D3ASouth’s Top 10 Thoughts, Rankings, and Scenarios

Well, hello there, readers.  I had heard that there was some type of Division III Tennis going on this weekend and I’m kinda here to check it out.  What’s that?  This was potentially the biggest weekend of DIII Tennis since Indoors?  Got it.  I guess that means the guy who runs this jacked-up blog better give the people an article that they can read for 10 minutes, think about before they go out, and then forget about after a night of partying.  Or at least that’s what I think happens to most of the articles that are put out here.  Either way, I for some reason enjoy doing this so I’m here to do a couple things.  Please see below for the objectives of this article:

Objective #1: I want to give you a better idea of what the top 10 rankings could look like.

Objective #2: I want to give you an alternate idea of what the top 10 rankings could look like.

Objective #3: I want to give you my thoughts on each of the top 10 teams, their seasons, and anything else regarding those teams.  Even if it means I get to talk about what each one of them eat for lunch on Wednesdays.

Objective #4: I want to assert myself as “The Headmaster” of this bumbling blog.

Objective #5: I want to waste some time because I may or may not be hung over.  Last time Central was hung over, he presented that Kenyon/CMU preview that was shorter than the essay on “The Cat in the Hat” you wrote in the first grade.

Got that? Good, because there’s no turning back now.  Once you are caught by the pull of my detailed writing style, you are no longer a free man (or woman. I got you, ladies).  Please note that the below is all SCENARIO WORK.  That means I could be wrong.  I will be presenting you with two different scenarios for you to ponder.  Within the first scenario, I will be providing detailed thoughts on each of the teams.  I will also indicate an X-Factor for each of the teams. The second scenario will be a list and a brief description of why that is a reasonable scenario.

Scenario #1 – The Trinity TX Scenario

I call this scenario the Trinity TX scenario because it justifiably rewards the TU Tigers for having a season in which they lost to none of the teams currently projected to be ranked in the #3-8 world.  This world will be referred to as “The Other #1 Seeds” from here on out.  Please see below.

#1 CMS

Well, this is a no brainer right here.  I’m sad that I can’t write more about CMS because they really aren’t that interesting this year.  They win and they win.  That’s pretty much what they do, unless they’re playing against UCLA.  From the start of this year, one of the 10 burning questions we had for CMS was whether or not they could get over the hump and win a championship.  Problem with that thinking is that we basically have to wait until the playoffs to determine their season.  They’re almost like the Miami Heat right now, where basically their regular season doesn’t mean jack unless they win the whole thing.  They even have a big 3 in Wood, Dorn, and Marino.  As I’m writing this, their #4 player Skylar Butts just beat a top 10 player in Patrick Lipscomb in the Ojai Tournament.  This is a team that arguably would have won the whole thing last year had there not been some crazy circumstances.  I’m sure they are tired of haters saying they are chokers and I’m sure they are tired of not winning championships.  The formula to beating this CMS team is to take a doubles lead and then use your strengths to eek out three points.  That sentence made it sound so simple and it’s actually pretty funny to me.  For CMS, my X-Factor is going to be mental toughness.  We’ve been harping all year that this is the team to beat.  Others have harped that CMS still has yet to prove they can win the big one.  Can these boys stay tough and do what is expected of them this season?

#2 Washington University Bears

Again, this is a no-brainer especially with the recent Amherst loss.  Wash U quietly sits at #2 in the nation as they’ve now won Indoor Nationals as well as the UAA Tournament.  Right now, Wash U is my pick as the most dangerous team to CMS.  That would make sense considering they are #2 in the nation.  What they’ve done this year is pretty amazing considering everyone believed this was going to be a down year for the Bears.  Think about that for a second.  Some people thought this team was going to fall out of the top 10.  They’ve answered that by adding two new freshmen to the singles lineup that are rocks at their positions and shored up their doubles play.  Next time any of you want to doubt Coach Follmer and his boys, you’re going to have to go through me first.  Here’s a fun fact about the Bears dominance this year.  Every single one of their wins has been 6-3 or better.  There hasn’t been one match where I was watching via twitter that I said “WashU has a good chance of losing this match.”  That being said, they lost to CMS 8-1 at the CMS complex and that is something that I’m sure is weighing on the minds of the Bears.  Wash U has clearly proven to us that they can handily beat any of the teams directly below them other than Middlebury and Amherst, who are wild cards at this point.  Wash U has built a team that truly does not have any weaknesses.  They are essentially matchup proof against the rest of the DIII world – to beat them, you’re going to have to flat out be better than them that day.  The Bears have done a great job of following this formula for as long as I can remember and that is mostly why they have avoided any major upsets.  The focus and intangibles are incredible with this team and we know that NCAA’s is their time to shine.  It seems like a foregone conclusion that they will continue their amazing Final 4 streak, but obviously they have to get there.  For the Bears, my X-Factor will be none other than Coach Roger Follmer.  This is basically self-explanatory.  Despite the perceived talent difference between CMS and Wash U, how will Follmer motivate and prepare his players for a potential upset?  How will he ensure that they all stay focused to keep the streak alive?  Follmer is one of the best in the business and if Wash U comes up with an upset that no one saw coming, Coach Follmer will be the main piece of the puzzle.  To end this Wash U paragraph, I’d like to end on a little tidbit on John Carswell, the Bears freshman who has been tearing up DIII Tennis this year.  We often compare him to Watts because of his dominance at #2 and Coach Follmer’s hesitance to play a freshman at #1 singles.  The Guru was trying to find Watts’ 2007 stats but he remembers that Watts breezed through every opponent that year.  Carswell has won every match but has lost sets here and there.  Maybe Carswell isn’t at the level that Watts was back in the day, but he’s a rock solid option anywhere in the lineup for years to come.

#3 Trinity TX Tigers

Before you get all up in arms about my first pick for the #3 ranking, think about something.  Trinity has not lost this year to anyone other than CMS and Wash U.  They beat Case handily and have taken care of the rest of their schedule.  Do I think they are the third best team in the nation?  No, I do not.  However, I do believe there is a scenario (this one) where they could fall into the #3 ITA ranking.  I don’t believe that a team should get penalized for their geographical location, which is what would be happening if we were to drop Trinity down after this weekend.  Trinity is the true wild card in the ITA Rankings because you really could have an argument for them to be in any spot within the top 8.  I think it’s something that the committee should think about instead of just going with the status quo of “they beat them, they beat them so they should be ahead of them” mentality.  This is a team flying under the radar right now because they live in Texas.  Trinity is known for its workmanlike nature and used to be well-known for their doubles play. The Tigers new focus on singles is a step in the right direction, especially considering that it determines 6 of the damn points in a match.  One thing to watch out for – Aaron Skinner, last year’s Fall ITA Winner, is currently playing #4 for TU.  Now, this has something to do with his recent bout with injuries, but that’s still something that should scare some of the top 10 teams.  Paxton Deuel has been a rock at #1 singles with only close losses to Wood, Lipscomb, and Krimbill on his resume.  It will be very interesting to see how far the Tigers have come since the last time we saw them in competitive DIII Action (other than UTT) since March 11th.  They have a knack for being able to beat all of the second tier teams, but the thing is they consistently lose to top-tier teams as well.  TU needs to find that extra gear if/when they make the Elite 8.  We’ve yet to see the Tigers live up to the high billing we always seem to have for them and this might be the year given the fairly similar skill level of the rest of the #1 seeds.  For TU, my X-Factor goes to Greg Haugen.  Haugen has had a decent year at #2/3 singles, where he’s beaten guys like Yasgoor and played close with Cummins and Marino.  Given the uncertainty of doubles for TU, they need to scrap for every point they get against the top 10.  #2 singles seems to be a key to a great team – look no further than CMS and Wash U for examples.  If Haugen can catch fire in the NCAA tournament and establish himself, that’s a point that TU probably doesn’t expect to win most times out there.  Oh, and he also plays #2 doubles too.

#4 Johns Hopkins University

We keep chugging along in the top 10 with none other than the Johns Hopkins Blue Jays.  JHU was a big winner this weekend based off the CMU upset over Emory.  Given their direct win over CMU, they now have a split with Emory this season and a direct win over CMU.  This gives them indirect wins over Middlebury who now has a direct over Amherst.  Essentially, Hopkins can make an argument that none of the above teams have truly beat them (not counting Fall results).  In this scenario, I have them below Trinity because TU can make the same argument and they also haven’t lose to Emory once.  Hopkins is another team that has the stigma that they can’t win when the Big Dance comes around.  This is a fair judgment based on the results they’ve had in the past and I am again sure they are tired of hearing it.  Hopkins has redone their formula this year as well, as they’ve become one of the better doubles teams in the league and in the Top 10.  This all stems from the dynamic freshman duo of Michael Buxbaum and Emerson Walsh, who have held their own against all their opponents this year.  On the singles side, Buxbaum and Dubin have given the lineup a much needed boost as they’ve seen a bit of a drop-off from their juniors Erik Lim and Tanner Brown.  Unfortunately for Hopkins, they strike me as a team that is almost like a poor man’s CMS.  They are strong throughout the lineup and in doubles, with a lot of talent at the top of the singles lineup.  Being a poor man’s CMS isn’t going to get them to beat CMS.  However, they probably have a goal of getting to the Final 4, which right now is very iffy.  The reason why?  My X-Factor, Tanner Brown, has quietly missed the past five matches since the Jays match against Emory.  If you remember from that day, Tanner took a spill on the court against Rafe Mosetick that day and seemed to lose his effectiveness as he lost easily in the second set.  If this is some serious injury, Brown’s loss in both the singles and doubles lineup is massive.  Garcia/Joachim have been manning the #2 spot, but they immediately become a very beatable #2 doubles.  The Jays have been mixing it up at #3 and I assume they will find a good combination soon, but it’s just a big loss.  In addition, Dubin doesn’t strike me as a bonafide #3 and everyone below has to move up.  Without Brown, Hopkins strikes me more as a team ranked in the #8-12 range instead of in the Final 4.  Let’s hope that Brown comes back soon to play in NCAAs, because Hopkins could be a vulnerable one seed if he isn’t.

#5 Carnegie Mellon Tartans

Welcome to the elite, Tartans.  This past weekend’s UAA tournament featured CMU taking out Emory 6-3 as you all know.  We’ve made fun of their doubles play all year as they really struggled coming out of the gate, but this weekend was a glimpse of what they could be if they had a solid doubles performance time in and time out.  With a sweep of Emory and playing fairly tough against Wash U, CMU can now boast that they can potentially get the necessary points for a huge upset.  We all know that the Tartans have one of the strongest singles lineups in the country.  So far, they only have losses to Wash U twice and Hopkins once.  In all of those losses, they either won 2 or 3 singles matches with most of them being close.  On the right day, the Tartans have the ammunition to go toe to toe with any of the top 10 teams in singles outside of CMS.  What makes the Tartan story so great is that this is a team that has really struggled with consistency in recent years.  Can you believe that this team has now missed the NCAA tournament in the past three years?  Funny how things work out with the right players and a good recruiting class.  I think one of the big questions everyone should be asking is “Is this the best doubles we’ve seen from CMU, or are they continuing to improve?”  They only recently started switching teams (they even rotated players in the UAA tournament, which baffled me) and it is totally feasible that they continue to improve.  The #1 team of Heaney-Secord/Duncan was great this weekend and the rest of the characters certainly held their end of the bargain.  CMU has to be thinking to themselves that they have upset potential if they are able to take two doubles matches.  It’s been a great year so far for CMU but it is definitely far from over.  This is a team with only one Elite 8 appearance, so what will it take for them to go further?  The clear X-Factor for the CMU Tartans is Christian Heaney-Secord.  H-S is definitely a strange player to follow.  There are times when he can beat anyone in the nation and there are times like today where he loses to Ross Putterman in a routine two sets.  Christian may hold the key to the Tartans Final 4 path if he becomes the consistent win that the Tartans know he can be.

#6 Emory Eagles

The Eagles come in at #6 after their recent loss to the Tartans this past weekend, but do not count the Eagles out when it comes to the NCAA Tournament.  Despite an up and down year, they’ve still been able to keep a ranking within striking distance or in the top 5, which is obviously an accomplishment.  Emory still has the feel of being an extremely dangerous team despite having lost to Wash U, Hopkins, and CMU in the same year.  D3Tennis mentioned in his thoughts on the top 15 that Emory is always vulnerable to a doubles sweep.  Well, every single one of their DIII losses have come via the doubles sweep.  This was a team that seemed to find their doubles prowess last year with a very similar team and it is a bit discouraging that they are having their struggles now.  The silver lining about that is that they haven’t lost a match where they haven’t gotten swept, but that might be a self-fulfilling prophecy.  It’s still going to take them being knocked out for me to really believe that it happened, but Emory is starting to see some leaks spring up that we haven’t seen from the Eagles in a while.  Good news for Emory is that their singles is still as strong as ever.  They showed that today in their win over Case and showed that by taking Carnegie to the brink before they lost.  This team is very similar to CMU in that they need to have the right day in doubles.  If they do, this team instantly becomes much more dangerous and a team that you don’t want to face.  Another thing we have to start thinking about is whether or not we’ve seen the end of “Emory dominance.”  The DIII Recruiting Classes are getting better and better, which is allowing more teams to start bringing in the recruits that Emory has been able to bring in in recent years.  DIII is becoming more of a coaching oriented sport instead of a talent oriented sport, so this will be a nice test for Coach Browning to continue to prove his mettle against the best.  For this year, we can’t really count the Eagles out of the national title conversation just yet.  In the NCAA tournament, I believe the Eagles X-Factor to be none other than Ian Wagner.  Wagner has had a rough go of it lately as he’s lost to both W&L and CMU.  This is coming from a guy who used to be one of the best #3/4 guys in the nation so this is a bit surprising.  Wagner also mans the #1 doubles spot where he has a ton of experience and makes up half of Emory’s best team by far.  Wagner needs to keep his head during this little mini-slump and get back to the guy that could consistently pick up two wins against some of the best teams.  If that happens, the landscape for Emory changes a lot throughout the tournament.

#7 Middlebury Panthers

I already hear the uprising of Panthers fans as I put this team at #7 in the nation after this weekend, but fact of the matter is they have to be below Emory.  It was a tough situation but a loss is a loss, so the Panthers sit at #7 after the Amherst win that almost went under the radar today.  The Panthers are actually the team that I believe has the second best chance to beat CMS and of course the reason is Coach Hansen.  Hansen knows how to coach doubles, which we know.  However, the Panthers have to get to that point first and they are definitely vulnerable to losses from any of the other #1 seeds.  Even in today’s Amherst/Midd match, we saw Midd needing a three setter at #2 singles and a tiebreaker at #3 doubles to pull out the 5-4 win.  What was worrying was that Amherst’s wins were fairly easy and they have clear advantages at spots while Midd has to win the swing matches to take it.  When I think of Middlebury, I think of a team with a lot of steady spots but no spot where you really say “wow, that guy is the best at his position.”  You may be able to argue that their #2/3 spots are the strength of the team, but saying both are is kind of like grasping for straws.  What’s good about the Panthers team though is that they are ALWAYS in the conversation to win a match.  When you put yourself in those situations, that means you have to come up clutch to win the match.  They have two key seniors in Brantner Jones and Alex Johnston, as well as a slew of juniors that also provide some team leadership.  When you have a top 5 head coach and a team that has a good amount of upperclassmen, you’re putting yourself in good position.  Middlebury has steadily improved since the arrival of Hansen and they can currently claim they are the best team in the NESCAC.  Moving into the tournament, my X-Factor for Middlebury has got to be Alex Johnston.  “Johno” as they call him has had a year that a lot of people would probably consider mediocre.  He’s lost to Skidmore, RPI, Emory, amongst others, and overall has not had the season I would have liked.  That being said, he comes out today and handily beats Joey Fritz, showcasing his ability to take on anyone in the country.  I’ve long said that he’s got one of the prettiest games I’ve seen in a while and he certainly can beat a top guy on the right day.  We saw it today, if Johnston can take down the top guys, he puts Middlebury in a great position to pull off big wins.

#8 Amherst Lord Jeffs

Again, NESCAC and Lord Jeff fans will be mumbling and bumbling by this placement.  If these rankings were to be published, Amherst would be the team that CMS faces first in the Elite 8, something that neither of these teams want to happen.  I have Amherst as my third most likely team to beat CMS and that is based all off of their talent.  The Guru had mentioned that Herst was a huge wild card moving into the NCAA tournament, but we’re starting to learn a bit more about them with today’s match against Middlebury and will learn more next week at NESCACs as well.  Let’s also remember that Amherst has usually played their best tennis in the NCAAs (does anyone else notice that trend with some of our big programs?) and I doubt that any of the other #1 seeds would take Amherst lightly.  Despite being well-known for their depth, I’m really unsure if Herst really has the same talent as CMS on paper as The Guru mentioned.  Amherst needs to use the NESCAC tournament to find their game and be a dominating force like we all thought they should be.  Right now, they’re going to be included with the “Other #1 Seeds” until further notice.  When I take a look at the Amherst lineup, there seems to be some void in the middle of the lineup.  If you remember, Yaraghi was supposed to be a surefire #2 – now he’s a surefire #5.  That’s a big difference in expectations right there and they currently have Dale playing #2.  I’ve had enough of putting this team on a pedestal because of their depth.  The singles lineup runs 6 to 7 players deep in the NCAA tournament and that’s what we have to look at when we grade them.  Is their singles lineup that much better than a Middlebury, Hopkins, Emory, CMU?  It’s really tough to say.  This is a team that has had its own fair share of NCAA disappointments as well, so it’s not like we can just say they’ll turn up their game no matter what.  For the X-Factor, it’s really tough to say and I don’t think any player is the true x-factor.  However, I think what’s most important is desire and the will to win.  Why do I say that?  For some reason, I think Amherst has an extra gear.  One that can really propel them to tap into their talent and take the next step like Williams did last year and many national champions did.  If they can tap into this and have one of those days where nothing goes wrong, this could be your national champion.  Whether it happens or not is the burning question.

#9 Case Western Spartans

You just gotta love the Spartans.  A team that was nowhere near the national scene just four years ago is a clear #9 team and will be the first second seed in the tournament.  This is a team that has arguably some of the best development in Division III with Coach Todd and certainly has a lot of passion for each other when they play.  Consistent messages and motivational tools are used for every year and the players certainly buy into whatever system is put in place at Case.  Case has made strides again this year, but the thing is they have only truly beaten Kenyon this year.  They’ve had chances against Emory, CMU, Wash U and Trinity TX, but have not come through in any of those chances.  It’s starting to feel like maybe next year will be the next step and this team will breakthrough to the final top 8.  Although hard work and team chemistry is a big part of the equation, talent is still another part of the equation and I’m unsure if Case has an argument against some of the “Other #1 seeds.”  As of right now, Case faces a tough draw to get into the final 8 as all of the top teams are looking pretty good right now.  On the flip side, every #1 seed does not want to see Case in their bracket because they have the greatest upset potential.  With the regular formula of great doubles and workmanlike singles, Case certainly has the chance to prove me wrong.   This team reminds me of a team that has to “count wins.” What I mean is with every close match, there are definitely no sure things for them and it depends on the day if they can scrap out the 5 wins they need.   In my mind, Case hasn’t proven they can beat all of the second tier teams (Pomona, Whitman, etc, etc) because they simply haven’t played them.  That’s what happens when you don’t take a Spring Break in California – you just don’t get enough opportunities to prove yourself against everybody.  They wanted a signature win and they got it with Kenyon (who I will get into later) but can you really say that they’re in the #3-8 group?  No, you can’t.  As with most things, it’s a gradual process to the top.  In terms of players, D3Central has harped on their potential weakness at #3 doubles as well as some potential issues with the bottom of the lineup, where there has been some shuffling.  That being said, they have one of the best #1’s in the country and a very good #2 player in Drougas.  A big reason why they haven’t broken through against the top dogs is because both doubles and the top of the lineup are very variable.  There are days where top players on top teams might just step up big and there’s not much you can do about it (see Johnston of Midd vs. Fritz of Herst).  It’s a tightrope that they walk every match against the best and it’s unfortunate that they’ve faltered this year in that respect.  For NCAA’s, their X-Factor has to be the bottom of the lineup. It’s a bit of a cop out yes, but it makes sense.  They have a very good #1 and #2 doubles team but a 50/50 #3 doubles team.  All of their spots #4-#6 have been iffy as well, as they’ve gone a whopping 1-15 against teams in the top 8.  That’s not a recipe for success.  However, they have two weeks to really train and get up for nationals, and don’t discount the work that Coach Todd and these boys can do in this time.

#10 Kenyon Lords

It’s a real heartbreaker that Kenyon, a team that just got swept by Depauw earlier today, is in the top 10 as of right now.  There are no arguments in which they shouldn’t be in the Top 10 based on how they’ve been ranked all year, so don’t expect a sudden change from the ITA committee.  Kenyon has had a really tough year all around, both on the court and off the court.  Despite what you may think, the morale on this team might be higher than expected even with the departure of Razumovsky.  However, it really isn’t that simple to just come back from your top player quitting the team.  I really have to question why Raz went off and did that but he probably doesn’t read the blog anymore anyways.  Players quitting is not something that happens everyday and I don’t respect someone that left their teammates out to dry.  Enough about what happened, what can this Lords team look forward to for the rest of the season?  They’ve successfully avoided the so-called Black Hole as they’ve been able to beat CLU and Depauw twice, but that’s not enough to make an Elite 8.  They have a real thoroughbred in Wade Heerboth at #1 and a very solid Sam Geier at #2, but the rest is question marks.  Doubles now is a massive question mark with their pitiful performance in today’s NCAC championship.  A lot of Kenyon’s hopes to upset one of these #1 seeds laid in the possibility they could put it together and get the great equalizer that is a doubles sweep.  No longer can they count on that after today’s performance.  I think its basically a given that Kenyon will have to upset someone by the score of 5-4.  This immediately becomes a team that has to count points and that starts with Heerboth at the top.  He needs to go into overdrive and win every one of his matches at #1 singles and #2 doubles to have a chance.  For the NCAA’s, the X-Factor here has to be that of Tim Rosensteel.  Playing #1 doubles with his longtime teammate Sam Geier, they have become a very formidable #1 team.  They are almost a must-win with the weakness that Kenyon is showing at doubles.  In singles, the drop-off begins at Rosensteel if he can’t find a #3 caliber game.  He’s an explosive player with big ground strokes, so don’t discount him on the right day.  All it takes is a match to get hot, and if he can lessen the drop off between him and Geier you could see this team pull off an upset.  Stranger things have happened, but this is the guy that needs to step up and give his team a much needed confidence boost.

Final Scenario Thoughts

Again, this is just a scenario in the rankings that I came up with so I could get you guys to think out of the box.  There is a clear #1 and #2 in my opinion and then the rest of the #1 seeds are really all grouped together, battling it out.  It’s telling that Hopkins/Emory split, Hopkins beat CMU, Emory beat Midd, and Midd beat Amherst.  These teams are all right there with different formulas to win, but they all seem to be in the same boat.  Who gets hot in the NCAA’s is the real question here?  Will it be a team with spunk and confidence like Emory?  Or a team dying to prove itself like Hopkins and CMU?  Or how about your general powers like Middlebury and Amherst?  What if a lower ranked team gets hot like Case or Kenyon?  There are a lot of questions in NCAAs and no matter what, the Elite 8 should be a real treat.  Trinity TX is a real wild card in this scenario as well because you could arguably place them in any ranking from the #3-#8 spot and say that that is where they should be placed.  You’ll see that flexibility in my alternate scenario.  Speaking of which, here it is.

Alternate Scenario – Most Likely Scenario

#1 CMS Stags

#2 Wash U Bears

#3 Johns Hopkins Jays

#4 CMU Tartans

#5 Emory Eagles

#6 Middlebury Panthers

#7 Amherst Lord Jeffs

#8 Trinity TX Tigers

#9 Case Western Spartans

#10 Kenyon Lords

In this scenario, we go truly on H2H matches and Trinity TX gets shafted because of where they finished last year and who they’ve played this year.  Wins count bigger than losses in this scenario (not like the SAT, ha) and that is why Hopkins rules at #3.  They’ve split against Emory, who’s beaten Midd, and beaten CMU H2H as well.  This is my most likely scenario because the ITA committee has put Trinity TX below a lot of these teams for the balance of the year and I would think they wouldn’t change their formula now.  However, it could happen and I wanted to explain before y’all went crazy.  TU has every right to complain about this scenario because they get that dreaded #8 seed that has to most likely play #9 Case Western and ALSO play #1 CMS if they move through.  What a bad break.  If I were the ITA committee, I’d use the first scenario – it penalizes Amherst because they truly haven’t beaten anyone this year within the top 10 and makes them prove it.  In this scenario above, it feels to me like the tiebreakers being used are last year’s rankings.  That makes no sense to me, but it’s the way of the world today.  It’ll be interesting when rankings come out after conference tournaments and we can really make out who’s playing who in our bracketology.  Anyways, that was a long-winded article but I hope you enjoyed my in-depth thoughts on each of these teams.  Now, time to fake proofread this thing and go enjoy another beautiful day.  ASouth, OUT.

6 thoughts on “D3ASouth’s Top 10 Thoughts, Rankings, and Scenarios

  1. hello@gmail.com

    Understand the situation at hand before slating people for making a decision you disagree with. To my knowledge, it’s a miracle that only 1 person has quit the team although I have heard more are to follow.

    1. D3AtlanticSouth

      Could you please elaborate so I can understand? Would love to know more, and if it is a great reason then i will definitely retract my comments. I find it very hard to believe considering college players should be adults. I doubt that a situation was something that couldn’t be maturely talked over with Coach Thielke and the coaching staff. They have a reputation for a great program. I am a believer that talking solves a lot of issues if there are any. Not quitting.

      That being said, I could be wrong.

    2. Anonymous

      Raz flunked a drug test. Rumors done.

      1. D3AtlanticSouth

        I certainly hope that it’s not a miracle only 1 person has quit and there are more to follow if this is true.

  2. NE

    This article is really harsh on the Northeast teams. You’re putting too much stake in the Emory-Midd result…Emory is a notoriously difficult place to play (i.e. Hopkins 7-2 loss), and the match was early in Midd’s season. If the match is played at a neutral site in May, Midd probably wins 7/10 times.

    Furthermore, you conveniently ignore the fact that Amherst has beaten both Hopkins and Carnegie Mellon…on the road! I know these results were in the fall, but they should still be taken into consideration.

    Overall, there’s a ton of regional bias against the Northeast. Don’t forget that NE teams have won three of the four past NCAA titles, indicating that these teams tend to hit their stride later in the season.

    1. D3AtlanticSouth

      I was going for how the rankings will most likely look like in ITA. The ITA Committee cannot say “Emory is a tough place to play and Middlebury will win 7 of 10 times” when they rank the teams, they have to go off of results. The fact of the matter is, Emory has beaten Middlebury.

      Re: Fall Matches – last year, fall matches were ignored when Amherst lost to Carnegie Mellon and Hopkins and finished #3 in the country. I didn’t “conveniently ignore” them, I based this on how it has been done in the past. There was no Northeast bias when those matches were ignored last year.

      I wouldn’t say there is a lot of Northeast bias from us. We’ve consistently said that the Northeast has been the second best region outside of the West the past 4-5 years, and we’re well aware that Amherst has been a national power. I said in my article that Amherst has a knack for bringing it in the NCAA tournament – however that does not mean I should rank them higher because of it. Not to mention, I name Middlebury and Amherst the 2nd and 3rd most likely teams to upset CMS. I respect these teams but with the results that have occurred this year, this is how it’s probably going to turn out.

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