10. Can Wash U do it again? What these guys do every year is truly remarkable to me and 2012 was the icing on the cake. The 2013 Bears enter the season having been to 5 consecutive final 4s, however they haven’t been to a final since winning it in 2008. You’ve got three seniors leading the way along with freshman talent and top notch coaching, so I ask myself – why can’t be it be 6 final 4s in a row? They may not posses the talent of Emory or CMS, but this team is a model of consistency and they are the definition of knowing how to win, no matter who they have on the court. The end of their season last year taught me never to doubt them, so even if they fly into NCAAs under the radar, expect to see them get to the semifinals.
9. Is Bowdoin a one hit wonder? The closest comp for Bowdoin’s 2012 season is Carnegie Mellon’s 2010 season. You have a team typically in the 12-15 range all of the sudden turn into a legitimate top 8 team with several impressive wins throughout the season. The rosters of these two didn’t change that dramatically from one year to the next, but their level magically went up. Everyone knows that CMU has plunged since their lone Elite 8 run, so the question is what will happen to the hot Bowdoin team that we saw at the end of last season. With Midd looking like a top 10 squad and Bates continuing to improve, Bowdoin will most certainly be tested in conference play. If they can put together another top 8 season, I’ll be very impressed.
8. Can Hopkins learn how to play doubles? The results from last fall indicate that JHU has picked up their level in doubles quite a bit, but I won’t believe they are for real until they prove it in several dual matches. Doubles was the achilles heel for the incredibly talented 2012 Hopkins squad, and after graduating their #1 team, it’s possible things can go from bad to worse. However, we know where their focus was in the off-season, and if Hopkins can bring top 5 level doubles this year, they can most definitely compete for a national title since they have arguably the best singles lineup in the country. They will be tested 3 times at Indoors in doubles, so we will see how they do.
7. Kenyon – overrated or underrated? I’ve heard a lot of mixed feelings on Kenyon since their run to the final last year. On one side, you have a team that lost to CLU and NCW last year, played great doubles against CMS and then beat the #15 team in the country in the semifinals. Just looking at pure results, one may not think that this team is a true contender in 2013. However, I love their intangibles and that’s why they are one of my top 3 favorites to win it all this year. Kenyon has outstanding coaching, good leadership with their entire 2012 team coming back, and talented youth. This team is rock solid and I know they want the national title badly after falling short last season.
6. Can Amherst rebound from last year and the fall? Amherst’s last 3 competitive D3 matches have not been kind to them. For the most part, this team rolled through 2012 looking like they would crush everyone on their way to the national title. Then all of the sudden the unstoppable train was derailed and they find themselves at #19 in the country heading into the spring. What went wrong is a tough question to answer, but we do know that this team has a ton of talent and may be overlooked by some heading into 2013 due to spotlight being on their neighbors in Williamstown. Herst is still a well coached national power with all the tools necessary to win another national title. Just because they lost a couple matches, doesn’t mean they won’t be dangerous in May.
5. The West is becoming less intriguing. Typically, I spend a lot of time focused on California, but this year the outlook is grim. To begin, you have a Redlands team that hasn’t done much in a few years and Cal Lu who doesn’t have the depth to be a top 8 team. The next step up seems to be Pomona-Pitzer, but they were hit with a couple of graduations, and their status as a top 12 team is in jeopardy. Santa Cruz slipped slightly last year and there are rumors that their top player may not be around this spring, which would be a crippling blow to a proud program that I expect will continue to slip. And finally, you have CMS with their monster lineup and SEC transfer, yet it seems no one I’ve talked to thinks they can win the national title because they are no longer taken seriously after so many NCAA debacles.
4. The continued rise of Gustavus, Bates and Case? These three programs made great strides in 2012 and hope to continue the trend this year. While there likely isn’t room for all three in the top 15 this year, I expect at least one to be there. All these teams have taken different paths to success, but they all have a long way to go before they are considered serious contenders and 2013 will play a big part in their reputation. GAC will have home court at Indoors as usual and a great shot to knock off what seem to be some vulnerable teams. Case plays a top-notch schedule and will compete in a very tough UAA this year. Bates may have the toughest road to stardom, as the NESCAC looks to be absolutely loaded this year. I look forward to following the progress of these up-and-coming teams.
3. Can a young Emory team three-peat at Indoors? The defending national champions lose three starters but are looking to three-peat at Indoors. They will face stiff competition in Kenyon and Hopkins, whom they beat a combined 5 times in 2012. Emory has an incredible streak of 12 consecutive finishes in the top 5, but the truth is this looks to be their most vulnerable team since I’ve been around. If that streak is going to be broken, it could be this year especially with the depth in D3. Everything starts at Indoors where they have historically been outstanding, and they get respect from me and the D3 community just because of who they are. I’m sure they savored their title quite a bit, but it’s a new season and this is a very young team with a lot to prove.
2. The pressure is on Midd. The biggest disappointment of last season has returned with two newcomers who look to become part of a loaded lineup that should compete with the NESCAC’s best. The thing that worries me is that I had them pegged at 7 last pre-season and they didn’t perform anywhere near that level at any point during the season. This year’s team is better than last year’s team, and expectations are there to finish top 8 in the country. Until Midd proves that they are a legitimate contender with a win over a NESCAC rival, my guess is that they won’t truly be taken seriously by the rest of the nation. Of any team, the Panthers have by far the most pressure on them, because they haven’t been the same since 2010 and now the necessary talent is definitely there.
1. Is this Williams year? The Ephs are my pick, and most people’s pick, to win the 2013 national title, taking them back to the winner’s circle for the first time in over a decade. This team has a core of 4 seniors and a junior who have been to back-to-back Final 4s and played some incredibly intense matches. Couple that with an outstanding freshman class and a coach who now has three seasons under his belt, and you’ve got everything you need to win a title. With the exception of maybe Kenyon, I don’t see anyone who could match Williams desire to win and this will take you a very long way. They were worn out in 2011 and narrowly missed the final last year, but I think that this is their year and its their title to lose.