Well, well, well. I’ve come out of hiding to provide my thoughts on where things stand in the central region for NCAA singles qualification. While a lot happened, of course, in the UAA, there really wasn’t much action elsewhere in the central region. Anyway, I did my best to research all viable qualifiers thoroughly. Let’s get to it.
April 13 ITA Regional Rankings
April 20 NCAA Regional Rankings
April 26 D3Midwest Regional Rankings
1. Mohanad Alhouni (Gustavus Adolphus)
Key In-Region Wins: Brady Anderson (Coe), Herman Abban (Carthage), Nick Chua (Chicago), Dan Rodefeld (DePauw)
Key In-Region Losses: None!
Key Out of Region Wins: Arthur Fagundes (UT-Tyler), Chas Mayer (Trinity TX), Jake Yasgoor (Pomona), Zach Hewlin (Whitman), Michael Rozenvasser (Carnegie), Nikolai Parodi (CMS)
Summary: I’ve been impressed with Mohanad’s results this year. Last year, it was obvious that he had the ability to beat top players, but on a bad day, he could lose to anyone. This season, he has a whopping 0 in-region losses, and he cruised past several of the region’s best players in straight sets. In more ways than one, Mohanad has matured a lot, even in the past few months, and I think a lot of credit should be given to head coach Tommy Valentini.
2. Branden Metzler (Kalamazoo)
Key In-Region Wins: Brady Anderson (Coe), Kevin Brown (Denison), Justin Ancona (Wheaton)
Key In-Region Losses: David Liu (Chicago)
Key Out of Region Wins: Umberto Setter (NYU)
Summary: When I first saw that Metzler was second in the region and not first, I was a little confused. But, there are two good reasons why. First, Metzler has an in-region loss to Chicago’s David Liu. While I understand that it was in the fall, it’s still a loss. Also, Metzler just hasn’t played as tough of opponents as a whole. This is not to take away from B-Metz’s success this season. I think he is one of the favorites to win NCAAs. But, it’s clear that he is the #2 player in the region.
3. Brady Anderson (Coe)
Key In-Region Wins: David Liu (Chicago, which gives an indirect over Nick Chua since Chua was playing #2 that match), Herman Abban (Carthage), Dan Rodefeld (DePauw)
Key In-Region Losses: Mohanad Alhouni (Gustavus), Justin Ancona (Wheaton), Branden Metzler (Kalamazoo), Patrick Whaling (Gustavus)
Key Out of Region Wins: None
Summary: This is where things get extremely tricky. You can make an argument for any order with the 3-7 spots, but I think given Anderson’s in-region wins over 3 of the top 8 players in the region, he should take the 3 spot. Losses to B-Metz and Alhouni (and also Whaling of Gustavus) put him below them, but things get tricky when considering his straight set loss to Ancona, who I have tapped 7th in the region. Overall, though, I think his wins overshadow the one loss.
4. Nick Chua (Chicago)
Key In-Region Wins: Johnny Wu (Wash U, Twice)
Key In-Region Losses: Johnny Wu (Wash U, Once), Dan Rodefeld (DePauw), Mohanad Alhouni (Gustavus), Indirect to Brady Anderson (see above)
Key Out of Region Wins: Jonathan Jemison (Emory), Carl Reid (Colby), Daniel Levine (CMU, which gives him an indirect over Rozenvasser since Rozenvasser was playing #2 that match),
Summary: Chua’s in-region sample size is a lot smaller than others. While he has a loss to Dan Rodefeld, who I tabbed at 8 in the region, he has two wins over Wu, and a bunch of very good out of region wins, so I think much like Anderson’s loss to Ancona, the good overshadows the bad for Chua.
5. Johnny Wu (Wash U)
Key In-Region Wins: Nick Chua (Chicago, Once), Dan Rodefeld (DePauw)
Key In-Region Losses: Nick Chua (Chicago, Twice), David Liu (Chicago)
Key Out of Region Wins: Kai Yuen Leung (Skidmore)
Summary: Another tough one because of a small sample size. Johnny Wu’s big win against Dan Rodefeld should be enough to qualify him for NCAAs. His schedule is extremely tough, and he has a good win over Chua to back up his resume (despite two losses to the Chicago #1). While an argument might be made that Abban and Ancona could be above Chua and Wu, Abban’s and Ancona’s schedules are just so much weaker.
6. Herman Abban (Carthage)
Key In-Region Wins: Justin Ancona (Wheaton)
Key In-Region Losses: Brady Anderson (Coe), Mohanad Alhouni (Gustavus)
Key Out of Region Wins: None
Summary: With a poor strength of schedule, I can’t give the benefit of the doubt to Abban. He’s beaten almost everyone he’s played, but his only key win is against Ancona. Otherwise, he’s lost to both Anderson and Alhouni, and hasn’t really played any other tough competition.
7. Justin Ancona (Wheaton)
Key In-Region Wins: Brady Anderson (Coe)
Key In-Region Losses: Herman Abban (Carthage), Grant Thompson (UW-Whitewater), Branden Metzler (Kalamazoo)
Key Out of Region Wins: None
Summary: The only thing saving Ancona right now is a win over Brady Anderson. Otherwise, he’s lost every other key in-region match, and the loss to Grant Thompson doesn’t help his case. However, as you will see in a moment, Rodefeld also has a bad loss and not as good of wins, so there shouldn’t be much controversy this year. Ancona should rightfully hold the final qualifying spot.
8. Dan Rodefeld (DePauw)
Key In-Region Wins: Nick Chua (Chicago), Titas Bera (Wooster, Once)
Key In-Region Losses: Brady Anderson (Coe), Martin Mora (Wittenberg), Mohanad Alhouni (Gustavus), Johnny Wu (Wash U), Titas Bera (Once)
Key Out of Region Wins: None
Summary: Rodefeld is in an unfortunate situation. He’s come extremely close to beating some top players in the region, but also has a recent rough superbreaker loss to an unranked player. Given that Ancona’s win over Anderson looks better than Rodefeld’s win over Chua, and Ancona’s loss to Thompson doesn’t look as bad as Rodefeld’s loss to Mora, Rodefeld is the first one out. Unfortunately, he has no big out of region wins, so I see no chance he receives one of the at-large bids. He is also the top-ranked NCAC player, so this weekend’s conference tournament won’t build up his resume.
How all 8 can qualify
There is only one way that each of these players qualifies for NCAAs, and that is if the committee ranks Chua at 8. Chua has the best out of region resume out of any of these guys, and he would surely receive one of the at-large bids. However, I can’t see any scenario in which Chua is ranked 8th in the region. You can make an argument for 3-6, but 8 is more than a stretch.
When the new set of regional rankings comes out tomorrow, I will write a post with my quick thoughts.
Really enjoy individual articles!! hope more bloggers will do the same analysis