D3ASouth’s Elite 8 Thoughts

Screen Shot 2013-05-17 at 1.38.27 PM

 

With the Elite 8 coming up in just a couple of days, and D3Tennis’ thoughts on the quarterfinals already a few days old, I wanted to refresh all of your memories and go through each team.  All of you probably know I have Williams to win it all, but that does not even come close to guaranteeing they’ll win it with a field this close.  Most of the teams should be in Kalamazoo by now, and I know for a fact a few of them are.  Overall, I think the Elite 8 is going to be a doozy.  Literally every single match is going to be a close one, EVEN CMS vs Middlebury (you’ll see).  As D3Tennis mentioned, each team has a ton of NCAA experience, and they’re all here to win it.  In my eyes, there are really 3 favorites.  That would be CMS, Williams, and Amherst.  I view these three teams as a classic Russian Roulette – they’ll beat each other purely based on who has the better day.  This is the main reason why I think Williams will win, because they won’t have to go through a CMS or an Amherst to make it to that final.  We all saw very well last year how conditioning plays a huge part at NCAA’s, with Pottish struggling at the end and Goodwin totally checked out.  Those were the two best players in DIII, and they turned out to be weaknesses for their team in the final.  Conserving your energy is key here, so we definitely will have a better idea of who will be rested going into the final.  Other than those 3, I view Kenyon, Trinity, and Emory to be the second tier teams that could pull one upset.  Rounding out the 8 would be proud teams in Wash U and Middlebury, who I think have very little shot at making the finals, but could really shake things up.  I’ll go team-by-team strengths and weaknesses, as well as an X-Factor player because I love giving individuals some love and maybe some added pressure.

Claremont-Mudd-Scripps Stags

So, word on the street is that one Warren Wood is going to have to miss NCAAs.  If this is true, CMS’s NCAA luck isn’t even a joke anymore.  This is a serious blow to the Stags championship hopes and essentially could end them.  I had heard of his injury a couple days ago, but was waiting for some type of confirmation. We are not 100% on this, but it seems to be true.  Without Wood, the pressure will go on the Stag’s strength, which is doubles and the bottom of their singles lineup.  They’ve only been down in doubles to one team this whole year – that being Williams.  The onus really falls on how they’ll start off matches now considering they can’t rely simply on singles now that Wood could be out.  This also puts a ton of pressure on whoever replaces him in the doubles lineup.  I have 0 knowledge about what lineup they’ll throw out there, but we’ll get a better idea against Middlebury and to be honest, they shouldn’t have a problem.  However, when they face the more talented teams, they’ll start to have some trouble taking leads into the singles flights because they are at a disadvantage at 1 most likely.  At the bottom of the singles lineup, they’ll still be incredibly strong.  Butts, Johnson, and Kotrappa are all strong 4-6’s.  The areas where I have barely any faith is the top.  Dorn at 1, Marino at 2, and the senior Lane at 3 are all shaky positions when it comes to the best of the best.  Dorn has struggled a bit as of late, and Lane has a history of coming up small in the NCAA tournament.  If they are to win this whole thing, it’ll be because those top 3 players stepped up big time.  Coach Settles is going to need to do an amazing PR job to keep his team from letting those NCAA memories creep into their heads, especially with the loss of Wood.  This is where everything you’ve doubted all season becomes magnified, especially if you are playing up in the lineup.  Does CMS have the ability to keep their roll going?  Or will they succumb to pressure again?

X-Factor: My X-Factor for CMS has to be Neel Kotrappa.  The fall ITA winner will now be thrust into a very important 6 singles role, where he will have the talent to beat anyone.  However, he hasn’t played a competitive singles match in a while and now he’s at NCAAs.  Not only that, he’ll be playing a very important spot in doubles (wherever he is) and will be counted on for multiple wins one of these days if CMS is going to win.  If Kotrappa can catch fire again, watch for CMS to take home the championship.  NO pressure.

 

Middlebury Panthers

Middlebury seems to be the only team that people are not giving a chance to in this tournament.  That’s an oversight and a shame.  Many of the writers and probably many of you picked Hopkins to beat them, and they went out and made the match a no contest.  Whether that be the coaching of Hansen or the fight of the players, they should not be overlooked.  Take a look – they’ve got their former #1 Brantner Jones playing at 2, where he routinely beat Andy Hersh.  They’ve got the senior Lunghino at 4, who was up in the third set against Erik Lim in the sweet 16.  He also delivered an easy win at 2 doubles.  They have one of the best coaches in DIII, maybe the best.  Not to mention they easily swept Hopkins in doubles.  You know those teams that surprise you in the Men’s BBall tournament?  That is Middlebury.  A hard working team that does the little things well, and can surprise you on a given day.  What Middlebury does is fight in doubles, and if they can take a lead, they are dangerous.  Let’s note they were up 2-1 on Williams and swept Hopkins in the past two weeks.  Oh, and the only team to beat CMS doubles was… Williams.  Don’t count this team out.  The Panthers strength in singles has to be the middle of their lineup.  I’m really focusing in on the #2 and #4 slots, which are filled by Jones and Lunghino.  Lunghino has been a very consistent winner all year, and he has a ton more experience than most #4 players do.  Jones came through with a very strong season at #2 this year, and was a pretty decent 1 last year.  Middlebury tries to get its strengths in order and really grind out the rest of the matches.  Unfortunately, their weakness is their lack of true top notch talent compared to the rest of the field.  I don’t believe the other spots can raise their game enough to make a run, and that’s really unfortunate.  However, there’s a reason why only 1 team can be called champion.

X-Factor: This is going to seem boring, but the X-Factor for the Panthers has to be Coach Bob Hansen.  If anyone can will their team to the championship, it’s gonna have to be Hansen.  His savvy and his ability to in-game coach is almost rivaled by no one in the DIII landscape, and all you need is a weak-minded opponent and a strong-headed coach on your side to turn the tables.  Guess what?  CMS is first on their slate.

 

Amherst Lord Jeffs

The Jeffs have still gone pretty overlooked on the national scene this year, probably because Coach Garner only emphasizes post-season play.  To me, the Amherst freshmen are no longer freshmen at this point.  They’ve had storied junior careers.  They’ve been in dogfights where they’ve come out on the bottom and they’ve been through a NESCAC tournament to boot.  Amherst’s best asset is their ability to boast that every single player on their team knows how to win.  This is a far departure from some of the other teams in the tournament.  It’s clear to me the strength of the Amherst lineup is the fact that you are not going to blow any of them out.  That leaves them in a great position, as they have the experience to beat you no matter what position you’re at.  When the going gets tough, are you going to want a player that’s been there already or a player who’s been bailed out by his teammates wins?  Amherst can say they have the more experienced player in most cases.  Not to mention, they’re above average talent and depth keep them fresh and keep them going toe-to-toe with every team here.  Amherst will come at you swinging and will wait as your weak spots start to falter. We all know how much pressure it is to play while some of your teammates are down a set and a break.  That’s when younger players start to press and there is always a sense that you are going to lose.  To me, whenever a team starts “counting wins,” that’s a good indicator of when they are starting to lose hope.  You all know what I’m talking about.  It’s when you take a look at the singles matches and say, “Okay I think we can take 1, 4, and 5.” In your team’s heart, you know it’s a longshot.  That’s what Amherst does to you.  They bring their above average talent and scratch you until you die from blood loss.  With a team that features a few national champions and rising youth, this may be the team to beat.  If you are going to beat Amherst, you need to take a lead against their doubles, which has been semi-inconsistent this year.  There are a few teams in the Elite 8 I can see taking doubles leads.  From then on, you need to beat them at the top.  Amherst is the deepest team in the nation.  They are not the most top-heavy.  All top 3 guys (Fritz, Kahan, Yaraghi) have shown the potential of losing.  If you take them at the top, you’ve got a great shot.

X-Factor: Andrew Yaraghi.  The young freshman will be thrown into the fire, starting at #2 doubles and #3 singles.  He’ll go against Wagner, Lane, and Sun (projected) in a grueling trio of matches.  Does he have the conditioning and the desire to get through all 3?  These guys are considered the best in their positions and they know what it takes in NCAAs.  Yaraghi can only experience and learn right away.  If he does that, Amherst could be looking at their 2nd title in 3 years.

 

Emory Eagles

I’ve been telling everyone not to count the Eagles out of this tournament.  You know, the tournament they’ve made the Final 4 in probably over 90% of the last decade.  They’ve got a coach who has seen every possible match, every possible gamestyle, and coached a ton of national championship teams.  Also, they’ve got an assistant coach who was the best player in DIII for four years (Goodwin) and that “we can beat anyone” attitude.  Not to mention a taste of the national championship last year and the desire to get them to another one.  We’re well aware the strong spots of the Eagles are the positions from 3-6.  Wagner, Mosetick, Kahler (senior) and Adams are potentially top 3 players at their positions.  In my opinion, Wagner is the best 3 in the nation as of right now.  Mosetick is probably top 2, and Kahler and Adams are potentially top 3.  They count on easy wins down at the bottom, and coach up the top and doubles in the hopes of stealing matches from the best.  Plus, I think Emory has a case at the most hungry team in the Elite 8.  I’ve never seen a group of national title defenders that are this hungry.  They came out firing against NCW and Tyler last week, and although those teams aren’t Amherst and CMS, they’re still amazingly solid teams.  Emory lost 1 match total in their so called brutal region.  The reason why that is – Emory is filled with winners.  Do you remember the last time an Emory player cared about your feelings?  The answer is never, and that’s how you win in a competitive sport.  They share that team bond with each other, and I’m sure they’d run through walls for their teammates.  Not every team can say that.  Where teams can get Emory, however, is their doubles play and top of the lineup.  When I saw Emory play recently on their home courts, it was unbelievably uncomfortable to watch them play doubles.  They’ve historically played what I would call “Singles Doubles” in which they try and baseline you out of the match.  Now that worked when you had Goodwin at 1 and Pottish/Egan at 3.  Will it work with a weaker 1 and two fairly random guys at 2 doubles?  We shall see.

X-Factor: Issacs/Bajoria.  This out-of-the-blue #2 doubles team now faces a ton of scrutiny in the Elite 8.  It’s very hard to get by with lesser players in your doubles spots, no matter how much of specialists they are.  There have to be flaws in these guys that can be exploited, whether they are playing next to each other or on the exhibition singles court.  However, they’ve had a great run of late and are a legitimate two doubles team.  If they can face the pressure and steal a couple of matches, Emory can use their firepower at the bottom of the lineup and come up with a 5-4 upset somewhere.

 

Kenyon Lords

The Lords are kind of like the Pacers in basketball.  They are a blue collar team that works and works and works until something gets better.  You’ll all remember last year when you guys were counting Kenyon out.  Well, one point away from a sweep and you potentially get your 2012 National Champions.  We are here now with people counting Kenyon out, which is obviously a mistake. Their biggest strength is their heart, and that stems from their emotional senior leaders, CJ Williams and Paul Burgin.  These two players instill heart, work ethic, and a winning attitude into the rest of the team.  They take criticism well and are able to back it up on the court.  Not to mention, it seems as if Razumovsky and Heerboth have really been open to the demands of the Kenyon tennis life.  What they’ll do is take people’s Wash U’s predictions and most likely shove it right back into their faces (me being one of them).  Logistics-wise, their strengths are at the middle of the singles lineup, specifically flights 2-4.  The Raz/Heerboth/CJ combo will need to provide the energy they can as well as the wins to get Kenyon through a tough Wash U team and potentially Williams.  Other than that, Kenyon loves to grind out the matches and outwork you, especially at the bottom of the lineup with Huber/whoever the hell else you want at the helm.  The Lords weaknesses are in doubles, that is for sure.  This is a team that has well-documented doubles problems, and teams that are weakened in doubles are huge upset indicators.  Doubles provides the energy, variance, and simply the upper hand.  Can Kenyon repeat last years performance as well as their performance against Case to come away with dubs victories?  I’m not so sure.  But, if they are able to take leads in doubles, I have no doubt in their abilities to at least split with the best teams in singles.  They’ll just need to avoid a matchup with their nemesis, CMS, considering they got beat 9-0 last time in an ugly one.

X-Factor: Paul Burgin.  Obviously, Burgin is well-known across the country.  His will is undocumented, as we can see from his rise to #1 singles from a 6 singles spot 3 years ago.  However, sometimes he is overmatched against the best #1s in the country, putting his team in a bit of a hole.  If he can steal a match or two against Putterman, Meyer, Wood/Dorn, etc, Kenyons got a hell of shot against anyone.  Oh, and not to mention, he’s playing #1 doubles now too.

 

Washington University Bears

The Bears are the model of success for a Division III Tennis team.  They combine great coaching with both talent and desire, and in the end, the output is a team that always makes NCAAs and almost always makes the Elite 8.  They’ve got a nice little Final Four run going, and I’m signed up as one of the believers in their streak.  I’ve noted Coach Follmer as one of my top 5 coaches going into the year, and he’s proved that again this year with the Bears’ ability to get the most out of their players.  One funny thing about the Bears is that they have rotated strengths this year.  However, there has been one rock solid strength, and that would be their best player, Adam Putterman.  Putterman is one of the best players in the country, and he’s also one of the biggest gamers in the country.  He backs down from absolutely no one, and has the fire to win that championship he deserves.  I have him at an advantage against almost every player left in the tournament, other than maybe Skinner of Trinity Texas.  He’s been through it all.  The other strengths that we can see now are seniors Parizher and Farah at the bottom of the lineup.  Just last year, these two were playing at #2 and #4, respectively, on a Final 4 team.  Now at 5 and 6, they’ve got to be considered strengths.  Both players have come on as of late and come up with big wins, highlighted by Parizher’s clincher against Emory at UAAs.  The last remaining strength for the Bears has to be at #1 doubles, where the Putt-Putts have been playing lights out.  I think the Wash U weaknesses are really in the middle of the singles lineup, and at the bottom of the doubles lineup.  They’ve always been able to mix and match in doubles, but they rely heavily on Parizher at 3 dubs, and Farah at 2.  Plus, they are not the most fundamental of doubles teams.  In singles, the trio of Putterman/Noack/Kratky scares me a bit with lack of experience, and lack of consistency as well.  All 3 have the potential to be overwhelmed here in Kalamazoo.  Overall, I think Wash U has the great ability to pull an upset over Kenyon, but won’t be able to once they get to those top notch teams in Williams and CMS/Amherst.

X-Factor: Ross Putterman.  Everyone has doubted Ross Putterman, and the sophomore has to have a lot of bulletin board material at his disposal.  This is a talented kid who can take out some good 2s, and can really roll off momentum from doubles.  He’s a big kid who can ride his serve and forehand to wins, so watch out if he catches fire.

 

Trinity Texas Tigers

As D3TG and D3Tennis have mentioned, the Tigers are the team that brings the best development to the Elite 8 scene.  They have almost no top top recruits, yet every year they get guys that surprise us.  This year, it happened to be Aaron Skinner working the fall ITAs to win the National Championship.  One of  their biggest strengths is their doubles, as they’ve always based their success on their doubles play.  With the ability to sweep anyone due to their amazing fundamental play, the Tigers would normally have great chances at upsetting unsuspected Elite 8 teams.  Unfortunately, they are playing Williams, but that is beside the point.  The Tigers are also probably one of the loudest teams in the nation, and they always get support from out-of-towners that love TU Tennis.  That’s a great boon for your emotional doubles play, and it’s a big reason as to why they’ve been successful over the years.  The Tigers like to overwhelm you with emotions and fundamental doubles before you even know what they just hit you with.  In addition to doubles, they have a very solid top 4, but nothing spectacular.  Skinner is their main highlight, but he just lost a set to Donkena and has really not played to national champion level as of late.  Whether that be because of his early season injury or just people catching up to him, he’s definitely not the lock he was early in the year.  That being said, I would rather have the national champion in singles than not, so this is obviously a strength.  Other than that, however, the rest of the TU lineup is somewhat underwhelming.  Although they did put the beatdown on Gustavus, we aren’t going to find any GAC lineups in the Elite 8.  This is always where talent seems to catch up to the Tigers, which is really a damn shame.  Personally, I think Trinity really got unlucky with their Elite 8 matchup, but the draw is what it is.  Maybe they can surprise the Williams team with energy (I might have messed that up for them) but every team is going to be ready for them at this point.  I don’t see them getting past the first round, but it’ll be fun for anyone that’s at the Zoo to see them play.

X-Factor: Erick DelaFuente.  This senior is on his last run as a Tiger, and I know he has utmost pride in his tennis game.  He plays a grind it out style at 4 singles, and is really one of the biggest fighters in DIII.  Not to mention great doubles and a great attitude.  If DelaFuente can inspire his team to come out big in doubles and steal a match at 4, he could really mess things up for these other Elite8 teams.  He definitely has the desire and game to do so.

 

Williams Ephs

Last but not least, my favorite for the NCAA tournament.  The reason why I pick Williams is clear – they’ve got a senior loaded lineup, tons of experience, play great doubles, and have an awesome attitude.  Williams comes out firing in doubles almost every time, and they have a senior All American at every single spot in the doubles lineup in Meyer, Sun, and Chow.  They’re almost impossible to sweep, which leaves them very immune to big time upsets.  It also puts them at a great advantage when they will most likely take a 2-1 lead on you.  In singles, they feature a strong 2-6 that have all played in big matches in their lifetimes.  Micheli has really come on as of late at 2 singles, allowing the Ephs to place the struggling Sun at 3 where he has beaten a ton of players.  In fact, I believe he has beaten Lane back in the day, which could come in handy.  Weiss and Chow at 4 and 5 are beacons of consistency, and it looks like the returning senior Page has been asked to fill the void at 6.  When it comes down to it, we know that senior power is key.  But talent is also key, and it’s not like Williams doesn’t have enough of that.  Each one of these guys has won a big match before, and they’re considered one of the most clutch teams in the nation.  Chow has come up huge on national TV (kind of) before, saving match points against CMS in the Elite 8.  If they had one weakness, it’s probably got to be their vulnerability to a hot streak.  Amherst and CMS have the ability to beat them because Williams isn’t THAT much better than you at every position.  They simply go about their business and hope their above average skill beats you.  When they play more aggressive teams that are prone to catching fire, they start to falter if momentum shifts.  We saw this earlier this year in a loss to Amherst and CLU, both teams with high powered talent.  However, I simply do not think that Williams will be denied the national championship that I believe they deserve.

X-Factor: Felix Sun. This guy has got to step it up right away if he wants to take pressure off of Williams star performers.  Playing at 3, he should be a top 2 player there.  He’ll have to go against some of the best 3s in Heerboth, Lane, Yaraghi, or Wagner, so he’ll be challenged.  These spots are going to be swing matches, and I would expect the crafty senior they call “The Magician” to pull out those last tricks he has.

 

Recap – My Match by Match Breakdown

CMS over Middlebury, 5-2. Wins at 2 and 3 doubles, and 3, 5, and 6 singles for CMS

Amherst over Emory, 5-3. Wins at 1 and 2 doubles, and 1, 2, and 5 singles for Amherst.

Wash U over Kenyon, 5-4. Wins at 1 and 3 doubles, and 1, 5, and 6 singles for Wash U

Williams over Trinity TX, 5-2. Wins at 2 and 3 doubles, 2, 3, 5 singles for Williams.

 

Amherst over CMS, 5-3. Wins at 1 doubles, 1, 2, 3, 6 singles for Amherst.

Williams over Wash U, 5-1. Wins at 1,2,3 doubles, and 2, 3 singles for Williams.

 

Williams over Amherst, 5-4.  Wins at 1, 3 doubles, and `1, 3, 5 singles for Williams. Chow clinches.

8 thoughts on “D3ASouth’s Elite 8 Thoughts

  1. Anonymous

    Does anyone else think that the commentator for live streaming is awful?

  2. Anonymous

    If weather pushes this tournament inside over the next couple days (highly possible) that could be a huge advantage for Middlebury/Amherst/Williams vs CMS. And an advantage for the Midwest teams of course as well.

    1. facilities

      word out of the zoo is that the outdoor courts are pretty dirty and extremely quick, and that the indoor courts are fine, but the lighting is extremely poor

      1. Anonymous

        Poor indoor lighting…advantage Emory!!

        What teams/players could the fast courts play in favor of?

  3. nationals

    Comments:

    CMS-Yes Warren Wood is out of NCAAs. I assume they will keep the doubles lineup the same and insert former NCAA doubles finalist pereverzin in with dorn. Pretty nice when you can pull an NCAA finalist off your bench isn’t it?

    Middlebury-They get a bad rap because of the abundance of 4 stars on their current roster (8), and the inability of many of these players to reach the expectations that were given to them when the first entered school. A team with 8 4 stars should be top 5, no problem. Their near disaster loss to Tufts doesn’t help. Regardless, a talented, hard working team with great coaching, which could be the recipe to take out a CMS team that seems to be even more vulnerable than normal in May. Not making any predictions, just saying it’s a bigger possibility now.

    Amherst-Can Mark Kahan step up and be a lock at #2? He should be. He went all of last year with only 2 D3 dual match losses, and now he has looked a little vulnerable at times at #2, with losses to Worley, Micheli, and being down to Rosensteel from Stevens. Their depth is excellent, but if Kahan can step up and be a lock at 2 this team’s singles lineup begins to look semi dominant.

    Emory-You are spot on, Emory is damn good at 3-6. Ruderman is a clear weakness at 2. The only other potential weakness could be kahler at 5. He has lost to very big, deciding matches for them 6 in the third (indoor final vs Kenyon and uaa final vs wash u ). Those are big losses and you have to wonder where his head will be if it comes down to him again. Halpern is a wildcard at 1, played well at indoors, where he beat smith-dennis, skinner and burgin, but otherwise he hasn’t been great. Which guy will show up for the eagles?

    Kenyon-Burgin was the x factor according to D3Tennis last year in the quarters vs CMS, so lets see what he can do this year. I don’t think its fair to say he’s overmatched often at 1. This year the only 2 players that have done that are ballou and putterman (sucks for him he plays putterman Monday). Other than that every loss has been 3 sets. To me Williams, heerboth and raz are all xfactors, because for this team to win they are all at must win spots in singles and doubles.

    Wash u-Parizher should be the best 5 in the country. This kid played a good 2 last year, and now is at 5?? What is with this regression? It works well for the bears, but imagine if he was playing as well as last year at 2, and could push everyone down a spot, that becomes scary. Adam putterman is a big time player, and a national title favorite outside of ballou in my eyes. The kid has a massive serve and forehand, and has great heart. Huge fan of this guy. Good kid too. Let’s see what he can put together for his last run.

    Trinity-Team with great heart and fight. Delafuente really shouldn’t be losing much at 4, but it depends which players shows up. He can be streaky. Haugen took some good 2s to close matches, so I would think he would play a good 3. I would normally call for him as a potential singles winner, but he goes up against felix sun, and I don’t see him beating the magician. Overall, Williams can match their desire, and just has too much talent

    Williams-Yes sun did beat lane back in the day, back in Lane’s heyday (also sun’s heyday if you will). He needs to be a lock at 3 as you said. Page at 6 is interesting, and I wonder if the senior’s lack of experience will come back to hurt them. Micheli is coming on as of late but has lost many big matches for them. He lost in 3 to marino in the cms match, and he was up for a while. That would have clinched the W for them, but he went down 7-1 in the second set breaker then dropped the third. He also lost the decider in the final 4 last year 7-5 in the third to wagner, after taking the first set. Hope theses losses don’t come back to haunt him.

    While I won’t be there to watch, I’m looking forward to a great tournament, best of luck to everyone.

    1. anonymous

      Page beat CMS in that quarterfinal match 6-1 in the third to set up the Williams win at 5. Anyway, Weiss played six in the regional

  4. Anonymous

    Your comments on Burgin border on the absurd regardless if how he does this week. Look at his record over 4 years and tell me how many times he has been “overmatched.” If you can count more than a handful — which I am sure you cannot then we’ll talk.

    1. D3AtlanticSouth

      I didn’t say that he is always overmatched, I said “he sometimes is overmatched against the best #1s. He just so happens to play Putterman first round, who beat him in the fall 2 and 3. Maybe the language was too strong, but Burgin as my X-Factor basically is saying if he can be that consistent winner at #1, Kenyon’s got an unbelievable shot at a great run.

Leave a Comment