team last week, I must say I came away fairly unimpressed.  I was expecting more of a doubles specialist in Lee, but what I really saw was a solid baseliner who happened to have adequate volleys.  I didn’t really see a ton of over-the-top doubles instinct there, which is what I was hoping for.  I have serious doubts about this team and it doesn’t help that they play a fundamentally sound doubles team in Joachim/Garcia.  When I talk about a true doubles specialist, Joachim jumps to my mind as someone with great technique on both his volleys and overheads.  In general, the dude covers the net with great prowess.  I think the true doubles team of Garcia/Joachim will take this one.  8-4 Hopkins, 2-1 Hopkins after Doubles.

You’ll see that this is already a different prediction from the last match they played.  If you remember the last time, it seemed like Emory had a fighting chance in the match despite getting swept.  This time, I don’t think that’ll happen and now they’re on their home courts.  Singles time!

#1 Singles, Buxbaum vs. Ruderman – I sang the praises of Ruderman last week and that was due to his excellent performance.  Buxbaum deserves some praise as well, as he’s knocked off Alla from the ASouth throne with his recent 6-1, 6-4 win over the Fall Champ.  These are two guys that are fiiiiiiiiiiiiire right now and this is going to be a hell of a match.  This one will be a battle no doubt about it, but I think that Ruderman’s grinding style and his overall momentum right now will propel him to victory.  Buxbaum is a great player, but my gut tells me to go with the experience here.  6-3, 4-6, 6-1 Emory.

#2 Singles, Hwang vs. Halpern – Ah, a rematch of our #3 singles match from Indoor Nationals!  Taking a look back at that one, you’ll remember that Hwang was serving for the match there at 5-3 in the second set.  Halpern then came back and won four straight in the second set, and eventually won the 3^rd.  While I do like both of these players, I think Halpern has stuck out to me as someone on the way up.  He notoriously catches fire at the end of the year (seriously, look at last year too) and I think this is the point where he starts playing as the Halpern we really know.  Let’s also mention that Hwang’s game is more suited for an indoor play, while Halpern is more of an outdoor player in my eyes.  This will be a fun one, but I don’t think that there will be any doubt.  6-4, 6-3, Emory.

#3 Singles, Brown vs. Mosetick – Another rematch from Indoors!  Unlike the previous rematch, this one doesn’t bode as well for Emory.  Brown is a guy who basically does all the thing Mosetick does, but I feel like he does it with a little more force.  Whether that be because of build or other factors, that’s simply the truth.  Mosetick is a strong #3, but Brown might be the strongest #3 out there.  I also notoriously don’t like to pick sweeps within the top 3 singles spots because quite frankly, I don’t think it happens too often.  Unless it’s CMS.  But this isn’t, so I have to go with the captain and strong player in Brown.  6-2, 6-2, Hopkins.

#4 Singles, Dubin vs. Wagner – This is the matchup I wanted to see last time out there! I’ve always been a big fan of Wagner throughout this college years.  However, Dubin is slowly but surely making a case that he is the best #4 in the nation.  Dubin is a giant amongst the DIII landscape, and he comes with a big serve and a pretty big groundstroke game.  This year, Dubin has beaten the following players: Rezvin, Szczurek, Fojitasek, Krasner, Feldman, and Kirkov.  The win that really stands out to me is the recent win against Kirkov.  However, when you look at Wagner’s record, you see some great results as well.  He’s beaten Lim, Haas, Burchett, Entwistle, Kratky, Reinbold, Mountfield, Wolstencroft, and Rosensteel all this year.  That’s a great lineup.  Now that I see these stats, I’m nominating this match as our official SWING MATCH.  This match has me extremely excited and I would even expect the match to come down to this line.  When in doubt, I always go with the experience.  7-6, 5-7, 6-4 Emory.

#5 Singles, Garcia vs. Szczurek – When I saw that Garcia was in the singles lineup last week, I definitely had my doubts.  He had previously not been in the lineup at all and all of a sudden he was played over Lim.  Then, he went out and brought Zheng to 3 sets and that basically solidified the fact that he belonged.  Garcia is more of your basic baseliner, hitting with spin and taking his opportunities.  On the other side of the court is someone who I have been notoriously and sometimes a bit harsh on.  Szczurek has played very well so far this year, as every single one of his losses have been close and to quality players.  He has a different style where he really goes for a penetrating flat ball which sometimes catches opponents off guard.  I think this works well for him in this matchup as Garcia’s regular rally-ball should fall right into his wheelhouse.  I like the lefty here.  6-4, 6-1 Emory.

#6 Singles, Lim vs. Adams – Lim at #6 is just preposterous! I had projected Lim to be as high as #3 in the lineup this year for Hopkins.  The fact that he’s playing at #6 is a testament to where this team is right now and how far they’ve come.  They now have the benefit of having one of their most experienced and most talented players down at the #6 hole in the lineup, almost guaranteeing wins.  Although this is not a guarantee at all, as Adams is an extremely tough player, there is no way I go against Lim here.  Lim always seems to bring it against the Eagles, I expect nothing less in this one.  I like Hopkins here with probably their only “easy” win of the match.  6-3, 6-3 Hopkins.

Overall, that makes it 5-4 Emory! The matches to watch are obviously the #1 and #4 matches in singles.  You’ll notice that those matches in particular pit freshmen against much more experienced veterans.  That doesn’t bode well for Hopkins despite the way their season has played out this year.  However, Hopkins has great opportunities, especially in doubles, to flip the script and come out with a sweep.  They could also surprise me and potentially take the #2 or #5 match with a great performance from Hwang or Garcia.  This will be an epic, or at least I hope.  Hopefully we will get some updates from the fairly inconsistent Emory Men’s Tennis Twitter this weekend.  One can hope.  D3ASouth, out.